The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BruiseCruise]

its a long ways away but this thread is really gonna be popping once avatar 2 presales start

[M37]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

 

 

Why do you think $125m is so low, what is your view based on? 
 

Literally the most recent update after these posts indicates previews under $15m. 

Because of the comps used in those updates, which really don’t reflect the expected trajectory from now through Thursday, and in those markets, which may not be reflective of overall sales 

 

There are far more indicators that a $15M Thursday is possible, but on the low end of range given total sales and trends at this time

[Joyous Legion]

21 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

its a long ways away but this thread is really gonna be popping once avatar 2 presales start

Probably not even among the top 2 PS runs remaining this year…

[Potiki]

13 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Probably not even among the top 2 PS runs remaining this year…

MCU vs. Jim Cameron: A Disney Story 

[CJohn]

Jesus, can someone be with @Brainbug the Dinosaur for the entire weekend and maybe even early next week? I am starting to think he needs to be on suicide watch the whole weekend. 125M is not even that crazy anymore considering some comparisons for previews,

Edited June 8, 2022 by CJohn

[Bigscrubnus]

42 minutes ago, M37 said:

Because of the comps used in those updates, which really don’t reflect the expected trajectory from now through Thursday, and in those markets, which may not be reflective of overall sales 

 

There are far more indicators that a $15M Thursday is possible, but on the low end of range given total sales and trends at this time

*sees Shawn liked this*
 

hope intensifying 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

*sees Shawn liked this*
 

hope intensifying 

I dont want to speak for Shawn but he is not going by presales. Its more about details of industry tracking which is around Awareness/Definite Interest/First Choice numbers across different demos. If that is consistent he would go with his prediction. Sometimes you are right and sometimes you are off(both too high or low). Example would be Eternals. Early tracking was higher than actuals as though there was initial awareness, final week interest waned post reviews. 

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-eternals/

[Brainbug]

17 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Jesus, can someone be with @Brainbug the Dinosaur for the entire weekend and maybe even early next week? I am starting to think he needs to be on suicide watch the whole weekend. 125M is not even that crazy anymore considering some comparisons for previews,

 

Ill be fine.

 

Spoiler

 

[motionpic05]

This is going to sound like a really weird and strange thing to say, but I'm new to the Box Office game. 

Is Universal in a really bad state (especially if Jurassic underperforms)

 

The 355, Marry Me, Ambulance, Firestarter have all bombed. 

Could they be in trouble?

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, BruiseCruise said:

its a long ways away but this thread is really gonna be popping once avatar 2 presales start

yeaaaa....thats going to be a fun time.........gotta wonder how early they do presales for it......lessee Dec 16 is release date. have to think it would at least be post US Thanksgiving, maybe early to Mid Nov.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

yeaaaa....thats going to be a fun time.........gotta wonder how early they do presales for it......lessee Dec 16 is release date. have to think it would at least be post US Thanksgiving, maybe early to Mid Nov.

May be they will start on Spider Monday

[Tinalera]

1 minute ago, motionpic05 said:

This is going to sound like a really weird and strange thing to say, but I'm new to the Box Office game. 

Is Universal in a really bad state (especially if Jurassic underperforms)

 

The 355, Marry Me, Ambulance, Firestarter have all bombed. 

Could they be in trouble?

Welcome the forums!  Universal has Jurassic, Fast/Furious, Minions/Despicable, Secret Life of Pets, Sing franchises just off top of my head. An underperform won't devastate them I don't think.

 

Keeping this in the context of box office discussion to keep it on track, I think this movie even with a (for them) quieter opening, its summer holidays and I think in that context not to judge on the opening weekend because lots of families with time on their hands will have lots of walkups during June summertime stuff.

 

Enjoy the forum! There are a lot of awesome people here and my joining certainly opened up my eyes as to how the box office really works, alot of knowledge here

[BruiseCruise]

1 hour ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Probably not even among the top 2 PS runs remaining this year…

Nah, we all know Thor and BP2 are gonna do crazy well in presales and overall, A2 presales will generate more discussion imo 

[Potiki]

16 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

This is going to sound like a really weird and strange thing to say, but I'm new to the Box Office game. 

Is Universal in a really bad state (especially if Jurassic underperforms)

 

The 355, Marry Me, Ambulance, Firestarter have all bombed. 

Could they be in trouble?

As a company they are not in trouble, they are owned by Comcast so have plenty of money for now to function. If Comcast decides to sell or spinoff NBCUniversal I'm sure there will be plenty of bidders for their Theme Park division alone. 

 

From Box Office/film business standpoint they have not been doing as well as they did in 2015 but their studio division has still been profitable, although somewhat challenged through COVID, they have 2 big Pay 1 deals with Amazon and Netflix as well as with their own streamer Peacock that makes their films money, they make money on PVOD and other EST, money from physical media etc all on top of whatever box office they make. Even if JW3 has a disappointing run it will likely be profitable or that very least close to breakeven from theatrical alone and then all those other revenue streams kick in as well. 

[Bigscrubnus]

So when does the Box office pro article drop tomorrow?

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

So when does the Box office pro article drop tomorrow?

 

When Shawn posts it.

[motionpic05]

Lightyear hasn't sold any pre sale tickets yet. 

I could see it underperforming. Maybe $60 million OW.

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Probably not even among the top 2 PS runs remaining this year…

 

Well, also, unless a lot more people start tracking specifically for Avatar(and I wouldn't put it past them) then it's the same amount of people updating their numbers the same as they always do.  

[XXR & Friends]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Really early numbers. 

 

Lightyear MTC1

Wed Early Shows - 834/34066 19368.50

Thu Previews - 10661/516207 192147.77

 

Its still early as PS just started today. I think previews will not be trivial for sure. 

 

10 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Lightyear hasn't sold any pre sale tickets yet. 

I could see it underperforming. Maybe $60 million OW.

[John Marston]

14 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Lightyear hasn't sold any pre sale tickets yet. 

I could see it underperforming. Maybe $60 million OW.

 

 

seeing some predictions of it opening like the last two Toy Story films. I’m not sure why