The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Jonwo]

10 minutes ago, YM! said:

Tbh it may be better to partially concede than taking a blow. Studios are already lining in their spots anyway.

But do we really want to see Disney put Pixar in undesirable slots? Other studios are flexible but I think they'd still want summer slots for Pixar and November/Thanksgiving for WDAS.

[JWR]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Honestly, the schedule isn't that crazy over the next month after it comes out. Indiana Jones and Mission: Impossible are the only things resembling blockbusters while everything else (Asteroid City, No Hard Feelings, Insidious, Joy Ride) will obviously be limited in how wide their appeal will be. I guess there's Ruby Gillman for direct competition, but that screams "nonstarter."

 

In hindsight, I think Universal releasing Mario in April instead of June or July was the best case scenario Disney could have hoped for.

[AniNate]

If Elemental does bomb I imagine Disney will be forced to be more flexible. I think it might be a good idea to move Elio back or forward as it is but it's a certainty if that happens

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I do think that expecting Disney to move their animated films from their prime spots is unrealistic. You're not going to have a Pixar film debut in January or September for example. 

 

Exactly, the last thing we want is the narrative that Pixar and to an extent WDAS are damaged goods. You only have to how Ratatouille did in 2007 where it ended up doing $200m domestic despite a low OW. 

Not necessarily January or September (though I think if the brand is big enough it can open anywhere) but like Elio going to February or April isn't going to hurt Disney or Pixar or make them lesser. It helps more than hurts. 

 

Ratatouille is a good example but the OW was just shy of 50m with the fourth of July weekend the next week. I don't think Elemental will have a similar OW judging on what we know so far. But if reviews are indeed stellar as this is the first time Pixar has done the Cannes outside of a Docter movie indicating their faith in quality. Do think the showtime issue will somewhat correct itself as we get closer to OW.

Edited May 16, 2023 by YM!

[YM!]

21 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

But do we really want to see Disney put Pixar in undesirable slots? Other studios are flexible but I think they'd still want summer slots for Pixar and November/Thanksgiving for WDAS.

Switch it up every now and then. I think the tentpole every three weeks Disney wants isn't helpful to Pixar in the long term as it builds itself back up. A Pixar movie could debut Memorial Day weekend or the weekend after for instance and the remake could go anywhere and still be big. Maybe open a Marvel movie on the first weekend of November than Veterans Day to allow better sync. Elemental could've gone to June 23rd, swapped spots with Indy and Indy opens in late July, or July 28th. The concern is what happens if the bounce back is more like Disney in the 2000s/Dreamworks in the 2010s than something that can be fixed in 2-3 years. Studios have already lost the fear to counter program.

 

I'm still feeling 30-45m OW on gut feeling, with 40m being about right but it's important Elemental does well.

Edited May 16, 2023 by YM!

[TwoMisfits]

56 minutes ago, M37 said:

Disney has staked a claim to that mid-June Father's Day weekend for years, if not opening than for the second weekend, just like they have for MCU on first weekend in May or an animated movie for Thanksgiving. Only now Pixar (thanks to several straight to D+ releases) have lost their mojo, and others studios are not longer afraid to program against them, and Elemental is going to get washed over by Mermaid and Spider-Verse.

 

Fwiw, I also think it was a bit of a mistake for Sony to squeeze Spider-Verse into the June 2nd date rather than June 23rd, when there's so much more breathing room with only Indy and MI7, both of which should skew older. (I'm not even counting Ruby Gillman)

 

Nah, I really like Spiderverse's date.  Almost all schools are out that weekend, there will be few holdovers (my Cinemarks have almost cleared all April product except Mario), and Transformers looks like a nonissue.  And it will be around for Father's Day sales, Juneteenth sales, July 4th sales, and every possible summer weekday for all schools.  

 

If Transformers or Elemental had both been bigger in buzz (and didn't have baggage), I'd worry...but for now, they are not, so this is a dream June for Spidey...

Edited May 16, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[JWR]

Spider-Verse is the least likely to be affected. It's the only release in June that I feel is a lock.

[AniNate]

Yeah I think Spider's date is fine. On paper it's the titan of the month and I'm pretty sure there's way less overlap with Little Mermaid than Indy 5.

[Eric Prime]

29 minutes ago, AniNate said:

It's a moot point if Elemental is just mid, but Pixar's financial track record when they do make Oscar-worthy films remains unscathed, and I do think in optimal circumstances Elemental could end up being the movie that hurts everyone else, not the other way around.

