The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

Looks about right for the October 21 openers though wouldn't be surprised if Ticket to Paradise does even better than that. I never understood why some people were predicting "huge bomb" status for Black Adam in the first place.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Looks about right for the October 21 openers though wouldn't be surprised if Ticket to Paradise does even better than that. I never understood why some people were predicting "huge bomb" status for Black Adam in the first place.

Ticket to Paradise has done very well overseas. Now these films at times does better overseas but still, AUS start is equivalent of $30M.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Don't Worry, Darling	3,387	66,697		63,470		3,227	267	0
Avatar	1,614	24,152		2,269		21,883	3,149	18,291
Railway Children	828	9,998		9,988		10	0	0
Moonage Daydream	626	7,566		7,175		391	371	0
On the Come Up	519	6,680		6,655		25	0	0
Cuando Sea Joven	290	3,911		3,900		11	0	0
The Woman King	3,070	40,855		39,500		1,355	8	0
Barbarian	2,410	28,412		28,333		79	0	0
Pearl	2,592	24,956		24,893		63	0	0
See How They Run	2,067	23,570		23,517		53	0	0
Super-Pets	1,908	14,940		14,881		59	0	0
Bullet Train	1,420	14,217		14,143		74	0	0
Top Gun: Maverick	1,599	13,779		13,614		165	3	0
The Invitation	1,307	10,983		10,907		76	0	0
Minions: The Rise of Gru	1,192	9,417		9,379		38	0	22
Crawdads	728	5,316		5,305		11	0	0
Running the Bases	656	4,993		4,967		26	0	0
Beast	564	4,418		4,390		28	0	0
Lifemark	474	3,443		3,440		3	0	0
Dragon Ball Super	280	2,147		2,147		0	0	0
Brahmastra Part 1	257	1,866		1,866		0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 9/23 Weekend

 

Was out of town the last few weeks, so no change or PSA from last week.

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Don't Worry, Darling - 66,697 (3,387 TC)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241)

 - Snake Eyes - 64,832 (3,008)

 - Downton Abbey - 67,324 (3,284)

 

Avatar - 24,152 (1,614 TC)

 - MHA:WHM - 25,807 (1,504)

 

*91% of Avatar's shows are PLF this weekend

 

Railway Children - 9,998 (828 TC)

 - Mouthful of Air - 10,035 (782)

 - Tiger Rising - 10,246 (801)

 - Watcher - 10,477 (732)

 - Roadrunner - 10,268 (848)

 

On the Come Up - 6,680 (519 TC)

 - Emily the Criminal - 6,665 (454)

 - Card Counter - 6,895 (542)

 - Lamb - 6,740 (541)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Smile (9/27 EA) - 418 (414 TC)

Smile - 27,557 (2,196 TC)

 - Ambulance - 27,883 (2,198)

 - Where the Crawdads Sing - 29,677 (2,121)

 - Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830)

 

Bros - 25,620 (2,161 TC)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321)

 - Dog - 26,312 (2,172)

 - Easter Sunday - 27,805 (1,950)

 

T-2 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile - 3,960 (1,424 TC)

 - Clifford - 4,120 (1,410)

 - Addams Family - 3,759 (1,429)

 

Amsterdam - 2,546 (1,441 TC)

 - Beast - 2,330 (845)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 2,599 (1,511)

 - Resident Evil - 2,532 (936)

 

Terrifier 2 - 847 (658 TC)

 - Vengeance - 838 (455)

 - Bodies Bodies Bodies - 881 (495)

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Looks about right for the October 21 openers though wouldn't be surprised if Ticket to Paradise does even better than that. I never understood why some people were predicting "huge bomb" status for Black Adam in the first place.

I think Black Adam is underperforming that tracking unless reviews are good. Second trailer did quite poorly (as is alluded to in the BOP piece), and in general the marketing after the first teaser hasn't really created much buzz. I suspect this is gonna be one of the cases where initial interest doesn't really translate into a strong OW. 

