The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-7 Wednesday	3 Showings	287	+1	321
T-8 Thursday	156 Showings	4140	+249	23074	ATP:	16.49

0.830x Avatar 2 T-8 (14.10M)

1.87x Ghostbusters T-8 (8.43M)

 

T-9 Friday

210 Showings

6134

+371

32482

ATP:

15.84

0.873x Avatar 2 T-9 (31.60M)

2.90x Ghostbusters T-9 (35.24M)

 

T-10 Saturday

218 Showings

6248

+355

33183

0.776x Avatar 2 T-10 (34.40M)

2.95x Ghostbusters T-10 (48.49M)

 

T-11 Sunday

199 Showings

4183

+294

30543

0.828x Avatar 2 T-11 (30.30M)

4.17x Ghostbusters T-11 (45.49M)

 

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

 

 

T-6 Wednesday	3 Showings	287		321
T-7 Thursday	156 Showings	4539	+399	23074	ATP:	16.41

 

0.806

Avatar 2 T-7

13.70M

 

T-8 Friday

211 Showings

6569

+435

32555

ATP:

15.75

 

0.882

Avatar 2 T-8

31.93M

 

T-9 Saturday

218 Showings

6589

+341

33119

 

0.777

Avatar 2 T-9

34.42M

 

T-10 Sunday

200 Showings

4470

+287

30616

 

0.829

Avatar 2 T-10

30.32M

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

351

3200

10.97%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

257

1875

13.71%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1520	68	24658	6.16%	13	134

 

0.486x Ant-Man 3 T-15 (8.51M)

0.823x JW Dominion T-15 (14.82M)

1.20x Eternals T-15 (11.42M)

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

327

2970

11.01%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

281

1875

14.99%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1560	40	24431	6.39%	13	125

 

0.487x Ant-Man 3 T-14 (8.52M)

1.17x Eternals T-14 (11.15M)

[Starphanluke]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 9322/35667 183096.68 179 shows

Previews - 17227/619911 318188.23 3308 shows

 

Overall number including fan shows is not bad. Pace is slightly more than 1K tickets per day if you include both days. At least this is not like other movie selling under 200 tickets per day !!! That said Transformers used to be huge fan driven in its heyday. 2nd movie almost broke midnight record set by TDK year earlier. So this number have to be taken in context. 

 

Its still ahead of JW4 at similar point thought that movie had very strong finish. Not sure this movie can pull that. 

 

Something that I'm not sure about with this movie--do we have much information on how motivated TikTok users are to buy ahead, or do walk-ups? For some reason, Transformers has a HUGE following on there, driven a lot by young people with nostalgia for the Bay movies (which is wild). 

 

I believe that's what led to those early high trailer views. But it's so difficult to know how that translates to BO.

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-15 Thursday

131 Showings

4122

+150

20419

ATP:

16.04

0.966x JW Dominion T-15 (17.38M)

0.973x Eternals T-15 (9.25M)

 

T-16 Friday

177 Showings

3410

+217

29026

ATP:

16.16

0.857x JW Dominion T-16 (35.64M)

0.963x Eternals T-16 (20.55M)

 

T-17 Saturday

170 Showings

3537

+181

28101

0.914x JW Dominion T-17 (42.86M)

0.986x Eternals T-17 (23.78M)

 

T-18 Sunday

153 Showings

1895

+143

25322

1.09x JW Dominion T-18 (42.04M)

0.918x Eternals T-18 (14.99M)

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

 

 

T-14 Thursday

133 Showings

4274

+152

20539

ATP:

16.04

 

0.975

Eternals T-14

9.26M

 

T-15 Friday

177 Showings

3589

+179

29026

ATP:

16.14

 

0.961

Eternals T-15

20.51M

 

T-16 Saturday

170 Showings

3768

+231

28101

 

0.992

Eternals T-16

23.94M

 

T-17 Sunday

153 Showings

2066

+171

25322

 

0.950

Eternals T-17

15.51M

[screambaby]

I have to laugh if you have to count on nostalgia to get an OW over 30 million when your budget is 340 million. 

 

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, screambaby said:

I have to laugh if you have to count on nostalgia to get an OW over 30 million when your budget is 340 million. 

 

Who said anything about 30?

[Mulder]

Either Rise of The Beasts bombs and all the clubs I'm in win, or it succeeds and a certain person who swore up and down RoTB is going sub-200 worldwide loses. Either way I win. 

[screambaby]

8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Who said anything about 30?

Unless I'm hallucinating again that's what it looks lkke it's tracking at in here so far. Yeah I know it's huge overseas

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Unless I'm hallucinating again that's what it looks lkke it's tracking at in here so far. Yeah I know it's huge overseas

Are you talking about FX opening to 30m. That is impossible. 

