The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

Everyone wants to boost their opening weekends as much as possible these days. Lightyear and Elvis doing early showings back-to-back weeks after Top Gun did so seems evident of that.

I don't know that's wholly the reason for them. Having an EA show exclusive to IMAX/PLF gives an extra show in that format, at a higher ATP, and clears up space in future shows that may have sold out

 

The others are often exclusive to specific chains - like AMC/investor - which gives them a leg up on competitors and pulls in business that they might otherwise have had to share on Thursday

 

In a market which is still soft in terms of overall foot traffic, competing with streaming, and where spoilers are getting more and more difficult to avoid, anything that can help boost revenue and/or brand loyalty by capitalizing on the need to see ASAP is a net benefit

[el sid]

3 hours ago, LegendaryBen said:

Thanks for these. Do you have any for Jurassic World Dominion and The Black Phone?

JWD either tomorrow or overmorrow. Depends on when I have the better comps.

The plot of The Black Phone sounds quite interesting IMO. If the tickets for The Black Phone go on sale tomorrow then I count it on Wednesday I guess.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, el sid said:

overmorrow

Huh. Learned a new word today. 

[Eric is Quiet]

22 hours ago, Eric Belcher said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1854	23705	7.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 20

 

Comp

2.143x of F9 T-11 (15.22M)

2.389x of Venom 2 T-11 (27.71M)

2.792x of No Time to Die T-11 (17.59M)

1.130x of Top Gun 2 T-11 (21.76M)

 

Yeah I dunno what happened here lol

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1945	23705	8.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 91

 

Comp

2.183x of F9 T-10 (15.5M)

2.291x of Venom 2 T-10 (26.57M)

2.590x of No Time to Die T-10 (16.32M)

1.139x of Top Gun 2 T-9 (21.94M)

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	191	22380	25374	2994	11.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

182

 

T-11 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	245.21		72	1221		0/101	15781/17002	7.18%		5847	51.21%		21.58m
NTTD	341.78		64	876		0/134	20340/21216	4.13%		3737	80.12%		21.19m
Dune	400.80		46	747		0/75	11084/11831	6.31%		2915	102.71%		20.44m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

T-11 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	263.70		59	1080		0/79	11335/12415	8.70%		4407	64.62%		19.61m
BW	102.96		108	2766		0/119	16494/19260	14.36%		9196	32.56%		14.23m
JWD (adj)	---		171	2848		0/169	19788/22636	12.58%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.54483x JW2 at the same sources of tracking on Day 11 [21.27m adj]
JW3 = 3.26903x KotM at the same sources of tracking on Day 11 [18.54m adj]
JW3 = 0.95203x TLK at the same sources of tracking on Day 11 [19.71m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       435/6145  [7.08% sold]
Matinee:    175/1535  [11.40% | 5.85% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	191	22186	25372	3186	12.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

192

 

T-10 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	232.55		149	1370		0/101	15632/17002	8.06%		5847	54.49%		20.46m
NTTD	335.37		74	950		0/135	20309/21259	4.47%		3737	85.26%		20.79m
Dune	383.86		83	830		0/75	11001/11831	7.02%		2915	109.30%		19.58m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	264.62		62	1142		0/79	11275/12417	9.20%		4407	68.57%		19.67m
BW	103.92		142	2908		0/119	16352/19260	15.10%		9196	34.65%		14.36m
JWD (adj)	---		174	3022		0/169	19614/22636	13.35%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.58403x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [21.81m adj]
JW3 = 3.26634x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [18.52m adj]
JW3 = 0.94025x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [19.46m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       468/6145  [7.62% sold]
Matinee:    181/1535  [11.79% | 5.68% of all tickets sold]

[charlie Jatinder]

42 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	191	22186	25372	3186	12.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

192

 

