The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[wboxoffice]

Is there a way to know in addition to production budget, how much budget was also spent for each movie in P&A?  (publicity & advertisement).  Because that's an important data when judging whether a movie is a hit/profitable or not...  Thanks

[eridani]

No way to know precisely. Studios keep all expenses secret. Its only third party estimates that appear in the media. Like that recent budget estimate of 460 million. Sometimes such estimates are based on actual leaks.

 

Advertising budget is usually even harder to estimate. 

 

Then there are overhead studio costs. (We cant know if those are part of the budget estimate)

 

And finally there are creative shares and residuals. Those are percentages of earnings but again, exact percentages are kept secret.

[wboxoffice]

Any projections for Puss in boots 2, I Wanna Dance with Somebody and Babylon, outside of boxofficepro?

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, wboxoffice said:

Any projections for Puss in boots 2, I Wanna Dance with Somebody and Babylon, outside of boxofficepro?

 

Just my guesses.

 

25/150, 13/65, 8/30

[Tinalera]

As far as Budgets ect, Cameron being rather vocal in the media saying that Avatar 2 needs to make 2 billion "just to break even", now what hes including in that (wondering if his culmative costs since he started hes counting all that). So I dont know how accurate that is. 

 

I DO wonder if part of that cost was a possible investment way back when he started with talking about glasses free 3D, wonder if he lost a bundle (pure speculation on my part)in investing in that-and pretty much cut bait and went to 3D glasses tech.

 

EDIT: Just saw the Box Office Pro about 134 million domestic weekend take. I admit If it ends up being that Ill say on one hand I am surprised it is that "low" (tons of films would kill for a 130 opening domestic), but also doesn't as my Canadian numbers were showing lesser pre sales than I thought.

 

Now the big question is how the legs do on this. Being Xmas Holidays is should do well leg wise.

 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Tinalera

[ThatWaluigiDude]

1 minute ago, Tinalera said:

As far as Budgets ect, Cameron being rather vocal in the media saying that Avatar 2 needs to make 2 billion "just to break even", now what hes including in that (wondering if his culmative costs since he started hes counting all that). So I dont know how accurate that is. 

 

I DO wonder if part of that cost was a possible investment way back when he started with talking about glasses free 3D, wonder if he lost a bundle (pure speculation on my part)in investing in that-and pretty much cut bait and went to 3D glasses tech.

I actually ask myself, if that number is true of course, if part of that budget wasn't used on laying down the technology and creating assets so they could use on the sequels. I mean, we know they are long in active production and it is not unheard of studios using some big budget movies to upgrade a technology to be used in future projects.

[GOGODanca]

4 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

As far as Budgets ect, Cameron being rather vocal in the media saying that Avatar 2 needs to make 2 billion "just to break even", now what hes including in that (wondering if his culmative costs since he started hes counting all that). So I dont know how accurate that is. 

 

I DO wonder if part of that cost was a possible investment way back when he started with talking about glasses free 3D, wonder if he lost a bundle (pure speculation on my part)in investing in that-and pretty much cut bait and went to 3D glasses tech.

 

EDIT: Just saw the Box Office Pro about 134 million domestic weekend take. I admit If it ends up being that Ill say on one hand I am surprised it is that "low" (tons of films would kill for a 130 opening domestic), but also doesn't as my Canadian numbers were showing lesser pre sales than I thought.

 

Now the big question is how the legs do on this. Being Xmas Holidays is should do well leg wise.

 

 

Cameron never said $2b, he told a story about telling the studio that it would need to be 3rd/4th highest grossing (if it was in 2010 when the sequels were greenlit then the number would be ~1.1b range as lotr3/pirates 3 were in those positions) but then in a later interview he said 7th/8th, also general rule of thumb is 2.5x so even at 460m budget, the movie would need to make around 1.15b to break even

[Tinalera]

4 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Cameron never said $2b, he told a story about telling the studio that it would need to be 3rd/4th highest grossing (if it was in 2010 when the sequels were greenlit then the number would be ~1.1b range as lotr3/pirates 3 were in those positions) but then in a later interview he said 7th/8th, also general rule of thumb is 2.5x so even at 460m budget, the movie would need to make around 1.15b to break even

See in a weird way (and shame on me for not actually reading full out articles-thats on me lol) that seems more reasonable thats still a huge budget, but makes more sense. 2 Billion seemed weirdly huge, but its what goes viral. So I own that  

 

Still 500 mil budget on its own is pretty hefty before Marketing ect. 