[Starphanluke]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are you talking about FX opening to 30m. That is impossible. 

Might be talking Transformers? But that budget is only $200m (still too high) I think.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Might be talking Transformers? But that budget is only $200m (still too high) I think.

Its too early to hone in on OW for Transformers. But 30m is low based on presales I have seen. Even if reviews are tepid it should do 40m+. 

[grey ghost]

With tracking 4 or 5 movies are we seeing June's cannibalism in real time?

[keysersoze123]

Mermaid MTC2 previews - 34039/457162 497497.99 2999 shows. 

 

This is between T-8 and T-7 number. Its definitely stronger than FX but weaker than Spidey as MTC1. Let us see how the final week goes. 

[screambaby]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are you talking about FX opening to 30m. That is impossible. 

Tranformers

[keysersoze123]

Just now, screambaby said:

Tranformers

Where did you get 340m budget number then. I did post what I think about Transformers. Its too early. Presales from my perspective are ok. Not as strong if it does not have final push but its no Shazam.

[screambaby]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Where did you get 340m budget number then. I did post what I think about Transformers. Its too early. Presales from my perspective are ok. Not as strong if it does not have final push but its no Shazam.

Think I got my budgets mixed up

[Starphanluke]

1 minute ago, screambaby said:

Tranformers

Budget on Transformers is around $200m. Still too high, but not the death sentence $340m would be.

[Eric the Minion]

6 hours ago, Eric Toretto said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	184	1934	32449	5.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 254

 

Comp - T-1

0.766x of F9 (5.44M)

0.465x of Jurassic World 3 (8.36M)

1.109x of Nope (7.1M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	184	3088	32449	9.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,154

 

Comp

0.681x of F9 (4.83M)

0.491x of Jurassic World 3 (8.84M)

0.978x of Nope (6.26M)

 

Yeah not a great finish. I don't think it will go low as that F9 comp, but I guess ~7M sounds legit here.

[vafrow]

Walk ups at my local have been pretty decent tonight. The day started at 76 sold and as of close of early shows at 116. The late shows should push it above 125, where John Wick 4 landed.

 

What's most impressive though is that a new theatre opened here about 25 minutes away, and probably the next closest theatre to my area. Literally opened yesterday. That likely drew away some business. 

 

I'll try and check the final totals at the end of the night.

 

 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:05pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	243	29842	33247	3405	10.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

477

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD[12:00-12:35]	110.23		303	3089		0/178	21629/24718	12.50%		3737	91.12%		6.83m
Bats [11:30-12:35]	32.50		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	28.96%		7.02m
TG:M [11:30-12:30]	32.86		707	10363		2/345	32649/43012	24.09%		11474	29.68%		6.49m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	35.88		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	31.05%		6.46m
BA [11:35-12:35]	94.06		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	75.77%		7.15m
Wick4[11:30-12:20]	78.37		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	62.50%		6.97m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9 [12:00-12:45]	94.90		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		4407	77.26%		7.73m
Fast X (adj)			433	3217		0/225	26667/29884	10.76%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     803/12651  [6.35% sold]
Matinee:    228/4413  [5.17% | 6.70% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Maaaaan, I dunno.  Walkups are strong enough that it should clear 7m at least.  But they ain't as strong as they were for F9.  Also looks to be a bit top-heavy at the stronger theaters in town as I ain't seeing as much action at the mid-tier/lower end of the upper tier of local theaters.  Still, 7.25m to 7.75m might be the initial range, presuming Sacto isn't underperforming for some reason.

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:15pm]

NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:50pm were sampled at the beginning of their showing.

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	243	29125	33247	4122	12.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

717

 

T-0 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	110.30		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		3737	110.30%		6.84m
Bats [3:00-4:30]	35.06		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	35.06%		7.57m
TG:M [3:30-4:45]	35.92		1111	11474		2/345	31538/43012	26.68%		11474	35.92%		7.10m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	37.59		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	37.59%		6.77m
BA [3:50-4:30]	91.72		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	91.72%		6.97m
Wick4 [3:50-4:15]	75.66		1103	5448		0/186	17238/22686	24.01%		5448	75.66%		6.73m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-0 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9 [5:30-6:10]	88.22		1017	4407		0/161	15341/19748	22.32%		4407	93.53%		7.19m
Fast X (adj)			562	3888		0/225	25996/29884	13.01%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     1029/12651  [8.13% sold]
Matinee:    361/4413  [8.18% | 8.76% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Meh.  Not great, not terrible.  Won't be surprised if Universal pulls a stunt and says it's 7.2m, just to try to move it past F9, but I don't feel like playing games.  Comps point from 6.7m to 7.6m, but The Batman was very PLF heavy (plus it underperformed here) so let's go with an even 7m +/-.4m.

 

Just barely worth the track. :=/