The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

On 2/28/2023 at 11:25 PM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Creed III Greater Sacramento Report [T-2]:

1471/13646 (10.78% sold) [+372 tickets/+477 seats]

Sellouts: 1 (+0)

 

97.42% of GBA              at T-2 (4.38m)

70.18% of Sonic 2         at T-2 (4.39m)

16.89% of TGM             at T-2 (3.25m)

21.45% of JWD              at T-2 (3.86m)

94.96% of Nope            at T-2 (6.07m)

57.26% of Black Adam at T-2 (4.35m)

 

===

 

Forgot to note there is a sellout locally in last night's Q&D.  Edited last night's post and repeated the info here.

 

Quick and Dirty Creed III Greater Sacramento Report [T-1]:

2279/13768 (16.55% sold) [+808 tickets/+122 seats]

Sellouts: 1 (+0)

 

81.80% of NTTD            at T-1 (5.07m)

109.57% of GBA            at T-1 (4.93m)

79.05% of Sonic 2         at T-1 (4.94m)

23.60% of TGM             at T-1 (4.55m)

27.07% of JWD              at T-1 (4.87m)

100.89% of Nope          at T-1 (6.46m)

72.26% of Black Adam at T-1 (5.49m)

 

Yeaaaah, this is clearing 5m with ease. 👍

[Porthos]

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	82	11915	12396	481	3.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

481

 

Day 1 Comps

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	122.39		393	393		0/82	12755/13148	2.99%		4407	10.80%		8.69m
Dune	122.08		394	394		0/74	11255/11649	3.38%		2915	16.50%		6.23m
GBA	241.71		199	199		0/104	15788/15987	1.24%		3034	15.85%		10.88m
FB3	151.26		318	318		0/146	21739/22057	1.44%		4456	10.79%		9.08m
TGM	31.73		1516	1516		0/256	34603/36119	4.20%		11474	4.19%		6.11m
BA	112.91		426	426		0/142	21387/21813	1.95%		4494	10.70%		8.58m
A2	36.44		1320	1320		0/138	19300/20620	6.40%		8986	5.35%		6.19m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     87/3784  [2.30% sold]
Matinee:    10/1253  [0.80% | 2.08% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

I don't have any good recent comps for this at all.  So against my better judgement, I'm pulling up some 2021 comps, without any sort of ATP adjustment.  I did want to add NTTD, but I added the EA showings late (on my third day of tracking), so it's skewed at the moment so I won't add it to the comp block for a bit.

 

Threw in some frontloaded comps and not very good ones, really.  Also wanted to add JWD, but its 40+ day pre-sale pattern made it... unsuitable.  I'll see what other trackers are using, but really no matter how it's sliced, it was a good day for the Baba Yaga locally.

 

Even did very respectable against TGM, which blew the fuck up locally if folks recall.  So I just edited that info in.

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Porthos

[Eric Prime]

On 3/1/2023 at 2:18 AM, Eric Creed said:

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	2102	15882	13.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 439

 

Comp - T-2

1.085x of F9 (7.7M)

1.125x of No Time to Die (7.08M)

1.629x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (7.33M)

1.420x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (8.52M)

1.675x of Nope (10.72M)

1.091x of Black Adam (8.29M)

0.181x of Black Panther 2 (5.08M)

0.515x of Avatar 2 (8.76M)

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	85	2825	16124	17.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 723

 

Comp - T-1

1.118x of F9 (7.94M)

1.225x of No Time to Die (7.72M)

1.764x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (7.94M)

1.643x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (9.86M)

1.620x of Nope (10.37M)

1.220x of Black Adam (9.27M)

0.216x of Black Panther 2 (6.04M)

0.621x of Avatar 2 (10.55M)

[Eric Prime]

On 3/1/2023 at 2:25 AM, Eric Creed said:

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Gurre Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	38	2267	1.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp - T-2

0.187x of Snake Eyes (262K)

0.679x of The 355 (237K)

0.178x of Moonfall (125K)

0.355x of Ambulance (248K)

0.039x of Bullet Train (181K)

0.188x of Violent Night (207K)

0.262x of Plane (164K)

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Gurre Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	56	2267	2.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 18

 

Comp - T-1

0.215x of Snake Eyes (301K)

0.208x of The King's Man (166K)

0.737x of The 355 (258K)

0.229x of Moonfall (160K)

0.368x of Ambulance (270K)

0.049x of Bullet Train (227K)

0.219x of Violent Night (241K)

