The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, dudalb said:

Looking ahead to June.

Outside events can impact movie box office; and if the US Default happens, and exonomic chaos ensues, people will just not be in the mood to spend any more then necessary, with entertainment taking a huge hit.

 

Movies do well during economic downturns cause they are cheaper then most other out of home entertainment 

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

Per Reddit, it looks like Spiderverse tickets go on sale Monday. 

 

This is accurate. Spider-Verse 2 tix this Monday, May 8.

[Mojoguy]

8 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Looking ahead to June.

Outside events can impact movie box office; and if the US Default happens, and exonomic chaos ensues, people will just not be in the mood to spend any more then necessary, with entertainment taking a huge hit.

 

Don't worry, they will raise the debt ceiling.

 

I'll be political suicide if they let the US default. 

[Mojoguy]

GOTG3 OW being lower than GOTG2 $146m OW should be considered a huge let down since 3 has finale factor and inflation going on for it over 2.

 

Don't let them fool you thinking that $124m is good.

[ThomasNicole]

Reception for Guardians seems astonishing everywhere it opened, if the same happens in US maybe there´s some hope for unusual good legs 

 

But yeah really sad how we ended up watching an A List movie probably opening so low 

[ChipDerby]

For me personally I would be disappointed with anything under $110 mil. I'm expecting something in the $120s. I would be pleased with anything over $130 mil.

 

But I'm very curious how it fares over the weekend multiplier-wise, and how WOM is overall. Could it get a 2.65+ multiplier and match GOTG2's legs? For sure. With a $120 mil OW, that puts it at $318 mil total which would be really good.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

887

4344

20.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

749

3222

23.25%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4509	445	34794	12.96%	14	226

 

AMCs sold	2847
Cinemarks sold	768
Regals sold	353
Harkins sold	541

 

0.853x Ant-Man T-2 (14.94M)

0.662x Black Panther WF T-2 (18.53M)

0.568x Thor L&T T-2 (16.47M)

0.380x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (13.67M)

0.721x Batman T-2 (15.58M)

1.81x Eternals T-2 (17.19M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1001

4344

23.04%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

795

3222

24.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5149	640	35179	14.64%	14	230

 

AMCs sold	3198
Cinemarks sold	852
Regals sold	474
Harkins sold	625

 

0.902x Ant-Man 3 T-1 (15.78M)

0.697x Black Panther WF T-1 (19.51M)

0.569x Thor L&T T-1 (16.49M)

0.402x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (14.47M)

0.734x Batman T-1 (15.87M)

1.80x Eternals T-1 (17.10M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse

 

T-2 Thursday(340 showings): 15369(+1659)/43846 ATP: $15.55

0.948x Ant-Man 3 T-2 (16.59M)

0.715x Black Panther WF T-2 (20.01M)

0.808x Thor L&T T-2 (23.43M)

0.598x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (21.53M)

0.961x Batman T-2 Thurs only (16.91M)

 

T-3 Friday(547 showings): 15541(+2140)/69389 ATP: $15.36

0.945x Ant-Man 3 T-3 (27.33M)

0.566x Black Panther WF T-3 (31.88M)

0.899x Thor L&T T-3 (36.44M)

0.601x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (32.88M)

0.833x Batman T-3 (29.15M)

 

T-4 Saturday(579 showings): 17152(+2211)/72661 ATP: $14.77

1.06x Ant-Man 3 T-4 (35.78M)

0.692x Black Panther WF T-4 (38.84M)

1.05x Thor L&T T-4 (44.19M)

0.625x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (36.17M)

0.876x Batman T-4 (37.91M)

 

T-5 Sunday(509 showings): 10021(+1240)/64156 ATP: $14.43

1.18x Ant-Man T-5 (30.34M)

0.666x Black Panther WF T-5 (27.27M)

0.988x Thor L&T T-5 (32.10M)

0.631x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (24.54M)

0.975x Batman T-5 (33.30M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday(346 showings): 17212(+1843)/44331 ATP: $15.50

0.965x Ant-Man 3 T-1 (16.88M)

0.738x Black Panther WF T-1 (20.66M)

0.787x Thor L&T T-1 (22.81M)

0.616x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (22.17M)

0.954x Batman T-1 Thurs only (16.79M)

 

T-2 Friday(547 showings): 17894(+2353)/69389 ATP: $15.30

0.969x Ant-Man 3 T-2 (28.05M)

0.586x Black Panther WF T-2 (32.99M)

0.877x Thor L&T T-2 (35.58M)

0.615x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (33.63M)

0.819x Batman T-2 (28.66M)

 

T-3 Saturday(579 showings): 19699(+2547)/72661 ATP: $14.72

1.08x Ant-Man 3 T-3 (36.66M)

0.730x Black Panther WF T-3 (41.00M)

1.04x Thor L&T T-3 (43.61M)

0.650x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (37.60M)

0.857x Batman T-3 (37.09M)

 

T-4 Sunday(509 showings): 11538(+1517)/64156 ATP: $14.43

1.20x Ant-Man T-4 (30.82M)

0.709x Black Panther WF T-4 (29.03M)

0.997x Thor L&T T-4 (32.40M)

0.649x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (25.23M)

0.953x Batman T-4 (32.52M)

[ChipDerby]

I'm really thinking an $18 mil preview, with a 6.75 multiplier for just over $120 mil OW.

