The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-1	Father Stu (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	15	1,466	52	19	3.55%
		Phoenix	5	14	1,235	50	16	4.05%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,516	35	12	2.31%
	Father Stu (Tue) Total		18	43	4,217	137	47	3.25%
T-10	The Bad Guys	Jacksonville	6	26	3,134	6	-1	0.19%
		Phoenix	5	14	1,973	7	7	0.35%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,367	24	12	1.76%
	The Bad Guys Total		18	54	6,474	37	18	0.57%
T-10	The Northman	Jacksonville	7	14	1,868	33	12	1.77%
		Phoenix	4	8	1,037	34	15	3.28%
		Raleigh	6	6	675	27	11	4.00%
	The Northman Total		17	28	3,580	94	38	2.63%
T-24	Doctor Strange 2	Jacksonville	7	152	24,062	2,339	219	9.72%
		Phoenix	6	131	19,512	2,578	284	13.21%
		Raleigh	8	124	14,960	2,832	289	18.93%
	Doctor Strange 2 Total		21	407	58,534	7,749	792	13.24%
T-3	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	59	11,329	634	201	5.60%
		Phoenix	7	52	9,573	597	208	6.24%
		Raleigh	8	42	5,332	646	161	12.12%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		21	153	26,234	1,877	570	7.15%

 

Father Stu T-1 comps

 - House of Gucci - .377x (491k)

 - Stillwater - 2.91x (816k)

 - WSS - .74x (592x)

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-3 comps

 - Shang Chi - 1.03x (9.09m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.05x (8.51m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - F9 - 1.3x (9.2m)

 - Dune - 1.59x (8.12m)

 

Northman T-10 comps

 - Green Knight - 4.95x (3.71m)

 - Ghostbusters - .199x (825k)

 - Morbius - .153x (874k)

 

Bad Guys T-10 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .088x (438k)

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 1.44x (13.7m)

 - Shang-Chi - 1.89x (16.64m)

 - Black Widow - 1.05x (13.89m)

 - No Way Home - .223x (11.17m)

 

DS2 pace still looks really good.   Not sure why my FB3 comps are so much higher than others, but I'm not complaining.   I'm sure it will level out in the next few days.

 

19 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-10	TUWoMT	Jacksonville	7	12	1,550	2	2	0.13%
		Phoenix	1	2	228	0	0	0.00%
		Raleigh	7	9	1,004	4	4	0.40%
	TUWoMT Total		15	23	2,782	6	6	0.22%
T-2	TUWoMT (Wed EA)	Jacksonville	2	2	196	38	38	19.39%
		Phoenix	1	2	230	56	56	24.35%
		Raleigh	1	1	118	17	17	14.41%
	TUWoMT (Wed EA) Total		4	5	544	111	111	20.40%
T-5	TUWoMT (Sat EA)	Jacksonville	1	1	88	6	6	6.82%
		Raleigh	1	1	58	1	1	1.72%
	TUWoMT (Sat EA) Total		2	2	146	7	7	4.79%

 

This is a bit of a mess, but since there are shows starting this Wednesday I figured I would check the other days as well.  

 

T-2 EA comps
 - Lost City (EA) - 1.13x (849k) (9 shows)

 - Ghostbusters (EA) - 3.17x (1.11m) (2 shows)

 - Sonic 2 (EA) - .45x (573k) (8 shows)

 - NTTD (EA) - .44x (479k) (5 shows)

 

These are a little dicey with the multiple days of EA (Lost City had 3 days so this is comparing the T-2 for each) and differing number of shows for these areas.   I think it's on a good pace to earn 500k on Wednesday, but no idea on Saturday yet.   I just realized that I didn't include this in my showtime report, so here are the numbers

 

T-2 week previews
TUWoMT (Wed 4/13 EA) - 211 shows

TUWoMT (Sat 4/16 EA) - 119 shows

TUWoMT (Previews) - 1,488 (831 TC)

 - Ambulance - 1,183 (671)

 - X - 1,829 (1,297)

 - The 355 - 1,846 (1,191)

