The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

Dr Strange 2 MTC2 Friday - 79277/967760 1045797.85 6601 shows

 

Roughly around 60% of previews sales at MTC2. @Menor Reborn any comps?

[keysersoze123]

Fantastic Beasts 3

Alpha Previews - 45868/429056 739876.82 2016 shows

Alpha Friday - 41343/510696 654499.99 2322 shows

 

PS is not bad at all. Thinking 6m+ previews at this point. 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fantastic Beasts 3

Alpha Previews - 45868/429056 739876.82 2016 shows

Alpha Friday - 41343/510696 654499.99 2322 shows

 

PS is not bad at all. Thinking 6m+ previews at this point. 

I wonder what the IM would be for it.

[EmpireCity]

2 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

What do you mean by "spend thousands to fix and update their 3D equipment", over 5 digits?

And if some are unwilling to do so, wont disney spend some of the movies marketing budget to help out?

And besides (domestic) avatar 1 only released in 3d in 3.5k screens split between 2k theaters, as long 2 gets similar numbers of 3d screens it should be enough for it do great, even if its potential gross suffers a hit

 

 

Yes, over 4 or 5 digits.  There are all sorts of updates and replacing of equipment or fixing of lenses.  You also need to account for the cost in additional labor.  Many theaters haven't used their 3D equipment in over 3 years and some even longer.  

 

No, lol, Disney isn't going to spend some of the movies marketing budget to help out.  Have you met Disney?

Edited April 11, 2022 by EmpireCity

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Oh yeah yeah I get all that. I mean in terms of the tracking. Things we're looking up just a couple days ago, whereas now the word is that it may not even hit $40m

They are up. On first day of sales there was danger of sub $30M but things got better a bit in next 3-4 days and then that was it, no further improvement out of ordinary.

[charlie Jatinder]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dr Strange 2 MTC2 Friday - 79277/967760 1045797.85 6601 shows

 

Roughly around 60% of previews sales at MTC2. @Menor Reborn any comps?

FRI comp don't really matter till final 2-3 days. We just need FRI & SAT sales for estimating nationwide overall sales.

[charlie Jatinder]

49 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fantastic Beasts 3

Alpha Previews - 45868/429056 739876.82 2016 shows

Alpha Friday - 41343/510696 654499.99 2322 shows

 

PS is not bad at all. Thinking 6m+ previews at this point. 

Dune FRI at same time was was 50K & Previews 47K.

 

This will be doing better in other chains than Dune so $6M previews can happen.

 

 

Edit: Without knowing daily pace, I think more like $5.5M.

 

FRI can go to $12M & weekend around $36M ish. 

 

Take things 10% better for FSS it will be around $40M still.

Edited April 11, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[ZeeSoh]

24 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I wonder what the IM would be for it.

CoG and Morbius both had an IM of about 6.8x. I’d say somewhere around that. So if this does 6m in previews then I guess an OW around 42m or so. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dr Strange 2 MTC2 Friday - 79277/967760 1045797.85 6601 shows

 

Roughly around 60% of previews sales at MTC2. @Menor Reborn any comps?

Nothing good. We just haven't had any releases in this PS range recently.

[charlie Jatinder]

Hmm. We are 160 pages in within 3 months or so. I think we may hit 1k before the end of year.

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric the Marxist]

12 hours ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	1039	16391	6.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 72

 

Comp

0.581x of Shang-Chi T-5 (5.12M)

0.854x of No Time to Die T-5 (5.38M)

0.976x of Dune T-5 (4.98M)

0.446x of Eternals T-5 (4.24M)

1.295x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-5 (5.83M)

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	1172	16391	7.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 133

 

Comp

0.591x of Shang-Chi T-4 (5.2M)

0.887x of No Time to Die T-4 (5.59M)

1.000x of Dune T-4 (5.1M)

0.469x of Eternals T-4 (4.46M)

1.312x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-4 (5.91M)

 

Yeah I'm not convinced about sub-40M. The comps keep going up here more and more every day, and there are peeps here that have way more optimistic numbers than me. Just feels like people here are predicting things way too fast.

[Eric the Marxist]

12 hours ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Doctor Strange 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	234	7564	45297	16.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 264

Doctor Strange 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	234	7772	45297	17.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 208

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	1172	16391	7.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 133

 

Comp

0.591x of Shang-Chi T-4 (5.2M)

0.887x of No Time to Die T-4 (5.59M)

1.000x of Dune T-4 (5.1M)

0.469x of Eternals T-4 (4.46M)

1.312x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-4 (5.91M)

 

Yeah I'm not convinced about sub-40M. The comps keep going up here more and more every day, and there are peeps here that have way more optimistic numbers than me. Just feels like people here are predicting things way too fast.