T-10 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	232.55		149	1370		0/101	15632/17002	8.06%		5847	54.49%		20.46m
NTTD	335.37		74	950		0/135	20309/21259	4.47%		3737	85.26%		20.79m
Dune	383.86		83	830		0/75	11001/11831	7.02%		2915	109.30%		19.58m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	264.62		62	1142		0/79	11275/12417	9.20%		4407	68.57%		19.67m
BW	103.92		142	2908		0/119	16352/19260	15.10%		9196	34.65%		14.36m
JWD (adj)	---		174	3022		0/169	19614/22636	13.35%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.58403x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [21.81m adj]
JW3 = 3.26634x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [18.52m adj]
JW3 = 0.94025x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [19.46m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       468/6145  [7.62% sold]
Matinee:    181/1535  [11.79% | 5.68% of all tickets sold]

Can we add GvK. I think you might have missed my comment yday but all 3 unadjusted comps did really well in Canada. 

 

USA alone number of them will be $7.9M, $4.6M and $4.5M respectively. Not much impact though. Just $1M off.

Edited May 31, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Can we add GvK. I think you might have missed my comment yday but all 3 unadjusted comps did really well in Canada. 

 

USA alone number of them will be $7.9M, $4.6M and $4.5M respectively. Not much impact though. Just $1M off.

 

I saw your comment, just didn't have anything to say to it.  Was good info though. and I'll file it away in the back of my head.

 

As for GvK. I have to draw the line somewhere, and that's where I drew it.

1. No Regal
2. A shit-ton of Private Watch Parties
3. All Day Release vs 4pm previews

Three strikes and you're out, as the saying goes.  Pretty much any one of those would be a death-kneel, IMO, and all three together just make it a Absolutely Not situation.  Which is a shame as it would be a pretty decent comp otherwise.  But so many factors against it that I refuse to even do an unofficial comp.  

 

It was an interesting experiment at the time, but in the end all it really did was help me calibrate AQP II.  Aside from that, I've assigned it to the dustbin of history.

Edited May 31, 2022 by Porthos

[el sid]

The tickets for The Black Phone are on sale now.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/30/2022 at 7:11 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
JW3 Dominion	T-10	Jax	7	107	82	862	15,994	5.39%
		Phx	6	94	90	783	16,370	4.78%
		Ral	8	69	47	791	7,963	9.93%
	Total		21	270	219	2,436	40,327	6.04%
JW3+JP	T-10	Jax	5	5	5	152	811	18.74%
		Phx	6	6	8	319	638	50.00%
		Ral	7	7	6	136	688	19.77%
	Total		18	18	19	607	2,137	28.40%
Watcher	T-3	Jax	2	2	0	2	77	2.60%
		Phx	3	4	2	4	483	0.83%
		Ral	2	3	0	2	207	0.97%
	Total		7	9	2	8	767	1.04%

*New sales since Saturday*

 

JW3 T-10 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.04x (13.79m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - 1.46x (13.89m)

 - F9 - 3.01x (21.4m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.1x (16.22m)

 

I was gonna say it looked like a pretty good day until I realized I missed yesterday's update.  I guess two more normal days instead.  With Black Phone and Elvis going on sale in the next couple days, only a small window where this is the sole presale focus. Maybe today will be a bigger day.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
JW3 Dominion	T-9	Jax	7	107	64	926	15,994	5.79%
		Phx	6	94	70	853	16,370	5.21%
		Ral	8	71	33	824	8,239	10.00%
	Total		21	272	167	2,603	40,603	6.41%
JW3+JP	T-9	Jax	5	5	0	152	811	18.74%
		Phx	6	6	14	333	638	52.19%
		Ral	7	7	4	140	688	20.35%
	Total		18	18	18	625	2,137	29.25%
Watcher	T-2	Jax	2	2	3	5	77	6.49%
		Phx	3	4	0	4	483	0.83%
		Ral	2	3	0	2	207	0.97%
	Total		7	9	3	11	767	1.43%

 

JW3 T-9 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.06x (14.01m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .728x (12.81m)

 - Eternals - 1.45x (13.81m)

 - F9 - 3.01x (21.39m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.12x (16.49m)

