The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

AT 9:30 PM Harkins FRI

 

Don't Worry Darling - 10563/71853 (276 showings) $116,464
 

Looks like 10.75-11K final. That would suggest $6.75M ish nationwide, which is where it in fact is.

 

Avatar - 5591/44048 (197 showings) $75,000

 

Probably 5.75K final. That would give around $3.6-3.8M OD. Given the release is just around 1800 while Harkins is getting 31 out of 33, Harkins would over-index its normal ratio.

Edited September 24, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Avatar Harkins

 

2D - 897/10,177 - 8.81% (42 shows)

3D - 2,663/20,764 - 12.82% (116 shows)

IMAX - 436/1,660 - 26.27% (4 shows)

Cine1 - 1,657/11,447 - 14.47% (35 shows)

 

Total - 5,653/44,048 - 12.83% (197 shows)

 

2D had 21% shows and accounted for 16% tix sales and 11% Gross.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Avatar (Fri)	PLF	34	207	678	5,340	12.70%	$16.85	$11,422.80
		Standard	12	27	60	1,604	3.74%	$11.09	$665.18
	Total		46	234	738	6,944	10.63%	$16.38	$12,087.98
	Don't Worry (Fri)	PLF	16	105	437	4,191	10.43%	$15.01	$6,559.85
		Standard	68	227	433	8,705	4.97%	$11.89	$5,146.69
	Total		84	332	870	12,896	6.75%	$13.46	$11,706.54
T-1	Avatar (Sat)	PLF	34	401	401	5,340	7.51%	$16.70	$6,697.09
		Standard	12	34	34	1,604	2.12%	$9.63	$327.45
	Total		46	435	435	6,944	6.26%	$16.15	$7,024.54
	Don't Worry (Sat)	PLF	16	175	175	4,175	4.19%	$14.40	$2,519.96
		Standard	68	174	174	8,645	2.01%	$11.20	$1,948.00
	Total		84	349	349	12,820	2.72%	$12.80	$4,467.96

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Avatar (Fri)	N	24	190	583	3,872	15.06%	$17.35	$10,116.50
		Y	22	44	155	3,072	5.05%	$12.72	$1,971.48
	Total		46	234	738	6,944	10.63%	$16.38	$12,087.98
	Don't Worry (Fri)	N	41	265	723	6,018	12.01%	$14.06	$10,168.80
		Y	43	67	147	6,878	2.14%	$10.46	$1,537.74
	Total		84	332	870	12,896	6.75%	$13.46	$11,706.54
T-1	Avatar (Sat)	N	24	237	237	3,872	6.12%	$18.65	$4,419.79
		Y	22	198	198	3,072	6.45%	$13.16	$2,604.75
	Total		46	435	435	6,944	6.26%	$16.15	$7,024.54
	Don't Worry (Sat)	N	41	199	199	6,014	3.31%	$14.57	$2,900.25
		Y	43	150	150	6,806	2.20%	$10.45	$1,567.71
	Total		84	349	349	12,820	2.72%	$12.80	$4,467.96

 

Don't Worry Fri comps

Crawdads - 1.093x (5.75m)

Elvis - .357x (3.3m)

Black Phone - .564x (4.08m)

Bullet Train - .96x (7.91m)

Nope - .47x (6.17m)

 

Still a pretty large range.  I would guess we see somewhere around 5.8m true Friday based on these.

 

Don't Worry Sat T-1 comps

Crawdads - .786x (4.21m)

Elvis - missed

Black Phone - missed

Bullet Train - .661x (6.4m)

Nope - .43x (5.99m)

 

Avatar Fri comps

JW3 - .05x (2.06m)

NWH - .034x (2.44m)

 

Not sure about comps for this.  Looking like it could hit maybe 2.6m with the heavy PLF skew.

 

Avatar Sat T-1 comps

Missed JW3 and NWH T-1.  