[John2015]

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think Black Adam is underperforming that tracking unless reviews are good. Second trailer did quite poorly (as is alluded to in the BOP piece), and in general the marketing after the first teaser hasn't really created much buzz. I suspect this is gonna be one of the cases where initial interest doesn't really translate into a strong OW. 

The Rock's movies tend to underperform in tracking, and have a lot of walk-up audience.

[filmlover]

26 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think Black Adam is underperforming that tracking unless reviews are good. Second trailer did quite poorly (as is alluded to in the BOP piece), and in general the marketing after the first teaser hasn't really created much buzz. I suspect this is gonna be one of the cases where initial interest doesn't really translate into a strong OW. 

We'll see. Between Johnson being unquestionably a draw in projects like this, the DC brand, and the fact the marketplace is going to be starved for anything resembling an event picture by that point, I really can't see it opening below $50M.

[charlie Jatinder]

For Smile keep in mind there are EA on 27th.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Don't Worry Darling T-4: 32.02% Awareness, 5.17 Interest

Comps (All Final): Stillwater w/ 36.44% Awareness & 5.73 Interest, Dear Evan Hansen 31.52% & 4.92, Dog w/ 51.92% & 5.88, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 32.67% & 5.42

 

Final General Awareness: 26% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 67% chance of double digits, 50% over 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 80% chance over 5M, 40% chance over 10M

Original - Low Interest: 64% chance over 5M, 36% chance over 10M

 

There are a couple more (not on the carousel yet oddly, though I'm sure they'll update soon), but I wanted to get to this first before the previews dropped.

[el sid]

13 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

can it go beyond 12m?

I have no idea. Especially without the possibility to see how good the walk-ups are 🤔.

Without Thursday previews this number is even harder to reach but I don't rule it out  - because of the solid Saturday sales and the reports (e.g. from Canada) that it's selling well on Friday too.

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Avatar (Fri)	PLF	34	471	471	5,340	8.82%	$17.21	$8,106.03
		Standard	12	33	33	1,604	2.06%	$10.57	$348.84
	Total		46	504	504	6,944	7.26%	$16.78	$8,454.87
T-1	Don't Worry (Fri)	PLF	16	332	332	4,191	7.92%	$15.04	$4,993.77
		Standard	68	206	206	8,705	2.37%	$11.73	$2,415.69
	Total		84	538	538	12,896	4.17%	$13.77	$7,409.46

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Avatar (Fri)	N	24	393	393	3,872	10.15%	$17.85	$7,016.35
		Y	22	111	111	3,072	3.61%	$12.96	$1,438.52
	Total		46	504	504	6,944	7.26%	$16.78	$8,454.87
T-1	Don't Worry (Fri)	N	41	458	458	6,018	7.61%	$14.29	$6,545.57
		Y	43	80	80	6,878	1.16%	$10.80	$863.89
	Total		84	538	538	12,896	4.17%	$13.77	$7,409.46

 

Don't Worry Fri comps

Crawdads - 1.123x (5.91m)

Elvis - missed

Black Phone - missed

Bullet Train - 1.486x (12.25m)

Nope - .607x (7.98m)

 

Pretty spread out so far - interested to see where the other two comps end up

 

Avatar Fri comps

JW3 - .05x (2.05m)

NWH - .028x (2m)

 

Not sure about comps for this

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Avatar (Fri)	PLF	34	207	678	5,340	12.70%	$16.85	$11,422.80
		Standard	12	27	60	1,604	3.74%	$11.09	$665.18
	Total		46	234	738	6,944	10.63%	$16.38	$12,087.98
	Don't Worry (Fri)	PLF	16	105	437	4,191	10.43%	$15.01	$6,559.85
		Standard	68	227	433	8,705	4.97%	$11.89	$5,146.69
	Total		84	332	870	12,896	6.75%	$13.46	$11,706.54
T-1	Avatar (Sat)	PLF	34	401	401	5,340	7.51%	$16.70	$6,697.09
		Standard	12	34	34	1,604	2.12%	$9.63	$327.45
	Total		46	435	435	6,944	6.26%	$16.15	$7,024.54
	Don't Worry (Sat)	PLF	16	175	175	4,175	4.19%	$14.40	$2,519.96
		Standard	68	174	174	8,645	2.01%	$11.20	$1,948.00
	Total		84	349	349	12,820	2.72%	$12.80	$4,467.96

