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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 5/26/2022 at 9:32 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
JW3 Dominion T-14 Jax 7 107 13 664 15,994 4.15%
    Phx 6 94 7 634 16,370 3.87%
    Ral 8 67 18 687 7,529 9.12%
  Total   21 268 38 1,985 39,893 4.98%
JW3+JP T-14 Jax 5 5 7 138 811 17.02%
    Phx 6 6 14 310 638 48.59%
    Ral 7 7 3 120 688 17.44%
  Total   18 18 24 568 2,137 26.58%
Watcher T-7 Jax 2 2 0 1 77 1.30%
    Phx 3 4 0 2 483 0.41%
    Ral 2 3 1 2 207 0.97%
  Total   7 9 1 5 767 0.65%

 

JW3 T-14 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.05x (13.83m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .682x (12m)

 - Eternals - 1.44x (13.7m)

 - F9 - 3.48x (24.73m)

 

It's safe to say that all eyes are on Top Gun this week.  Hopefully JW3 sales pick back up once we get past the holiday.

 

ATP

JW3 Thu - 15.55

JW3 Double Feature - 16.31

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
JW3 Dominion T-13 Jax 7 107 93 757 15,994 4.73%
    Phx 6 94 19 653 16,370 3.99%
    Ral 8 69 30 717 7,963 9.00%
  Total   21 270 142 2,127 40,327 5.27%
JW3+JP T-13 Jax 5 5 7 145 811 17.88%
    Phx 6 6 5 315 638 49.37%
    Ral 7 7 3 123 688 17.88%
  Total   18 18 15 583 2,137 27.28%
Watcher T-6 Jax 2 2 1 2 77 2.60%
    Phx 3 4 0 2 483 0.41%
    Ral 2 3 0 2 207 0.97%
  Total   7 9 1 6 767 0.78%

 

JW3 T-13 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.04x (13.78m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - missed

 - F9 - 3.32x (23.6m)

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Grebacio Box Office Gold

Grebacio

Posted
Posted
On 4/29/2022 at 10:59 AM, HouseOfTheSun said:

Top Gun is gonna do what American Sniper did and everyone on these boards are going to be confused as to what went wrong with their predictions. This shits gonna be Boomer Endgame. 

@HouseOfTheSun was right all this time.

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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted

Top Gun Maverick

Toronto Ontario

Friday May 27  taken Friday May 27 noon(yes I missed Thursday I feel shame)

10 Theatres

154 shows

 

Total Sold 4211

Total Remaining (as of 12 noon) 34383

Total Seats 39584

Percentage 10.91

 

Sales picking up a bit as of noon today. Will be final count

 

 

 

 

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 5/26/2022 at 11:37 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Bob's Burgers  Standard 30 79 345 3,087 11.18% $11.94 $4,119.25
T-0 Top Gun 2 PLF 38 509 3,062 9,131 33.53% $16.14 $49,410.54
    Standard 92 472 2,052 12,415 16.53% $12.28 $25,189.34
  Top Gun 2 Total   130 981 5,114 21,546 23.74% $14.59 $74,599.88
T-1 Top Gun 2 (Fri) PLF 51 420 3,561 11,973 29.74% $15.83 $56,380.97
    Standard 137 460 2,225 18,504 12.02% $11.91 $26,498.12
  Top Gun 2 (Fri) Total   188 880 5,786 30,477 18.98% $14.32 $82,879.09

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Top Gun 2 N 99 737 4,206 16,284 25.83% $15.22 $64,028.00
    Y 31 244 908 5,262 17.26% $11.64 $10,571.88
  Top Gun 2 Total   130 981 5,114 21,546 23.74% $14.59 $74,599.88
T-1 Top Gun 2 (Fri) N 89 522 4,089 14,620 27.97% $15.38 $62,888.12
    Y 99 358 1,697 15,857 10.70% $11.78 $19,990.97
  Top Gun 2 (Fri) Total   188 880 5,786 30,477 18.98% $14.32 $82,879.09

 

*No JW3 today - might wait until weekend to pick it back up*

 

Bob's Burgers T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .171x (850k)

 - FB3 - .171x (1.03m)

 - Northman - 1.49x (2m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.28x (2.63m)

 

Just like regionals-no good comps here.  I'll just take the average of these and say 1.6m previews.

 

Top Gun T-0 comps

 - No Way Home - .257x (12.87m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .322x (11.61m)

 - FB3 - 2.54x (15.23m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .684x (12.03m)

 - Sonic (Thu) - 2.53x (12.6m)

 - Morbius - 2.6x (14.8m)

 

Top Gun + EA comp

 - Batman + EA - .87x (17.68m)

 - Sonic + EA - 2.28x (14.27m)

 

Santikos has shown to have much higher presales for CBM than others.  I wouldn't be surprised if it came closer to the FB3 comp.  Let's say 15m Thu previews.

