The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/28/2022 at 11:44 PM, Eric the Living Vampire said:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	57	635	10373	6.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp

0.537x of Shang-Chi T-10 (4.73M)

0.748x of Venom 2 T-10 (8.68M)

1.095x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-10 (4.93M)

2.110x of Uncharted T-10 (7.81M)

 

Adjusted Comp

3.555x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-10 (10.66M)

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	59	671	10791	6.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 36

 

Comp

0.509x of Shang-Chi T-9 (4.48M)

0.754x of Venom 2 T-9 (8.75M)

1.060x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-9 (4.77M)

2.158x of Uncharted T-9 (7.98M)

 

Adjusted Comp

3.291x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-9 (9.87M)

[Eric is Quiet]

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	265	15949	1.66%

 

Comp

0.375x of Shang-Chi T-16 (3.3M)

0.521x of No Time to Die T-16 (3.28M)

0.495x of Dune T-16 (2.53M)

0.195x of Eternals T-16 (1.85M)

0.796x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-15 (3.58M)

 

Take out the Dune and Eternals comp for a moment (the former was a PLF beast, even by current standards and the latter will see a greater jump in the days ahead), and we have about...3.4M if we round up. 3.4M using Grindelwald's IM minus the Early Access screenings, which I know is faulty considering that came out a million years ago, it gives us...28.1M.

 

However you slice it, this was a piss-poor beginning here in Philly. Things could change, but I would assume (could be wrong) Potter is a fan-driven, "get tickets first thing" kind of franchise, so this could be a bad omen.

[Joyous Legion]

Dark Phoenix comp or bust

[charlie Jatinder]

Cant say I am surprised with the result. Totally expected FB 3 to bomb after FB2 and trailer did nothing for me. 

[Porthos]

On 3/28/2022 at 11:30 PM, Porthos said:

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	89	11792	12440	648	5.21%

 

Total Showings Added Today	9
Total Seats Added Today	188
Total Seats Sold Today	36

 

T-10 Unadjusted Comps 

NOT TO BE TRUSTED - ONLY PROVIDED DUE TO NOT HAVING ANYTHING BETTER

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	167.01		23	388		0/82	13689/14077	2.76%		2352	27.55%		6.85m
SC	47.30		149	1370		0/101	15632/17002	8.06%		5847	11.08%		4.16m
LTBC	51.35		93	1262		0/156	24816/26078	4.84%		7712	8.40%		5.96m
GB:A	122.26		99	530		0/108	16263/16793	3.16%		5847	11.08%		5.50m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Sonic the Hedgehog 2 tickets have been on sale for seven days longer than Ghostbusters: Afterlife and Shang-Chi's tickets had been on sale at this point in tracking while Sonic 2's tickets have been on sale for two days longer than The Suicide Squad's tickets had been on sale.

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-10 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	54.47		62	1142		0/79	11275/12417	9.20%		4407	14.11%		4.05m
Sonic (adj)	---		34	622		0/77	9799/10421	5.97%		---	---		---

ADJUSTEMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 PRE-SALE NOTE: Sonic the Hedgehog 2 tickets have been on sale for one day longer than F9's had been at this point in tracking.

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 0.84977x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [4.1m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Detective Pikachu's tickets had been on sale five days longer than Sonic 2's have been on sale at this point in tracking.

 

Wednesday sales:    191/1700   [11.24% sold]   +18 tickets]
Thursday sales:     457/10740   [4.26% sold]   +18 tickets]
---    
Regal:        96/2943  [3.26% sold]
Matinee:    33/2066  [1.60% | 5.09% of all tickets sold]

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	92	12224	12937	713	5.51%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	497
Total Seats Sold Today	65

 

T-9 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	173.06		24	412		0/84	14323/14735	2.80%		2352	30.31%		7.10m
SC	47.79		122	1492		0/108	15995/17487	8.53%		5847	12.19%		4.21m
LTBC	52.47		97	1359		0/168	26691/28050	4.84%		7712	9.25%		6.09m
GB:A	122.93		50	580		0/116	16776/17356	3.34%		5847	12.19%		5.53m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-9 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	55.19		81	1223		0/80	11347/12570	9.73%		4407	15.32%		4.10m
Sonic (adj)	---		53	675		0/80	10243/10918	6.18%		---	---		---

ADJUSTEMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 0.87483x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [4.2m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday sales:    208/1700   [12.24% sold]   +17 tickets]
Thursday sales:      505/11237   [4.49% sold]   +48 tickets]
---    
Regal:        111/3088  [3.59% sold]
Matinee:    35/2387  [1.47% | 4.91% of all tickets sold]

Edited April 5, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 3/28/2022 at 11:31 PM, Porthos said:

 

Morbius Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	22278	23855	1577	6.61%

 

Total Showings Added Today	27
Total Seats Added Today	2414
Total Seats Sold Today	225

 

T-3 Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	176.20		144	895		0/100	15314/16209	5.52%		2352	67.05%		7.22m
SC	57.53		335	2741		0/156	19111/21852	12.54%		5847	26.97%		5.06m
LTBC	51.93		576	3037		0/216	28173/31210	9.73%		7712	20.45%		6.02m
ET	45.88		397	3437		0/118	13711/17148	20.04%		6409	24.61%		4.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Morbius' current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:     261/6633  [3.93% sold]
Matinee:    96/2114  [4.54% | 6.09% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Since I spent a decent part of the day shitting on Morbius's day yesterday, only fair to note that I am reasonably pleased with today's total.  Well, relatively speaking.  Can't even say it "staunched the bleeding", as the Shang-Chi comp actually increased a smidge. 

 

Could be a dead cat bounce of course.  Still, decent enough day, at least compared to what it's been doing.

 

Morbius Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	181	22143	24048	1905	7.92%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	193
Total Seats Sold Today	328

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	179.38		167	1062		0/105	15390/16452	6.46%		2352	80.99%		7.35m
SC	58.10		490	3279		0/183	21325/24604	13.33%		5847	32.58%		5.11m
LTBC	50.73		718	3755		0/241	29214/32969	11.39%		7712	24.70%		5.88m
ET	48.44		496	3933		0/130	14226/18159	21.66%		6409	29.72%		4.60m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Morbius' current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:      325/6633  [4.90% sold]
Matinee:    104/2114  [4.92% | 5.46% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

The rebounding continues (IMO, at least).

[Porthos]

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	146	21739	22057	318	1.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

318

 

Day One Comps

USE WITH CAUTION - PROBABLY VERY UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	57.40		554	554		0/92	15096/15650	3.54%		5847	5.44%		5.05m
NTTD	114.80		277	277		0/132	19954/20231	1.37%		7712	4.12%		7.12m
Dune	80.71		394	394		0/74	11255/11649	3.38%		2915	10.91%		4.12m
GB:A	159.80		199	199		0/104	15788/15987	1.24%		3034	10.48%		7.19m
Morbius	86.65		367	367		0/124	17244/17611	2.08%		—-			—-

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***

FB3 = 0.41006x FB2 at the same sources of tracking at Day 1 [3.4m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018 to 2022.

   

Regal:     58/5540  [1.05% sold]
Matinee:    13/2688  [0.48% | 4.09% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Oooooof.

 

No way to really sugarcoat it.

 

I'm in a hurry so other thoughts later except to note that instead of adjusting the FB2 comp by 85% (due to Sacto having a larger share of the current DOM than it did in 2019) I'm ad-hocking it by 90% to try to capture ticket price raises.  It's an extremely adhoc comp anyway, so I can't say I care all that much.  The 40% of FB1's first day is much more noteworthy.  Especially since FB2 started at T-30 and this is starting at T-16.

 

 

Edited March 31, 2022 by Porthos

[Noctis]

I still don't expect presales to pick up in the US until after its international release next week.

[XXR & Friends]

What are we thinking the IM will be for Morbius? 7-8x?

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

Sony is really trying to undermine with that 33M projection so that they can come out:

 

MORBIUS EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS. 

[Brainbug]

45 minutes ago, KnucklesXXR said:

What are we thinking the IM will be for Morbius? 7-8x?

