The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[motionpic05]

I think we could see a decent overperformance from both 80 for Brady and Knock at the Cabin next weekend.

I could see Book Club numbers for Brady and Visit numbers for Knock at the Cabin.

 

Both seem to have good early buzz

[el sid]

Knock at the Cabin, counted yesterday for Thursday, Feb 2:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 34 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 27 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 5 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes yet
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 6 (3 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 66 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 82 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 220.

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week which means KatC has 7 days left):

The Invitation (775k) had 97 sold tickets,

Barbarian (850k) had 156 sold tickets,

Prey for the Devil (660k) had 115 sold tickets,

The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 104 sold tickets

and Smile (2M) had 213 sold tickets.

Knock at the Cabin, counted yesterday for Friday, Feb 3:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 50 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 27 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes yet
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 66 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 45 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 188.

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week = 7 days left for KatC): The Invitation (6.8M) had 87 sold tickets,

Barbarian (10.5M) had 70 sold tickets,

Devil (7.2M) had 149 sold tickets,

Old (16.9M) had 150 sold tickets

and Smile (22.6M) had 229 sold tickets.

 

I can only repeat myself, that looks promising.

a

[Mr Terrific]

Please remind me what a realistic preview night to OW total might be for AMTWQ. 
Thanks. 

[GOGODanca]

Just now, Mr Terrific said:

Please remind me what a realistic preview night to OW total might be for AMTWQ. 
Thanks. 

18-25m previews -  110-130m OW for 3 day

 

Assuming movie isn't total ass*

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

18-25m previews -  110-130m OW for 3 day

 

Assuming movie isn't total ass*

Would almost certainly land over 130 with 25 previews

[Cooper Legion]

25 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

Please remind me what a realistic preview night to OW total might be for AMTWQ. 
Thanks. 

~20-26 x 6

[ZackM]

On 1/22/2023 at 6:27 PM, ZackM said:

 

From last night:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	10	3	11	7	4,565
Seats Added	1,317	396	1,950	1,228	859,653
Seats Sold	3,148	4,189	5,354	11,444	88,502
1/21/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	434	4,596	112,637	864,544	13.03%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	21	102	228
ATP
$18.20

 

Previous 2 days:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	10	3	11	7
Seats Added	0	1,317	396	1,950	1,228
Seats Sold	3,034	3,148	4,189	5,354	11,444
1/22/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	434	4,596	115,671	864,544	13.38%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	25	110	238
ATP
$18.17

 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	4	0	10	3	11
Seats Added	131	0	1,317	396	1,950
Seats Sold	3,009	3,034	3,148	4,189	5,354
1/23/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	434	4,600	118,680	864,675	13.73%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	28	115	245
ATP
$18.14

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

AMQ commercials seem to be pushing 3D quite a bit. Do we have any idea of the breakdown vs other films (Avatar or 2022 MCU)? @ZackM @katnisscinnaplex @Inceptionzq

 

[Porthos]

28 minutes ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

AMQ commercials seem to be pushing 3D quite a bit. Do we have any idea of the breakdown vs other films (Avatar or 2022 MCU)? @ZackM @katnisscinnaplex @Inceptionzq

 

 

I can tell you that anecdotally speaking the number of 3D seats sold locally isn't that much higher from 2022 MCU films.

 

At T-25/T-24 [not counting L&T which had only been on sale for one day and thus hadn't really established patterns yet]:

 

MoM [T-25]:    9.12% of all tickets sold

BP2   [T-24]:   8.48% of all tickets sold

AM3 [T-24]:  10.92% of all tickets sold

 

So a small increase but might just be variance. 

 

FWIW, I have noticed them pushing 3D in advertising as well and have noted that there is a bit more of an emphasis on 3D locally.  OTOH, there was discussion last year that Disney might have been putting a bit more of an emphasis on 3D for various MCU films last year as a way to prep audiences/get audiences re-accustomed to/test the waters (no pun intended) for A2.

 

Then again, it might just be down to director preference combined with marketing trying to strike while the iron is hot in regards to 3D.

[GOGODanca]

Hopefully audiences don't fall for it like they did post avatar and have their perception of it ruined again

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

AMQ commercials seem to be pushing 3D quite a bit. Do we have any idea of the breakdown vs other films (Avatar or 2022 MCU)? @ZackM @katnisscinnaplex @Inceptionzq

 

I don't do any breakouts for 3D.  It might be in the data I gather, but honestly I don't have much interest in digging into it.

