The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[excel1]

7 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

 presales through the weekend right now seem to be point sub-$50M….

 

...

 

WB might announce Cavill Superman vs. Rock's Black Adam directed by Hack Snyder for Christmas 2024 on Tuesday of next week if that happens..

[excel1]

My theater must be an overperformer because I just had to buy 4 pretty shitty seats for the Sat night prime showing. 37 out of 240 seats are left. 😒

 

$125m+ incoming...

Edited June 14, 2023 by excel1

[filmlover]

Sub-$50M (an opening lower than Lightyear on Father's Day weekend last year) would be absolutely catastrophic. Don't think it will actually happen though even if not by a whole lot (maybe).

[excel1]

Just now, filmlover said:

Sub-$50M (an opening lower than Lightyear on Father's Day weekend last year) would be absolutely catastrophic. Don't think it will actually happen though even if not by a whole lot (maybe).

 

Shawn and BOP had the high end forecast for this film at $140m 1 month ago. This would be an all-time large miss tbh 

[Borobudur]

5 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Shawn and BOP had the high end forecast for this film at $140m 1 month ago. This would be an all-time large miss tbh 

I always thought ATOW was one of the bigger miss since reopening. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Anecdotal tidbit: at my hometown AMC that I used to work at, sales for Flash are slightly going up, but it’s VERY Dolby heavy. Not surprising since Dolby is like the one good auditorium there. They also just put traditional 2D showings on sale, and those are mostly selling for Thursday.

Edited June 14, 2023 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I always thought ATOW was one of the bigger miss since reopening. 

Initial range 135-175, actual 134. Pretty fine.   
 

I haven’t explicitly been keeping track or anything but I think some of the biggest misses (for movies opening like 20M+) have been:

TSS

Shazam

Flash

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Initial range 135-175, actual 134. Pretty fine.   
 

I haven’t explicitly been keeping track or anything but I think some of the biggest misses (for movies opening like 20M+) have been:

TSS

Shazam

Flash

The lower end was that low? I remember most tracking even until the last week before release still had it going over at least $150m. The meltdown during OW shouldn't be that bad if 135m was "somewhat expected". 

 

But anyway, I agree Flash is the bigger miss now. 

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Initial range 135-175, actual 134. Pretty fine.   
 

I haven’t explicitly been keeping track or anything but I think some of the biggest misses (for movies opening like 20M+) have been:

TSS

Shazam

Flash

Yikes at what all these movies have in common.

 

The new era can't come fast enough.

 

[ringedmortality]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yikes at what all these movies have in common.

 

The new era can't come fast enough.

 

 

I mean considering the track record, it feels like Superman: Legacy will open to like 80-90 million. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

31 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Sub-$50M (an opening lower than Lightyear on Father's Day weekend last year) would be absolutely catastrophic. Don't think it will actually happen though even if not by a whole lot (maybe).

It should do 60-65 ideally.

 

Even 9 Million  Previews with 6 IM gives it 54

 

So Chances of missing 50 are low, that would require less than 9 previews and less than 6 IM, which seems far fetched.

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

The lower end was that low? I remember most tracking even until the last week before release still had it going over at least $150m. The meltdown during OW shouldn't be that bad if 135m was "somewhat expected". 

 

But anyway, I agree Flash is the bigger miss now. 

From certain perspective I would still say Avatar 2 is bigger miss. Assuming Flash open to $70m++ range, I would argue that has been the range since the movie first came into tracking, it is just people waiting for the pace to pick up eventually but unfortunately that doesn't seem to come true. Whereas for Avatar 2, it does point to $170m+ range OW at one point of time but just couldn't maintain the momentum and fell off gradually. 

 

For flash the trend has not been kind from the start so people have time to "be prepared" but for A2 the trend was looking very very healthy until it isn't. Of course A2 has leggy run to save the face but purely for its OW, A2 still feel like a bigger disappointment because trend was once great.      

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

From certain perspective I would still say Avatar 2 is bigger miss. Assuming Flash open to $70m++ range, I would argue that has been the range since the movie first came into tracking, it is just people waiting for the pace to pick up eventually but unfortunately that doesn't seem to come true. Whereas for Avatar 2, it does point to $170m+ range OW at one point of time but just couldn't maintain the momentum and fell off gradually. 

 

For flash the trend has not been kind from the start so people have time to "be prepared" but for A2 the trend was looking very very healthy until it isn't. Of course A2 has leggy run to save the face but purely for its OW, A2 still feel like a bigger disappointment because trend was once great.      

The discussion was purely about final vs the initial BOP range (135-175 Ava, 115-140 flash). With a serious chance to go under half the low end Flash is shaping up to be maybe the biggest divergence on a movie post pandemic (aside from initial range 6-8 actual 1.5 kinda stuff which is a different boat).

[GOGODanca]

14 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

The lower end was that low? I remember most tracking even until the last week before release still had it going over at least $150m. The meltdown during OW shouldn't be that bad if 135m was "somewhat expected". 

 

But anyway, I agree Flash is the bigger miss now. 

well thats cause presales until the last week were pointing at 150m+ OW and the it just had a poor finish

[keysersoze123]

MTC1 Friday

Elemental - 24861/590735 353506.47 4234 shows // +6376

Flash - 73661/1012561 1326391.37 5581 shows // roughly 12.6K from yesterday. 

[WorkingonaName]

9 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

I mean considering the track record, it feels like Superman: Legacy will open to like 80-90 million. 

Might as well call it Superman LEGacy

[filmlover]

It would be amusing after all the handwringing over Elemental opening the same weekend as The Flash and how the latter might really hurt the former if they ended up with virtually the same total (since one has to assume an animated original will have much better potential for staying power in the weeks ahead than a fan-driven comic book movie).

[Bobzaruni]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Friday

Elemental - 24861/590735 353506.47 4234 shows // +6376

Flash - 73661/1012561 1326391.37 5581 shows // roughly 12.6K from yesterday. 

Any range for Elemental based on pre-sales? 3.5-4.5M 10x IM?

[ConnorFilm]

Box Office Pro has this now opening anywhere from $60-80M this weekend. Not good numbers at all. Yeesh. 

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

That’s bleak for sure, but do you have anything comparable to bounce the info against? I suppose we better hope that walkups are decent because presales through the weekend right now seem to be point sub-$50M….

Well I mean... 

 

On 3/14/2023 at 10:29 AM, DAJK said:

HAHAHAHAHA

 

They refunded their ticket. BACK TO ZERO BABY! We’re in for a glorious bomb for the ages folks, this is ridiculous!!!

Following Shazam's pattern here, we're in for an infinity opening weekend.