The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

I don't really understand the confusion here, though I guess the way I use comps is different than others do. 

[Mickiland16]

What kind of first day and pre-sales run are you guys expecting for Across the Spider-Verse? On one side it's pure animation but ITS demo showed a families/non families ratio closer to a superhero movie rather than a family film where even the Disney remakes and Pixar sequels skewed more families. 

[Mulder]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nah. By the time the release day comes we will be able to predict within few %. Its no rocket science once you have done this for a while and we track so much data now that its impossible to miss. 

Forget the exact movie but there was something back in March which tracking here was off on by a few million and it had circumstances similar to Little Mermaid.

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said:

What kind of first day and pre-sales run are you guys expecting for Across the Spider-Verse? On one side it's pure animation but ITS demo showed a families/non families ratio closer to a superhero movie rather than a family film where even the Disney remakes and Pixar sequels skewed more families. 

 

I think some percentage* of TLM might be the right ballpark, actually.  Shame we won't know its preview number until deep into AtSV's run, but that's my initial expectations.

* NOTE:  150 percent of TLM still qualifies, in my book.

 

But for right now I'll be looking at how AtSV does against TLM as my main benchmark as opposed to CBMs.  Various action-adventure flicks like JWD might work as well.  Shame that JWD had such an abnormally long pre-sale window as otherwise it'd be a great comp for a lot of similar demo films.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Forget the exact movie but there was something back in March which tracking here was off on by a few million and it had circumstances similar to Little Mermaid.

I dont think we missed any movie. We aced Creed, Scream, Shazam, John Wick 4 and Dungeons. Some of the movies previews were hard bcos of early shows and that are more difficult to project as they are not as wide as previews. 

 

As I said we track almost half of entire data(I am taking out MTC2 as its not working again and did fail for some time previously). Its hard to miss any breakout or bomb with it. 

 

MTC1 itself is a simple formula by absolute number. I dont even have to do major adjustment unless its something like shazam which bombed in most smaller chains/cities. I still predicted 3.5m with MTC1 and that was within 0.1m of actual. 

[charlie Jatinder]

I mean Spider Verse will obviously do 17M like every other big film did in last 6 months  😉

Edited May 8, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

I mean Spider Verse will obviously do 17M like every other big film did in last 6 months 

 

17.5 is the new 14.5. 

[Mickiland16]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I think some percentage* of TLM might be the right ballpark, actually.  Shame we won't know its preview number until deep into AtSV's run, but that's my initial expectations.

* NOTE:  150 percent of TLM still qualifies, in my book.

 

But for right now I'll be looking at how AtSV does against TLM as my main benchmark as opposed to CBMs.  Various action-adventure flicks like JWD might work as well.  Shame that JWD had such an abnormally long pre-sale window as otherwise it'd be a great comp for a lot of similar demo films.

Could AtSV be used as a comp with Transformers last week of pre-sales? Demographic breakdown for Bumblebee was similar to ITS except that BB skewed way more female. 

[keysersoze123]

After the absolute shocker of Day 1 presales that Guardians had, I would not assume anything is granted for any movie. i still remember below post from myself and responses. Nothing happened as anyone expected. 

 

  

On 4/1/2023 at 3:43 PM, keysersoze123 said:

So it begins. what is the 1st day target for Vol 03 at MTC1. 

1) Antman - ~88.5k

2) Wakanda - 110K

3) Thor 4 - 136.5

 

We never captured DS2 as it was impossible to get the data if I am not wrong. Based on how things went for other movies I would say 250K+. NWH was even more insane. Probably in 400K region !!!

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

After the absolute shocker of Day 1 presales that Guardians had, I would not assume anything is granted for any movie. i still remember below post from myself and responses. Nothing happened as anyone expected. 

I think Day 1 sales for GoTG turned out pretty accurate. I remember my initial range was 17-20, reviews weren’t all that great to really push it in the end, but it ended up around 18.

 

This is one of the few films I hadn’t had to change my forecast even once from Day 1 of sales.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

I think Day 1 sales for GoTG turned out pretty accurate. I remember my initial range was 17-20, reviews weren’t all that great to really push it in the end, but it ended up around 18.

 

This is one of the few films I hadn’t had to change my forecast even once from Day 1 of sales.

You predicted Guardians to have less than 70% of presales of Ant 3 before the presales started !!! I dont see any post in that regard if you look at couple of pages after my above post. I remeber @AMC Theaters Enjoyer saying beating the last one should be target and XXR said minimum 170 and ideally 185 should be the target. My expectation before presales was 160m OW. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Mickiland16 said:

Could AtSV be used as a comp with Transformers last week of pre-sales? Demographic breakdown for Bumblebee was similar to ITS except that BB skewed way more female. 

 

You mean the upcoming Transformers flick?  I mean, maybe.   But kiiiinda think another recent film that had a word starting with "S" in the title is gonna be the comp for the brave souls that track it (i.e. probably not me).

 

(and I don't mean Scream VI, either )

 

====

 

Okay, all jokes aside I don't like being a hater; it really isn't my style.  But gotta say, I don't got great feelings about Rise of the Beasts.   Maybe the Shazam 2 crack was uncalled for, but then again Bumblebee did only have 2.85m in previews back in 2018.  So probably the low-to-mid range action-adventure films of the last year plus might be better comps for it.