 

 

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, Tinalera said:

See in a weird way (and shame on me for not actually reading full out articles-thats on me lol) that seems more reasonable thats still a huge budget, but makes more sense. 2 Billion seemed weirdly huge, but its what goes viral. So I own that  

 

Still 500 mil budget on its own is pretty hefty before Marketing ect. 

 

 

nah its not your fault, media outlets are still running with the first interview and just ignore the next one

[filmlover]

The Whale is expanding to about 500 theaters on Wednesday.

 

“The Whale’ With Brendan Fraser Holding Strong At Specialty Box Office – Deadline

[Eric Furiosa]

13 hours ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	113	576	16775	3.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

 

Comp

4.000x of Encanto T-4 (6M)

0.257x of Sing 2 T-4 (2.5M)

0.496x of Sonic 2 T-4 (3.1M)

1.134x of Lightyear T-4 (5.9M)

1.185x of Minions 2 T-4 (12.74M)

5.284x of Super Pets T-4 (11.62M)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	113	586	16775	3.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp

3.467x of Encanto T-3 (5.2M)

0.244x of Sing 2 T-3 (2.37M)

0.420x of Sonic 2 T-3 (2.62M)

0.901x of Lightyear T-3 (4.69M)

0.881x of Minions 2 T-3 (9.47M)

4.439x of Super Pets T-3 (9.77M)

 

Yeah I have no clue why this has picked up zero momentum. And yeah I also know that the OD for a Christmas movie isn't the end all be all, but it's still weird.

[Eric Furiosa]

13 hours ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	25	5433	0.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp

0.521x of The Conjuring 3 T-19 (5.1M)

0.105x of Scream T-19 (368K)

0.098x of Nope T-19 (627K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	35	5433	0.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp

0.700x of The Conjuring 3 T-18 (6.86M)

0.144x of Scream T-18 (504K)

0.135x of Nope T-18 (861K)

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	113	586	16775	3.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp

3.467x of Encanto T-3 (5.2M)

0.244x of Sing 2 T-3 (2.37M)

0.420x of Sonic 2 T-3 (2.62M)

0.901x of Lightyear T-3 (4.69M)

0.881x of Minions 2 T-3 (9.47M)

4.439x of Super Pets T-3 (9.77M)

 

Yeah I have no clue why this has picked up zero momentum. And yeah I also know that the OD for a Christmas movie isn't the end all be all, but it's still weird.

No idea why you still insist on using comps including EA a month earlier. It's not normal EA a day/two before THU which can impact THU numbers. Without EA comps were coming a lot more realistic and I believe trend will make a lot more sense.

[Eric Furiosa]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

No idea why you still insist on using comps including EA a month earlier. It's not normal EA a day/two before THU which can impact THU numbers. Without EA comps were coming a lot more realistic and I believe trend will make a lot more sense.

Because it's going to be rolled into the OD number anyways. Why ignore it when the numbers it will make will be included into the first day?

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

Because it's going to be rolled into the OD number anyways

Going by Sing 2, it won't be 
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl302024193/?ref_=bo_tt_gr_1
 

 

6 minutes ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

Why ignore it when the numbers it will make will be included into the first day?

Because even if it was, it is not giving comps result as it should. It gives false impression that sales are close to Minions 2, which it isn't.

[Eric Furiosa]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Going by Sing 2, it won't be 
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl302024193/?ref_=bo_tt_gr_1
 

 

Because even if it was, it is not giving comps result as it should. It gives false impression that sales are close to Minions 2, which it isn't.

Well I'm using the 9.745M number in my comp from Puss in Boots vs. Sing, so technically it's still part of the full OD the way I see it. And I think people understand the comp for Minions is going to go down and I doubt anybody here is losing sleep at night because of unrealistic comps, so I see very little reason to do what I view as unnecessary, especially when we're only a couple days away from release. You're just going to have to ignore my posts then. Sorry 🤷‍♂️

[filmlover]

The buzz surrounding Puss in Boots definitely has felt quiet. There's been a lot more chatter surrounding The Super Mario Bros Movie even though that's almost four months away. Just goes to show how far DreamWorks has fallen from their heyday.

[Verrows]

I think with Puss in Boots it's an another example of marketing failing the movie big time.

