The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Goldenhour36]

On 8/24/2022 at 1:05 AM, Goldenhour36 said:

The Invitation (Tracking Day 1) 

 

AMC DINE-IN Disney Springs 24 

 

Thursday Showings: 

4:00 PM (Digital): 22 Tickets sold, 6.11% of seats (360) are sold 

6:45 PM (Digital): 33 Tickets sold, 9.17% of seats (360) are sold 

9:30 PM (Digital): 26 Tickets sold, 7.22% of seats (360) are sold 

 

Friday Showings: 

1:15 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 2 Tickets sold, 1.82% of seats (110) are sold 

4:00 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (110) are sold 

9:00 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 3 Tickets sold, 2.73% of seats (110) are sold 

 

Total: 86 Tickets sold, 6.10% of seats (1410) are sold 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 1): 944 Tickets sold, 37.50% of seats (2517) are sold (x0.091) 

Fall (Tracking Day 1): 30 Tickets sold, 5.57% of seats (539) are sold (x2.867) 

 

Island Cinemas (St.Simon) 

No Showings Yet 

 

Valdosta Cinemas 

 

Thursday Showings: 

4:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold 

7:45 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold 

10:15 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold 

 

Friday Showings: 

12:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold 

2:35 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold 

5:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold 

7:40 PM (Standard): 2 Tickets sold, 1.32% of seats (151) are sold 

10:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold 

 

Total: 2 Tickets sold, 0.13% of seats (1541) are sold 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 1): 1 Tickets sold, 0.03% of seats (2916) are sold (x2.000) 

 

SUM Total: 

88 Tickets sold, 2.98% of seats (2951) are sold 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 1): 945 Tickets sold, 14.57% of seats (6085) are sold (x0.093) ($1,817,098) 

Fall (Tracking Day 1): 30 Tickets sold, 5.57% of seats (539) are sold (x2.933) ($2,719,122) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Missed Tracking Day 2 

 

The Invitation (Final Tracking) (Previews start at 4:00 PM) 

 

AMC DINE-IN Disney Springs 24  

 

Thursday Showings: 

4:00 PM (Digital): 39 Tickets sold, 10.83% of seats (360) are sold (17 New Tickets, 77.27% Increase) 

6:45 PM (Digital): 93 Tickets sold, 25.83% of seats (360) are sold (60 New Tickets, 181.82% Increase) 

9:30 PM (Digital): 47 Tickets sold, 13.06% of seats (360) are sold (21 New Tickets, 80.77% Increase) 

 

Friday Showings: 

1:15 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 19 Tickets sold, 17.27% of seats (110) are sold (17 New Tickets, 850% Increase) 

4:00 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 10 Tickets sold, 9.09% of seats (110) are sold (10 New Tickets, 100% Increase) 

6:45 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 31 Tickets sold, 28.18% of seats (110) are sold (New Show) 

9:45 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 32 Tickets sold, 29.09% of seats (110) are sold (New Show) 

 

Total: 271 Tickets sold, 17.83% of seats (1520) are sold (185 New Tickets, 215.12% Increase) 

Comps 

Nope (Final Tracking): 1746 Tickets sold, 34.93% of seats (4999) are sold (x0.155) 

Fall (Final Tracking): 72 Tickets sold, 13.36% of seats (539) are sold (x3.764) 

 

9:00 PM Friday Showing was removed 

 

Island Cinemas (St.Simon) 

Theater is not playing this movie 

 

Valdosta Cinemas 

 

Thursday Showings: 

4:30 PM (Standard): 2 Tickets sold, 1.32% of seats (151) are sold (2 New Tickets, 100% Increase) 

7:45 PM (Standard): 3 Tickets sold, 1.99% of seats (151) are sold (3 New Tickets, 100% Increase) 

10:15 PM (Standard): 3 Tickets sold, 1.99% of seats (151) are sold (3 New Tickets, 100% Increase) 

 

Friday Showings: 

12:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

2:35 PM (Standard): 1 Tickets sold, 0.66% of seats (151) are sold (1 New Tickets, 100% Increase) 

5:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

7:40 PM (Standard): 7 Tickets sold, 4.64% of seats (151) are sold (5 New Tickets, 250% Increase) 

10:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Total: 16 Tickets sold, 1.04% of seats (1541) are sold (14 New Tickets, 700% Increase) 

Comps 

Nope (Final Tracking): 47 Tickets sold, 1.55% of seats (3033) are sold (x0.340) 

Fall (Final Tracking): 3 Tickets sold, 0.41% of seats (734) are sold (x5.333) 

 

SUM Total: 

287 Tickets sold, 9.38% of seats (3061) are sold (199 New Tickets, 226.10% Increase) 

Comps 

Nope (Final Tracking): 1799 Tickets sold, 19.80% of seats (9084) are sold (x0.160) ($3,126,190) 

Fall (Final Tracking): 75 Tickets sold, 5.89% of seats (1273) are sold (x3.827) ($3,547,931) 

 

Average Final Comps: ($3,337,060) According to Comps, It will most likely make around $8-9M. 