 

I'm with you and think it goes over $40m rather easily.  Still thinking $50m+ is possible if WoM is good.  

[MadGoose]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I'm with you and think it goes over $40m rather easily.  Still thinking $50m+ is possible if WoM is good.  

Gosh, I hope you're right. WOM should be much better than CoG and it seems to be the consensus that it's the best of the three.

Edited April 11, 2022 by MadGoose

[clockwork]

2 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	1172	16391	7.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 133

 

Comp

0.591x of Shang-Chi T-4 (5.2M)

0.887x of No Time to Die T-4 (5.59M)

1.000x of Dune T-4 (5.1M)

0.469x of Eternals T-4 (4.46M)

1.312x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-4 (5.91M)

 

Yeah I'm not convinced about sub-40M. The comps keep going up here more and more every day, and there are peeps here that have way more optimistic numbers than me. Just feels like people here are predicting things way too fast.

 

People see low numbers when things start out and jump to "wow there's no movement at all with this" but I'm sure there's been many successful movies that had an initial slow buildup then got into a very steady rhythm and rode it to success. But I'm not a numbers person so thats just how I interpret this situation.

Edited April 11, 2022 by clockwork

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	329	32809	40916	8107	19.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

285

 

Day Four Comps:

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	51.38		511	15779		0/298	20647/36426	43.32%		28183	28.77%		25.69m
Batsy:	230.44		126	3518		0/248	28780/32298	10.89%		11757	68.95%		49.78m

NOTE: The Batman had two days of sales where only a limited number of early access showings were available for purchase - those two days of sales accounted for 475 tickets sold.

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	88.16%	12.19
SC:	5847	138.65%	12.20
LTBC:	7712	105.12%	12.19
ET:	6409	126.49%	12.02
NWH:	28183	28.77%	14.38
Batsy:	11757	68.95%	14.89

 

Regal:     1830/10901  [16.79% sold]
Matinee:    437/4632  [9.43% | 5.39% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

"Day of" comps removed as of tomorrow...

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	329	32585	40916	8331	20.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

224

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	90.59%	12.52
SC:	5847	142.48%	12.54
LTBC:	7712	108.03%	12.53
ET:	6409	129.99%	12.35
NWH:	28183	29.56%	14.78
Batsy:	11757	70.86%	15.31

 

Regal:     1876/10901  [17.21% sold]
Matinee:    452/4632  [9.76% | 5.43% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Man, it seems like just a couple of days ago yesterday that some folks were angsting on DS-MoM reaching 170 OW.  My, how time does fly.

[Porthos]

On 4/9/2022 at 11:59 PM, Porthos said:

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23915	25468	1553	6.10%

 

Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	700
Total Seats Sold Today	136

 

T-5 Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	72.40		183	2145		0/113	15466/17611	12.18%		5847	26.56%		6.37m
NTTD	100.45		119	1546		0/145	20907/22453	6.89%		7712	20.14%		6.23m
Dune	128.99		63	1204		0/79	11124/12328	9.77%		2915	53.28%		6.58m
GB:A	168.80		122	920		0/117	16629/17549	5.24%		3034	51.19%		7.60m
Morbius	126.78		95	1225		0/151	20222/21447	5.71%		3477	44.66%		7.23m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

  

Regal:       229/6790  [3.37% sold]
Matinee:    118/4082  [2.89% | 7.60% of all tickets sold]

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23779	25468	1689	6.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

136

 

T-4 Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	70.20		261	2406		0/113	15205/17611	13.66%		5847	28.89%		6.18m
NTTD	99.18		157	1703		0/145	20757/22460	7.58%		7712	21.90%		6.15m
Dune	126.61		130	1334		0/79	10936/12270	10.87%		2915	57.94%		6.46m
GB:A	169.75		75	995		0/117	16554/17549	5.67%		3034	55.67%		7.64m
Morbius	124.93		127	1352		0/151	20089/21441	6.31%		3477	48.58%		7.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:       239/6790  [3.52% sold]
Matinee:    134/4082  [3.28% | 7.93% of all tickets sold]

Edited April 11, 2022 by Porthos
Morbius data didn't update

[Cooper Legion]

The regulars in this thread are pretty used to reading trends and pace (though of course it’s not an exact science). The problem is that even if it ends up with low 6s in previews that is not necessarily good enough to pass 40 on Easter.

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

Regarding CinemaCon, is it usual for studios to announce new movies?? I thought they only talk about their upcoming slate of movies,in this case coming in 2022.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	329	32585	40916	8331	20.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

224

The target set for T-10 day is 11K. It's around 2.7k away from that and we have 15 days to go. That need 180 avg per day, a few more days over 200 will make it bit easy. Not gonna be easy.