[YM!]

While there’s still a few weeks to go, the weak start for Dumbledore doesn’t surprise. I have been have a gut feeling for the past few months now it’d be more akin to Dark Phoenix/Allegiant but a higher DOM total.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-2	Morbius	Jacksonville	6	70	11,521	463	94	4.02%
		Phoenix	6	48	9,045	495	107	5.47%
		Raleigh	8	39	5,228	460	96	8.80%
	Morbius Total		20	157	25,794	1,418	297	5.50%
T-8	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	74	13	7.86%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	54	0	25.96%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	25	0	9.58%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	153	13	10.84%
T-9	Ambulance	Jacksonville	6	14	2,457	2	2	0.08%
		Phoenix	6	12	2,426	5	5	0.21%
		Raleigh	6	8	1,000	8	8	0.80%
	Ambulance Total		18	34	5,883	15	15	0.25%
T-9	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	37	5,419	139	30	2.57%
		Phoenix	6	22	3,740	175	14	4.68%
		Raleigh	8	24	3,273	160	9	4.89%
	Sonic Total		20	83	12,432	474	53	3.81%

 

Morbius T-2 comps

 - Eternals - .47x (4.47m)

 - SC - .677x (5.96m)

 - Venom 2 - .7x (8.11m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.94 (7.96m)

 - Dune - .94x (4.8m)

 

Sonic 2 T-9 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Uncharted - 1.18x (4.35m)

 - F9 - .55x (3.9m)

 - Lost City - 2.68x (6.69m)

(Still no good comps, just using what I have)

 

Sonic 2 EA T-8 comp

 - Sing 2 EA - .5x

 - No Time to Die EA - .98x

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-1	Morbius	Jacksonville	6	70	11,521	549	86	4.77%
		Phoenix	7	53	9,678	605	110	6.25%
		Raleigh	8	39	5,228	577	117	11.04%
	Morbius Total		21	162	26,427	1,731	313	6.55%
T-15	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	53	10,314	101	94	0.98%
		Phoenix	6	43	8,541	114	109	1.33%
		Raleigh	7	37	4,715	146	140	3.10%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		19	133	23,570	361	343	1.53%
T-7	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	83	9	8.81%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	54	0	25.96%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	25	0	9.58%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	162	9	11.48%
T-8	Ambulance	Jacksonville	6	14	2,457	4	2	0.16%
		Phoenix	6	12	2,426	7	2	0.29%
		Raleigh	8	10	1,163	8	0	0.69%
	Ambulance Total		20	36	6,046	19	4	0.31%
T-8	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	37	5,419	147	8	2.71%
		Phoenix	6	22	3,740	195	20	5.21%
		Raleigh	8	25	3,364	172	12	5.11%
	Sonic Total		20	84	12,523	514	40	4.10%

 

Morbius T-1 comps

 - Eternals - .51x (4.81m)

 - SC - .701x (6.22m)

 - Venom 2 - .655x (7.59m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.81 (7.41m)

 - Dune - .98x (5.01m)

 

Pretty good day for Morbius.  I was hoping the comps would be converging better by now, but I guess these comps had a few different presales patterns.   Right now I would guess something close to 6m, but we'll find out soon enough.

 

Sonic 2 T-8 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Ghostbusters - .94x (3.89m)

 - Uncharted - 1.18x (4.35m)

 - F9 - .57x (4.05m)

 - Lost City - 3.06x (7.65m)

(Still waiting for my younger audience movie comps to kick in)

 

Sonic 2 EA T-7 comp

 - Sing 2 EA - .5x

 - No Time to Die EA - .981x

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-15 comps

 - Shang Chi - .62x (5.48m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.24x (5.15m)

 - NTTD - 1.02x (5.3m)

 - Morbius - .885x

 

I gotta say, I really like how similar these comps are pointing this far out.  Of course, I wish it were higher since this should have a heavy early sales rush.  Hopefully we don't see it fall off too much.  (6m for Morbius would comp out to 5.3m as well!)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Took a look at the 10 IMAX shows for FB2 on 4/6.  Sales are looking pretty good - I'd expect most of these to sell out.

