The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse T-16: 49.48% Awareness

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts T-23: 49.66%

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-44: 45.41%

Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken T-44: 17.52%

Five Nights at Freddy's T-163: 26.86%

The Marvels T-177: 38.45%

 

Fast X T-2: 58% Awareness

Final Awareness: 53% chance of 40M, 40% chance of 50M, 27% chance of 60M, 20% chance of 90M, 13% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 50% chance of 50M

 

Kandahar T-9: 22.02% Awareness

Final Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

 

Elemental T-30: 32.6% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M, 42% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M

Animation/Family Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

 

The Flash T-30: 53.43% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 91% chance of 50M, 73% chance of 70M, 45% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

 

[vafrow]

Elemental tickets now available in Cineplex theatres in Canada. We'll, starting to. It's not up everywhere yet.

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-29 *First 24 hours

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
82	346	12052	2.9%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP: $12.80

 

 

COMPS

First 24 hours

 

Little Mermaid

(0.228x)

 

 

Across the Spider-verse

(0.152x) 

 

 

Mario

(0.110x)

 

[misterpepp]

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny tix on sale May 22.

[TheFlatLannister]

10 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny tix on sale May 22.

tracking five movies is gonna be rough. Yeah, Elemental is getting dropped

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Flamengo81 said:

Did F9 underindexed in Sacramento?

 

Impossible to say, really, given it was two months or so into theaters reopening nationwide.

[Mickiland16]

15 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-29 *First 24 hours

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
82	346	12052	2.9%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP: $12.80

 

 

COMPS

First 24 hours

 

Little Mermaid

(0.228x)

 

 

Across the Spider-verse

(0.152x) 

 

 

Mario

(0.110x)

 

So depending on how Mermaid performs 2.5M and maybe 3M previews in the cards? This one should be more walk-up heavy since it's an original. 

[JWR]

Just now, Mickiland16 said:

So depending on how Mermaid performs 2.5M and maybe 3M previews in the cards? This one should be more walk-up heavy since it's an original. 

 

Like most originals and animated family films? Although even that might be optimistic...

Edited May 17, 2023 by JWR

[GOGODanca]

6 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said:

So depending on how Mermaid performs 2.5M and maybe 3M previews in the cards? This one should be more walk-up heavy since it's an original. 

Wouldn't Elementals like all disney movies overindex in the orlando region?

[keysersoze123]

Elemental MTC1

Previews - 2501/299226 37592.77 2050 shows

Friday - 2360/470903 32589.36 3102 shows

 

80% of the tickets were sold early yesterday. I will check again in an week but this is one of the bombs next month. 

 

less than 1/6th of Mermaid if you want comps. 

[TheFlatLannister]

27 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Wouldn't Elementals like all disney movies overindex in the orlando region?

Yes. AMC Disney Springs inflates Disney movies' numbers by a bit 

[Mojoguy]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Elemental MTC1

Previews - 2501/299226 37592.77 2050 shows

Friday - 2360/470903 32589.36 3102 shows

 

80% of the tickets were sold early yesterday. I will check again in an week but this is one of the bombs next month. 

 

less than 1/6th of Mermaid if you want comps. 

Yikes! Disney should have really moved Elemental forward a week instead of staying against the Flash. Their refusal to delay the release is really going to cost them.

 

This movie is going to have to depend entirely on legs and WOM at this point.

[cookie]

1 hour ago, datpepper said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny tix on sale May 22.

Any chance this overindexes if word from Cannes is good? I imagine a lot of the trades will have reviews up by the time tickets go on sale.

Edited May 17, 2023 by cookie

[keysersoze123]

Dont forget we have spiderverse which is also an animation movie targeted at families. That is taking away all the hype away anyway apart from what ever issues Disney/Pixar animation have due to D+ in COVID era. I dont see either Elemental or Wish breaking that pattern. IO2 should hopefully be return of form though I am concerned Docter is not at helm. 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, datpepper said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny tix on sale May 22.

We could have both this Flash start ticket sales next week. Should be interesting. 

[screambaby]

I hope indy does well. 

I see alot of people think it's time has passed or that Krystal skulls killed it but I've seen the same things said about another franchise that rose from the dead recently....

Edited May 17, 2023 by screambaby

[JWR]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dont forget we have spiderverse which is also an animation movie targeted at families. That is taking away all the hype away anyway apart from what ever issues Disney/Pixar animation have due to D+ in COVID era. I dont see either Elemental or Wish breaking that pattern. IO2 should hopefully be return of form though I am concerned Docter is not at helm. 

 

We'll see. But I won't be surprised. Better hope that Cannes screening helps the word of mouth and that it's walkup heavy.

Edited May 17, 2023 by JWR

[M37]

Fwiw, I don’t think Mermaid will be a good comp for Elemental; see no reason for it to have as much early sales/fan rush for a true animated original. Expecting it to pace much more in line with the Sonic 2/Ghostbusters range, with some brand awareness but mostly a traditional family film  

[Eric Prime]

Yeah I've been down on Elemental since day 1, nostalgic toy commercials and all that, but this isn't going to be a movie that's going to sell much right out of the gate even if Pixar was at an all time high in popularity. I know people will argue that being Pixar means it has "a brand", but this is clearly different from a traditional Pixar sequel or even a Lightyear. Think it's better to at least wait until we're a couple weeks from release.

[keysersoze123]

Pixar had strong Adult fanbase that helps with presales. That is how it used to be pre pandemic. now we are in different era. Even last year Lightyear T-3 was ahead of Minions. Obviously Lightyear was stalling out while Minions was a juggernaut.