The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Most of the time when I talk about a movies BO the response is either "that's out?" or "never heard of it" lol

 

All these people missing out. Things like Morbius' epic run so far provide much better comedic value than most comedy shows not to mention the exhilarating RT watches as well as some of the best meltdowns in Internet history.

[Eric is Quiet]

Moderation

 

This is the Tracking Thread. Please don't.

[filmlover]

I've actually seen a ton of ads for The Northman over the past few days. Enough to save it from being a write-off? Probably not, but this might be one of those times where any not-completely-miserable number will elevate its run to "I'll take it" status.

[boogiezen888]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I've actually seen a ton of ads for The Northman over the past few days. Enough to save it from being a write-off? Probably not, but this might be one of those times where any not-completely-miserable number will elevate its run to "I'll take it" status.

And the reviews are strong as well. So far Eggers going 3/3. Hopefully it will help.

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	1308	17579	7.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 136

 

Comp

0.568x of Shang-Chi T-3 (5M)

0.839x of No Time to Die T-3 (5.29M)

0.998x of Dune T-3 (5.09M)

0.477x of Eternals T-3 (4.53M)

1.248x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-3 (5.62M)

Okay, maybe you guys were on to something. 😬

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	116	1480	22482	6.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 172

 

Comp

0.563x of Shang-Chi T-2 (4.96M)

0.792x of No Time to Die T-2 (4.99M)

0.975x of Dune T-2 (4.97M)

0.472x of Eternals T-2 (4.48M)

1.147x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-2 (5.16M)

 

Honestly, I'm not sure why Philly's been so terrible the last couple days when everybody else has been fine. I don't know if it's a demographic thing or there's a lot of Potter fans in Philly who really wanted to buy tickets right away? It's weird.

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Doctor Strange 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	234	7953	45297	17.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 181

Doctor Strange 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	234	8153	45297	18.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 200

[keysersoze123]

Fantastic Beasts 3 Previews

Alpha - 59954/557131 952541.50 2872 shows

MTC2 - 40518/477390 539542.15 3105 shows 

 

Still plodding along.

 

[Porthos]

On 4/11/2022 at 11:58 PM, Porthos said:

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	329	32332	40916	8584	20.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

253

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	93.34%	12.90
SC:	5847	146.81%	12.92
LTBC:	7712	111.31%	12.91
ET:	6409	133.94%	12.72
NWH:	28183	30.46%	15.23
Batsy:	11757	73.01%	15.77

 

Regal:     1913/10901  [17.55% sold]
Matinee:    467/4632  [10.08% | 5.44% of all tickets sold]

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	329	32131	40910	8779	21.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

195

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	95.47%	13.20
SC:	5847	150.15%	13.21
LTBC:	7712	113.84%	13.20
ET:	6409	136.98%	13.01
NWH:	28183	31.15%	15.57
Batsy:	11757	74.67%	16.13

 

Regal:     1928/10901  [17.69% sold]
Matinee:    480/4632  [10.36% | 5.47% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 4/11/2022 at 11:59 PM, Porthos said:

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	193	24695	26672	1977	7.41%

 

Total Showings Added Today	15
Total Seats Added Today	1204
Total Seats Sold Today	288

 

T-3 Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	72.13		335	2741		0/156	19111/21852	12.54%		5847	33.81%		6.35m
NTTD	105.10		178	1881		0/157	21272/23153	8.12%		7712	25.64%		6.52m
Dune	131.19		173	1507		0/92	11672/13179	11.43%		2915	67.82%		6.69m
GB:A	167.97		182	1177		0/153	19354/20531	5.73%		3034	65.16%		7.56m
Morbius	125.36		225	1577		0/178	22278/23855	6.61%		3477	56.86%		7.15m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        287/6790  [4.23% sold]
Matinee:    181/4082  [4.43% | 9.16% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Not that bad at all, really.  Won't commit to 7m+ quite yet, but it hit what it needed to hit for the trajectory at least.  Do feel more comfortable with mid 6s though.  Still, the proof will be in the pudding in the next three days...

