The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/25/2023 at 11:24 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Champions	T-12	Jax	4	6	1	1	649	0.15%
		Phx	5	8	1	1	674	0.15%
		Ral	6	11	0	0	1,083	0.00%
	Total		15	25	2	2	2,406	0.08%
Creed III	T-5	Jax	5	27	10	123	4,400	2.80%
		Phx	6	17	18	120	2,573	4.66%
		Ral	8	20	25	139	2,624	5.30%
	Total		19	64	53	382	9,597	3.98%
Creed III (EA)	T-4	Jax	5	8	3	95	2,172	4.37%
		Phx	1	2	0	22	618	3.56%
		Ral	2	2	10	56	412	13.59%
	Total		8	12	13	173	3,202	5.40%
Creed III (Pre)	T-2	Jax	1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
	Total		1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
Demon Slayer 2	T-6	Jax	5	17	7	340	2,730	12.45%
(OD)		Phx	5	15	29	434	2,556	16.98%
		Ral	7	23	36	426	2,664	15.99%
	Total		17	55	72	1,200	7,950	15.09%
Op Fortune	T-5	Jax	5	8	0	0	853	0.00%
		Phx	5	8	5	5	646	0.77%
		Ral	5	10	2	2	700	0.29%
	Total		15	26	7	7	2,199	0.32%
Scream VI	T-12	Jax	5	27	1	183	3,748	4.88%
		Phx	5	17	8	299	2,894	10.33%
		Ral	8	33	7	191	4,211	4.54%
	Total		18	77	16	673	10,853	6.20%
Shazam 2	T-19	Jax	5	56	0	83	9,734	0.85%
		Phx	6	29	0	99	6,134	1.61%
		Ral	8	53	3	119	7,666	1.55%
	Total		19	138	3	301	23,534	1.28%

 

Creed III EA T-4 comps

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Bullet Train EA - 1.545x (1.93m)

 - Elvis EA - 1.84x (552k)

 

Creed III T-5 comps

 - Elvis - .916x (2.93m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - F9 - .335x (2.38m)

 

Operation Fortune T-5 comps

 - Plane - .25x (156k)

 - Ambulance - .171x (120k)

 - Bones & All - .333x (115k)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-6 comps

 - MHA - missed

 - JJK 0 - missed

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.261x (5.42m)

 - Slime - 19.67x (4.92m)

 

Scream VI T-12 comps

 - Nope - 1.762x (11.28m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - missed

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 2.404x (9.85m)

 - F9 - .957x (6.8m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.017x (6.1m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.622x (6.73m)

 - Morbius - 1.217x (6.94m)

 

Champions T-12 comps

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - 1x

 - Respect - .182x (118k)

 

Shazam 2 T-19 comps

 - Sonic 2 - missed

 - Black Widow - .198x (2.62m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .093x (1.62m)

 - Eternals - missed

 - F9 - 0.81x (5.78m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Champions	T-10	Jax	4	6	0	1	649	0.15%
		Phx	5	8	0	1	674	0.15%
		Ral	6	11	0	0	1,083	0.00%
	Total		15	25	0	2	2,406	0.08%
Creed III	T-3	Jax	5	27	58	181	4,400	4.11%
		Phx	6	17	39	159	2,573	6.18%
		Ral	8	20	57	196	2,624	7.47%
	Total		19	64	154	536	9,597	5.59%
Creed III (EA)	T-2	Jax	5	8	27	122	2,172	5.62%
		Phx	1	2	21	43	618	6.96%
		Ral	2	2	19	75	412	18.20%
	Total		8	12	67	240	3,202	7.50%
Creed III (Pre)	T-0	Jax	1	1	10	20	389	5.14%
	Total		1	1	10	20	389	5.14%
Demon Slayer 2	T-4	Jax	5	17	69	409	2,730	14.98%
(OD)		Phx	5	15	55	489	2,556	19.13%
		Ral	7	23	93	519	2,664	19.48%
	Total		17	55	217	1,417	7,950	17.82%
Op Fortune	T-3	Jax	5	8	0	0	853	0.00%
		Phx	5	8	0	5	646	0.77%
		Ral	5	10	5	7	700	1.00%
	Total		15	26	5	12	2,199	0.55%
Scream VI	T-10	Jax	5	27	16	199	3,748	5.31%
		Phx	5	17	29	328	2,894	11.33%
		Ral	8	33	13	204	4,211	4.84%
	Total		18	77	58	731	10,853	6.74%
Shazam 2	T-17	Jax	5	56	23	106	9,734	1.09%
		Phx	6	29	8	107	6,134	1.74%
		Ral	8	53	14	133	7,666	1.73%
	Total		19	138	45	346	23,534	1.47%