0.257x of Plane (160K)

[Eric Prime]

On 3/1/2023 at 2:31 AM, Eric Creed said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	825	8450	9.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 44

 

Comp - T-9

1.618x of Halloween Kills (7.84M)

1.892x of Scream (6.62M)

1.964x of Nope (12.57M)

1.129x of Halloween Ends (6.09M)

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	885	8450	10.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 60

 

Comp - T-8

1.589x of Halloween Kills (7.71M)

1.836x of Scream (6.43M)

1.958x of Nope (12.53M)

1.130x of Halloween Ends (6.1M)

[Eric Prime]

On 3/1/2023 at 2:46 AM, Eric Creed said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	280	17155	1.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

 

Comp - T-16

0.163x of Black Widow (2.15M)

1.191x of The Suicide Squad (4.88M)

0.397x of Shang-Chi (3.49M)

0.206x of Eternals (1.96M)

0.841x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (3.78M)

0.575x of Morbius (3.28M)

0.601x of Sonic 2 (3.75M)

1.057x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (6.34M)

0.178x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3.21M)

0.070x of Ant-Man 3 (1.22M)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	291	17155	1.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today; 11

 

Comp - T-15

0.165x of Black Widow (2.17M)

1.169x of The Suicide Squad (4.79M)

0.351x of Shang-Chi (3.09M)

0.202x of Eternals (1.91M)

0.742x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (3.34M)

0.548x of Morbius (3.12M)

0.604x of Sonic 2 (3.77M)

0.813x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (4.88M)

0.182x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3.27M)

0.469x of Black Adam (3.57M)

0.071x of Ant-Man 3 (1.24M)

[Eric Prime]

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	307	12629	2.43%

 

Comp - T-22

0.677x of F9 (4.8M)

1.271x of Venom 2 (14.74M)

0.457x of Top Gun 2 (8.81M)

0.211x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3.8M)

0.240x of Avatar (4.08M)

 

Yeah.

[dxmatrixdt]

any comparisons with John Wick to The Matrix Resurrections just for the first day of sales?

[Menor the Destroyer]

Creed 3 Marcus:

 

Friday:

Showings: 861

Seats Sold: 8327/125956

 

1.654x Bullet Train (13.56 million) (actually higher due to blocked seats)

 

Pace is well over double Bullet Train at the moment. I think Friday can hit something crazy like 16 if it keeps running hot. 

[M37]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

Even did very respectable against TGM, which blew the fuck up locally if folks recall.  So I just edited that info in.

Fwiw, I'm expecting Wick sales to play a little fan-ish and skew somewhat older, but to not Avatar/NTTD level, and TGM is probably the comp I'd eye the most in general (though in your market perhaps a little less so, at least in the beginning).

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
65	T-8	Jax	4	20	1	1	1,784	0.06%
		Phx	4	9	0	0	1,008	0.00%
		Ral	6	20	0	0	2,197	0.00%
	Total		14	49	1	1	4,989	0.02%
Champions	T-8	Jax	4	6	0	1	649	0.15%
		Phx	5	8	0	1	674	0.15%
		Ral	6	11	0	0	1,083	0.00%
	Total		15	25	0	2	2,406	0.08%
Creed III	T-1	Jax	5	33	97	289	5,052	5.72%
		Phx	7	28	74	275	3,818	7.20%
		Ral	8	34	72	309	3,665	8.43%
	Total		20	95	243	873	12,535	6.96%
Creed III (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	8	49	191	2,172	8.79%
		Phx	1	2	32	93	618	15.05%
		Ral	2	2	20	104	412	25.24%
	Total		8	12	101	388	3,202	12.12%
Demon Slayer 2	T-2	Jax	5	25	68	530	3,324	15.94%
(OD)		Phx	5	31	111	659	4,957	13.29%
		Ral	7	31	110	685	3,372	20.31%
	Total		17	87	289	1,874	11,653	16.08%
John Wick 4	T-22	Jax	5	40	38	38	6,900	0.55%
		Phx	4	21	37	37	3,854	0.96%
		Ral	6	31	43	43	4,293	1.00%
	Total		15	92	118	118	15,047	0.78%
Op Fortune	T-1	Jax	5	8	0	2	853	0.23%
		Phx	7	12	12	21	967	2.17%
		Ral	7	13	10	17	854	1.99%
	Total		19	33	22	40	2,674	1.50%
Scream VI	T-8	Jax	5	31	13	220	4,222	5.21%
		Phx	6	24	26	366	4,824	7.59%
		Ral	8	33	6	210	4,211	4.99%
	Total		19	88	45	796	13,257	6.00%
Shazam 2	T-15	Jax	5	56	2	117	9,734	1.20%
		Phx	6	29	3	127	6,134	2.07%
		Ral	8	53	4	134	7,666	1.75%
	Total		19	138	9	378	23,534	1.61%

 

Lots of new shows added for this week's releases and added 65 and John Wick!