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	25266	27661	2395	8.66%

 

Total Showings Added Today	13
Total Seats Added Today	989
Total Seats Sold Today	418

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	73.04		490	3279		0/183	21325/24604	13.33%		5847	40.96%		6.43m
NTTD	107.40		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		7712	31.06%		6.66m
Dune	137.49		235	1742		0/109	13069/14811	11.76%		2915	82.16%		7.01m
GB:A	158.61		333	1510		0/178	21594/23104	6.54%		3034	78.94%		7.14m
Morbius	125.72		328	1905		0/181	22143/24048	7.92%		3477	68.88%		7.17m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        368/7361  [5.00% sold]
Matinee:    244/4082  [5.98% | 10.19% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Not really slowing down in SacTown.  Could be over-performing, as discussed earlier today.  But if it isn't, then 6.5m-7m might be in the cards.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 Previews

Alpha - 59954/557131 952541.50 2872 shows

MTC2 - 40518/477390 539542.15 3105 shows 

 

Still plodding along.

 

Hmm. MTC 2 is stronger than Alpha. So Potter over index in West? I thought it would do better in East like Bond franchise.

MTC 1 suggests $6M ish while MTC 2 is $6.75M. So I guess could be $6.3M ish. Accordingly may be $19M opening day.

19
12
8 // 39

Can hit $40M if do slightly better.

[Tinalera]

Fantastic Beasts 3

Toronto Ontario taken Wed April 13

 

For Thurs April 14

Total Theatres 10

Total shows 70

 

Total Sold 1181

Total Remaining 16789

Total seats 17970

Percentage 6.57

 

 

For Friday April 15

Total Theatres 10

Total Shows 95

 

Total Sold 1475

Total Remaining 23677

Total Seats 25152

Percentage 5.86

 

Judging by other trackings of other cities seems about right in line with the percentages others are showing

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Tinalera

[filmlover]

Looks like Downton Abbey is going to be playing in Dolby Cinema since it's featured in small letters at the bottom of the new poster. Guessing it'll be a Sonic 2/Ambulance-like split with Doctor Strange if that's still making insane bank by then.

 

 

Celebrating #NationalPetDay with a brand new poster for #DowntonAbbey: A New Era! 🐶 The motion picture event returns this spring. pic.twitter.com/xFbxEZHF3G

— Focus Features (@FocusFeatures) April 11, 2022

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/12/2022 at 11:05 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-1	TUWoMT (Wed EA)	Jacksonville	2	2	196	42	4	21.43%
		Phoenix	1	2	230	59	3	25.65%
		Raleigh	1	1	118	18	1	15.25%
	TUWoMT (Wed) Total		4	5	544	119	8	21.88%
T-2	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	59	11,329	724	90	6.39%
		Phoenix	7	56	9,871	681	84	6.90%
		Raleigh	8	45	5,507	741	95	13.46%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		21	160	26,707	2,146	269	8.04%
T-23	Doctor Strange 2	Jacksonville	7	152	24,062	2,418	79	10.05%
		Phoenix	6	131	19,512	2,638	60	13.52%
		Raleigh	8	124	14,960	2,935	103	19.62%
	Doctor Strange 2 Total		21	407	58,534	7,991	242	13.65%
T-4	TUWoMT (Sat EA)	Jacksonville	1	1	88	6	0	6.82%
		Raleigh	1	1	58	5	4	8.62%
	TUWoMT (Sat EA) Total		2	2	146	11	4	7.53%
T-9	The Bad Guys	Jacksonville	6	26	3,134	8	2	0.26%
		Phoenix	5	14	1,973	9	2	0.46%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,367	24	0	1.76%
	The Bad Guys Total		18	54	6,474	41	4	0.63%
T-9	The Northman	Jacksonville	7	14	1,868	42	9	2.25%
		Phoenix	4	8	1,037	35	1	3.38%
		Raleigh	6	6	675	31	4	4.59%
	The Northman Total		17	28	3,580	108	14	3.02%
T-9	TUWoMT	Jacksonville	7	12	1,550	2	0	0.13%
		Phoenix	4	7	839	4	4	0.48%
		Raleigh	7	9	1,004	4	0	0.40%
	TUWoMT Total		18	28	3,393	10	4	0.29%

 

TUWoMT T-1 EA comps
 - Lost City (EA) - .75x (565k) (9 shows)

 - Ghostbusters (EA) - 2.7x (947k) (2 shows)

 - Sonic 2 (EA) - .313x (397k) (8 shows)