 

Movie	Theaters	Sold	Capacity	% Sold	Sales
Secrets of Dumbledore	10	2,621	3,634	72.12%	$58,899.97

[filmlover]

Variety is saying Morbius is tracking for a $40-50M opening.

 

Jared Leto's Morbius Eyes $40 Million-Plus Opening Weekend - Variety

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Variety is saying Morbius is tracking for a $40-50M opening.

 

Jared Leto's Morbius Eyes $40 Million-Plus Opening Weekend - Variety

Same as BOP longtracks. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/29/2022 at 10:03 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Sales by Format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Morbius	PLF	27	113	768	6,344	12.11%	$14.15	$10,865.21
		Standard	24	70	357	3,124	11.43%	$11.29	$4,030.32
	Morbius Total		51	183	1,125	9,468	11.88%	$13.24	$14,895.53

 

Sales by Matinee

 

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Morbius	N	40	153	968	7,132	13.57%	$13.67	$13,227.90
		Y	11	30	157	2,336	6.72%	$10.62	$1,667.63
	Morbius Total		51	183	1,125	9,468	11.88%	$13.24	$14,895.53

 

T-2 comps

 

Movie	Shows	Sold	Cap	Mult	Comp
Morbius	51	1125	9468
Spider-man	150	17905	23801	0.063	3,141,581
Batman	115	5150	19194	0.218	3,844,660

 

*These are the only three movies I've tracked in Santikos.  Yes, I know they are not the best comps. 

 

Aaand Santikos has bought an Alamo theater and is opening it Thursday.  Any thoughts on adding it to the tracking vs leaving it off?  The location has been closed since April 2021, so it hasn't been competition in the area for either of the other movies.  

 

https://www.mysanantonio.com/entertainment/article/San-Antonio-former-Alamo-Drafthouse-reopens-17028483.php

 

Santikos Tracking

 

Sales by Format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sls	Sold	Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Morbius	PLF	29	152	920	6,922	13.29%	$14.17	$13,037.89
		Standard	40	137	506	4,816	10.51%	$11.22	$5,675.72
	Morbius Total		69	289	1,426	11,738	12.15%	$13.12	$18,713.61

 

Sales by Matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sls	Sold	Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Morbius	N	57	265	1,244	9,300	13.38%	$13.51	$16,804.54
		Y	12	24	182	2,438	7.47%	$10.49	$1,909.07
	Morbius Total		69	289	1,426	11,738	12.15%	$13.12	$18,713.61

 

T-1 comps

 

Movie	Shows	Sold	Cap	Mult	Comp
Morbius	69	1426	11738
Spider-man	153	19015	24026	0.075	3,749,671
Batman	117	6029	19334	0.237	4,162,813

 

*These are the only three movies I've tracked in Santikos.  Yes, I know they are not the best comps. 

 

I was expecting the comps to go down, but I guess with how full the shows were for the other movies, it helped keep their new sales down.  Should be more room to improve on the last two runs.

Edited March 30, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex
Submitted too early

[filmlover]

CODA coming to 600+ theaters this weekend. Will they report any numbers? I doubt it.

 

Oscar Winner ‘CODA’ Movie Returns to Theaters – The Hollywood Reporter

[EmpireCity]

I am seeing some anecdotally strong pre-sales for FB3, at least better than expected.  I think once the reviews hit and marketing takes off that it will do pretty well.  

[Tinalera]

Morbius

Toronto Ontario

THURS March 31 taken Wed March 30

13 theatres

76 shows

 

Total sold 812

Total remaining 18614

Total seats 19426

Percentage 4.18

 

So here's Thurs numbers with 13 shows, now that I am navigating cineplex a bit better with the changes. I will TRY to get Numbers for Thurs and Friday tomorrow. I am going away for weekend so I won't be near computer. Sonic 2 isn't budging too much but its still early so not sure Ill do an update of Sonic 2 numbers till next week, but who knows maybe in a rush of endorphins I do all those seats before weekend....