The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[abracadabra1998]

Twin Cities Previews:

 

All of these are counted as of last night. Don't have many comps at the moment since I've been in a hiatus so I'm just saving these numbers for future reference, and maybe they can still be helpful in terms of # of shows and % sold

 

No Hard Feelings (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	26	17	17	2131	0.8

 

Horrible

 

Asteroid City (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 8 theaters	9	122	122	722	16.9

 

Like katniss said, also looking really strong. Only knock against it is the super limited # of shows.

 

Indiana Jones (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	75	572	572	12756	4.48

 

We'll see how this keeps growing.

 

Ruby Gillman (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	30	3	3	2915	0.1

 

This will save cinema.

 

Joy Ride (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 11 theaters	42	9	9	3622	0.25

 

Why this has so many shows, I'm not sure.

 

Oppenheimer (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	35	555	555	6250	8.88

 

Almost as much as Indy... with two weeks ahead of it. Over 80% is PLFs, including a couple of near-sold out 70 MM shows

 

Let me know if you have feedback regarding formatting or the way I make these posts. I'm not going to do these daily to avoid burning out, except for during release weeks.

Edited June 16, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/15/2023 at 10:37 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-26	Jax	5	67	75	75	10,608	0.71%
		Phx	6	58	35	35	11,155	0.31%
		Ral	7	52	66	66	8,186	0.81%
	Total		18	177	176	176	29,949	0.59%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-25	Jax	4	6	42	42	1,277	3.29%
		Phx	1	1	24	24	410	5.85%
		Ral	1	1	20	20	261	7.66%
	Total		6	8	86	86	1,948	4.41%

 

M:I 7 (Total) 24hr comps

 - F9 (24hrs) - .963x (6.84m)

 - JW3 (23hrs) - .264x (4.74m)

 - Top Gun (23hrs) - .252x (4.86m)

 - Shazam 2 (22hrs) - 1.926x (6.55m)

 

This is getting a little out of hand.  Tomorrow I will switch to multiple posts - one for each release week.  I'm not really a fan of splitting things out into a ton of posts as it clogs up the board, but a wall of text isn't much better to look at.  Grouping by release week will allow for quoted threads to have a start/end instead of being one long string that lasts for years.  I would have done it today but I'm already 3.5 hours in and need to call it 😬

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-25	Jax	5	67	11	86	10,608	0.81%
		Phx	6	58	15	50	11,155	0.45%
		Ral	8	54	9	75	8,344	0.90%
	Total		19	179	35	211	30,107	0.70%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-23	Jax	3	3	28	28	418	6.70%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	363	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	10	10	111	9.01%
	Total		6	6	38	38	892	4.26%
	T-24	Jax	5	7	14	56	1,407	3.98%
		Phx	1	1	2	26	410	6.34%
		Ral	1	1	11	31	261	11.88%
	Total		7	9	27	113	2,078	5.44%

 

M:I 7 (Total) Day 2 comps

 - F9  - 1.065x (7.56m)

 - Black Widow - .476x (6.28m)

 

Not too much to go on.  Added in the Walmart+ sales today.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

Elemental 2.4

Blackening 0.75-0.8

Okay this makes way more sense. Thanks jat 

[katnisscinnaplex]

10 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Joy Ride (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 11 theaters	42	9	9	3622	0.25

 

Why this has so many shows, I'm not sure.

 

I think the reason for this is just the 3pm start time and run time.  They're giving one screen in most places and can fit four shows in each.  Alternatively, Asteroid City starts at 7pm and can only fit 2 shows.

 

One thing I'd note with Joy Ride is that most places are doing a 6pm show on 7/5 so that could take away sales from preview night.  I checked a few theaters this morning and didn't see any sales so I'm going to probably wait a week to pick this one up.  

 

Overall looks great!  

[RamblinRed]

$9.7 for Flash. Good job as usual everyone. 

 

[CJohn]

This thread continues to DELIVER.

[JpTransformers]

https://deadline.com/2023/06/box-office-the-flash-elemental-ezra-miller-1235418741/
 

the recommendation is below what I expected, let's see if this will have much impact on the total opening

[abracadabra1998]

26 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

I think the reason for this is just the 3pm start time and run time.  They're giving one screen in most places and can fit four shows in each.  Alternatively, Asteroid City starts at 7pm and can only fit 2 shows.

 

One thing I'd note with Joy Ride is that most places are doing a 6pm show on 7/5 so that could take away sales from preview night.  I checked a few theaters this morning and didn't see any sales so I'm going to probably wait a week to pick this one up.  

 

Overall looks great!  

 

For sure, great points. I've gotten too used to previews that start at 3 PM or even noon LOL. Thanks!

[Future Foundation]

You guys are really, really good at this. Congrats!

[froztking]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Twin Cities Previews:

 

All of these are counted as of last night. Don't have many comps at the moment since I've been in a hiatus so I'm just saving these numbers for future reference, and maybe they can still be helpful in terms of # of shows and % sold

 

No Hard Feelings (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	26	17	17	2131	0.8

 

Horrible

 

Asteroid City (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 8 theaters	9	122	122	722	16.9

 

Like katniss said, also looking really strong. Only knock against it is the super limited # of shows.

 

Indiana Jones (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	75	572	572	12756	4.48

 

We'll see how this keeps growing.

 

Ruby Gillman (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	30	3	3	2915	0.1

 

This will save cinema.

 

Joy Ride (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 11 theaters	42	9	9	3622	0.25

 

Why this has so many shows, I'm not sure.