 

Or maybe it'll surprise and relatively break out.  Stranger things have happened, after all.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

You predicted Guardians to have less than 70% of presales of Ant 3 before the presales started !!! I dont see any post in that regard if you look at couple of pages after my above post. I remeber @AMC Theaters Enjoyer saying beating the last one should be target and XXR said minimum 170 and ideally 185 should be the target. My expectation before presales was 160m OW. 

Oh you mean before pre-sales expectations?

 

I thought it was regarding reading Day 1 presales. I was actually expecting GoTG to start lower than Ant Man, so it wasn’t surprising. Not sure if I said that here, def said on Telegram group.

[keysersoze123]

On 5/6/2023 at 7:45 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 8634/35113 189060.70 154 shows

Previews - 26569/907323 470856.75 5526 shows

 

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 9277/35113 202836.99 154 shows

Previews(T-18) - 28579/908358 505434.25 5533 shows 

 

Previous run was Friday late afternoon and this is just now. So its 2 days and few hours of data. 

[Legion Again]

32 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I mean Spider Verse will obviously do 17M like every other big film did in last 6 months  😉

Great news for TLM  

Edited May 8, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[ThomasNicole]

Reminder, tomorrow night is TLM premiere and reactions will be out right after 

 

Could make some impact on TUE sales (or even partially tomorrow).

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	26545	27713	1168	4.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

69

 

T-12 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	143.84		32	812		0/135	20447/21259	3.82%		3737	31.26%		8.92m
Bats	26.92		99	4338		0/285	31126/35464	12.23%		11757	9.93%		5.82m
TG:M	25.32		297	4613		0/259	31320/35933	12.84%		11474	10.18%		5.00m
JWD	41.54		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		10966	10.65%		7.48m
BA	113.40		55	1030		0/146	21037/22067	4.67%		4494	25.99%		8.62m
Wick 4	90.97		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	21.44%		8.10m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	110.19		38	1021		0/79	11394/12415	8.22%		4407	26.50%		8.98m
Fast X (adj)			63	1125		0/160	23225/24350	4.62%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     189/10118  [1.87% sold]
Matinee:    44/3517  [1.25% | 3.77% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	26494	27710	1216	4.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

48

 

T-11 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	138.81		64	876		0/134	20340/21216	4.13%		3737	32.54%		8.61m
Bats	27.22		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		11757	10.34%		5.88m
TG:M	25.08		235	4848		0/259	31085/35933	13.49%		11474	10.60%		4.96m
JWD	40.61		182	2994		0/191	22380/25374	11.80%		10966	11.09%		7.31m
BA	113.22		44	1074		0/146	20993/22067	4.87%		4494	27.06%		8.60m
Wick 4	91.22		49	1333		0/95	12458/13791	9.67%		5448	22.32%		8.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-11 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	108.61		59	1080		0/79	11335/12415	8.70%		4407	27.59%		8.85m
Fast X (adj)			48	1173		0/160	23174/24347	4.82%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     197/10115  [1.95% sold]
Matinee:    47/3516  [1.34% | 3.87% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	21474	22579	1105	4.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

73

 

T-19 Comps:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	325.00		8	340		0/74	11108/11448	2.97%		3951	27.97%		20.31m
JWD	53.46		86	2067		0/184	22740/24807	8.33%		10966	10.08%		9.62m
BA	200.91		48	550		0/146	21513/22063	2.49%		4494	24.59%		15.27m
Wick 4	143.13		47	772		0/86	12192/12964	5.95%		5448	20.28%		12.74m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        151/5716  [2.64% sold]
Matinee:       24/621  [3.86% | 2.17% of all tickets sold]
3D:            175/4329  [4.04% | 15.84% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.69983x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-19 [13.68m]    
TLM = 0.79381x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-19 [10.95m]    
TLM = 0.52478x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-19 [13.88m]   

 

===============

 

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	21416	22576	1160	5.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

55

 

T-18 Comps:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	310.16		34	374		0/74	11074/11448	3.27%		3951	29.36%		19.39m
JWD	53.55		99	2166		0/184	22643/24809	8.73%		10966	10.58%		9.64m
BA	192.37		53	603		0/146	21460/22063	2.73%		4494	25.81%		14.62m
Wick 4	132.42		104	876		0/88	12454/13330	6.57%		5448	21.29%		11.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         154/5713  [2.70% sold]
Matinee:        24/621  [3.86% | 2.07% of all tickets sold]
3D:            178/4329  [4.11% | 15.34% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.69256x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-18 [13.63m]    
TLM = 0.78891x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-18 [10.89m]    
TLM = 0.51822x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-18 [13.71m]   

[M37]

8 hours ago, Mulder said:

Just pre-emptively, I think we should also assume that Little Mermaid will be one of the rare times the tracking here will be off by a bit. Lower or higher by a few million.

No, don’t agree - tracking will get there, at least for the Thursday number (IM & OW, we’ll see). It’s just going to have more uncertainty, a wider range deeper into the sales run than usual, by should converge by the end. 
 

By T-7, GOTG3 had settled into a $15-$17M range, with $14-15 or $17-$18 possible with an atypically weak or strong finishing kick (and we got the latter). Won’t be surprised if LM is still plausibly something like $8-$15M at that same checkpoint, but by T-4 the final trajectory should mostly come into focus and the range will narrow down quickly 

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I mean Spider Verse will obviously do 17M like every other big film did in last 6 months  😉

 

2pm previews, not 3pm previews, so it might tack on an extra $1M or $2M:)...