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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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poweranimals Box Office Gold

poweranimals

Posted
Posted

I'm starting to think WB made a mistake showing off the Flash so early. When NWH was coming out, that was all anyone was talking about on Tiktok as they were coming up with all their speculation and hyping up the movie which draw a lot of attention to it. I remember it was like every other video on my timeline. Alternatively, all the 'influencers" on Tiktok have already seen the movie so the hype is down as a result.

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rehpyc Indie Sensation

rehpyc

Posted
Posted (edited)

So for the next few days (T-4 to T-0), if I give RoTB the highest daily growth experienced between JWD, BA, JW4 & FX to project its resulting T-0 cume, and compare that against each of the film's T-0 cume and resulting industry Thursday, I get the following projections:

 

JWD: 5.6M

BA: 5.5M

JW4: 5.8M

FX: 5.7M

 

Growth Rates

 

T RoTB JWD BA JW4 FX
T-3 21% 18% 21% 21% 19%
T-2 25% 18% 25% 23% 22%
T-1 31% 27% 30% 31% 32%
T-0 172% 113% 172% 148% 172%
Edited by rehpyc
Added growth rates
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, rehpyc said:

So for the next few days (T-4 to T-0), if I give RoTB the highest daily growth experienced between JWD, BA, JW4 & FX to project its resulting T-0 cume, and compare that against each of the film's T-0 cume and resulting industry Thursday, I get the following projections:

 

JWD: 5.6M

BA: 5.5M

JW4: 5.8M

FX: 5.7M

 

Growth Rates

 

T RoTB JWD BA JW4 FX
T-3 21% 18% 21% 21% 19%
T-2 25% 18% 25% 23% 22%
T-1 31% 27% 30% 31% 32%
T-0 172% 113% 172% 148% 172%

Are you just looking at thursday or are you including early fan shows on wednesday as well. That will add about a million dollars as well. 

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raegr Box Office Gold

raegr

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

What're we looking at for Transformers, because to my untrained eye these numbers look...bad.

I think 55-60M is a good bet with 6-8M previews. Can someone back me up on this?

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/4/2023 at 3:44 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 240 3271 7.34%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 182 1702 10.69%

 

Wednesday: 546(+32)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
895 55 18750 4.77% 13 108

 

0.423 JW Dominion T-4 7.62M

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 270 3271 8.25%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 205 1705 12.02%

 

Wednesday: 638(+92)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1042 147 18750 5.56% 13 108

 

1.544 Fast X T-3 11.58M
1.292 Black Adam T-3 9.82M
0.439 JW Dominion T-3 7.90M
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Starphanluke Indie Sensation

Starphanluke

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

What're we looking at for Transformers, because to my untrained eye these numbers look...bad.

 

16 minutes ago, raegr said:

I think 55-60M is a good bet with 6-8M previews. Can someone back me up on this?

Ehh, it seems to me like things are pointing to somewhere in the $40-55m range (with the caveat that it's hard to gauge what kind IM it will have), but I'm no expert. 

 

Let's see what reviews/the review bump looks like tomorrow.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/4/2023 at 3:46 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Alamo Drafthouse

T-4 Thursday 122 Showings 1413 +200 17692 ATP: 15.08
0.181 JW Dominion T-4 3.27M

 

T-5 Friday 137 Showings 1207 +169 21578 ATP: 14.56
0.146 JW Dominion T-5 6.08M

 

T-6 Saturday 136 Showings 948 +166 21340 ATP: 14.24
0.117 JW Dominion T-6 5.50M

 

T-7 Sunday 125 Showings 463 +105 19981 ATP: 13.00
0.105 JW Dominion T-7 4.06M

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Alamo Drafthouse

T-3 Thursday 127 Showings 1725 +312 18064 ATP: 14.97
0.585 Fast X T-3 4.39M
0.522 Black Adam T-3 3.96M
0.203 JW Dominion T-3 3.65M

 