Edited August 26, 2022 by Goldenhour36

[Issac Newton]

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	The Invitation (Sony / Screen Gems)	$8.3 M	$8.3 M	NEW	1
2	Bullet Train (Sony / Columbia)	$5.9 M	$78.5 M	-26%	4
3	Beast (Universal)	$5.4 M	$20.6 M	-53%	2
4	Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount)	$5.3 M	$691.8 M	-10%	14
5	Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero (Crunchyroll)	$4.8 M	$31.0 M	-77%	2
6	DC League of Super-Pets (Warner Bros.)	$4.7 M	$74.6 M	-17%	5
7	Three Thousand Years of Longing (United Artists Releasing / MGM)	$4.4 M	$4.4 M	NEW	1
8	Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney)	$3.2 M	$337.1 M	-21%	8
9	Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal)	$3.0 M	$355.0 M	-19%	9
10	Where the Crawdads Sing (Sony / Columbia)	$2.4 M	$81.9 M	-25%	7
11	Nope (Universal)	$2.3 M	$117.7 M	-36%	6

[John2015]

"Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul." will only open in 1800 theaters, but the film is actually getting much bigger TV marketing than "Three Thousand Years of Longing"...

 

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252490830-Theater-counts-a-trio-of-wide-releases-debut-but-Beast-makes-its-way-to-widest-release

[Eric Prime]

22 hours ago, Eric the Genie said:

Rogue One Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Wednesday Before Release (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	10	346	2529	13.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp

1.442x of E.T. Wednesday Before Release (705.2K)

Rogue One Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	10	385	2529	15.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 39

 

Comp

1.481x of E.T. (724.3K)

[John2015]

Sept movies

 

I had already seen the TV spots of "The Woman King" and "Don’t Worry, Darling"....

 

But I still hadn't seen any TV spot of  "Barbarian"  (which will open eariler than those two films)

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, John2015 said:

"Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul." will only open in 1800 theaters, but the film is actually getting much bigger TV marketing than "Three Thousand Years of Longing"...

 

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252490830-Theater-counts-a-trio-of-wide-releases-debut-but-Beast-makes-its-way-to-widest-release

Keep in mind Honk for Jesus will also be available to watch on Peacock at the same time.

[Goldenhour36]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Keep in mind Honk for Jesus will also be available to watch on Peacock at the same time.

 

I think it can open higher than Firestarter but way lower than Marry Me.

[Inceptionzq]

On 8/23/2022 at 7:52 AM, Inceptionzq said:

Rogue One Re-Release Friday

 

AMC: 11555 sold

Cinemark: 904 sold

Megaplex: 754 sold

 

Counted this yesterday just out of curiosity since it's a small enough release that I could get most of it. Might as well post it I guess. Not 100% sure if I got all the AMC theaters, but should be close enough if I didn't.

Rogue One Re-Release Friday

 

AMC: 15250(+3695) sold

Cinemark: 1260(+356) sold

Megaplex: 1011(+257) sold

[charlie Jatinder]

Harkins Thursday

 

The Invitation - 1193/19450 (89 showings) $13,020

 

Looks like $750-800K previews. 

 

3000 Years of Longing - 320/18079 (81 showings) $3,343

 

Yeah this ain't doing well here. At all. Normally an under-indexing title would probably be around $225K, but this seems to be selling a lot better in East.

[Krissykins]

3000 Years of Longing just looks so unappealing. I love Tilda, but this looks like a nightmare. 

[Eric Prime]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/25/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
9/2/2022	Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.	$1,500,000 – $3,500,000		$3,500,000 – $8,500,000		Focus Features
9/2/2022	Jaws (IMAX and RealD 3D Re-Release)	$1,500,000 – $3,000,000				Universal Pictures
9/2/2022	Spider-Man: No Way Home (Re-Issue)					Sony Pictures / Columbia & Marvel Studios
9/9/2022	Barbarian	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000		$22,000,000 – $37,000,000		20th Century Studios
9/9/2022	Brahmastra Part 1: Shiva					Disney / Fox Star
9/16/2022	God’s Country					IFC Films
9/16/2022	Running the Bases					UP2U Films
9/16/2022	See How They Run					Searchlight Pictures
9/16/2022	The Silent Twins					Focus Features
9/16/2022	The Woman King	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000		$42,000,000 – $67,000,000		Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022	Avatar (2022 Re-Release)	$10,000,000 – $20,000,000		$20,000,000 – $50,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/23/2022	Don’t Worry Darling	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$30,000,000 – $50,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures

[M37]

1 minute ago, Eric the Genie said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/25/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
9/2/2022	Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.	$1,500,000 – $3,500,000		$3,500,000 – $8,500,000		Focus Features
9/2/2022	Jaws (IMAX and RealD 3D Re-Release)	$1,500,000 – $3,000,000				Universal Pictures
9/2/2022	Spider-Man: No Way Home (Re-Issue)					Sony Pictures / Columbia & Marvel Studios
9/9/2022	Barbarian	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000		$22,000,000 – $37,000,000		20th Century Studios
9/9/2022	Brahmastra Part 1: Shiva					Disney / Fox Star
9/16/2022	God’s Country					IFC Films
9/16/2022	Running the Bases					UP2U Films
9/16/2022	See How They Run					Searchlight Pictures
9/16/2022	The Silent Twins					Focus Features
9/16/2022	The Woman King	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000		$42,000,000 – $67,000,000		Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022	Avatar (2022 Re-Release)	$10,000,000 – $20,000,000		$20,000,000 – $50,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/23/2022	Don’t Worry Darling	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$30,000,000 – $50,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures

They are far more optimistic about the September slate than I am …

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, M37 said:

They are far more optimistic about the September slate than I am …

The Woman King and Don't Worry Darling's numbers look pretty reasonable to me? One is a historical drama that actually looks entertaining, the other is a starry thriller (that's also been generating plenty of off-camera gossip lol). Both will be premiering at major film festivals soon so we're about to find out what their real potential is.

Edited August 26, 2022 by filmlover

[Krissykins]

I think Don’t Worry Darling could breakout. Hopefully it does. I’m certainly seeing it everywhere already on social media. 

[filmlover]

Smaller Theater Owners “Not Losing a Lot of Sleep” Over Limited Film Slate This Fall https://t.co/hk5oFZzkpB

— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) August 26, 2022

[Eric Prime]

I'm uncertain about DWD at the moment, but Woman King feels like it has a good chance at a breakout and a 20M+ opening. The movie's ads are pretty effective, because they're selling it less as a historical drama  (though granted it's still there, though arguably inaccurate), and more as a fun and empowering action film. Plus the Dahomey were an inspiration for the Dora Milaje and I think Black Panther has helped sell the movie here. Of course this is also reliant on TIFF reception, which isn't always great. Hope things turn out well though.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/19/2022 at 8:52 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Beast	3,225	57,591		52,302		5,289	0	0
Bullet Train	3,087	36,451	-35.83%	35,961	235.98	490	229	0
Super-Pets	2,964	33,256	-17.40%	33,180	173.94	76	0	0
Dragon Ball Super	2,856	62,110		52,371		9,739	4,393	0
Top Gun 2	2,576	28,056	-15.37%	27,646	212.74	410	247	0
Bodies Bodies Bodies	2,363	29,586	69.88%	29,528	159.31	58	0	0
Thor 4	2,324	26,419	-16.30%	26,334	170.38	85	0	40
Minions 2	2,299	25,621	-21.83%	25,502	152.63	119	0	79
Crawdads	2,187	22,464	-17.02%	22,417	147.81	47	0	0
Nope	2,106	22,116	-23.46%	22,086	185.70	30	0	0
Fall	1,399	15,554	-18.44%	15,512	115.85	42	0	0
Elvis	1,381	10,252	-31.42%	10,228	172.77	24	0	0
Easter Sunday	1,247	8,037	-75.16%	8,034	74.41	3	0	0
Mack & Rita	1,011	6,545	-68.36%	6,526	41.99	19	0	0
The Black Phone	573	4,088	-41.00%	4,088	147.52	0	0	0
Emliy the Criminal	462	3,712	-38.88%	3,712	100.40	0	0	0
Laal Singh Chaddha	443	3,079	-36.00%	3,071	309.07	8	0	0
Jurassic World 3	431	2,598	-44.21%	2,596	142.27	2	0	2
Mrs. Harris	275	1,787	-51.78%	1,784	91.09	3	0	0

 

US Showtime Sample for 8/19/22 Weekend

 

OW shows comps

Dragon Ball Super - 62,110 (2,856 TC) (9,739 PLF)

 - Snake Eyes - 64,832 (3,008) (4,214 IMAX)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241) (9,143 PLF)

 

Beast - 57,591 (3,225 TC) (5,289 PLF)

 - Old - 56,613 (2,958)

 - Death on the Nile - 56,756 (2,935) (8,915 PLF)

 - Black Phone - 59,993 (2,800) (495 PLF)

 

T-1 Week

Three Thousand Years of Longing - 21,989 (1,690 TC)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 22,666 (2,163)

