The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[emoviefan]

11 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Oh i forgot they decided to drop on WED, you’re right 

 

well that will mess the comps even more lol

Yeah i think they feel it is more important to make as much money earlier as possible than make it easier for people on this forum and their comps LOL. they would have probably moved it up to the 7th if Disney with Indy did not have the PLFS locked until the 9th or so,

[Bobzaruni]

5 hours ago, raegr said:

If 155-165M WW opening holds true, this might struggle to cross 400M at the box office. That would be an unmitigated disaster. 

ATSV Opened to 210M~ and is at 400M already with ROTB Week 2. It wouldn't be that far of a stretch imo with nothing in its second week.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Bobzaruni

[Eric Lasagna]

5 hours ago, M37 said:

So what I'm gathering is that Barbie shows will be full of unmarried, child-free, higher earning women under 40?

 

This feels like the setup to a really weird, but hilarious episode of Beavis and Butt-Head.

[Phoenix22]

6 hours ago, raegr said:

If 155-165M WW opening holds true, this might struggle to cross 400M at the box office. That would be an unmitigated disaster. 

Not sure, Black Adam opened to $140M WW and managed to hit $393M and that was without China and with worse reviews than Flash and also without any JL member; let's say that it opens to $160M WW then with the 2.8x legs of BA it does $448M.

 

I'll say: 

OW: $80M

DOM: $195M

WW: $320M 

Total: $515M 

 

And that would be enough to just break even which at least it won't make them lose money after PVOD and home media and streaming rights, probably it could make a cute profit of around $50M - $70M in the end. 

[Eric Lasagna]

15 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

Elemental Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	284	9317	3.05%

 

Comp - T-3

4.057x of The Bad Guys (4.66M)

0.437x of Lightyear (2.27M)

0.427x of Minions 2 (4.59M)

9.467x of Paws of Fury (4.78M)

2.151x of DC Super Pets (4.73M)

8.875x of Lyle Lyle Crocodile (5.1M)

 

Don't expect it to stay this high.

Elemental Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	84	352	11295	3.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 68

 

Comp - T-2

3.826x of The Bad Guys (4.4M)

0.440x of Lightyear (2.29M)

0.364x of Minions 2 (3.91M)

9.263x of Paws of Fury (4.68M)

2.023x of DC Super Pets (4.45M)

8.186x of Lyle Lyle Crocodile (4.71M)

[Eric Lasagna]

15 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	2618	18907	13.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 281

 

Comp - T-3

0.336x of The Batman (7.25M)

0.842x of Jurassic World 3 (15.15M)

0.317x of Thor 4 (9.18M)

1.635x of Black Adam (12.43M)

0.710x of Avatar 2 (12.07M)

0.440x of Ant-Man 3 (7.7M)

0.495x of Guardians 3 (8.66M)

0.771x of Spider-Verse (13.37M)

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	116	2847	21860	13.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 229

 

Comp - T-2

0.326x of The Batman (7.04M)

0.813x of Jurassic World 3 (14.64M)

0.308x of Thor 4 (8.95M)

1.477x of Black Adam (11.23M)

0.698x of Avatar 2 (11.86M)

0.440x of Ant-Man 3 (7.7M)

0.491x of Guardians 3 (8.59M)

0.696x of Spider-Verse (12.07M)

 

I'm going to be at work for the next eight hours, so I really don't want to see any meltdowns or funny business here while I'm gone and away from a computer. So everybody be on their best behavior, okay? T_T

[SchumacherFTW]

2 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	116	2847	21860	13.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 229

 

Comp - T-2

0.326x of The Batman (7.04M)

0.813x of Jurassic World 3 (14.64M)

0.308x of Thor 4 (8.95M)

1.477x of Black Adam (11.23M)

0.698x of Avatar 2 (11.86M)

0.440x of Ant-Man 3 (7.7M)

0.491x of Guardians 3 (8.59M)

0.696x of Spider-Verse (12.07M)

 

I'm going to be at work for the next eight hours, so I really don't want to see any meltdowns or funny business here while I'm gone and away from a computer. So everybody be on their best behavior, okay? T_T

Welcome to UK time, the correct time 👀

[Legion Again]

Philly was overindexing, now coming more in line with over regions. Not hugely alarming

[Eric Lasagna]

15 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Welcome to UK time, the correct time 👀

I’ve been here since May, mate.

[Legion Again]

Ad here I was about to congratulate you on rejoining the graveyard side 

[Porthos]

Barbie showtimes are going up at least at one theater locally; not for sale yet obvs. 

 

After checking out of town, looks to be 3pm previews.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-3]

532/10148 (4.57% sold) [+98 tickets]

0.45200x GBA            at T-3     [2.03m]

0.32638x Sonic 2      at T-3      [2.04m]

0.27927x Minions 2  at T-3      [3.00m]

0.43750x Nope         at T-3      [2.80m]

0.76218x Shazam 2  at T-3      [2.59m]

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-2]

673/10780 (6.24% sold) [+141 tickets]

0.44570x GBA            at T-2     [2.01m]

0.32108x Sonic 2      at T-2      [2.01m]

0.24616x Minions 2  at T-2      [2.65m]

0.43447x Nope         at T-2      [2.78m]

0.83189x Shazam 2  at T-2      [2.83m]

[Porthos]

On 6/13/2023 at 2:33 AM, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-38]

546/7572 [7.21% sold] [+19 tickets] [50 showings]

70mm:              295/776   [+7 tickets] [54.03% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   208/3558 [+8 tickets] [37.00% of all tickets sold]

Standard:           49/3238 [+4 tickets] [8.97% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-37]

585/7572 [7.73% sold]   [+39 tickets] [50 showings]

70mm:              307/776    [+12 tickets] [52.48% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   213/3558  [+11 tickets] [36.41% of all tickets sold]

Standard:           65/3238 [+16 tickets] [11.11% of all tickets sold]

Edited June 15, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	125	18415	19521	1106	5.67%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	n/a
Total Seats Sold Today	48

NOTE:  The local drive-in, which is non-reserved seating, finally checked in with its initial set.