 

Top Gun (Fri) T-1 comps

 - NWH (Fri) - .318x (22.92m)

 - Batman (Fri) - .748x (26.19m)

 - DS 2 (Fri) - .434x (23.76m)

 

Again, this isn't gonna play like a CBM, especially in this chain.  Just adding these since I have them.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Top Gun 2 (Fri) PLF 51 1,291 4,852 11,973 40.52% $15.46 $75,014.12
    Standard 137 1,370 3,595 18,504 19.43% $11.58 $41,636.66
  Top Gun 2 (Fri) Total   188 2,661 8,447 30,477 27.72% $13.81 $116,650.78

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Top Gun 2 (Fri) N 89 1,221 5,310 14,620 36.32% $15.11 $80,233.84
    Y 99 1,440 3,137 15,857 19.78% $11.61 $36,416.94
  Top Gun 2 (Fri) Total   188 2,661 8,447 30,477 27.72% $13.81 $116,650.78

 

I was hoping to have the tue/wed/thu breakdown before posting to be able to adjust, but it sounds like around 14.7m Thursday so I'll adjust under that assumption.

 

 Unadjusted T-0 comps

 - No Way Home Fri - .389x (27.98m)

 - Batman Fri - .858x (30.03m)

 - Morbius Fri - 3.42x (39.74m)

 - FB3 Fri - 2.54x (21.12m)

 - DS2 Fri - .53x (28.98m)

 

Adjusted T-0 comps

 - No Way Home - 31.9m

 - Batman - 31.67m

 - Morbius - 39.48m

 - FB3 - 20.4m

 - DS2 - 36.7m

 

Maybe 35m Friday.  Not sure which comp it will follow but walkups seem really good.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Top Gun 2 (Fri) PLF 51 1,291 4,852 11,973 40.52% $15.46 $75,014.12
    Standard 137 1,370 3,595 18,504 19.43% $11.58 $41,636.66
  Top Gun 2 (Fri) Total   188 2,661 8,447 30,477 27.72% $13.81 $116,650.78

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Top Gun 2 (Fri) N 89 1,221 5,310 14,620 36.32% $15.11 $80,233.84
    Y 99 1,440 3,137 15,857 19.78% $11.61 $36,416.94
  Top Gun 2 (Fri) Total   188 2,661 8,447 30,477 27.72% $13.81 $116,650.78

 

I was hoping to have the tue/wed/thu breakdown before posting to be able to adjust, but it sounds like around 14.7m Thursday so I'll adjust under that assumption.

 

 Unadjusted T-0 comps

 - No Way Home Fri - .389x (27.98m)

 - Batman Fri - .858x (30.03m)

 - Morbius Fri - 3.42x (39.74m)

 - FB3 Fri - 2.54x (21.12m)

 - DS2 Fri - .53x (28.98m)

 

Adjusted T-0 comps

 - No Way Home - 31.9m

 - Batman - 31.67m

 - Morbius - 39.48m

 - FB3 - 20.4m

 - DS2 - 36.7m

 

Maybe 35m Friday.  Not sure which comp it will follow but walkups seem really good.

AT least 1 morbillion or bust :-)

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Bigscrubnus Indie Sensation

Bigscrubnus

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Shawn said:

I wouldn't underestimate the walk-ups and middle America turnout on TGM just yet. But we'll see. Huge range of scenarios in play.

Hey Shawn, I hope Im not nothing you by pinging. But I was wondering about the JWD decrease in today’s projection. What do you think caused it, do you think it’ll trend upwards or downwards? Ect.

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted

Alpha preview multipliers for the 4 movies I've done full preview tracking for:

 

multiplier = total preview / (alpha tickets sold * alpha ATP)

 

(smaller number = over-indexed; larger number = under-indexed)

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home - 3.76

The Batman - 3.03

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - 3.52

Top Gun: Maverick - 3.96

 

Alpha net multiplier - 3.57

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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

Posted
  • Founder / Operator
Posted
1 minute ago, Bigscrubnus said:

Hey Shawn, I hope Im not nothing you by pinging. But I was wondering about the JWD decrease in today’s projection. What do you think caused it, do you think it’ll trend upwards or downwards? Ect.

No worries! It's a just precautionary adjustment for the most part. A few industry sources confirmed rumors about the test screenings not going well, so I shifted the pinpoints down a hair until having a better chance to reassess overall activity next week when Top Gun is out of the way.

 

That said, the same sources have said screenings with kids are going very well... so I still think there's some critic-proof aspect that will win out as it has before with Jurassic.

 

TLDR: nothing to worry about, just erring slightly on the side of caution.

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MrPink Global Phenomenon

MrPink

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*wakes up*

 

WHO IS DOUBTING THE POWAH OF SACRAMENTO *****NOW*****!!!!!!!!

 

NEVER DOUBTED YOU KING.

 

I'll be your sycophant till the end of time.

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XXR & Friends Global Phenomenon

XXR & Friends

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, T-ReXXR said:

Going with $19.5M full previews (Tues/Weds/Thurs). Looks like Canada and some of the more "liberal" markets are underperforming a bit compared to "The Batman" but the flyover states seem to be holding right around it or even stronger. 

 

Going with 19.5 - 34 - 41 - 37 - 29 for the 4-Days. 


Good enough. Let’s see how the rest goes. 
 

@Porthos It split the difference in ours. We should combine forces 😎

Edited by T-ReXXR
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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*wakes up*

 

WHO IS DOUBTING THE POWAH OF SACRAMENTO *****NOW*****!!!!!!!!

 

I think Regional numbers will always have the best raw predictive value.  My Michigan numbers back in 2019/2020 were really consistent.  Tracking alpha is great, but the raw numbers are less predictive due to lack of diversity.  That said, with enough data, and proper interpretations, alpha data should become really powerful.

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