 - NTTD (EA) - missed

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-2 comps

 - Shang Chi - 1.02x (9.01m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.967x (8.16m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - F9 - 1.24x (8.81m)

 - Dune - 1.42x (7.26m)

 

Northman T-9 comps

 - Green Knight - 4.7x (3.52m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Morbius - .163x (930k)

 - No Time to Die - .205x (1.066m)

 

Bad Guys T-9 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .086x (431k)

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 1.488x (14.13m)

 - Shang-Chi - 1.95x (17.16m)

 - Black Widow - 1.085x (14.33m)

 - No Way Home - .23x (11.52m)

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-0	TUWoMT (Wed EA)	Jacksonville	2	2	196	55	13	28.06%
		Phoenix	1	2	230	69	10	30.00%
		Raleigh	1	1	118	21	3	17.80%
	TUWoMT (Wed) Total		4	5	544	145	26	26.65%
T-1	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	70	12,192	837	113	6.87%
		Phoenix	7	61	10,459	813	132	7.77%
		Raleigh	8	52	5,850	829	88	14.17%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		21	183	28,501	2,479	333	8.70%
T-22	Doctor Strange 2	Jacksonville	7	152	24,062	2,503	85	10.40%
		Phoenix	6	131	19,512	2,718	80	13.93%
		Raleigh	8	124	14,960	3,009	74	20.11%
	Doctor Strange 2 Total		21	407	58,534	8,230	239	14.06%
T-3	TUWoMT (Sat EA)	Jacksonville	1	1	88	10	4	11.36%
		Raleigh	1	1	58	5	0	8.62%
	TUWoMT (Sat) Total		2	2	146	15	4	10.27%
T-8	The Bad Guys	Jacksonville	6	26	3,134	17	9	0.54%
		Phoenix	5	14	1,973	13	4	0.66%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,367	25	1	1.83%
	The Bad Guys Total		18	54	6,474	55	14	0.85%
T-8	The Northman	Jacksonville	7	14	1,868	55	13	2.94%
		Phoenix	4	8	1,037	42	7	4.05%
		Raleigh	6	6	675	34	3	5.04%
	The Northman Total		17	28	3,580	131	23	3.66%
T-8	TUWoMT	Jacksonville	7	12	1,550	9	7	0.58%
		Phoenix	4	7	839	6	2	0.72%
		Raleigh	7	9	1,004	4	0	0.40%
	TUWoMT Total		18	28	3,393	19	9	0.56%

 

TUWoMT T-0 EA comps
 - Lost City (EA) - .56x (423k) (9 shows)

 - Ghostbusters (EA) - 2.01x (705k) (2 shows)

 - Sonic 2 (EA) - .301x (382k) (8 shows)

 - NTTD (EA) - missed

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-1 comps

 - Shang Chi - 1.01x (8.91m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.77x (7.34m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - F9 - 1.14x (8.07m)

 - Dune - 1.41x (7.17m)

 

Northman T-8 comps

 - Green Knight - 3.64x (2.73m)

 - Ghostbusters - .24x (992k)

 - Morbius - .179x (1.02m)

 - No Time to Die - .222x (1.157m)

 

Bad Guys T-8 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .107x (533k)

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 1.53x (14.55m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.01x (17.67m)

 - Black Widow - 1.12x (14.76m)

 - No Way Home - .24x (11.87m)

[DAJK]

Isn’t this weekend a 3 or 4-day weekend (4 where I live, not sure about everywhere else). Either way, Sunday should be boosted, no?

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Isn’t this weekend a 3 or 4-day weekend (4 where I live, not sure about everywhere else). Either way, Sunday should be boosted, no?

3-day. Usually drops are standard on Easter Sunday, Good Friday is just bound to result in some frontloading all around.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/11/2022 at 10:56 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	FB3	PLF	25	165	687	6,066	11.33%	$14.74	$10,129.45
		Standard	44	143	423	5,971	7.08%	$11.65	$4,929.76
	FB3 Total		69	308	1,110	12,037	9.22%	$13.57	$15,059.21

 

Matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	FB3	N	49	263	1,013	8,301	12.20%	$13.89	$14,067.61
		Y	20	45	97	3,736	2.60%	$10.22	$991.60
	FB3 Total		69	308	1,110	12,037	9.22%	$13.57	$15,059.21

 

*New sales are since Friday afternoon run

 