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
JW3 Dominion	T-9	Jax	7	107	64	926	15,994	5.79%
		Phx	6	94	70	853	16,370	5.21%
		Ral	8	71	33	824	8,239	10.00%
	Total		21	272	167	2,603	40,603	6.41%
JW3+JP	T-9	Jax	5	5	0	152	811	18.74%
		Phx	6	6	14	333	638	52.19%
		Ral	7	7	4	140	688	20.35%
	Total		18	18	18	625	2,137	29.25%
Watcher	T-2	Jax	2	2	3	5	77	6.49%
		Phx	3	4	0	4	483	0.83%
		Ral	2	3	0	2	207	0.97%
	Total		7	9	3	11	767	1.43%

 

JW3 T-9 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.06x (14.01m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .728x (12.81m)

 - Eternals - 1.45x (13.81m)

 - F9 - 3.01x (21.39m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.12x (16.49m)

Okay so Im trying to do something useful and understand comps  more. So using JW3 to Black widow. Okay Im guessing T-9 (nine days before opening) means what JW3 is at 6.41 percent avg 9 days out. I think I get that. So I see Black widow at 1.06x 14.01 mil. Does that mean Black widow as at 1.06x percentage at T-9? And the 14.01 million, Im assuming thats the amount it made on the opening day? Or am I reading these numbers all wrong?

[M37]

Maybe its a holiday impact, perhaps TG2 is sucking up all the oxygen, but how I feel checking in on all these JWD updates

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Okay so Im trying to do something useful and understand comps  more. So using JW3 to Black widow. Okay Im guessing T-9 (nine days before opening) means what JW3 is at 6.41 percent avg 9 days out. I think I get that. So I see Black widow at 1.06x 14.01 mil. Does that mean Black widow as at 1.06x percentage at T-9? And the 14.01 million, Im assuming thats the amount it made on the opening day? Or am I reading these numbers all wrong?

 

Some of both I guess 😅.  Let me see if I can clear it up.

T-9 = nine days before previews day (t-0)

Black Widow at T-9 had sold 2,452 tickets for previews.  JW3 is at 2,603, or 106% of where Black Widow was at this time.

Black Widow made 13.2m in previews. 

106% of 13.2m is ~14.01m

 

This assumes that JW3 will continue to be at 106% of Black Widow, which doesn't really happen (thus the comps changing daily).  Essentially the comps are just projections based on comparisons of sales at the same point in the presale period.

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Some of both I guess 😅.  Let me see if I can clear it up.

T-9 = nine days before previews day (t-0)

Black Widow at T-9 had sold 2,452 tickets for previews.  JW3 is at 2,603, or 106% of where Black Widow was at this time.

Black Widow made 13.2m in previews. 

106% of 13.2m is ~14.01m

 

This assumes that JW3 will continue to be at 106% of Black Widow, which doesn't really happen (thus the comps changing daily).  Essentially the comps are just projections based on comparisons of sales at the same point in the presale period.

Ah, that does clarify thank you. I was merely using black widow as an example, not necessarily making a direct comparison to JW3. I think that's where I got confused, is that the 106 percent without the 2452 tickets sold number I lost context (NOT saying that not including those seat ticket numbers was a problem, not at all, just for me it was missing that bit of context). Now I also see the the comparing of what was actually made in previews vs the percentage at the time. 

 

Thank you so much, I understand it more clearly now (not quite confident to try and DO comps myself yet though....Im not brave enough lol) 

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/25/2022 at 3:13 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

366

2320

15.78%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

405

3250

12.46%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1846	50	25033	7.37%	15	154

 

AMCs sold	1332
Cinemarks sold	233
Regals sold	134
Harkins sold	147

 

1.46x Eternals T-15 (13.87M)

1.17x Black Widow T-15 (15.38M)

4.11x Fast 9 T-15 (29.19M)

 

No Top Gun or Batman comp today

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

463

2320

19.96%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

494

3250

15.20%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 6 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2395	549	27586	8.68%	15	173

 

AMCs sold	1651
Cinemarks sold	343
Regals sold	208
Harkins sold	193

 

