The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

https://deadline.com/2022/11/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-projection-1235180305/

 

Quote

The long awaited James Cameron sequel to the highest grossing movie of all-time hit tracking this morning with a projected opening of at least $150M. Tracking has it higher near $175M, but rivals are bullish at $200M.

 

Here’s the thing — the pic is being comped against holiday fanboy titles, and the numbers that are being seen need to be taken with a grain of salt. Avatar isn’t a front-loaded opening weekend fanboy movie, it’s one that will play and play. A $150M opening is 95% ahead of the original 2009 title’s $77M.

 

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Eric Clade said:

https://deadline.com/2022/11/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-projection-1235180305/

 

 

heh heh heh

[Gavin Feng]

10 minutes ago, Eric Clade said:

https://deadline.com/2022/11/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-projection-1235180305/

 

 

 

They're sure it's opening instead of lifetime?

[Lothar]

5 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

They're sure it's opening instead of lifetime?

When is the tickets going online in China? 

[Gavin Feng]

3 minutes ago, Lothar said:

When is the tickets going online in China? 

 

I guess one week before opening. 10 days or two weeks at best.

[GOGODanca]

T-22 (2 day of presales) AMC Check for Avatar 2:

 

1028 tickets sold

 

846 PLF  (35 showtimes)

61 3D.    (67 showtimes)

121 2D.   (36 showtimes)

 

2.22x Black Adam (4 days of presales/T-18) =$16.9m

 

0.33x Black Panther 2 (9 days of presales/T-29) = $9m

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by GOGODanca

[wboxoffice]

Apparently the tickets for “I wanna dance with somebody” are starting to go on sale…

[IronJimbo]

2 hours ago, Eric Clade said:

https://deadline.com/2022/11/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-projection-1235180305/

 

Who do we think they mean by bullish rivals, rivals to Deadline?

 

[GOGODanca]

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Who do we think they mean by bullish rivals, rivals to Deadline?

 

other studios

[ThomasNicole]

Excellent tracking. 

 

Based on presales so far i think 150M is realistic indeed, even 175M considering the IM should be great because of the lenghty runtime (something like 20-21M previews and 8-8.5x)

[M37]

21 hours ago, M37 said:

I am like 80% sure this was a Disney mandate (one 2D screen, unless location doesn’t have 3D capability) for at least the initial pre-sales push. I expect the 2D screens & shows to grow closer to release 

 

… and if they don’t (or not by much), well then that certainly is a choice, and we’ll see how it play outs 

Yeah, make that 99.9% - Disney is dictating all formats/screens, purposely limiting 2D, and at this time it not assured that any more 2D shows will be added. What is on sale now might be about all that we get

 

They're really going all out to try to funnel (force) people in 3D, huh? Fwiw, Disney tried this mandatory high 3D share once before with (I believe) Thor Dark World, and it failed spectacularly, with 2D shows selling out hours in advance while earlier 3D was nearly empty, to the point where theaters were flipping shows from 3D to 2D over the opening weekend! Don't expect the same outcome here, but - in an already softer market - they could be running the risk of just pricing (annoying) people out of going altogether

 

 

Note: Iger's return may change the plan here

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yeah, make that 99.9% - Disney is dictating all formats/screens, purposely limiting 2D, and at this time it not assured that any more 2D shows will be added. What is on sale now might be about all that we get

 

They're really going all out to try to funnel (force) people in 3D, huh? Fwiw, Disney tried this mandatory high 3D share once before with (I believe) Thor Dark World, and it failed spectacularly, with 2D shows selling out hours in advance while earlier 3D was nearly empty, to the point where theaters were flipping shows from 3D to 2D over the opening weekend! Don't expect the same outcome here, but - in an already softer market - they could be running the risk of just pricing (annoying) people out of going altogether

 

 

Note: Iger's return may change the plan here

It's what they did with the remaster this isn't a suprise!

[M37]

15 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

It's what they did with the remaster this isn't a suprise!

Not a surprise they started this way, but (at least for now) don’t intend to change. Special edition limited re-release, effectively a boutique take-it-or-leave-it offering, is not the same as major wide release, where the goal is (normally) to adjust supply as business warrants to meet demand.
 

Instead, the current plan is to fix supply and try to bend demand to meet it, to the point where current mandate is that if 2D shows were to sell out, more cannot be added. 

 

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yeah, make that 99.9% - Disney is dictating all formats/screens, purposely limiting 2D, and at this time it not assured that any more 2D shows will be added. What is on sale now might be about all that we get

 

They're really going all out to try to funnel (force) people in 3D, huh? Fwiw, Disney tried this mandatory high 3D share once before with (I believe) Thor Dark World, and it failed spectacularly, with 2D shows selling out hours in advance while earlier 3D was nearly empty, to the point where theaters were flipping shows from 3D to 2D over the opening weekend! Don't expect the same outcome here, but - in an already softer market - they could be running the risk of just pricing (annoying) people out of going altogether

 

 

Note: Iger's return may change the plan here

 

I just want to point out something from my (do I have to keep saying early?) tracking:

 

3D PLF Seats:             954/7439 [12.82% sold]

3D Standard seats:      195/8195 [2.38% sold]

----

2D Seats All Formats:  540/5704 [9.47% sold]

 

One of these is not like the other.  IF when the inevitable screen expansion occurs and next-to-none of them will be 2D... I think that will be a mistake.