 

I realize in the social media age studios are moving to more short term marketing but I don't understand why. Longer term marketing just makes a movie feel like a bigger deal. Idk, maybe it's just me. Short term marketing makes the movie feel rather unimportant. Like it's a formality. I'm not saying Puss in Boots 2 is some huge deal but it could have been marketed as being a bigger deal. If it feels like a movie is not important to the studio, why would people think it's going to be anything special?

 

Doesn't anyone else feel this vibe that studios don't even care about their own movies? Aside from Paramount I guess. That's what it feels like to me. I feel like I have to generate my own hype.

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Verrows

[ThatWaluigiDude]

In any case, it is good to reminder that the first Puss in Boots opened to $34M. Like, is good and all, but this is still almost 1/4 from the opening of Shrek the Third and lower even from the first shrek movie. The sequel was never really fated to do big opening numbers.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	T-4	Jax	5	13	3	24	1,430	1.68%
		Phx	7	20	9	62	2,037	3.04%
		Ral	8	18	12	57	1,666	3.42%
	Total		20	51	24	143	5,133	2.79%
I Wanna Dance	T-4	Jax	5	15	2	59	1,454	4.06%
		Phx	7	22	2	42	2,503	1.68%
		Ral	9	25	0	74	2,579	2.87%
	Total		20	62	4	175	6,536	2.68%
M3GAN	T-18	Jax	5	20	0	7	1,758	0.40%
		Phx	5	13	0	9	2,039	0.44%
		Ral	7	14	0	12	1,817	0.66%
	Total		17	47	0	28	5,614	0.50%
Puss in Boots	T-3	Jax	6	60	15	88	6,668	1.32%
		Phx	6	54	1	39	7,034	0.55%
		Ral	7	57	16	138	6,745	2.05%
	Total		19	171	32	265	20,447	1.30%

 

Puss in Boots T-3 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .299x (1.49m)

 - Minions 2 - .329x (3.5m)

 - Lyle Lyle - 5.196x (2.99m)

 - Super Pets - 1.523x (3.35m)

 - Paw Patrol - .629x (2.85m)

 - Strange World - 4.65x (3.72m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-4 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - Easter Sunday - 3.07x (1.54m)

 - Respect - 3.3x (2.15m)

 

Babylon T-4 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - Bullet Train - .388x (1.3m)

 - Amsterdam - missed

 

M3GAN T-18 comps

 - Nope - .104x (666k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	T-3	Jax	5	13	3	27	1,430	1.89%
		Phx	7	20	2	64	2,037	3.14%
		Ral	8	18	4	61	1,666	3.66%
	Total		20	51	9	152	5,133	2.96%
I Wanna Dance	T-3	Jax	5	15	3	62	1,454	4.26%
		Phx	7	22	9	51	2,503	2.04%
		Ral	9	25	13	87	2,579	3.37%
	Total		20	62	25	200	6,536	3.06%
M3GAN	T-17	Jax	5	20	0	7	1,758	0.40%
		Phx	5	13	0	9	2,039	0.44%
		Ral	7	14	1	13	1,817	0.72%
	Total		17	47	1	29	5,614	0.52%
Puss in Boots	T-2	Jax	6	60	45	133	6,668	1.99%
		Phx	6	54	24	63	7,034	0.90%
		Ral	7	56	46	184	6,688	2.75%
	Total		19	170	115	380	20,390	1.86%

 

Puss in Boots T-2 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .354x (1.77m)

 - Minions 2 - .327x (3.52m)

 - Lyle Lyle - 6.91x (3.97m)

 - Super Pets - 1.792x (3.94m)

 - Paw Patrol - .646x (2.92m)

 - Strange World - 6.33x (5.07m)
 - Sing 2 - .161x (1.307m)

 - Encanto - 1.57x (2.36m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-3 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - Easter Sunday - 3.125x (1.56m)

 - Respect - 3.125x (2.03m)

 - House of Gucci - .909x (1.18m)

 - King Richard - 1.37x (2.66m)

 

Babylon T-3 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - Bullet Train - .35x (1.17m)

 - Amsterdam - 1.448x (796k)

 - Death on the Nile - .921x (1.013m)

 - Lost City - .557x (1.39m)

 

M3GAN T-17 comps

 - Nope - .104x (665k)

 - Black Phone - .439x (1.14m)