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 hours ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

AMQ commercials seem to be pushing 3D quite a bit. Do we have any idea of the breakdown vs other films (Avatar or 2022 MCU)? @ZackM @katnisscinnaplex @Inceptionzq

 

For shows distribution in US sample (3 weeks out for comps)

Movie - Total - 3D - IMAX

AMQ - 23,344 - 3,855 - 997

Avatar - 18,177 - 9,932 - 805

Thor 4 - 23,551 - 3,784 - 1,062

JW3 - 19,486 - 2,709 - 825

DS2 - 30,203 - 4,641 - 885

 

Very close distribution to Thor and DS2.  Slightly higher 3D % but nothing out of the ordinary.

[filmlover]

All of the Best Picture nominees (minus Avatar, since it's already playing nationwide) are looking to get substantial theater increases this weekend from what I'm seeing. Hopefully the grosses for the lower-grossing movies (at least the ones that aren't already available for free on streaming services) are able to improve a bit over the next few weeks.

[Eric Prime]

22 hours ago, Eric Slay said:

Knock at the Cabin Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	34	145	6481	2.24%

 

Comp

2.014x of M3GAN (5.54M)

 

Felt like I wanted to do another run, specifically an original horror piece that I could use for future original horror titles. Not ideal since I didn't start it at day 1, but better than nothing.

Knock at the Cabin Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	34	147	6481	2.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

 

Comp - T-9

1.815x of M3GAN (4.99M)

[Eric Prime]

22 hours ago, Eric Slay said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	3334	31384	10.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 79

 

Comp - T-24

2.825x of Black Widow (37.29M)

4.381x of Eternals (41.62M)

0.419x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.09M)

0.904x of Thor 4 (26.21M)

0.596x of Black Panther 2 (16.68M)

3.717x of Avatar 2 (63.19M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	3442	31384	10.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 108

 

Comp - T-23

2.697x of Black Widow (35.61M)

3.725x of Eternals (35.39M)

0.422x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.2M)

0.840x of Thor 4 (24.36M)

0.601x of Black Panther 2 (16.84M)

3.095x of Avatar 2 (52.62M)

[Flip]

59 minutes ago, filmlover said:

All of the Best Picture nominees (minus Avatar, since it's already playing nationwide) are looking to get substantial theater increases this weekend from what I'm seeing. Hopefully the grosses for the lower-grossing movies (at least the ones that aren't already available for free on streaming services) are able to improve a bit over the next few weeks.

Will Maverick get a rerelease or no because it's already streaming?

[poweranimals]

8 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

Hopefully audiences don't fall for it like they did post avatar and have their perception of it ruined again

I feel like with the Quantum Realm it might be worth seeing it in 3D. DS2 for instance actually had some really nice 3D sequences.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	28808	32526	3718	11.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

93

 

T-24 Comps

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	43.31		253	8584		0/329	32332/40916	20.98%		21117	17.61%		15.59m
L&T	89.35		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	21.92%		25.91m
BP2	65.14		89	5708		1/294	31311/37019	15.42%		16800	22.13%		18.24m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     720/12953  [5.56% sold]
Matinee:    111/3317  [3.35% | 2.99% of all tickets sold]
3D:          406/6473  [6.27% | 10.92% of all tickets sold]

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	28711	32556	3845	11.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

127

 

T-23 Comps

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	43.80		195	8779		0/329	32131/40910	21.46%		21117	18.21%		15.77m
L&T	81.39		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	22.67%		23.60m
BP2	66.18		102	5810		1/294	31209/37019	15.69%		16800	22.89%		18.53m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     742/12953  [5.73% sold]
Matinee:    113/3317  [3.41% | 2.94% of all tickets sold]
3D:           425/6479  [6.56% | 11.05% of all tickets sold]

[Cooper Legion]

To be on track for a 25M final BP2 comp in the land of dark magic, probably looking for it to clear 20M ~T-14/15

Edited January 25, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 1/24/2023 at 7:38 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-9	Jax	5	15	17	33	1,926	1.71%
		Phx	5	12	0	20	1,360	1.47%
		Ral	7	22	3	38	1,887	2.01%
	Total		17	49	20	91	5,173	1.76%
Ant-Man 3	T-23	Jax	6	91	19	928	15,860	5.85%
		Phx	6	85	32	996	15,027	6.63%
		Ral	8	102	47	969	13,657	7.10%
	Total		20	278	98	2,893	44,544	6.49%
Brady (1/28)	T-4	Jax	2	2	5	35	365	9.59%
	Total		2	2	5	35	365	9.59%
Brady (1/31)	T-7	Jax	3	3	9	22	446	4.93%
		Phx	1	1	4	16	106	15.09%
		Ral	1	1	2	4	139	2.88%
	Total		5	5	15	42	691	6.08%
Brady (2/1)	T-8	Jax	3	3	1	5	446	1.12%
		Phx	1	1	4	12	106	11.32%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	73	0.00%
	Total		5	5	5	17	625	2.72%
Infinity Pool	T-2	Jax	4	5	7	27	445	6.07%
		Phx	6	8	2	12	683	1.76%
		Ral	4	4	6	17	452	3.76%
	Total		14	17	15	56	1,580	3.54%
Knock at Cabin	T-9	Jax	6	17	4	44	2,908	1.51%
		Phx	4	10	1	22	1,554	1.42%
		Ral	7	19	1	33	2,927	1.13%
	Total		17	46	6	99	7,389	1.34%
Left Behind	T-2	Jax	4	5	11	75	518	14.48%
		Phx	5	5	27	149	830	17.95%
		Ral	5	5	16	92	530	17.36%
	Total		14	15	54	316	1,878	16.83%
Magic Mike 3	T-16	Jax	3	15	4	4	1,395	0.29%
		Phx	3	7	0	0	919	0.00%
		Ral	6	14	5	5	1,796	0.28%