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-0	Father Stu (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	15	1,554	69	17	4.44%
		Phoenix	5	15	1,279	83	33	6.49%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,516	71	36	4.68%
	Father Stu (Tue) Total		18	44	4,349	223	86	5.13%
T-1	TUWoMT (Wed EA)	Jacksonville	2	2	196	42	4	21.43%
		Phoenix	1	2	230	59	3	25.65%
		Raleigh	1	1	118	18	1	15.25%
	TUWoMT (Wed) Total		4	5	544	119	8	21.88%
T-2	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	59	11,329	724	90	6.39%
		Phoenix	7	56	9,871	681	84	6.90%
		Raleigh	8	45	5,507	741	95	13.46%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		21	160	26,707	2,146	269	8.04%
T-23	Doctor Strange 2	Jacksonville	7	152	24,062	2,418	79	10.05%
		Phoenix	6	131	19,512	2,638	60	13.52%
		Raleigh	8	124	14,960	2,935	103	19.62%
	Doctor Strange 2 Total		21	407	58,534	7,991	242	13.65%
T-4	TUWoMT (Sat EA)	Jacksonville	1	1	88	6	0	6.82%
		Raleigh	1	1	58	5	4	8.62%
	TUWoMT (Sat EA) Total		2	2	146	11	4	7.53%
T-9	The Bad Guys	Jacksonville	6	26	3,134	8	2	0.26%
		Phoenix	5	14	1,973	9	2	0.46%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,367	24	0	1.76%
	The Bad Guys Total		18	54	6,474	41	4	0.63%
T-9	The Northman	Jacksonville	7	14	1,868	42	9	2.25%
		Phoenix	4	8	1,037	35	1	3.38%
		Raleigh	6	6	675	31	4	4.59%
	The Northman Total		17	28	3,580	108	14	3.02%
T-9	TUWoMT	Jacksonville	7	12	1,550	2	0	0.13%
		Phoenix	4	7	839	4	4	0.48%
		Raleigh	7	9	1,004	4	0	0.40%
	TUWoMT Total		18	28	3,393	10	4	0.29%

 

Father Stu T-0 comps

 - House of Gucci - .491x (639k)

 - Stillwater - 3.33x (932k)

 - WSS - .76x (609x)

 - Death on the Nile - .66x (726k)

 

Pretty impressed by these sales.  Don't know how it will translate through the weekend, but preview number should be pretty good.  I'd guess around 700k.

 

TUWoMT T-1 EA comps
 - Lost City (EA) - .75x (565k) (9 shows)

 - Ghostbusters (EA) - 2.7x (947k) (2 shows)

 - Sonic 2 (EA) - .313x (397k) (8 shows)

 - NTTD (EA) - missed

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-2 comps

 - Shang Chi - 1.02x (9.01m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.967x (8.16m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - F9 - 1.24x (8.81m)

 - Dune - 1.42x (7.26m)

 

Northman T-9 comps

 - Green Knight - 4.7x (3.52m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Morbius - .163x (930k)

 - No Time to Die - .205x (1.066m)

 

Bad Guys T-9 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .086x (431k)

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 1.488x (14.13m)

 - Shang-Chi - 1.95x (17.16m)

 - Black Widow - 1.085x (14.33m)

 - No Way Home - .23x (11.52m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Just now, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-2	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	59	11,329	724	90	6.39%
		Phoenix	7	56	9,871	681	84	6.90%
		Raleigh	8	45	5,507	741	95	13.46%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		21	160	26,707	2,146	269	8.04%

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-2 comps

 - Shang Chi - 1.02x (9.01m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.967x (8.16m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - F9 - 1.24x (8.81m)

 - Dune - 1.42x (7.26m)

 

Break down for Fantastic Beasts 3

 

Raleigh

 - Shang Chi - 1.01x (8.85m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.24x (9.29m)

 - F9 - 1.11x (7.86m)

 - Dune - 1.69x (8.61m)

 

Phoenix

 - Shang Chi - .93x (8.19m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.54x (6.38m)

 - F9 - 1.17x (8.34m)

 - Dune - 1.21x (6.15m)

 

Jacksonville

 - Shang Chi - 1.16x (10.18m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.28x (9.48m)

 - F9 - 1.51x (10.69m)

 - Dune - 1.44x (7.34m)

 

I guess all three cities are over indexing to some extent, with Jacksonville being the most.  Or maybe the other tracked cities are under indexing?  Who knows...

[charlie Jatinder]

On 4/9/2022 at 5:58 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Doctor Strange Harkins T-28 Day

 

Normal - 7349 on 352 shows (+952)
Premium formats - 6120 on 62 shows (+384)

Total - 13469

 

Comps

0.41x  Spider-man: No Way Home two days Admits - $21M

 

Solid pace on day two. To not fall off NWH comps is amazing, in fact day two pace was 43% of NWH. Now DSitMoM has a lot of time to catch up.

NWH was 40,179 at T-10 days. If DSitMoM is to do $35M+, probably needs to be around 21-22K by then. Let's see how it reach there. 

 

Data by @Menor Reborn

Doctor Strange Harkins T-24 Days

 

Normal - 8,490 on 362 shows (+1141 in last 4 days)

Premium - 6,578 on 62 shows (+458)

 

Total - 15,068 on 424 shows ($192K)

 

Around 1600 seats added in last 4 days.  For 21K by T-10 days, need nearly 6k in 14 days. This looks hard. 

