The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

51 minutes ago, XXXVIIR said:

 

Nothing tangible. If anything, the Rihanna song boosted it more (although again nothing to write home about). 

??? It certainly did get a reaction bump on Thursday and Friday. Faded a bit over the weekend which is normal. This next set of weekdays will be more telling.

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[ZackM]

 

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	790
Seats Added	126,371
Seats Sold	10,746
10/30/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	215	790	10,746	126,371	8.50%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	2	5
ATP
$13.58

Edited October 31, 2022 by ZackM

[Nikostar]

Deadline raised their prediction after WF reactions.

 

https://deadline.com/2022/10/hocus-pocus-2-disney-success-marketing-1235158328/

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	790
Seats Added	126,371
Seats Sold	10,746
10/30/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	215	790	10,746	126,371	8.50%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	2	5
ATP
$13.58

Strong start. Wonder how it will pace and whether it will get expansion.

[keysersoze123]

What a huge waste that a knives out sequel is mostly a streaming movie. a direct sequel had potential to be a big hit at least state side. I just dont get Netflix's movie strategy at all. its a waste of $ for sure in not looking to make it a theatrical phenomenon. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

What a huge waste that a knives out sequel is mostly a streaming movie. a direct sequel had potential to be a big hit at least state side. I just dont get Netflix's movie strategy at all. its a waste of $ for sure in not looking to make it a theatrical phenomenon. 

They've already said multiple times they have no interest in ever expanding beyond their streaming goals. I guess if they really want those Blockbuster 2.0 comparisons (ironically, they're putting out a sitcom soon set inside the last operating Blockbuster) they might as well go all in on the "we have no plans to change" angle. I don't think there's any bigger confirmation on the notion of "theaters > Netflix" idea than the fact the star of one of their shows just told them "get lost" after securing a major deal with a theatrical studio.

[Eric Prime]

22 hours ago, Ericstein's Monster said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	249	7380	44115	16.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 125

 

Comp

0.483x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-12 (24.13M)

1.448x of The Batman T-12 (31.28M)

0.746x of Doctor Strange 2 T-12 (26.85M)

1.274x of Thor 4 T-12 (36.96M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	249	7505	44115	17.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 125

 

Comp

0.457x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-11 (22.83M)

1.431x of The Batman T-11 (30.92M)

0.746x of Doctor Strange 2 T-11 (26.87M)

1.261x of Thor 4 T-11 (36.58M)

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	296	29738	37154	7416	19.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

166

T-12 Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.44		221	10836		0/351	31600/42436	25.53%		21117	35.12%		24.64m
L&T	106.22		168	6982		0/228	24618/31600	22.09%		16962	43.72%		30.80m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1782/11835  [15.06% sold]
Matinee:    355/4103  [8.65% | 4.79% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	296	29538	37154	7616	20.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

200

 

T-11 Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	69.08		189	11025		0/351	31411/42436	25.98%		21117	36.07%		24.87m
L&T	106.01		202	7184		0/228	24416/31600	22.73%		16962	44.90%		30.74m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1832/11835  [15.48% sold]
Matinee:    366/4103  [8.92% | 4.81% of all tickets sold]

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 10/28/2022 at 10:28 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-13	Jax	6	128	176*	2,063	18,561	11.11%
		Phx	6	125	137*	1,620	18,513	8.75%
		Ral	8	120	138*	2,575	14,882	17.30%
	Total		20	373	451*	6,258	51,956	12.04%
BP2 DF	T-13	Jax	2	3	5*	130	292	44.52%
	Total		2	3	5*	130	292	44.52%
One Piece	T-6	Jax	5	24	4	158	5,074	3.11%
		Phx	5	14	2	171	2,702	6.33%
		Ral	7	19	10	177	2,929	6.04%
	Total		17	57	16	506	10,705	4.73%

*BP new sales since Wednesday*

 

One Piece T-6 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .532x (2.287m)

 

Black Panther T-13 comps

 - Black Widow - 3.07x (40.53m)

 - Thor 4 - missed

 - DS2 (T-27) - .62x (22.38m)

 - NWH - .361x (18.03m)

 - Batman - missed

 

On 10/29/2022 at 10:44 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
One Piece	T-5	Jax	5	24	23	181	5,074	3.57%
		Phx	5	14	6	177	2,702	6.55%
		Ral	7	19	13	190	2,929	6.49%
	Total		17	57	42	548	10,705	5.12%

 

One Piece T-5 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .558x (2.4m)