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Avatar (Sat)	PLF	34	156	550	5,340	10.30%	$16.39	$9,013.64
		Standard	12	35	76	1,604	4.74%	$9.53	$724.13
	Total		46	191	626	6,944	9.01%	$15.56	$9,737.77
	Don't Worry (Sat)	PLF	16	71	246	4,175	5.89%	$14.14	$3,478.65
		Standard	68	183	357	8,645	4.13%	$11.26	$4,020.97
	Total		84	254	603	12,820	4.70%	$12.44	$7,499.62

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Avatar (Sat)	N	24	99	333	3,872	8.60%	$18.22	$6,067.17
		Y	22	92	293	3,072	9.54%	$12.53	$3,670.60
	Total		46	191	626	6,944	9.01%	$15.56	$9,737.77
	Don't Worry (Sat)	N	41	137	336	6,014	5.59%	$14.17	$4,759.53
		Y	43	117	267	6,806	3.92%	$10.26	$2,740.09
	Total		84	254	603	12,820	4.70%	$12.44	$7,499.62

 

Don't Worry Sat comps

Crawdads - .741x (3.97m)

Elvis - .241x (2.39m)

Black Phone - .491x (3.69m)

Bullet Train - .598x (5.79m)

Nope - .327x (4.56m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 6.5m True Fri)

Crawdads - 4.48m

Elvis - 4.71m

Black Phone - 5.88m

Bullet Train - 4.76m

Nope - 4.8m

 

Looking like around 4.75m Saturday.  (Almost too confident in this...here are some other adj comps:  NWH 4.74, Batman 4.79, JW3 4.89, TG2 4.94, DBZ 4.88)

 

 

Avatar Sat comps

JW3 - .04x (1.9m)

NWH - .03x (2.18m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 3.7m Fri)

JW3 - 3.41m

NWH - 3.3m

TG2 - 3.44m

 

(Similar story with most comps in the 3.2-3.5m range)

[Cooper Legion]

8 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Adjusted comps (using 6.5m True Fri)

Crawdads - 4.48m

Elvis - 4.71m

Black Phone - 5.88m

Bullet Train - 4.76m

Nope - 4.8m

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bros	T-6	Jax	5	11	6	7	955	0.73%
		Phx	6	12	11	17	1,825	0.93%
		Ral	7	14	4	10	1,663	0.60%
	Total		18	37	21	34	4,443	0.77%
Smile	T-6	Jax	5	11	11	26	1,643	1.58%
		Phx	6	10	20	46	1,915	2.40%
		Ral	7	10	4	27	1,481	1.82%
	Total		18	31	35	99	5,039	1.96%
Smile (EA)	T-4	Jax	3	3	4	64	276	23.19%
		Phx	1	1	4	23	123	18.70%
		Ral	2	2	0	29	318	9.12%
	Total		6	6	8	116	717	16.18%

 

Bros T-6 comp

 - Easter Sunday - .739x (370k)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - .515x (309k)

 

Smile T-6 comps

 - Black Phone - .733x (1.91m)

 - Nope - .171x (1.09m)

 - Night House - 7.07x (1.84m)

 - Crawdads - .372x (744k)

 

Smile (EA) T-4 comps

 - Black Phone (EA) - 1.432x (573k)

 - Bullet Train (EA) - 1.04x (1.29m)

 - Crawdads (EA) - 3.74x (1.12m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bros	T-5	Jax	5	11	0	7	955	0.73%
		Phx	6	12	1	18	1,825	0.99%
		Ral	7	14	0	10	1,663	0.60%
	Total		18	37	1	35	4,443	0.79%
Smile	T-5	Jax	5	11	0	26	1,643	1.58%
		Phx	6	10	-6	40	1,915	2.09%
		Ral	7	10	-1	26	1,481	1.76%
	Total		18	31	-7	92	5,039	1.83%
Smile (EA)	T-3	Jax	3	3	2	66	276	23.91%
		Phx	1	1	6	29	123	23.58%
		Ral	2	2	5	34	318	10.69%
	Total		6	6	13	129	717	17.99%

 

Bros T-5 comp

 - Easter Sunday - .714x (357k)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - .556x (333k)

 

Smile T-5 comps

 - Black Phone - .586x (1.52m)

 - Nope - .146x (938k)

 - Night House - 6.13x (1.59m)

 - Crawdads - .291x (582k)

 - Resident Evil - 1.26x (1.18m)

 

Smile (EA) T-3 comps

 - Black Phone (EA) - missed

 - Bullet Train (EA) - .949x (1.19m)

 - Crawdads (EA) - 3.58x (1.08m)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

42 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Looking like around 4.75m Saturday.  (Almost too confident in this...here are some other adj comps:  NWH 4.74, Batman 4.79, JW3 4.89, TG2 4.94, DBZ 4.88)

I guess this is possible but man it would be hard to believe. We’d be looking at a sub $15M weekend off of $3.1M previews. 