 

Thanks @Menor Reborn for data.

 

[Tinalera]

Ah, looks like I can start tracking Doctor Strange for Toronto that's coolness.

[Porthos]

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

IIRC I remember you saying FB2 overindexed in Sacto. So that will be something to watch for as your comps are higher than other places we are getting.

 

It's certainly possible but my this doesn't feel like an over-index situation.  At least not at the level of FB2.  I mean, my lower range comps are in the low 6s which does seem supported by the totality of the evidence we have right now.
 

I could bring back the unofficial FB2 comp, but those extra fourteen days of pre-sales are still throwing off the comp something huge. Right now the adjusted FB2 comp is claiming 4.7m, which is off in the other direction IMO.  I say that because FB3 is still outselling FB2 on a day-to-day basis here as it's T-3 at the same theaters I had seat info would be 262 seats sold vs FB2's 203. 

 

T-2 (396 seats sold at 2018 tracked theaters) will be interesting as that was the day of early access sales for FB2, so I expect FB2 to outsell FB3 today but to fall back again on T-1 and T-0. But if FB3 is within 60% of FB2, it'll still claw back ground.

 

Still you are right it is something for me to keep in mind.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

4 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-0	Father Stu (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	15	1,554	69	17	4.44%
		Phoenix	5	15	1,279	83	33	6.49%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,516	71	36	4.68%
	Father Stu (Tue) Total		18	44	4,349	223	86	5.13%

 

Father Stu T-0 comps

 - House of Gucci - .491x (639k)

 - Stillwater - 3.33x (932k)

 - WSS - .76x (609x)

 - Death on the Nile - .66x (726k)

 

Pretty impressed by these sales.  Don't know how it will translate through the weekend, but preview number should be pretty good.  I'd guess around 700k.

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
1-Hr	Father Stu (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	15	1,554	97	28	6.24%
		Phoenix	5	15	1,279	98	15	7.66%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,516	94	23	6.20%
	Father Stu (Tue) Total		18	44	4,349	289	66	6.65%

 

Father Stu T-1 hr comps

 - House of Gucci - .431x (561k)

 - Stillwater - 2.16x (604k)

 - WSS - .76x (608x)

 - Death on the Nile - missed

 

Adjusting my prediction down to 600k.  Not a great final day, and a little worried that Tuesday pricing may be in effect and lower it even more.

[el sid]

A bit late but I'm so glad that it worked today.

 

Father Stu had today at 10am EST 97 sold tickets for today in 6 theaters.

Comps: Overcomer (8.1M OW) had on Thursday for Thursday 91 sold tickets.

And American Underdog had on Saturday for Saturday 241 sold tickets (4.2M OD but that was directly on Christmas).

I also think that the R-Rating is hurting but the number isn't that bad and I guess the WOM will decide.

 

The Northman had today 150 sold tickets for Friday, April 22.

Comps: The Green Knight had 159 sold tickets on Monday of its release week (= 6 days later) 

and The Last Duel had also on Monday of its release week 46 sold tickets. 

Not bad so far and I'm curious how it will perform next week.

Edited April 12, 2022 by el sid

[Tinalera]

Toronto Ontario Taken April 12

 

Fantastic Beasts 3

Thurs April 14

10 Theatres

71 shows

 

Total sold 1111

Total Remaining 16876

Total Seats 17987

Percentage 6.18

 

Doctor Strange and Multiverse of Madness

Thurs May 5

10 Theatres

82 shows

 

Total sold 5498

Total Remaining 15586

Total Seats 21084

Percentage 26.08

 

Toronto seems to really like their Marvel movies. And just for context for both these shows these aren't theopening Friday, this is Thursday pre*cough*...previe*cough*..."previews" (though lets face it Thursday really is opening day now)

 

 

 

 

[el sid]

Fantastic Beasts 3 had today counted at the same time as the movies above 1.776 sold tickets for Friday.

Comps: Ghostbusters: Afterlife had on Wednesday of its release week for Thursday (means FB 3 has technically 2 days left) 1.221 sold tickets.

Sonic 2 had on Wednesday for Friday (= 1 day left for FB) 1.484 sold tickets,

Uncharted had on Wednesday 982 sold tickets (again 1 day left) 

and Morbius had on Monday of its release week 1.163 sold tickets for Friday and on Wednesday for Friday 1.541 sold tickets.

That's a good result for FB 3 so far, I can't complain.

 

PS: I'm not sure if I can count tomorrow (Easter week and sunshine here) but this won't be my last report this week).

 

Edited April 12, 2022 by el sid

[Noctis]

@Porthos huge thank you to you and everybody else who put so much effort in tracking movies and giving us amazing breakdowns.