 

T-17 Comps:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	49.95		48	2214		0/188	22929/25143	8.81%		10966	10.09%		8.99m
FX	127.13		31	870		0/182	26837/27707	3.14%		4122	26.83%		9.53m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     203/6084  [3.34% sold]
Matinee:    65/1728  [3.76% | 5.88% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	128	19125	20241	1116	5.51%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	720
Total Seats Sold Today	10

 

T-16 Comps:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	47.98		112	2326		0/190	22988/25314	9.19%		10966	10.18%		8.64m
FX	123.18		36	906		0/178	26804/27710	3.27%		4122	27.07%		9.24m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     216/6084  [3.55% sold]
Matinee:    68/1728  [3.94% | 6.09% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	193	23824	26237	2413	9.20%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	15
Total Net Seats Added Today	1095
Total Seats Sold Today	217

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	35.65		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	20.52%		7.70m
BA	111.10		286	2172		0/223	27742/29914	7.26%		4494	53.69%		8.44m
Shazam 2	345.70		80	698		0/139	19789/20487	3.41%		1663	145.10%		11.75m
Wick 4	91.16		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	44.29%		8.11m
AtSV	54.12		516	4459		0/142	18015/22474	19.84%		9744	24.76%		9.39m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     417/6041  [6.90% sold]
Matinee:    77/2494  [3.09% | 3.19% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Not exactly a great day of sales locally. To say the least.

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	197	23670	26492	2822	10.65%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	255
Total Seats Sold Today	409

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	35.64		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	24.00%		7.70m
BA	109.85		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	62.79%		8.35m
Shazam 2	348.83		111	809		0/159	21916/22725	3.56%		1663	169.69%		11.86m
AtSV	52.23		944	5403		0/230	23909/29312	18.43%		9744	28.96%		9.06m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     485/6041  [8.03% sold]
Matinee:    117/2323  [5.04% | 4.15% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Couple notes.  Removed the JW4 comp as it ceased being useful, IMO, as it was mostly around for pace purposes.  Also, The Batman had its first night of two EA events at T-2, so both today and tomorrow are gonna be slightly affected pace wise.  This will (hopefully) be counteracted by a stronger final day for The Flash versus it.

 

Conversely, AtSV is starting to accelerate in sales thanks to reviews + no longer worrying about MDW suppressing sales.

 

Aside from those notes?  Comps are what they are.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

T-3 Flash Thursday preview update

Milton, ON

 

I wasn't planning to do daily updates on this, but, given the traffic in this thread, I figure I might as well add more data, as limited as it is.

 

Sales did see a 20% bump, which is what it needs to stay pace right now. Just not enough to make up ground.

 

0.885x of Fast X for $6.6M

2.000x of ROTB for $15.2M

0.249x of ATSV for $4.3M

 

ROTB had its review embargo lift on the T-2 update, but it still didn't see much movement until it's final day walk ups.

 

Schools are also in full session right now in this region, so things will underindex for previews compared to other areas.

 

@Tinalera have you tracked Flash for any Canadian theatres? I'd be curious how other theatres are doing in this region.

 

T-2 Flash Thursday preview update

Milton, ON

 

Another update. Another day where things aren't bad, but not great. 17% jump in sales, which roughly keeps pace, but doesn't make up ground.

 

0.857x of Fast X for $6.4M

2.077x of ROTB for $15.8M

0.254x of ATSV for $4.4M

 

Tomorrow, I should be able to bring in a GOTG3 comp, but barring anything unusual, that'll likely hover in the 6-6.5M range.

[SchumacherFTW]

46 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

I’ve been here since May, mate.

Now just get yo ass to London 😜

[Legion Again]

On 6/10/2023 at 3:38 AM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Still getting some sheets back end up to do this more conveniently for each region each day, but here’s the last few days for my “size-adjusted avg comp” for Sacto:

T-12 9.16M

T-11 9.28M

T-10 9.3M

T-9 9.55M

T-8 9.6M

T-7 9.4M

T-6 9.5M  

T-5 9.45M

T-4 9.35M

T-3 9.08M

T-2 8.99M

 

So today was basically fine under that view — in fact things have been pretty stable, which is the hope. 
 

Fwiw, without Shazam (the biggest size outlier):

T-12 9.61M

T-11 9.64M

T-10 9.58M

T-9 9.72M

T-8 9.71M

T-7 9.31M

T-6 9.3M

T-5 9.14M

T-4 8.85M

T-3 8.48M

T-2 8.28M

Note that these *do* still include JW4 to remain apples to apples. Without JW4:

T-4 9.56

T-3 9.31

T-2 9.24

[Dlund87]

11 hours ago, ConnorFilm said:

Variety says tracking is still looking like $70M, with some industry analysts claiming it really well could climb to $85M. 
 

No matter which way you spin it, opening to under $100M is disappointing. Opening to under $90M is just BAD. Ezra’s time is almost up. No way Gunn keeps them after this. He is so obviously going to cast a whole new crew of actors for the Justice League. 

I think they could be lowballing it. 

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Dlund87 said:

I think they could be lowballing it. 

Even 70 is quite a clear highball at this point