 

Creed III EA T-0 comps

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Ghostbusters EA - 5.389x (1.89m)

 - Bullet Train EA - 1.504x (1.88m)

 - Elvis EA - 2.57x (771k)

 - Crawdads EA - 7.185x (2.16m)

 

Looking like close to 2m from EA!

 

Creed III T-1 comps

 - Elvis - 1.015x (3.25m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - Dune - .495x (2.53m)

 - F9 - .4x (2.84m)

 - Death on the Nile - 3.51x (3.86m)

 - Bullet Train - 1.178x (3.95m)

 - Free Guy - 2.161x (4.75m)

 - Suicide Squad - .911x (3.74m)

 

Aaand maybe around 3.5m for true previews.

 

Operation Fortune T-1 comps

 - Plane - .286x (179k)

 - Ambulance - .305x (214k)

 - Bones & All - .58x (200k)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-2 comps

 - MHA (OD) - 1.604x (4.63m)

 - JJK 0 - 1.386x (3.99m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.521x (6.55m)

 - Slime - 20.82x (5.21m)

 - One Piece - 2.689x (4.56m)

 

Expecting around 4.5m Friday at this point, and most theaters are finally adding a second screen.

 

Scream VI T-8 comps

 - Nope - 1.608x (10.29m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.65x (11.1m)

 - Black Adam - .807x (6.14m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.327x (9.54m)

 - F9 - .884x (6.28m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .765x (4.59m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.453x (6.03m)

 - Morbius - 1.086x (6.19m)

 

Champions T-8 comps

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - .222x

 - Respect - .057x (37k)

 

Shazam 2 T-15 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.252x (6.23m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.047x (6.28m)

 - No Time to Die - 1.068x (5.55m)

 - F9 - .7x (4.96m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.3x (5.39m)

 

Finally some (maybe) more realistic comps.  Hopefully this is not a CBM.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
65	T-7	Jax	4	20	6	7	1,784	0.39%
		Phx	5	11	20	20	1,382	1.45%
		Ral	6	20	23	23	2,197	1.05%
	Total		15	51	49	50	5,363	0.93%
Champions	T-7	Jax	4	6	0	1	649	0.15%
		Phx	5	8	0	1	674	0.15%
		Ral	6	11	0	0	1,083	0.00%
	Total		15	25	0	2	2,406	0.08%
Creed III	T-0	Jax	5	33	184	473	5,052	9.36%
		Phx	7	28	127	402	3,818	10.53%
		Ral	8	34	108	417	3,665	11.38%
	Total		20	95	419	1,292	12,535	10.31%
Demon Slayer 2	T-1	Jax	5	25	125	655	3,324	19.71%
(OD)		Phx	5	31	85	744	4,957	15.01%
		Ral	7	31	98	783	3,372	23.22%
	Total		17	87	308	2,182	11,653	18.72%
John Wick 4	T-21	Jax	6	42	75	113	7,238	1.56%
		Phx	5	25	99	136	5,468	2.49%
		Ral	7	33	58	101	4,451	2.27%
	Total		18	100	232	350	17,157	2.04%
Op Fortune	T-0	Jax	5	8	4	6	853	0.70%
		Phx	7	12	6	27	967	2.79%
		Ral	7	13	4	21	854	2.46%
	Total		19	33	14	54	2,674	2.02%
Scream VI	T-7	Jax	5	31	13	233	4,222	5.52%
		Phx	6	24	24	390	4,824	8.08%
		Ral	8	33	3	213	4,211	5.06%
	Total		19	88	40	836	13,257	6.31%
Shazam 2	T-14	Jax	5	56	10	127	9,734	1.30%
		Phx	6	29	2	129	6,134	2.10%
		Ral	8	53	14	148	7,666	1.93%
	Total		19	138	26	404	23,534	1.72%

 

Creed III T-0 comps

 - Elvis - 1.121x (3.586m)

 - No Time to Die - .574x (2.99m)

 - Dune - .584x (2.98m)

 - F9 - .423x (3m)

 - Death on the Nile - 3.822x (4.2m)

 - Bullet Train - 1.238x (4.15m)

 - Free Guy - 2.26x (4.96m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.02x (4.18m)

 

Still a pretty big range here.  I'm leaning more towards the high end and think it could finish close to 4m for Thursday.  Conservatively, I'll go with 5.5m total previews but I wouldn't be shocked if it gets to 6m.