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, Babylon XXR said:

I guess this is possible but man it would be hard to believe. We’d be looking at a sub $15M weekend off of $3.1M previews. 

3

6.4

4.75

3.15 // 17.3  

 

Fairly similar IM to Fault on our Stars which had a 30% Sat drop

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

19 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

3

6.4

4.75

3.15 // 17.3  

 

Fairly similar IM to Fault on our Stars which had a 30% Sat drop

 

 

Right right, TRUE Friday lol. I just woke up 

[Old Spice]

1 hour ago, Legion By Night said:

3

6.4

4.75

3.15 // 17.3  

 

Fairly similar IM to Fault on our Stars which had a 30% Sat drop

 

Yikes. Start Worrying, Darling.

[filmlover]

One thing I've noticed about the Black Adam showtimes is that it's looking locked in for IMAX/PLF screens for at least two weeks. Gonna assume it ends up with three weeks since nothing is set to open wide on November 4 (due to the Black Panther onslaught the following weekend).

[Old Spice]

30 minutes ago, filmlover said:

One thing I've noticed about the Black Adam showtimes is that it's looking locked in for IMAX/PLF screens for at least two weeks. Gonna assume it ends up with three weeks since nothing is set to open wide on November 4 (due to the Black Panther onslaught the following weekend).

There was a lot of handwringing when BA vacated its July 29 slot, and in retrospect, that would have been a great date for it given the desolation of late summer, but this one is very favorable too. It almost has what Batman had in March in terms of a PLF monopoly. (As I recall, The Bat had 4 weeks).

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, A Star is Delayed said:

There was a lot of handwringing when BA vacated its July 29 slot, and in retrospect, that would have been a great date for it given the desolation of late summer, but this one is very favorable too. It almost has what Batman had in March in terms of a PLF monopoly. (As I recall, The Bat had 4 weeks).

The Lost City took over PLF screens in its fourth weekend.

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

One thing I've noticed about the Black Adam showtimes is that it's looking locked in for IMAX/PLF screens for at least two weeks. Gonna assume it ends up with three weeks since nothing is set to open wide on November 4 (due to the Black Panther onslaught the following weekend).

I am gonna assume One Piece Red gets IMAX and PLFs on November 4 for 1 week since that worked out well for Dragon Ball in August.

[CJohn]

3 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

3

6.4

4.75

3.15 // 17.3  

 

Fairly similar IM to Fault on our Stars which had a 30% Sat drop

 

Lmao fucking hell. This movie is toasted. Under 5M Saturday sweet jesus.

[GOGODanca]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am gonna assume One Piece Red gets IMAX and PLFs on November 4 for 1 week since that worked out well for Dragon Ball in August.

I'd be surprised, OP has a very tiny market in USA/Can compared to DB

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

One thing I've noticed about the Black Adam showtimes is that it's looking locked in for IMAX/PLF screens for at least two weeks. Gonna assume it ends up with three weeks since nothing is set to open wide on November 4 (due to the Black Panther onslaught the following weekend).

 

33 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am gonna assume One Piece Red gets IMAX and PLFs on November 4 for 1 week since that worked out well for Dragon Ball in August.

 

[Tinalera]

Smile

Sept 29/30 (T-7 Thur, T-6 Fri)

SW/Toronto Ontario

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	18	33	14	6195	6209	0.0022
Fri	6	24	28	6422	6450	0.0043

 

Comps

Thurs

Bullet Train (missed)

x.0696 Nope (approx 69,000 cdn only), 1.3 million Can/US

Fri

Bullet Train(missed)

x.0125 Nope (approx 125 Thousand cdn only) 2.3 million Can/US

 

Not much to smile about so far in SW Ontario.

[CJohn]

3 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

I'd be surprised, OP has a very tiny market in USA/Can compared to DB

I am pretty sure they will try to push it to have a strong OW like Dragon Ball, Jujutsu and Demon Slayer. I am sure they will go for a wide release and I think they went for November 4 to get PLFs for a week.

Edited September 24, 2022 by CJohn

[WrathOfHan]

One Piece Red will open over 10M. This is a heavy Shanks movie, so fanboys are going to explode in the theater.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

One Piece Red will open over 10M. This is a heavy Shanks movie, so fanboys are going to explode in the theater.

 

The last OP film made under $1.3M DOM. Why would this one open to $10M+??