*New since Sat morning

 

Creed III EA T-2 comps

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Ghostbusters EA - 6.857x (2.4m)

 - Bullet Train EA - 1.538x (1.92m)

 - Elvis EA - missed

 

Creed III T-3 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - Dune - .455x (2.32m)

 - F9 - .37x (2.63m)

 - Death on the Nile - 3.25x (3.57m)

 - Bullet Train - 1.235x (4.14m)

 - Free Guy - 1.757x (3.87m)

 - Suicide Squad - .869x (3.56m)

 

Operation Fortune T-3 comps

 - Plane - .218x (136k)

 - Ambulance - .2x (140k)

 - Bones & All - .3x (103k)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-4 comps

 - MHA - 1.462x (4.22m)

 - JJK 0 - 1.301x (3.75m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.352x (5.82m)

 - Slime - 22.14x (5.54m)

 

Scream VI T-10 comps

 - Nope - 1.724x (11.03m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.86x (11.4m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 2.421x (9.92m)

 - F9 - .905x (6.42m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .87x (5.22m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.545x (6.41m)

 - Morbius - 1.192x (6.8m)

 

Champions T-10 comps

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - .286x

 - Respect - .083x (54k)

 

Shazam 2 T-17 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.263x (6.29m)

 - Black Widow - .21x (2.77m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .1x (1.76m)

 - Eternals - .292x (2.78m)

 - F9 - .78x (5.57m)

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Champions	T-10	Jax	4	6	0	1	649	0.15%
		Phx	5	8	0	1	674	0.15%
		Ral	6	11	0	0	1,083	0.00%
	Total		15	25	0	2	2,406	0.08%
Creed III	T-3	Jax	5	27	58	181	4,400	4.11%
		Phx	6	17	39	159	2,573	6.18%
		Ral	8	20	57	196	2,624	7.47%
	Total		19	64	154	536	9,597	5.59%
Creed III (EA)	T-2	Jax	5	8	27	122	2,172	5.62%
		Phx	1	2	21	43	618	6.96%
		Ral	2	2	19	75	412	18.20%
	Total		8	12	67	240	3,202	7.50%
Creed III (Pre)	T-0	Jax	1	1	10	20	389	5.14%
	Total		1	1	10	20	389	5.14%
Demon Slayer 2	T-4	Jax	5	17	69	409	2,730	14.98%
(OD)		Phx	5	15	55	489	2,556	19.13%
		Ral	7	23	93	519	2,664	19.48%
	Total		17	55	217	1,417	7,950	17.82%
Op Fortune	T-3	Jax	5	8	0	0	853	0.00%
		Phx	5	8	0	5	646	0.77%
		Ral	5	10	5	7	700	1.00%
	Total		15	26	5	12	2,199	0.55%
Scream VI	T-10	Jax	5	27	16	199	3,748	5.31%
		Phx	5	17	29	328	2,894	11.33%
		Ral	8	33	13	204	4,211	4.84%
	Total		18	77	58	731	10,853	6.74%
Shazam 2	T-17	Jax	5	56	23	106	9,734	1.09%
		Phx	6	29	8	107	6,134	1.74%
		Ral	8	53	14	133	7,666	1.73%
	Total		19	138	45	346	23,534	1.47%

*New since Sat morning

 

Creed III EA T-2 comps

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Ghostbusters EA - 6.857x (2.4m)

 - Bullet Train EA - 1.538x (1.92m)

 - Elvis EA - missed

 

Creed III T-3 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - Dune - .455x (2.32m)

 - F9 - .37x (2.63m)

 - Death on the Nile - 3.25x (3.57m)

 - Bullet Train - 1.235x (4.14m)

 - Free Guy - 1.757x (3.87m)

 - Suicide Squad - .869x (3.56m)

 

Operation Fortune T-3 comps

 - Plane - .218x (136k)

 - Ambulance - .2x (140k)

 - Bones & All - .3x (103k)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-4 comps

 - MHA - 1.462x (4.22m)

 - JJK 0 - 1.301x (3.75m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.352x (5.82m)

 - Slime - 22.14x (5.54m)

 

Scream VI T-10 comps

 - Nope - 1.724x (11.03m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.86x (11.4m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 2.421x (9.92m)

 - F9 - .905x (6.42m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .87x (5.22m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.545x (6.41m)

 - Morbius - 1.192x (6.8m)

 

Champions T-10 comps

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - .286x

 - Respect - .083x (54k)

 

Shazam 2 T-17 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.263x (6.29m)

 - Black Widow - .21x (2.77m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .1x (1.76m)

 - Eternals - .292x (2.78m)

 - F9 - .78x (5.57m)

Are you comping DS against thursday previews despite it being a friday opener? Not sure how those will work out.