 

Operation Fortune T-0 comps

 - Plane - .309x (193k)

 - Ambulance - .32x (224k)

 - Bones & All - .568x (196k)

 

Let's go with 200k

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-1 comps

 - MHA (OD) - 1.632x (4.71m)

 - JJK 0 - 1.454x (4.19m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.503x (6.47m)

 - Slime - 18.65x (4.66m)

 - One Piece - 2.871x (4.87m)

 

3-day pace is well ahead of the three similar comps (at +35% while the others are all at +27.5%) so we could get close to 5m if that keeps up today.

 

Scream VI T-7 comps

 - Nope - 1.589x (10.17m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.81x (11.33m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.111x (8.66m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.449x (6.01m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.935x (9.39m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.858x (10.03m)

 

65 T-7 comps

 - Beast - 1.11x (1.03m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 1.25x (938k)

 - Missing - 2.083x (1.58m)

 - Old - 1.389x (2.08m)

 

Shazam 2 T-14 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.259x (6.27m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .854x (5.12m)

 - No Time to Die - 1.05x (5.46m)

 - F9 - .709x (5.03m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.18x (4.92m)

 - Shang-Chi - .635x (5.59m)

 

John Wick 4 T-21 comps

 - Batman - .223x (3.93m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.5x (10.25m)

 - F9 - 1.287x (9.14m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.264x

 - Nope - 1.477x (9.45m)

 

Just throwing in a few things since options are limited.  Will adjust as we get closer

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, dxmatrixdt said:

any comparisons with John Wick to The Matrix Resurrections just for the first day of sales?

 

I've got Matrix at T-15 with 655 tickets in my areas (I think that was first day).  John Wick is at 350.  Keep in mind though that Matrix was OD Wednesday sales for Christmas week.

[Hiccup23]

March Previews for Theaters in my area (Madison, WI)

 

Film	Total Sold	Total Seats	Percent Sold	# of Showings
Creed III	77	1,904	4.0%	10
Operation Fortune	9	714	1.3%	6
Scream VI	105	1,859	5.6%	7
65	0	714	0.0%	6
Champions	1	238	0.4%	2
Shazam! Fury of the Gods	19	1,740	1.1%	6

[Boxofficerules]

7 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

March Previews for Theaters in my area (Madison, WI)

 

Film	Total Sold	Total Seats	Percent Sold	# of Showings
Creed III	77	1,904	4.0%	10
Operation Fortune	9	714	1.3%	6
Scream VI	105	1,859	5.6%	7
65	0	714	0.0%	6
Champions	1	238	0.4%	2
Shazam! Fury of the Gods	19	1,740	1.1%	6

Ouch @65

[filmlover]

I don't see 65 opening any higher than Moonfall did tbh.

[Hiccup23]

7 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Ouch @65

 

Yeah it is rough. Also Scream got screwed over with showtimes. No showtimes in the 7pm or 8pm timeframe. 🙃 I think more showtimes will get added though. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Creed III	PLF	15	681	681	3,716	18.33%	$16.57	$11,280.95
		Standard	34	372	372	3,743	9.94%	$12.69	$4,721.04
	Total		49	1,053	1,053	7,459	14.12%	$15.20	$16,001.99

Didn't pull EA shows so I'm not sure how much affect those had (if any).

 

T-0 comps

 - Bullet Train - 2.284x (7.65m)

 - FB3 - .523x (3.14m)

 - TG2 - .206x (3.03m)

 - Crawdads - 2.049x (4.1m)

 

Pretty big range, so I'll play it safe and go with 3.5m Thursday for Santikos.  

[Borja9198]

https://deadline.com/2023/03/john-wick-chapter-4-box-office-keanu-reeves-1235276778/

[Dragoncaine]

Early aud scores for Creed III are 97% from <50 verified, 91% from 100+ unverified

[dxmatrixdt]

i am seeing zero tickets sold for the new Children of the Corn on Thursday (today) and Friday with two night showings per theater.   

Edited March 2, 2023 by dxmatrixdt