 

Then again, I would point out that IIRC early rumors (and I don't recall from who) were that there weren't gonna be any 2D early pre-sales for A2 when tickets first went on sale and that either didn't happen or someone changed their minds (or got cold feet).

 

Still... Appropriate gif choice there I'd say.

[Tinalera]

Right now both Calgary and Toronto are showing much more sales in 3D/AVX/HFR/insert cool sounding bunch of letters here than the 2D shows, so far by a decent margin. Im sure when I check Montreal tomorrow it will be same. Be interesting to see how that trend continues forward.

[Deep Wang]

42 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I just want to point out something from my (do I have to keep saying early?) tracking:

 

3D PLF Seats:             954/7439 [12.82% sold]

3D Standard seats:      195/8195 [2.38% sold]

----

2D Seats All Formats:  540/5704 [9.47% sold]

 

One of these is not like the other.  IF when the inevitable screen expansion occurs and next-to-none of them will be 2D... I think that will be a mistake.

 

Then again, I would point out that IIRC early rumors (and I don't recall from who) were that there weren't gonna be any 2D early pre-sales for A2 when tickets first went on sale and that either didn't happen or someone changed their minds (or got cold feet).

 

Still... Appropriate gif choice there I'd say.

 

With just this small sampling so far, I can without a doubt say that Disney would be MAD to force non-PLF 3D on moviegoers.   

Edited November 23, 2022 by Deep Wang
wtf is up with that white background??

[Porthos]

35 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

With just this small sampling so far, I can without a doubt say that Disney would be MAD to force non-PLF 3D on moviegoers.   

 

Would it surprise you in the slightest that standard 3D showings are also in the largest non-PLF auditoriums*?

* With a couple of exceptions at some theaters, I should note.  But the pattern/preference is pretty clear at the moment.

 

(that white background happens sometimes due to a post picking up the white background in a quote box which has the identical white background and accidentally putting in the wrong area — can also happen when quoting and pasting articles with backgrounds.  Copying all of the affected text and then putting it back in as "Paste as Plain Text"/"Paste and Match Style" should get rid of it)

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Porthos

[el sid]

Strange World, counted today at 10am EST for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 30 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 34 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 8 (10 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 30 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 45 (9 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 151.

Comps (all three counted on Wednesday for Thursday): Dolittle (925k from previews) had 245 sold tickets,
The Legend of Hank (550k) had 122

and Lyle (575k) had 106.

Super Pets (2.2M) had one day earlier, on Tuesday, 271 sold tickets.
 

Strange World, counted today at 10am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 31 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 26 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 6 (16 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 39 (11 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 44 (9 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 152.

Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): Dolittle (21.8M OW) had 240 sold tickets,

Sonic 2 (72.1M) had 791 sold tickets,

The Legend of Hank (6.3M) had 91,

JC (35M) had 655,

Clifford (16.6M) had 122,

The Boss Baby 2 (16M) had 140,

Lyle (11.4M) had 97

and Lightyear (50.6M) had 1.235 sold tickets.
Super Pets (23M) had again one day earlier 174 sold tickets.

IMO the trailers are quite cute and with the long weekend I guess around 20M (3-day) are possible.

 

[Deep Wang]

37 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Would it surprise you in the slightest that standard 3D showings are also in the largest non-PLF auditoriums*?

* With a couple of exceptions at some theaters, I should note.  But the pattern/preference is pretty clear at the moment.

 

(that white background happens sometimes due to a post picking up the white background in a quote box which has the identical white background and accidentally putting in the wrong area — can also happen when quoting and pasting articles with backgrounds.  Copying all of the affected text and then putting it back in as "Paste as Plain Text"/"Paste and Match Style" should get rid of it)

 

 

A. that does not surprise me, but if the actual sales keep trending more towards 2D, will they change their plans??

 

B.  I know, but I didn't copy/paste anything so that's why I was confused lol

[el sid]

Glass Onion, counted today at 10am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 154 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 191 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 94 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): no showtimes
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 215 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 429 (8 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.083.

Comps: Death on the Nile had also on Wednesday for Wednesday 289 in 4 theaters. In the same 4 theaters Glass Onion has 989 sold tickets today.
Bullet Train had on Thursday for Thursday 1.508 sold tickets.

 

Glass Onion, counted today at 10am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 136 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 74 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 38 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): no showtimes
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 179 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 255 (8 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 680.

Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): Death on the Nile had 357 sold tickets,

Amsterdam had 197

and BT had 1.000 sold tickets.

If the walk-ups for this movie are not totally terrible I don't see it under 10M (3-day). I know I said the same thing last week for The Menu but here we already have a popular predecessor and the presales look really good.

Tomorrow more films.

PS: The presales for Violent Night aren't bad so far. It had today 88 sold tickets for next Thursday and 50 sold tickets for next Friday.
Comps: The Invitation had on Monday of its release week (= 5 days left for VN) 96 sold tickets for Thursday and 87 sold tickets for Friday.
And Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard had on Wednesday of its release week (= 7 days left for VN) 132 sold tickets.

Edited November 23, 2022 by el sid