[vafrow]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-81 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	23164	23621	457	1.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Thursday

36

 

BREAKDOWN

  Reveal hidden contents

 

T-83:	14
T-82:	13
T-81:	9

 

 

 

0.91455x F9 (2020) at T-81 at the equivalent sources of tracking.    [???m]

 

Regal:      74/8019  [0.92% sold]
Matinee:    9/2638  [0.34% | 1.97% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

I know I said I wasn't going to update this thread until Thursday, but I decided there were enough sales to warrant an update.

 

Next update will be on Thursday, as planned.

 

(meant to post this with the Scream update, but got distracted by something else)

 

I've been pessimistic about this movies chances, but, in light of the trends around Marvel, I think it might have one of the best possible release dates of the summer.

 

If there's reduced enthusiasm around GOTG, and/or more front loaded, they're going to get a prime slot without a lot of direct competition. The big release around Memorial Day is for a completely different market.

 

[Eric is Quiet]

5 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

@Porthos | @Eric Bear Is Demon Slayer invisible in your area?

Sorry to say this, but I'm skipping Demon Slayer because it's not having any Thursday previews. I used to do movies that started on Friday, but this kind of tracking takes a good amount of work to do and it's not always easy to balance this out with my personal life. I hope you understand.

[Eric is Quiet]

Speaking of personal life, I recently got a job at my local Target, but it's an overnight position. This means my usual time of tracking will be disrupted from working. So I will have some days where I will track in the afternoon and not at night. I don't think it will matter too much, especially near the end, but it will lead to some weird disruptions probably. But that's because getting paid is more important than tracking Philly sales. Just want to make sure people are aware.

[ChipDerby]

1 hour ago, Eric Bear said:

 But that's because getting paid is more important than tracking Philly sales. Just want to make sure people are aware.

 

disagree

[Boxofficerules]

Is Scream VI still looking good?

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Is Scream VI still looking good?

 

Very.

 

Main worry for it, and it's hard to call it a 'worry' with the amount of sales it's had so far, is if it was abnormally frontloaded for a horror flick when it comes to pre-sales.  So unexpectedly poor reviews (for a horror film/this franchise) might still sap some momentum for it.  Or it might be that for whatever reason a higher percentage of folks bought tickets for this film early.  But unless it has the frontloadedness of a lower-end CBM it really ought to have a very nice preview number indeed.  Even against something like Black Adam it is still at the mid 5.5's.

[Dragoncaine]

19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Very.

 

Main worry for it, and it's hard to call it a 'worry' with the amount of sales it's had so far, is if it was abnormally frontloaded for a horror flick when it comes to pre-sales.  So unexpectedly poor reviews (for a horror film/this franchise) might still sap some momentum for it.  Or it might be that for whatever reason a higher percentage of folks bought tickets for this film early.  But unless it has the frontloadedness of a lower-end CBM it really ought to have a very nice preview number indeed.  Even against something like Black Adam it is still at the mid 5.5's.

If reviews are similar to Scream (2022), feels like this has a chance to break out huge and hit $50m.

 

Is there a social media embargo for Scream VI, or just the review embargo on the 8th?

[Porthos]

39 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

If reviews are similar to Scream (2022), feels like this has a chance to break out huge and hit $50m.

 

Is there a social media embargo for Scream VI, or just the review embargo on the 8th?

 

Social embargo later this week:

 

 

FWIW, put me in the camp of saying this is semi- sorta- kinda- "notable" simply because it is a slasher horror flick and thus allowing any sort of reactions a week ahead of time points to the studio at least not caring about initial reactions getting out.