 - Massive Talent - 21,853 (1,815)

The Invitation - 21,624 (1,619 TC)

 - Blacklight - 19,740 (1,627)

 - The Northman - 22,383 (1,935)

 - Last Night in Soho - 20,306 (1,787)

Breaking - 6,778 (515 TC)

 - Umma - 6,971 (506)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
The Invitation	2,655	43,127		40,148		2,979	0	0
Dragon Ball Super	2,752	40,241	-23.73%	37,099	339.98	3,142	775	0
Beast	3,131	39,313	-21.75%	38,731	201.00	582	0	0
Years of Longing	2,230	32,529		31,521		1,008	0	0
Bullet Train	2,821	30,576	-16.12%	30,466	220.21	110	0	0
Super-Pets	2,731	27,836	-16.30%	27,758	170.90	78	0	0
Top Gun 2	2,465	26,421	-5.83%	25,355	210.80	1,066	402	0
Thor 4	2,047	21,885	-17.16%	21,812	153.88	73	0	30
Minions 2	2,130	20,824	-18.72%	20,641	145.35	183	0	155
Crawdads	1,870	19,050	-15.20%	19,015	142.57	35	0	0
Nope	1,621	15,462	-30.09%	15,445	161.98	17	0	0
Breaking	891	12,196		12,171		25	0	0
Bodies Bodies	1,692	11,614	-60.74%	11,582	89.42	32	0	0
Elvis	1,500	10,684	+4.21%	9,109	193.36	1,575	301	0
Jurassic World 3	1,290	7,300	+180.99%	7,100	205.38	200	0	189
Orphan: First Kill	518	6,543		6,532		11	0	0
Fall	731	4,986	-67.94%	4,986	85.13	0	0	0
Easter Sunday	304	2,581	-67.89%	2,581	115.98	0	0	0
Rogue One	243	2,431		0		2,431	2,431	0
The Black Phone	316	2,294	-43.88%	2,294	136.14	0	0	0

 

US Showtime Sample for 8/26/22 Weekend

 

OW shows comps

The Invitation - 43,127 (2,655 TC)

 - Escape Room 2 - 45,204 (2,482)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 43,638 (2,644)

 - Cry Macho - 42,749 (3,268)

Three Thousand Years of Longing - 32,529 (2,230 TC)

 - Memory - 31,063 (2,233)

 - Many Saints - 32,703 (2,807)

 - Last Duel - 32,124 (2,731)

 - Protege - 33,889 (2,304)

Breaking - 12,196 (891 TC)

 - Umma - 11,404 (739)

 - Mrs. Harris - 13,334 (935)

 - Wolf and the Lamb - 12,069 (938)

 - Spencer - 11,579 (840)

 

T-1 Week*

Honk for Jesus - 11,931 (1,249 TC)

No Way Home - 15,478 (1,821 TC)

Jaws - 6,606 (847 TC)

Gigi & Nate - 6,521 (644 TC)

 

*As mentioned previously, Saturday 9/3 shows are not populated for the most part.  

[M37]

46 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Woman King and Don't Worry Darling's numbers look pretty reasonable to me? One is a historical drama that actually looks entertaining, the other is a starry thriller (that's also been generating plenty of off-camera gossip lol). Both will be premiering at major film festivals soon so we're about to find out what their real potential is.

It’s just difficult for me to look at the past 18 months of largely mediocre results for non-IP adult-focused titles - especially last September’s trainwreck - and be hopeful for a breakout over next month.
 

Barbarian looks forgettable, think Woman King struggles to connect with GA especially for OW, Darling I wont’t be surprised if it gets mid to high teens given cast and ubiquitous advertising, and Avatar … we’ll see. Do think both WK and DWD can have good WOM and leggy runs, just not great/breakout OWs. Overall, not expecting anything to hit $20M OW (if not $15M) until Halloween, with the possible exception of a potential breakout from Smile, given horror track record for September 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

It’s just difficult for me to look at the past 18 months of largely mediocre results for non-IP adult-focused titles - especially last September’s trainwreck - and be hopeful for a breakout over next month.
 

Barbarian looks forgettable, think Woman King struggles to connect with GA especially for OW, Darling I wont’t be surprised if it gets mid to high teens given cast and ubiquitous advertising, and Avatar … we’ll see. Do think both WK and DWD can have good WOM and leggy runs, just not great/breakout OWs. Overall, not expecting anything to hit $20M OW (if not $15M) until Halloween, with the possible exception of a potential breakout from Smile, given horror track record for September 

I wouldn't rule out a $20M+ opening for Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile which will be the first family film since Super-Pets (and the last until Strange World Thanksgiving weekend).

[WrathOfHan]

Been saying for months now Don't Worry Darling is going to open low. Never understood this 20M+ talk.