[TheFlatLannister]

GOTG very disappointing final push in Orlando

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

Don't worry, they will raise the debt ceiling.

 

I'll be political suicide if they let the US default. 

That is assuming the leadership in the US House of Representives is rational. That is one hell of a big assumption.

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Reception for Guardians seems astonishing everywhere it opened, if the same happens in US maybe there´s some hope for unusual good legs 

 

But yeah really sad how we ended up watching an A List movie probably opening so low 

Times change.

We have to getused to lower numbers for most movies.

Streaming has taken a huge bite in theater attendence and it's  permanent.

I have no doubt these same kind of discussions would have happened if the internet had existed when TV took away nearly half the theatrical audience circa 1950.

[JayPrimetown]

T -1 Ticket Sales - Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 4, 2023)
Theater Name		Tickets Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ		1055	6073	17.37%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL		570	3325	17.14%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA		752	1791	41.99%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA		515	2545	20.24%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL		541	3893	13.90%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX		280	2307	12.14%
Total Sold		3713	19934	18.63%

 

 

No real comparison point for me yet as my first "blockbuster" tracking Thursday Preview Night. 

[tonytr87]

51 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Times change.

We have to getused to lower numbers for most movies.

Streaming has taken a huge bite in theater attendence and it's  permanent.

I have no doubt these same kind of discussions would have happened if the internet had existed when TV took away nearly half the theatrical audience circa 1950.

 

If this opens lower it has nothing to do with streaming. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
244	8673	41299	21.0%

^{*Numbers taken as of 9:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

584

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

1

ATP - $14.67

 

Good news, lots of new showings added.

Sticking with the $19M THUR $120M-125M OW (I'm optimistic)

@Menor Reborn Maybe a 10k finish, probably falls short of Mario's 12k 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
252	9376	42141	22.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

703

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

ATP - $14.59

 

I was expecting well north of 1k tickets sold today but oh well. Going to pull back my prediction to $18M-$19M THUR ; $115M-$120M OW 

 

Note: Mario sold 1820 seats from T-2 to T-1 

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[von Kenni]

2 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

For me personally I would be disappointed with anything under $110 mil. I'm expecting something in the $120s. I would be pleased with anything over $130 mil.

 

But I'm very curious how it fares over the weekend multiplier-wise, and how WOM is overall. Could it get a 2.65+ multiplier and match GOTG2's legs? For sure. With a $120 mil OW, that puts it at $318 mil total which would be really good.

I'm not sure what makes $318 mil really good if the movie cost $250 mil and with that DOM number the WW can barely reach $750 mil, I.e. even breakeven is threatened and surpassing that isn't really good. $1B+ would be really good IMHO.

 

[filmlover]

It's easy to forget now but Guardians 1 wildly overperformed expectations compared to pre-release when it came out, especially when you look back at how relatively uneventful Summer '14 ended up being (the two biggest movies of the first seven months that year were pre-May releases). Pretty sure even Disney/Marvel were caught by surprise by how a big phenomenon it ended up being, to the point where it seemed like the sequel would explode to astronomical levels.

 

Which it did and didn't. Obviously 2 grew in opening but hardly a Shrek 2-style explosion and indicated that the franchise might have reached its ceiling. Add in the fact 2 wasn't nearly as well received as 1 (and it's been six years since that movie - and 4 since the last time these characters made a proper appearance between Infinity War/Endgame) and it's not really a surprise that the franchise is starting to somewhat come back down to Earth.

[GOGODanca]

Let's wait to see how the audience reception is before we gloom this movie to disappointing numbers, as we saw with top gun, a great movie can make it all up

[Flamengo81]

25 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

I'm not sure what makes $318 mil really good if the movie cost $250 mil and with that DOM number the WW can barely reach $750 mil, I.e. even breakeven is threatened and surpassing that isn't really good. $1B+ would be really good IMHO.

 

With a 318M domestic the worldwide would be closer to 700M than 750M.

[Eric Burnett]

On 5/2/2023 at 10:37 PM, I Am Eric said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	225	5799	40176	14.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 512

 

Comp - T-2

1.353x of Black Widow (17.85M)

2.207x of Shang-Chi (19.43M)

1.849x of Eternals (17.57M)

0.373x of Doctor Strange 2 (13.43M)

0.628x of Thor 4 (18.22M)

0.500x of Black Panther 2 (14M)

0.896x of Ant-Man 3 (15.68M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	225	6598	40176	16.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 799

 

Comp - T-1

1.283x of Black Widow (16.94M)

2.037x of Shang-Chi (17.93M)

1.806x of Eternals (17.16M)

0.381x of Doctor Strange 2 (13.71M)

0.619x of Thor 4 (17.97M)

0.504x of Black Panther 2 (14.11M)

0.906x of Ant-Man 3 (15.86M)