 - MHA - .614x (1.77m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-10	Jax	6	128	193	2,256	18,561	12.15%
		Phx	6	125	112	1,732	18,513	9.36%
		Ral	8	123	289	2,859	14,945	19.13%
	Total		20	376	594	6,847	52,019	13.16%
BP2 DF	T-10	Jax	2	3	7	137	292	46.92%
	Total		2	3	7	137	292	46.92%
Glass Onion	T-23	Jax	4	16	55	55	1,847	2.98%
		Phx	2	8	54	54	736	7.34%
		Ral	2	11	95	95	896	10.60%
	Total		8	35	204	204	3,479	5.86%
One Piece	T-3	Jax	5	24	15	196	5,074	3.86%
		Phx	5	14	20	197	2,702	7.29%
		Ral	7	19	25	215	2,929	7.34%
	Total		17	57	60	608	10,705	5.68%

*New sales: One Piece (new since Sat), BP (new since Fri)*

 

One Piece T-3 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .54x (2.32m)

 - JJK - .503x (1.45m)

 - MHA - .563x (1.62m)

 

Black Panther T-10 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.94x (38.76m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.11x (32.21m)

 - DS2 - .64x (23.05m)

 - NWH - .361x (18.07m)

 - Batman - missed

 

I don't really have any good Glass Onion comps this far out, especially with it being OD sales.  Here's what I have for T-23 though:

 - Black Widow - .188x (2.48m)

 - Downton Abbey - 1.82x (1.91m)

 - Dragon Ball - .58x (2.49m)

 - Eternals - .267x (2.54m)

 - JW3 - .133x (2.36m)

 - Nope - .936x (5.99m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.594x (7.94m)

 - Thor 4 - .06x (1.75m)

 

Not sure how wide this is going, but I'd say that's a pretty great start!  I'm also seeing about 65 midnight shows on Tuesday; only one in my regions though and it hadn't sold any tickets yet.

[ZackM]

On 10/29/2022 at 11:45 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	4	22	15	5	4
Seats Added	1,060	1,872	1,123	384	903
Seats Sold	4,188	5,612	5,892	3,296	3,362
10/29/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,380	194,907	1,151,844	16.92%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	19	120	328	606
ATP
$17.05
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
10/29/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	96	7,043	22,291	31.60%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	8	15	26
ATP
$17.59

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

From last night:

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	4	22	15	5
Seats Added	0	1,060	1,872	1,123	384
Seats Sold	4,381	4,188	5,612	5,892	3,296
10/30/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,380	199,288	1,151,844	17.30%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	22	127	337	624
ATP
$17.02
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
10/30/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	96	7,159	22,291	32.12%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	8	15	26
ATP
$17.59

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 10/28/2022 at 2:22 PM, Menor Reborn said:

From last night:

 

Wakanda Forever Marcus Theaters (T-14)

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 885

Seats Sold: 17943/126192 (+1253)

0.871x Thor 4 (25.26 million)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 1489

Seats Sold: 16397/211210 (+1465)

1.334x Thor 4 (54.02 million)

I took numbers the last couple of days but was busy and forgot to post, so that's why the +bar doesn't match the difference from my last post. Also the numbers in the quoted post are a 3-day pace while this is a 1-day pace. 

 

Wakanda Forever Marcus Theaters (T-11)

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 887

Seats Sold: 19414/126706 (+549)

0.853x Thor 4 (24.74 million)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 1490 (+5)

Seats Sold: 18912/211354 (+1060)

1.335x Thor 4 (54.07 million)

 

Veteran's day really fucking with the trends here. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[keysersoze123]

Wakanda Forever MTC2 Previews - 95742/602776 1396165.08 4363 shows

 

Equivalent Thor data. I think MTC2 is slightly better than MTC1 when it comes to relative trend. 

 

On 6/27/2022 at 9:30 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Thor love and thunder MTC2 Thursday - 104301/524649 1479741.61 3280 shows. 

 

It grew by 14.3K+ over past 5 days. Nothing crazy and its pacing around 55% of DS2 here. Definitely weaker than MTC1 where its slightly under 2/3rd of DS2. 

 

[jedijake]

Due to Veterans Day, is BPWF's previews expected to take up a lower-than-usual percentage of its opening day? (THL&T was 41.7%, DSMoM was 39.7%, NWH 41%, and TBM 38.2%).

 

And if so, how much of a difference might it be? (in other words, could the Thursday number be slightly muted and Friday make up for it?)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Veterans Day isn’t a relevant holiday to the general public. Most companies aren’t off work and it’s not a celebratory affair.

[GOGODanca]

On 10/12/2022 at 1:19 PM, GOGODanca said:

T-29 Black Panther Wakanda Forever

 

3157 tickets sold across 189 showtimes at 10 local AMC's

 

This about 4.2x as many tickets sold as Black Adam (T-8) has sold

T-10 Black Panther Wakanda Forever:

 

3967 tickets sold across 190 showtimes at 10 local AMC's

 

6.19x Black Adam (T-11) = 47.3m

[Menor the Destroyer]

27 minutes ago, XXXVIIR said:

Veterans Day isn’t a relevant holiday to the general public. Most companies aren’t off work and it’s not a celebratory affair.