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Avatar (Fri)	N	24	190	583	3,872	15.06%	$17.35	$10,116.50
		Y	22	44	155	3,072	5.05%	$12.72	$1,971.48
	Total		46	234	738	6,944	10.63%	$16.38	$12,087.98
	Don't Worry (Fri)	N	41	265	723	6,018	12.01%	$14.06	$10,168.80
		Y	43	67	147	6,878	2.14%	$10.46	$1,537.74
	Total		84	332	870	12,896	6.75%	$13.46	$11,706.54
T-1	Avatar (Sat)	N	24	237	237	3,872	6.12%	$18.65	$4,419.79
		Y	22	198	198	3,072	6.45%	$13.16	$2,604.75
	Total		46	435	435	6,944	6.26%	$16.15	$7,024.54
	Don't Worry (Sat)	N	41	199	199	6,014	3.31%	$14.57	$2,900.25
		Y	43	150	150	6,806	2.20%	$10.45	$1,567.71
	Total		84	349	349	12,820	2.72%	$12.80	$4,467.96

 

Don't Worry Fri comps

Crawdads - 1.093x (5.75m)

Elvis - .357x (3.3m)

Black Phone - .564x (4.08m)

Bullet Train - .96x (7.91m)

Nope - .47x (6.17m)

 

Still a pretty large range.  I would guess we see somewhere around 5.8m true Friday based on these.

 

Don't Worry Sat T-1 comps

Crawdads - .786x (4.21m)

Elvis - missed

Black Phone - missed

Bullet Train - .661x (6.4m)

Nope - .43x (5.99m)

 

Avatar Fri comps

JW3 - .05x (2.06m)

NWH - .034x (2.44m)

 

Not sure about comps for this.  Looking like it could hit maybe 2.6m with the heavy PLF skew.

 

Avatar Sat T-1 comps

Missed JW3 and NWH T-1.  

[Flopped]

I'm curious why Smile dropped 21% in the forecast. I've been bombarded with promo for it. 

[Flopped]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Looks about right for the October 21 openers though wouldn't be surprised if Ticket to Paradise does even better than that. I never understood why some people were predicting "huge bomb" status for Black Adam in the first place.

In the 90s Julia Roberts famously counter-programmed to great effect

 

My Best Friend's Wedding opened against Batman & Robin (and outgrossed it in the end) 

 

Notting Hill opened the Memorial Day Weekend after Phantom Menace (and did huge business) 

 

Curious how she fares against Black Adam 

 

 

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates cont.

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile T-15: 30.28% Awareness, 4.85 Interest

Black Adam T-29: 49.81%, 5.88

Ticket to Paradise T-29: 28.96%, 5.25

Call Jane T-36: 19.41%, 4.875

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-225: 54.45%, 6.79

 

Smile T-8: 33.54% Awareness, 5.60 Interest

Comps (All Final): Old w/ 34.26% Awareness & 5.62 Interest, Candyman 38.61% & 4.67, The Black Phone w/ 40% & 5.94, Nope w/ 44.26% & 6.08

 *Note the Final number for Smile is subject to change in the coming days*

 

Final General Awareness: 26% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 88% chance of double-digit opening, 76% over 20M

Horror Awareness: 78% chance of double-digit opening, 55% over 20M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of double-digit opening, 75% over 20M

 

Prey for the Devil T-36: 22.31% Awareness, 5.09 Interest

Comps (All T-30): Don't Breathe 2 w/ 27.21% Awareness & 4.65 Interest, The Night House w/ 16.82% & 5.15, Candyman w/ 26.81% & 4.72, The Black Phone w/ 23.67% & 5.33

 

T-30 General Awareness: 32% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 72% chance of double-digit opening

Horror Awareness: At above 20%, 87% chance of double-digit opening. Below 25%, a 25% chance of double-digit opening

Horror Interest: 62.5% chance of double-digit opening

[Cmasterclay]

That seems pretty good for Smile, no? Seems likely it opens number one next weekend above Bros and week two of DWD.