 

Oppenheimer (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	35	555	555	6250	8.88

 

Almost as much as Indy... with two weeks ahead of it. Over 80% is PLFs, including a couple of near-sold out 70 MM shows

 

Let me know if you have feedback regarding formatting or the way I make these posts. I'm not going to do these daily to avoid burning out, except for during release weeks.

joy ride premiered in cinema con nd had the best reviews among all the movies premiered there ! so that maybe the reason of good number of shows it got 

[Inceptionzq]

19 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Friday

286 Showings

3262

+885

38764

0.377

Across the Spider-Verse T-1

13.00M

 

The Flash Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Friday

286 Showings

4566

+1304

38823

0.353

Across the Spider-Verse T-0

12.17M

 

19 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Friday

294 Showings

6941

+1445

40453

ATP:

15.39

0.405	Across the Spider-Verse T-1	13.97M
0.339	Guardians T-1	10.38M
0.329	Ant-Man 3 T-1	9.51M
1.110	Black Adam T-1	21.19M
0.279	Thor L&T T-1	11.31M
0.275	The Batman T-1	9.66M
0.665	Eternals T-1	14.19M

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Friday

294 Showings

8721

+1780

40453

ATP:

15.26

0.405	Across the Spider-Verse T-0	13.97M
0.357	Guardians T-0	10.93M
0.345	Ant-Man 3 T-0	9.98M

0.294

Thor L&T T-0

11.91M

0.665

Eternals T-0

14.19M

 

AtSV and Eternals preview comps came closest to the 9.7M number, 9.33 and 9.07, respectively. The pace from yesterday to earlier this morning was exactly the same as those two movies, so if it keeps following that pace throughout the day, it would suggest around 15M after adjusting up to account for the preview comps undershooting it.

[Porthos]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:55pm - 4:20pm]

All showtimes before 3:55pm were sampled at the start of their showing.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	205	21645	26972	5327	19.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

1076

 

T-0 Comps:

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats [3:00-4:30]	45.31		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	45.31%		9.79m
BA [3:45-4:35]	118.54		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	118.54%		9.01m
Shaz[3:55-4:15]	320.32		417	1663		0/166	21658/23321	7.13%		1663	320.32%		10.89m
AtSV[11:40-12:15]	54.67		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	54.67%		9.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1036/6041  [17.15% sold]
Matinee:    367/2323  [15.80% | 6.89% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Score one for @M37 as this had exceedingly strong final walkups.  Not strong enough to keep that Shazam 2 pace, as I thought.  But still very strong.

 

Still think Sacto is being a little squirrely and we don't have those fan first deelios, but let's go with 9.75m +/- .5m.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-0 *Final update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
267	5713	53314	10.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 1:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1066

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.528x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$9.2M THUR Previews

 

(0.511x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$8.9M THUR Previews 

 

(1.484x) of FAST X

~$11.1M THUR Previews

 

(1.257x) of TRANSFORMERS RoTB

~$11M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $10M Previews

 

I'll go with $9M-$10M previews 

So ~$9.5M sounds right to me

 

$55M-$65M OW feels like the range (would probably lean on the higher end here)

 

I'm not sure if this can even clear Black Adam's final DOM number (using the lower end)

I was off by $200K, but S/O to @Porthos and @M37 for calling $9.7M early yesterday. Hopefully we can get some IM analysis from the Think tank today

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Elemental MTC1 Previews Final - 45367/341483 661617.29 2521 shows

 

~2.4m previews. 

I was off on the Flash as it over indexed way more than even what I expected. At least was on point for Elemental :-)

[Joyous Legion]

28 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I was off by $200K, but S/O to @Porthos and @M37 for calling $9.7M early yesterday. Hopefully we can get some IM analysis from the Think tank today

9.7M on Mon and not even a shoutout 😔

[keysersoze123]

On 6/13/2023 at 11:47 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Oppenheimer MTC1 

Previews - 25374/261183 511551.28 1285 shows

Friday - 20820/475484 407674.66 2275 shows

 

 

Oppenheimer MTC1 

Previews -  27419/263874 550493.27 1309 shows

Friday - 22686/478853 442784.46 2305 shows

 

It still in chugging along really well. I think pace is still quite good for this point in presales cycle. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Sound of Freedom	T-17	Jax	5	21	181	181	1,622	11.16%
		Phx	6	35	325	325	2,511	12.94%
		Ral	6	19	190	190	2,039	9.32%
	Total		17	75	696	696	6,172	11.28%

 

Sound of Freedom T-17 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .639x (2.107m)

 

I think "I Heard the Bells" will be in the same range once I get to T-15 (it was ~350 at that point).  

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Oppenheimer MTC1 

Previews -  27419/263874 550493.27 1309 shows

Friday - 22686/478853 442784.46 2305 shows

 

It still in chugging along really well. I think pace is still quite good for this point in presales cycle. 

 

The worry I have here, and maybe "worry" is a strong word, is the same worry I have with Oppenheimer when it comes to Sacramento, if not to the same degree: Over-performing in major metro markets.  MTC1 in particular has a few reasons to over-perform versus other MTCs/smaller outfits, IMO.

 

Now it must be said, at some point the data is the data.  Oppenheimer is showing surprising strength while in bottom of the U curve of pre-sales and that has to be noted.  Just don't really know how well, ya know? 

Edited June 16, 2023 by Porthos

[MrPink]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

The worry I have here, and maybe "worry" is a strong word, is the same worry I have with Oppenheimer when it comes to Sacramento, if not to the same degree: Over-performing in major metro markets.  MTC1 in particular has a few reasons to over-perform versus other MTCs/smaller outfits, IMO.

 

Now it must be said, at some point the data is the data.  Oppenheimer is showing surprising strength while in bottom of the U curve of previews and that has to be noted.  Just don't really know how well, ya know? 

 

Take that damn logic outta here and roll with the 50m+ vibes

[WrathOfHan]

"Ohhhhhh Oppenheimer won't even hit 30M; it's a bomb for the ages!!!"