It's relevant to the box office (you can see an effect in past years). And WF sales are pretty Friday heavy so it's likely having an effect here as well.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Armageddon Time T-4: 14.13% Awareness, 5.04 Interest

Creed III T-123: 42.17%, 6.14

Shazam! Fury of the Gods T-137: 38.88%, 5.57

The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-158: 45.12%, 6.19

Fast X T-200: 40.8%, 6.18

 

One Piece Film: Red T-4: 20.22% Awareness, 4.73 Interest

*Note that One Piece Film: Red's Final numbers are subject to change*

Final General Awareness: 5% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 24% chance of double-digit opening

 

Violent Night T-32: 27.75% Awareness, 5.62 Interest

T-30 General Awareness: 35% chance of double-digits, 12% chance of 20M

General Interest: 84% chance of double-digits, 80% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 75% chance of 5M, 40% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 67% chance of 5M, 33% chance of 10M

 

The Whale T-39: 21.09% Awareness, 5.05 Interest

T-30 General Awareness: 35% chance of double-digits

General Interest: 71% chance of double-digits

Original - Low Awareness: 75% chance of 5M, 37.5% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 67% chance of 5M, 33% chance of 10M

 

M3gan T-67: 30.51% Awareness, 5.81 Interest

T-60 General Awareness: 96% chance of double-digits, 85% chance of 20M, 77% chance of 30M

General Interest: 93% chance of double-digits, 86% chance of 20M, 79% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 40M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/28/2022 at 5:32 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

860

3301

26.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

561

2758

20.34%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4000	131	32294	12.39%	15	225

 

AMCs sold	2354
Cinemarks sold	771
Regals sold	390
Harkins sold	485

 

0.841x Thor L&T T-13 (24.37M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

922

4177

22.07%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

603

2758

21.86%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4427	427	33549	13.20%	15	246

 

AMCs sold	2543
Cinemarks sold	857
Regals sold	447
Harkins sold	580

 

0.838x Thor L&T T-10 (24.31M)

0.558x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (20.09M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/28/2022 at 5:35 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex

 

T-13 Thursday(99 showings): 2643(+64)/29419

0.585x Thor L&T T-13 (16.98M)

 

T-14 Friday(160 showings): 1680(+128)/45165

0.670x Thor L&T T-14 (27.17M)

 

T-15 Saturday(163 showings): 1095(+74)/47913

0.900x Thor L&T T-15 (37.89M)

 

T-16 Sunday(140 showings): 225(+13)/42321

0.478x Thor L&T T-16 (15.53M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex [+3 days of sales]

 

T-10 Thursday(109 showings): 2869(+226)/31432

0.547x Thor L&T T-10 (15.86M)

0.328x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (11.79M)

2.19x Eternals T-10 (20.76M)

 

T-11 Friday(169 showings): 1939(+259)/48520

0.673x Thor L&T T-11 (27.31M)

0.387x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (21.19M)

1.92x Eternals T-11 (40.93M)

 

T-12 Saturday(176 showings): 1272(+177)/50950

0.833x Thor L&T T-12 (35.08M)

0.454x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (26.29M)

2.56x Eternals T-12 (61.73M)

 

T-13 Sunday(139 showings): 280(+55)/41926

0.477x Thor L&T T-13 (15.50M)

0.402x Doctor Strange MoM T-13 (15.62M)

2.37x Eternals T-13 (38.75M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/28/2022 at 5:37 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-13 Thursday(219 showings): 12852(+371)/30510 ATP: $16.14

1.09x Thor L&T T-13 (31.63M)

 

T-14 Friday(327 showings): 14287(+580)/46457 ATP: $15.70

1.50x Thor L&T T-14 (60.80M)

 

T-15 Saturday(330 showings): 12284(+501)/47364 ATP: $15.33

1.39x Thor L&T T-15 (58.65M)

 

T-16 Sunday(319 showings): 6928(+363)/45087 ATP: $15.37

1.46x Thor L&T T-16 (47.39M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

 

T-10 Thursday(234 showings): 13647(+795)/32131 ATP: $16.10

1.08x Thor L&T T-10 (31.19M)

0.794x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (28.58M)

 

T-11 Friday(344 showings): 15814(+1527)/48562 ATP: $15.64

1.49x Thor L&T T-11 (60.34M)

1.03x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (56.33M)

 

T-12 Saturday(344 showings): 13894(+1610)/49293 ATP: $15.26

1.38x Thor L&T T-12 (58.03M)

0.861x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (49.77M)

 

T-13 Sunday(329 showings): 7835(+907)/46355 ATP: $15.30

1.41x Thor L&T T-13 (45.93M)

0.974x Doctor Strange MoM T-13 (37.89M)