[Tinalera]

4 hours ago, Maggie said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Black Adam ($55-70M Opening/$135-175M Domestic Total) and Ticket to Paradise ($12-17M Opening/$40-65M Domestic Total)

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-black-adam-and-ticket-to-paradise/

 

 

I will never not be intrigued when Openings for movie opening predictions that haven't/or barely started selling tickets. That whole thing of trends, observing numbers from trailers ect, combined with using past history to make a call on a movie that is over a month away-theres some really funky demo numbers/trends/math/magic/mojo combination going on to bring forth the numbers, always tickles me to see it.

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

For Smile keep in mind there are EA on 27th.

I personally am not tracking the EA just because Ive got enough going on just to get the Thurs/Friday numbers in there-even then Im not getting those every day yet-hopefully now at a week out I can get some daily counts.

[ThomasNicole]

Unless it ended up being frontloaded for some reason, presales is showing +10M for Avatar quite easily imo. 

 

Very happy with this so far

[Eric Prime]

16 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

That seems pretty good for Smile, no? Seems likely it opens number one next weekend above Bros and week two of DWD.

I’d be surprised if it didn’t. Should hit the same high teens as Woman King/DWD

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/22/2022 at 10:43 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bros	T-7	Jax	4	8	1	1	804	0.12%
		Phx	4	7	6	6	1,197	0.50%
		Ral	7	13	6	6	1,572	0.38%
	T-7 Total		15	28	13	13	3,573	0.36%
Don't Worry	T-0	Jax	5	28	248	248	4,335	5.72%
		Phx	7	21	524	524	3,539	14.81%
		Ral	8	24	307	307	3,025	10.15%
	T-0 Total		20	73	1,079	1,079	10,899	9.90%
Smile	T-7	Jax	3	5	15	15	678	2.21%
		Phx	4	6	26	26	1,065	2.44%
		Ral	7	10	23	23	1,481	1.55%
	T-7 Total		14	21	64	64	3,224	1.99%

 

Don't Worry T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .936x (2.99m)

 - Crawdads - 1.117x (2.23m)

 - Bullet Train - 1.03x (3.46m)

 - Nope - .544x (3.48m)

 

 Looking a little better here than Santikos.  Could see it close to 3m depending on walkups. For now I'll go with 2.8m true previews.

 

Bros T-7 comp

 - Easter Sunday - .406x (203k)

 

Smile T-7 comps

 - Black Phone - .542x (1.41m)

 - Nope - .122x (779k)

 - Night House - 5.33x (1.39m)

 

Black Phone is the closest comp in terms of total sales I have at the moment.  Take the others with a grain of salt.

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bros	T-6	Jax	5	11	6	7	955	0.73%
		Phx	6	12	11	17	1,825	0.93%
		Ral	7	14	4	10	1,663	0.60%
	Total		18	37	21	34	4,443	0.77%
Smile	T-6	Jax	5	11	11	26	1,643	1.58%
		Phx	6	10	20	46	1,915	2.40%
		Ral	7	10	4	27	1,481	1.82%
	Total		18	31	35	99	5,039	1.96%
Smile (EA)	T-4	Jax	3	3	4	64	276	23.19%
		Phx	1	1	4	23	123	18.70%
		Ral	2	2	0	29	318	9.12%
	Total		6	6	8	116	717	16.18%

 

Bros T-6 comp

 - Easter Sunday - .739x (370k)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - .515x (309k)

 

Smile T-6 comps

 - Black Phone - .733x (1.91m)

 - Nope - .171x (1.09m)

 - Night House - 7.07x (1.84m)

 - Crawdads - .372x (744k)

 

Smile (EA) T-4 comps

 - Black Phone (EA) - 1.432x (573k)

 - Bullet Train (EA) - 1.04x (1.29m)

 - Crawdads (EA) - 3.74x (1.12m)

[charlie Jatinder]

3.1M DWD. 

66% Posttrak 🤮