FB3 T-3 comps

 - Morbius - 1.178x (6.72m)

 - No Way Home - .065x (3.24m)

 - Batman (Thu only) - .24x (4.23m)

 - Batman + EA - .22x (4.74m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu only) - 1.486x (7.4m)

 - Sonic 2 + EA - .968x (6.05m)

 - Ambulance - 555x (388.5m)

Santikos Tracking

 

Format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	FB3	PLF	25	87	917	6,066	15.12%	$14.72	$13,495.74
		Standard	45	124	629	6,034	10.42%	$11.71	$7,365.12
	FB3 Total		70	211	1,546	12,100	12.78%	$13.49	$20,860.86

 

Matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	FB3	N	50	184	1,396	8,364	16.69%	$13.86	$19,342.60
		Y	20	27	150	3,736	4.01%	$10.12	$1,518.26
	FB3 Total		70	211	1,546	12,100	12.78%	$13.49	$20,860.86

 

FB3 T-1 comps

 - Morbius - 1.08x (6.18m)

 - No Way Home - .08x (4.065m)

 - Batman (Thu only) - .256x (4.51m)

 - Batman + EA - .24x (5.16m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu only) - 1.02x (5.06m)

 - Sonic 2 + EA - .716x (4.47m)

 - Ambulance - 155x (108.2m)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The odds-on favorite “Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore,” the third entry in the “Harry Potter” spinoff series, is expected to debut to at least $40 million from 4,200 North American theaters. Those ticket sales should be enough to surpass the competition — unless last weekend’s champion “Sonic the Hedgehog 2” powers to another strong turnout at the movies. Paramount’s kid friendly sequel opened last weekend to huge $72 million and could add $30 million to $40 million in its second outing.

Elsewhere, Sony Pictures is getting an early start by bringing “Father Stu,” an R-rated faith based drama starring Mark Wahlberg and Mel Gibson, to theaters on Wednesday. The movie is projected to earn $7 million from 2,705 cinemas in its first five days of release.

[filmlover]

Could be a real race for #1 depending on Sonic's hold. Wildest scenario depending on how The Bad Guys does next week is that it holds onto the top spot until Doctor Strange opens.

Edited April 13, 2022 by filmlover

[Ezen Baklattan]

58 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Could be a real race for #1 depending on Sonic's hold. Wildest scenario depending on how The Bad Guys does next week is that it holds onto the top spot until Doctor Strange opens.

I actually think all of Bad Guys/Sonic/Fantastic Beasts could be in the mid-teens range or higher the weekend of the 22nd.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/11/2022 at 10:56 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-24	Doctor Strange 2	PLF	58	232	4,741	11,808	40.15%	$15.98	$75,739.43
		Standard	100	332	3,112	12,822	24.27%	$12.19	$37,921.46
	DS 2 Total		158	564	7,853	24,630	31.88%	$14.47	$113,660.89

 

Matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-24	Doctor Strange 2	N	116	450	6,687	17,847	37.47%	$14.95	$100,002.68
		Y	42	114	1,166	6,783	17.19%	$11.71	$13,658.21
	DS 2 Total		158	564	7,853	24,630	31.88%	$14.47	$113,660.89

 

 

*New sales are since Friday afternoon run

 

DS2 Comps

 - Spider-Man (5 days) - .553x (27.66m)

 - Batman (Final count) - .991x (21.4m)

 - Morbius (Final count) - 3.986x (22.72m)

Santikos Tracking

 

Format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-22	Doctor Strange 2	PLF	58	229	4,970	11,808	42.09%	$15.93	$79,151.97
		Standard	100	255	3,367	12,822	26.26%	$12.15	$40,896.77
	DS2 Total		158	484	8,337	24,630	33.85%	$14.40	$120,048.74

 

Matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-22	Doctor Strange 2	N	116	361	7,048	17,847	39.49%	$14.89	$104,953.24
		Y	42	123	1,289	6,783	19.00%	$11.71	$15,095.50
	DS2 Total		158	484	8,337	24,630	33.85%	$14.40	$120,048.74

 

*New sales since Monday

 

DS2 Comps

 - Spider-Man (7 days) - .577x (28.83m)

 - Batman (Final count) - 1.052x (22.72m)

 - Morbius (Final count) - 4.232x (24.12m)