T-4 Friday 145 Showings 1583 +376 20963 ATP: 14.60
0.519 Fast X T-4 10.65M
0.491 Black Adam T-4 9.37M
0.171 JW Dominion T-4 7.09M

 

T-5 Saturday 140 Showings 1193 +245 21363 ATP: 14.22
0.561 Fast X T-5 12.61M
0.397 Black Adam T-5 9.40M
0.130 JW Dominion T-5 6.10M

 

T-6 Sunday 124 Showings 571 +108 19428 ATP: 13.16
0.710 Fast X T-6 11.72M
0.513 Black Adam T-6 8.52M
0.112 JW Dominion T-6 4.31M
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Dragoncaine Sleeper Hit

Dragoncaine

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, raegr said:

I think 55-60M is a good bet with 6-8M previews. Can someone back me up on this?

Based on what trackers were saying on the last page re: Transformers' likely IM, we may be looking at sub-7x for OW, so the low end of your preview range would barely crack $40m, while the high end would crack the low end of your range at best. But we have to see how things accelerate with reviews tomorrow.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/4/2023 at 3:47 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Emagine Entertainment

T-3 Wednesday 5 Showings 141 +30 817
T-4 Thursday 148 Showings 599 +44 22307

 

T-5 Friday 228 Showings 885 +177 33263

 

T-6 Saturday 238 Showings 618 +84 35061

 

T-7 Sunday 236 Showings 328 +39 34591

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Emagine Entertainment

T-2 Wednesday 5 Showings 173 +32 817
T-3 Thursday 153 Showings 705 +106 23059
0.706 Fast X T-3 5.29M

 

T-4 Friday 235 Showings 1119 +234 34374
0.615 Fast X T-4 12.62M

 

T-5 Saturday 246 Showings 767 +149 35988
0.706 Fast X T-5 15.89M

 

T-6 Sunday 244 Showings 439 +111 35774
1.092 Fast X T-6 18.02M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/4/2023 at 3:48 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 284 2188 12.98%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 150 1179 12.72%

 

Monday: 211

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
938 18 19758 4.75% 13 106

 

0.641 Across the Spider-Verse T-11 11.12M
0.334 Ant-Man 3 T-11 5.84M
0.227 Thor L&T T-11 6.60M
0.307 Batman T-11 6.63M
0.760 Eternals T-11 7.22M

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 293 2188 13.39%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 164 1179 13.91%

 

Monday: 217(+6)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1018 80 20101 5.06% 13 108

 

0.656 Across the Spider-Verse T-10 11.37M
1.989 Black Adam T-10 15.11M
0.234 Thor L&T T-10 6.78M
0.784 Eternals T-10 7.45M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/4/2023 at 3:51 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-11 Thursday 120 Showings 2466 +57 19862 ATP: 15.69
0.521 Across the Spider-Verse T-11 9.04M
0.240 Ant-Man 3 T-11 4.19M
0.199 Thor L&T T-11 5.76M
0.277 The Batman T-11 4.87M
0.514 Eternals T-11 4.88M

 

T-12 Friday 154 Showings 1706 +96 25652 ATP: 16.12
0.394 Across the Spider-Verse T-12 13.61M
0.190 Ant-Man 3 T-12 5.50M
0.168 Thor L&T T-12 6.80M
0.192 The Batman T-12 6.73M
0.402 Eternals T-12 8.59M

 

T-13 Saturday 152 Showings 1551 +94 25359 ATP: 15.31
0.357 Across the Spider-Verse T-13 13.34M
0.166 Ant-Man 3 T-13 5.64M
0.161 Thor L&T T-13 6.76M
0.184 The Batman T-13 7.96M
0.360 Eternals T-13 8.68M

 

T-14 Sunday 137 Showings 660 +45 23476 ATP: 14.34
0.267 Across the Spider-Verse T-14 8.33M
0.156 Ant-Man 3 T-14 4.03M
0.125 Thor L&T T-14 4.06M
0.187 The Batman T-14 6.38M
0.264 Eternals T-14 4.31M