Total

12

36

9

9

4,110

0.22%

 

Left Behind T-2 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - .707x (546k)

 - Chosen Season 3 (OD) - .146x (548k)

 

Infinity Pool T-2 comps

 - The Night House - 2.333x (607k)

 - Black Phone - .175x (455k)

 - Antlers - .933x (345k)

 - Men - .596x (252k)

 - X - .629x (277k)

 - Firestarter - .629x (236k)

 

80 for Brady T-9 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.033x (1.52m)

 - Menu - 1.096x (1.096m)

 - Violent Night - 1.264x (1.39m)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-9 comps

 - Nope - .21x (1.345m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - 1x (2.6m)

 - Halloween Ends - .256x (1.38m)

 - Northman - .917x (1.238m)

 - Crawdads - .495x (990k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-23 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.66x (35.16m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .362x (13.03m)

 - Thor 4 - .86x (24.86m)

 - Eternals - 3.79x (36.02m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-8	Jax	5	15	-5	28	1,926	1.45%
		Phx	5	12	-2	18	1,360	1.32%
		Ral	7	22	0	38	1,887	2.01%
	Total		17	49	-7	84	5,173	1.62%
Ant-Man 3	T-22	Jax	6	91	24	952	15,860	6.00%
		Phx	6	85	39	1,035	15,027	6.89%
		Ral	8	102	33	1,002	13,657	7.34%
	Total		20	278	96	2,989	44,544	6.71%
Brady (1/28)	T-3	Jax	2	2	15	50	365	13.70%
	Total		2	2	15	50	365	13.70%
Brady (1/31)	T-6	Jax	3	3	4	26	446	5.83%
		Phx	1	1	6	22	106	20.75%
		Ral	1	1	-2	2	139	1.44%
	Total		5	5	8	50	691	7.24%
Brady (2/1)	T-7	Jax	3	3	9	14	446	3.14%
		Phx	1	1	0	12	106	11.32%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	73	0.00%
	Total		5	5	9	26	625	4.16%
Infinity Pool	T-1	Jax	5	7	9	36	571	6.30%
		Phx	6	8	10	22	683	3.22%
		Ral	6	9	4	21	966	2.17%
	Total		17	24	23	79	2,220	3.56%
Knock at Cabin	T-8	Jax	6	17	3	47	2,908	1.62%
		Phx	4	10	0	22	1,554	1.42%
		Ral	7	19	2	35	2,927	1.20%
	Total		17	46	5	104	7,389	1.41%
Left Behind	T-1	Jax	4	5	28	103	518	19.88%
		Phx	5	6	58	207	1,070	19.35%
		Ral	5	5	12	104	530	19.62%
	Total		14	16	98	414	2,118	19.55%
Magic Mike 3	T-15	Jax	4	19	12	16	2,077	0.77%
		Phx	4	9	0	0	1,567	0.00%
		Ral	7	16	5	10	2,018	0.50%
	Total		15	44	17	26	5,662	0.46%

 

Left Behind T-1 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - .922x (712k)

 - Chosen Season 3 (OD) - .18x (674k)

 

Infinity Pool T-1 comps

 - The Night House - 2.821x (734k)

 - Black Phone - .184x (479k)

 - Antlers - 1.082x (400k)

 - Men - .612x (259k)

 - X - .581x (256k)

 - Firestarter - .712x (267k)

 

80 for Brady T-8 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.897x (1.45m)

 - Menu - .816x (816k)

 - Violent Night - 1.012x (1.11m)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-8 comps

 - Nope - .21x (1.345m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .981x (2.55m)

 - Halloween Ends - .252x (1.36m)

 - Northman - .794x (1.07m)

 - Crawdads - .475x (950k)

 

Magic Mike 3 T-15 comps

 - 80 for Brady - .929x

 - Violent Night - 1.182x (1.3m)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-22 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.31x (30.49m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .363x (13.07m)

 - Thor 4 - .787x (22.82m)

 - Eternals - 3.37x (32.05m)