 

At the same time I do mean semi- sorta- kinda- simply because I do think folks read too much into when embargoes are lifted, as most recently seen with AM3.  Studios have all sorts of reasons as for why they have their marketing strats and even if they think they have a hit on their hands and want to build some buzz.... they might be wrong and misreading their own product.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Renfield T-46: 22.39%, 5.23

The Covenant T-53: 24.42%, 5.31

About My Father T-88: 17.39%, 4.92

Barbie T-144: 37.68%, 4.49

 

Creed III T-4: 58.4% Awareness, 6.37 Interest

Final Awareness: 75% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 25% chance of 60M

Final Interest: 89% chance of 30M, 74% chance of 40M, 58% chance of 50M, 53% chance of 60M

 

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre T-4: 22.29% Awareness, 4.79 Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 19% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 50% chance of 5M, 25% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 25% chance of 5M, 8% chance of 10M

 

65 T-11: 27.82% Awareness, 5.86 Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 70% chance of 10M, 48% chance of 20M

Original - High Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Original - High Interest: 50% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M

 

Scream VI T-11: 60.02% Awareness, 6.21 Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 89% chance of 70M

Final Interest: 89% chance of 30M, 74% chance of 40M, 58% chance of 50M, 53% chance of 60M, 47% chance of 70M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M
Horror Interest: 75% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 40M

 

Evil Dead Rise T-53: 32.84%, 5.5 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 92% chance of 10M, 69% chance of 20M

T-60 Interest: 74% chance of 10M, 65% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 67% chance of 30M, 33% chance of 40M

[Boxofficerules]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Very.

 

Main worry for it, and it's hard to call it a 'worry' with the amount of sales it's had so far, is if it was abnormally frontloaded for a horror flick when it comes to pre-sales.  So unexpectedly poor reviews (for a horror film/this franchise) might still sap some momentum for it.  Or it might be that for whatever reason a higher percentage of folks bought tickets for this film early.  But unless it has the frontloadedness of a lower-end CBM it really ought to have a very nice preview number indeed.  Even against something like Black Adam it is still at the mid 5.5's.

I’m just wary as I’ve been burned before by Scream Box Office.

[el sid]

Creed III, counted today for Thursday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7):  143 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 115 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 8 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 1 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 27 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 112 (7 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 175 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 584. 
 

Comps (both counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): Plane (435k from previews) had 89 sold tickets in 6 theaters
and The Woman King (1.7M) had 128 sold tickets in 5 theaters.
Black Adam (7.6M) had on Tuesday = 1 day left for Creed 2.084 sold tickets. Creed III will probably be at over 700 tickets tomorrow.
Surprisingly uneven at the moment.
 

Creed III, counted today for Friday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 209 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 87 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 31 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 9 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 27 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 110 (11 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 194 (14 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 667. Not frontloaded.
 

Comps (all three counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): Plane (10.2M OW) had 83 sold tickets,
The Woman King (19.1M) had 155 sold tickets
and F9 (70M) had 1.656 sold tickets.
King Richard (5.4M) finally (= on Thursday for Friday) had 283 sold tickets.
 

Idk. The jumps from last Thursday till today were not as big as I thought, especially for Thursday (maybe because of the shows on Wednesday). OTOH the presales for both days are still very good for a Monday of the release week. So with decent jumps in the next few days, everything is fine.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I’m just wary as I’ve been burned before by Scream Box Office.

 

I mean, fair.  I'd be more worried about the OW than the preview number in that case though.

[Boxofficerules]

17 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I mean, fair.  I'd be more worried about the OW than the preview number in that case though.

Why is the opening weekend looking bad?

[misterpepp]

If there's Star Wars fans in here, you may be happy about what might be coming on April 28...

Edited February 27, 2023 by datpepper

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Why is the opening weekend looking bad?

 

No, I meant we just don't have enough information to really comment on it, except for noting the possibility of a large ran rush perhaps deflating the OW internal multi.

Edited February 27, 2023 by Porthos

[Krissykins]

Scream VI will be front-loaded. It’s a very “online” franchise, it’s a blockbuster for horror fans, it’s a part 6, nostalgia, it has a fan event.
 

But the other main factor causing potential frontloaded-ness: it’s a whodunnit and no one wants to be spoiled. Which most other horrors don’t have the problem of. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-18

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
14	81	2489	3.2%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
2	0

 

 

CINEMARK FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-18

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	16	1780	0.89%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
4	0

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-17

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
14	86	2489	3.4%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
5	0

 

 

 

CINEMARK FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-17

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	16	1780	0.89%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
0	0

[GOGODanca]

Return of the Jedi re-release april 28 dolby 

 

https://professional.dolby.com/cinema/theatrical-releases/