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, Noctis said:

@Porthos huge thank you to you and everybody else who put so much effort in tracking movies and giving us amazing breakdowns.

Its something we all enjoy doing (though sometimes "enjoy" might be too strong a word lol). Ive learned alot in my relatively short time since I came here, just things to look for and how numbers break down and just in general how the business works.  Ill grant it isn't always a great convo starter at gatherings...

 

"So what do you do for a hobby?"

"Well I go to websites and track how many seats are being sold and share that info with other people and we try and predict box office numbers, did you know that *goes into spiel about how a certain movie made x amount vs another movie and speculate about demos, Marketing, ect"

Response  "uhhhh...yea...." 

 

 

[Eric is Quiet]

17 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Father Stu Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	175	3571	4.90%

 

Comp

0.833x of Dear Evan Hansen T-1 (667K)

2.869x of The Last Duel T-1 (1M)

0.478x of House of Gucci T-1 (621K)

0.777x of Dog T-1 (980K)

Father Stu Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	296	3571	8.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 121

 

Comp

0.946x of Dear Evan Hansen (756K)

3.020x of The Last Duel (1.06M)

0.492x of House of Gucci (640K)

1.072x of Dog (1.35M)

 

Honestly not a bad finish all things considered. Doesn't rock the boat, but far from a disaster.

[boogiezen888]

2 hours ago, el sid said:

A bit late but I'm so glad that it worked today.

 

Father Stu had today at 10am EST 97 sold tickets for today in 6 theaters.

Comps: Overcomer (8.1M OW) had on Thursday for Thursday 91 sold tickets.

And American Underdog had on Saturday for Saturday 241 sold tickets (4.2M OD but that was directly on Christmas).

I also think that the R-Rating is hurting but the number isn't that bad and I guess the WOM will decide.

 

The Northman had today 150 sold tickets for Friday, April 22.

Comps: The Green Knight had 159 sold tickets on Monday of its release week (= 6 days later) 

and The Last Duel had also on Monday of its release week 46 sold tickets. 

Not bad so far and I'm curious how it will perform next week.

 

Regarding the numbers for The Northman. Is this good or bad?

[el sid]

42 minutes ago, boogiezen888 said:

 

Regarding the numbers for The Northman. Is this good or bad?

So far, I'm confident but the last week is the important one.

Some members mentioned that the marketing campaign in the US is poor which is sad because I also think this film has potential.

But if it's up to 300 or better 500 tickets after the Easter weekend I will go with 20-25M plus :).

[el sid]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Its something we all enjoy doing (though sometimes "enjoy" might be too strong a word lol). Ive learned alot in my relatively short time since I came here, just things to look for and how numbers break down and just in general how the business works.  Ill grant it isn't always a great convo starter at gatherings...

 

"So what do you do for a hobby?"

"Well I go to websites and track how many seats are being sold and share that info with other people and we try and predict box office numbers, did you know that *goes into spiel about how a certain movie made x amount vs another movie and speculate about demos, Marketing, ect"

Response  "uhhhh...yea...." 

 

 

😊. Say we're better than deadline or variety and all other established magazines (which is true but they don't know how easy it is to archive that ^^).

[BruiseCruise]

Have the BoxOffice trackers considered starting their own tracking/forecasting website ala BOPro?

 

 

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, el sid said:

😊. Say we're better than deadline or variety and all other established magazines (which is true but they don't know how easy it is to archive that ^^).

 

Not drinking alcohol the whole day greatly helps us in that regard compared to the Deadline Office.

[Joyous Legion]

16 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Not drinking alcohol the whole day greatly helps us in that regard compared to the Deadline Office.

Wait, are we *not* supposed to 

[ZackM]

 

Finally got the tracker to work again after being down for 2 days.

 

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days
	Last 3 Days			4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	222			111	6,659
Seats Added	14,853			20,059	1,128,589
Seats Sold	16,935			8,773	231,342
4/12/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	6,881	257,050	1,163,501	22.09%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	4	35	159	453	804
ATP
$16.96

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 hours ago, Tinalera said:

Its something we all enjoy doing (though sometimes "enjoy" might be too strong a word lol). Ive learned alot in my relatively short time since I came here, just things to look for and how numbers break down and just in general how the business works.  Ill grant it isn't always a great convo starter at gatherings...

 

"So what do you do for a hobby?"

"Well I go to websites and track how many seats are being sold and share that info with other people and we try and predict box office numbers, did you know that *goes into spiel about how a certain movie made x amount vs another movie and speculate about demos, Marketing, ect"

Response  "uhhhh...yea...." 

 

 

Most of the time when I talk about a movies BO the response is either "that's out?" or "never heard of it" lol