Problem is that those movies came out at a time when audiences were willing to watch more than just nostalgic toy commercials. And we sadly don't live in that era anymore. So if a Toy Story spin-off can't even hit 120M, what chance would a totally original film have? Would love to be proven wrong of course and the night is still very much young.

[AniNate]

 

8 minutes ago, Eric Toretto said:

Problem is that those movies came out at a time when audiences were willing to watch more than just nostalgic toy commercials. And we sadly don't live in that era anymore. So if a Toy Story spin-off can't even hit 120M, what chance would a totally original film have? Would love to be proven wrong of course and the night is still very much young.

 

Coco wasn't that long ago. I have to believe when they put out something legit people will still show up for it.

Edited May 16, 2023 by AniNate

[JWR]

2 minutes ago, Eric Toretto said:

Problem is that those movies came out at a time when audiences were willing to watch more than just nostalgic toy commercials. And we sadly don't live in that era anymore. So if a Toy Story spin-off can't even hit 120M, what chance would a totally original film have? Would love to be proven wrong of course and the night is still very much young.

 

In hindsight, some of the projections for Lightyear were beyond unfeasible. That movie has a lot of baggage that seems obvious now. It didn't help that it had very little connection it had to Toy Story was confusing in the marketing campaign as to what it actually was. 

 

Not that it makes your point any less salient, though.

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Coco wasn't that long ago. 

 

2017 was six years ago, a lot has happened since then

[keysersoze123]

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 8244/35667 161380.90 179 shows

Previews - 16040/617579 294992.06 3293 shows

 

At least its not pulling a shazam. If I have to guess its going for ~ 5m previews including fan shows and about 35m OW. 

 

Shazam around similar point(not day of day)

 

On 2/26/2023 at 8:05 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Shazam MTC1 previews - 14756/472123 274199.10 2286 shows. 

 

Not great but let us see how reactions go. If final week looks all negative it will pull in a Suicide Squad, but if reactions are good I think 5-6m previews can happen. 

 

[JWR]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 8244/35667 161380.90 179 shows

Previews - 16040/617579 294992.06 3293 shows

 

At least its not pulling a shazam. If I have to guess its going for ~ 5m previews including fan shows and about 35m OW. 

 

Shazam around similar point(not day of day)

 

 

 

That's damning with faint praise 😅

[AniNate]

The narrative the last few years has been everything was doomed until it wasn't. Pixar still hasn't gotten a chance yet to present a high tier movie in theaters since Covid. If Elemental does in fact prove they don't have brandpower anymore so be it but I'll hold out hope until proven wrong.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, JWR said:

 

That's damning with faint praise 😅

Expectations are very low and for the right reasons. 

[Jonwo]

6 minutes ago, Eric Toretto said:

Problem is that those movies came out at a time when audiences were willing to watch more than just nostalgic toy commercials. And we sadly don't live in that era anymore. So if a Toy Story spin-off can't even hit 120M, what chance would a totally original film have? Would love to be proven wrong of course and the night is still very much young.

We need to get out of this mindset that original animated films are doomed to fail because it's not actually a good thing if Pixar was reduced to just making sequels or cut down to the point that it's not the same studio. 

 

I think the fact that it's debuting at Cannes is a sign that the quality is there for Elemental. 

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

We need to get out of this mindset that original animated films are doomed to fail because it's not actually a good thing if Pixar was reduced to just making sequels or cut down to the point that it's not the same studio. 

I agree that it would be bad if Pixar just made sequels. But it's been clear for a while that audiences are less and less demanding than ever before when it comes to originality and what's successful has been the least diverse it has ever been. And well, if the market doesn't want original movies, then that's what is going to happen. We can't change any of this sadly.

[AniNate]

At least give their movies a chance to fail before making the assumption they're destined for it

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, Eric Toretto said:

I agree that it would be bad if Pixar just made sequels. But it's been clear for a while that audiences are less and less demanding than ever before when it comes to originality and what's successful has been the least diverse it has ever been. And well, if the market doesn't want original movies, then that's what is going to happen. We can't change any of this sadly.

We'll have to see if that true with Migration which is Illumination's first original film in seven years and Wish which is an original musical from WDAS. 

 

Whatever happens to Elemental won't really impact Pixar in the short term because Bob Iger knows how important and valuable it is to Disney and we've seen with WDAS that they weathered the tough times and come back stronger so if Elemental doesn't quite do it then something down the line will be the comeback for Pixar.