The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Krissykins]

At this point I’d be really impressed with $70m+ for Flash lol

[cookie]

55 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Sub-$50M (an opening lower than Lightyear on Father's Day weekend last year) would be absolutely catastrophic. Don't think it will actually happen though even if not by a whole lot (maybe).

Sub-$60m for Flash alone would be disastrous, let alone $50m. Even below Black Adam would be pretty bad given what's gone into it.

[misterpepp]

Insidious 5 on sale Jun 21

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

 

Shawn and BOP had the high end forecast for this film at $140m 1 month ago. This would be an all-time large miss tbh 

 

Shawn just forgot to read my summer thoughts:).

 

(Yes, yes, I've missed, too - this is a joke:)...

[vafrow]

BOP forecast is up

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-flash-elemental-and-the-blackening-debut-for-fathers-day-and-juneteenth-frame/

 

Notables: Flash at $69M, Elemental at $33.3M , just a hair above ATSV.

 

They estimate Fast X to drop below 2K theatre count. They also estimate Asteroid City to hit $1M in limited 6 theatre release.

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

Any range for Elemental based on pre-sales? 3.5-4.5M 10x IM?

That seems to high for previews. Probably around 3m I would say. Its ATP will be lower due to very few PLF shows. But let us see how things tomorrow. 

 

Friday presales are better. so IM could go above 10 as well if walkups are robust. Lightyear did terrible on that end. 

[cookie]

1 minute ago, vafrow said:

BOP forecast is up

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-flash-elemental-and-the-blackening-debut-for-fathers-day-and-juneteenth-frame/

 

Notables: Flash at $69M, Elemental at $33.3M , just a hair above ATSV.

 

They estimate Fast X to drop below 2K theatre count. They also estimate Asteroid City to hit $1M in limited 6 theatre release.

Would be a pretty poor drop for Transformers, but fantastic for Little Mermaid and GotG3. TLM would even be running ahead of Aladdin at that rate.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, vafrow said:

BOP forecast is up

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-flash-elemental-and-the-blackening-debut-for-fathers-day-and-juneteenth-frame/

 

Notables: Flash at $69M, Elemental at $33.3M , just a hair above ATSV.

 

They estimate Fast X to drop below 2K theatre count. They also estimate Asteroid City to hit $1M in limited 6 theatre release.

$1M for Asteroid City seems to be asking a lot tbh. Would make it the biggest PTA since La La Land.

[Rageofthegods]

Just now, filmlover said:

$1M for Asteroid City seems to be asking a lot tbh. Would make it the biggest PTA since La La Land.

They're doing an insane $50 experience thing this weekend in NY and LA. They're selling really well too. 

 

Dunno about 1m but it's gonna have a high PTA for sure. 

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

$1M for Asteroid City seems to be asking a lot tbh. Would make it the biggest PTA since La La Land.

 

Let's hope so

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

6 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

 

Notables: Flash at $69M,

 

 

 

Nice.

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That seems to high for previews. Probably around 3m I would say. Its ATP will be lower due to very few PLF shows. But let us see how things tomorrow. 

 

Friday presales are better. so IM could go above 10 as well if walkups are robust. Lightyear did terrible on that end. 

 

Walkups will be good on Thursday if this is family attracting b/c acres of K-12s are out and it has 3pm previews...$3M just seems low to me if we're getting into the $30s for the weekend - it should be like a 3.5 day weekend in 3 days...

 

That said, I did check my Cinemarks, and they are not starting a preview after 8:40pm for this movie...and now looking all weekend, that's every day.  They are not planning for this to draw teens or non-kid toting adults, unless they are 65+ with the showtime sets:)...

Edited June 14, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[ConnorFilm]

Even *if* Flash has great walk-in business and climbs into the $80M range, that's still not great. This film needs great WOM and good legs or this thing is DOA. Curious to see films hold up in the next few weeks given how ridiculously cramped June's releases are. 

[Shawn Robbins]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

$1M for Asteroid City seems to be asking a lot tbh. Would make it the biggest PTA since La La Land.

This was rounded up accidentally, should be $750K.

[YM!]

10 minutes ago, cookie said:

Would be a pretty poor drop for Transformers, but fantastic for Little Mermaid and GotG3. TLM would even be running ahead of Aladdin at that rate.

Double features with Elemental baybee

[YSLDC]

The fact that people aren't sure if The Flash can go sub 50 or go above 80 at this stage is why I love box office 

[Liiviig 1998]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

BOP forecast is up

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-flash-elemental-and-the-blackening-debut-for-fathers-day-and-juneteenth-frame/

 

Notables: Flash at $69M, Elemental at $33.3M , just a hair above ATSV.

 

They estimate Fast X to drop below 2K theatre count. They also estimate Asteroid City to hit $1M in limited 6 theatre release.

Flash is wthin my range but sadly it won't reach that. Still hoping for a good final day to push previews to 10m and have good walk-ups through the father's day weekend for 6.8-7*IM .

 

TLM is a little high . It's been mirroring slightly behind  Aladdin so 17m+.

Rest seems fine to me.

[21C]

2 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

The fact that people aren't sure if The Flash can go sub 50 or go above 80 at this stage is why I love box office 

Which tracker is still saying it'll go above 80? 

[Ezen Baklattan]

16 minutes ago, vafrow said:

BOP forecast is up

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-flash-elemental-and-the-blackening-debut-for-fathers-day-and-juneteenth-frame/

 

Notables: Flash at $69M, Elemental at $33.3M , just a hair above ATSV.

 

They estimate Fast X to drop below 2K theatre count. They also estimate Asteroid City to hit $1M in limited 6 theatre release.

TBH I'd be very satisfied with over $30m for Spider-Verse, near direct competition from two angles. Think it could mean $20m next weekend easily.

 

That TLM hold feels...a bit optimistic for me. Elemental isn't gonna drive as much double feature sales as, say, Incredibles 2 or Toy Story 4 would, and I think the more female skew might prevent a huge boost on Father's Day. 

 

If GOTG3 does drop only 25% this weekend, I think 3x is for sure happening.

[YSLDC]

9 minutes ago, 21C said:

Which tracker is still saying it'll go above 80? 

 

BoxOfficePro has 60-80 right now