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-10 Thursday 120 Showings 2630 +164 19535 ATP: 15.72
0.525 Across the Spider-Verse T-10 9.10M
1.804 Black Adam T-10 13.71M
0.206 Thor L&T T-10 5.99M
0.529 Eternals T-10 5.02M

 

T-11 Friday 154 Showings 1816 +110 25648 ATP: 16.14
0.398 Across the Spider-Verse T-11 13.75M
1.486 Black Adam T-11 28.37M
0.171 Thor L&T T-11 6.93M
0.412 Eternals T-11 8.80M

 

T-12 Saturday 152 Showings 1643 +92 25355 ATP: 15.31
0.361 Across the Spider-Verse T-12 13.51M
1.299 Black Adam T-12 30.79M
0.163 Thor L&T T-12 6.86M
0.366 Eternals T-12 8.83M

 

T-13 Sunday 137 Showings 704 +44 23472 ATP: 14.31
0.257 Across the Spider-Verse T-13 8.04M
1.600 Black Adam T-13 26.56M
0.127 Thor L&T T-13 4.13M
0.268 Eternals T-13 4.38M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/4/2023 at 3:52 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Emagine Entertainment

T-11 Thursday 135 Showings 1154 +43 20807
0.817 Across the Spider-Verse T-11 14.17M

 

T-12 Friday 216 Showings 669 +28 33119
0.498 Across the Spider-Verse T-12 17.19M

 

T-13 Saturday 209 Showings 499 +38 32391
0.774 Across the Spider-Verse T-13 28.93M

 

T-14 Sunday 203 Showings 205 +18 31469
0.717 Across the Spider-Verse T-14 22.40M

The Flash Emagine Entertainment

T-10 Thursday 140 Showings 1207 +53 21583
0.793 Across the Spider-Verse T-10 13.75M

 

T-11 Friday 224 Showings 718 +49 34205
0.490 Across the Spider-Verse T-11 16.91M

 

T-12 Saturday 217 Showings 561 +62 33563
0.724 Across the Spider-Verse T-12 27.07M

 

T-13 Sunday 211 Showings 217 +12 32641
0.693 Across the Spider-Verse T-13 21.67M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/4/2023 at 3:54 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 116 2338 4.96%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 158 1365 11.58%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
535 10 19985 2.68% 13 102

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 121 2338 5.18%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 162 1365 11.87%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
554 19 20226 2.74% 13 102

 

0.398 JW Dominion T-24 7.16M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/4/2023 at 3:55 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-25 Thursday 113 Showings 3678 +54 18507 ATP: 15.58

 

T-26 Friday 157 Showings 2937 +48 26277 ATP: 15.50

 

T-27 Saturday 158 Showings 2872 +82 26614 ATP: 14.75

 

T-28 Sunday 141 Showings 1430 +48 23938 ATP: 14.23

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-24 Thursday 113 Showings 3732 +54 18505 ATP: 15.57
1.14 JW Dominion T-24 20.51M

 

T-25 Friday 157 Showings 2988 +51 26273 ATP: 15.49
1.13 JW Dominion T-25 47.18M

 

T-26 Saturday 158 Showings 2962 +90 26610 ATP: 14.75
1.06 JW Dominion T-26 49.64M

 

T-27 Sunday 141 Showings 1463 +33 23934 ATP: 14.23
1.33 JW Dominion T-27 51.43M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/4/2023 at 3:56 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

T-25 Thursday 137 Showings 676 +13 21315

 

T-26 Friday 221 Showings 225 +17 33765

 

T-27 Saturday 217 Showings 133 +4 33455

 

T-28 Sunday 215 Showings 57 +0 32775

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

T-24 Thursday 143 Showings 689 +13 22081

 

T-25 Friday 232 Showings 260 +35 35325

 

T-26 Saturday 228 Showings 144 +11 34892

 

T-27 Sunday 226 Showings 66 +9 34212
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