0.647x Top Gun 2 T-9 (12.47M)

0.596x Batman T-9 (12.87M)

1.45x Eternals T-9 (13.75M)

1.17x Black Widow T-9 (15.44M)

3.78x Fast 9 T-9 (26.86M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/25/2022 at 3:16 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-15 Thursday(93 showings): 1533(+112)/26560

1.54x Eternals T-15 (14.64M)

0.754x Black Widow T-15 (9.96M)

 

T-16 Friday(150 showings): 1411(+83)/43519

2.05x Eternals T-16 (43.75M)

1.19x Black Widow T-16 (31.35M)

 

T-17 Saturday(158 showings): 985(+28)/45546

2.87x Eternals T-17 (69.27M)

 

T-18 Sunday(144 showings): 305(+41)/41066

3.55x Eternals T-18 (57.91M)

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-9 Thursday(99 showings): 2197(+664)/28556

0.499x Top Gun 2 T-9 (9.61M)

0.471x Batman T-9 (10.17M)

1.57x Eternals T-9 (14.93M)

0.878x Black Widow T-9 (11.60M)

 

T-10 Friday(150 showings): 2181(+770)/43519

0.522x Top Gun 2 T-10 (17.09M)

1.05x Batman T-10 (36.59M)

1.94x Eternals T-10 (41.33M)

1.22x Black Widow T-10 (32.03M)

 

T-11 Saturday(162 showings): 1566(+581)/46146

0.529x Top Gun 2 T-11 (20.11M)

1.43x Batman T-11 (61.92M)

2.80x Eternals T-11 (67.57M)

 

T-12 Sunday(144 showings): 535(+230)/41066

0.720x Top Gun 2 T-12 (26.41M)

2.00x Batman T-12 (68.41M)

4.28x Eternals T-12 (69.89M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/25/2022 at 3:17 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-15 Thursday(114 showings): 4269(+122)/17051 ATP: $14.27

 

T-16 Friday(175 showings): 3978(+149)/28240 ATP: $14.60

 

T-17 Saturday(183 showings): 3868(+112)/29437 ATP: $13.57

 

T-18 Sunday(148 showings): 1740(+85)/24294 ATP: $13.02

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-9 Thursday(114 showings): 5226(+957)/18561 ATP: $14.27

1.20x Top Gun 2 T-9 (17.69M)

0.539x Batman T-9 (9.49M)

 

T-10 Friday(181 showings): 5294(+1316)/28883 ATP: $14.52

1.06x Top Gun 2 T-10 (34.72M)

0.539x Batman T-10 (18.88M)

 

T-11 Saturday(190 showings): 5143(+1275)/30311 ATP: $13.64

1.11x Top Gun 2 T-11 (42.33M)

0.535x Batman T-11 (23.14M)

 

T-12 Sunday(155 showings): 2674(+934)/24924 ATP: $13.02

1.13x Top Gun 2 T-12 (41.44M)

0.635x Batman T-12 (21.67M)

 

I didn't start tracking the Tues+Wed showings for Top Gun 2 until the next day, so I'm only using the Thursday previews for the comp today. Not sure if we ever got an official split, but I used 14.76M

[motionpic05]

The Black Phone looks promising for a return to horror movies in 2022 (outside Scream).

I'm thinking $20M+ OW looks realistic.

[Bigscrubnus]

Can someone explain what the multipliers at the bottom mean to an idiot like me?

 

also is JWD tracking well?

[Alex SciChannel]

1 hour ago, motionpic05 said:

The Black Phone looks promising for a return to horror movies in 2022 (outside Scream).

I'm thinking $20M+ OW looks realistic.

Horror overperformers are interesting to me. Especially sleeper hits. I remember when everyone was surprised by Krampus making 16M in 2015 when people believed it would get 12M max. And Scary Stories was a pleasant surprise as I loved the books as a kid. But everyone said that film would do 10M but did 20M+

[EmpireCity]

I still think Black Phone can break out a lot higher than that.