The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[MysteryMovieMogul]

My local theater has no tickets sold for MI7 on Thurday previews. Our theater also has a Monday, July 10th preview night with absolutely no tickets sold, either. Uh, this movie might bomb.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Anecdotal, of course but living in NY I hit the AMC Lincoln Square for the opening night blockbusters or indie releases-- Indy 5 is doing either "substantially" worse than every blockbuster this summer so far (Guardians, Spiderverse, Flash) or on par (Transformers). A big movie like this opening Thursday should be well over 50% in both Dolby and IMAX..

[el sid]

6 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Okay, see, this is what confuses me. I see numbers, I see stats, and then I see "not true IMO" which is commentary.

That means that this theatre shows several shows as sold out and you can't click on it or buy tickets.

And then, a few days later, all seats are available.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

Just now, el sid said:

That means that this theatre shows several shows as sold out and you can't click on it or buy tickets.

And then, a few days later, all seats are available.

 

Oh, gotcha. Didn't understand what that meant, now I do. This, mixed with the underwhelming hype of MI7, and Oppenheimer/Barbie really are the only hopes of a not-as-depressing summer box office.

[filmlover]

Important that everyone keep in mind that this is going to be a 5 day holiday weekend with folks enjoying extra time off on Monday and Tuesday (4th of July/). It's possible Indiana Jones might (will?) underperform but also that it might be more backloaded than would otherwise be the case, especially given the age of this particular franchise (and Ford himself).

Edited June 27, 2023 by filmlover

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

My local theater has no tickets sold for MI7 on Thurday previews. Our theater also has a Monday, July 10th preview night with absolutely no tickets sold, either. Uh, this movie might bomb.

Is your theater Every theater USA or something?

[LegionWrex]

Just now, filmlover said:

Important that everyone keep in mind that is going to be 5 day holiday weekend with folks enjoying extra time off on Monday and Tuesday (4th of July). It's possible Indiana Jones might (will?) underperform but also that it might be more backloaded than would otherwise be the case, especially given the age of this particular franchise (and Ford himself).

It's also Canada Day on the 1st up here so I suspect that will also skew some things (albeit not much cause Canada ain't so much but a blip tbh).

[MysteryMovieMogul]

8 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Is your theater Every theater USA or something?

No, but when even the Orlando theater numbers are, as of now, worse than RotB, and when Oppenheimer, at my same theater, already has four tickets sold and comes out 10 days later, you start to wonder.

Edited June 27, 2023 by MysteryMovieMogul
RotB, not Ruby Gillman. I'm so dumb!

[TheFlatLannister]

16 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

My local theater has no tickets sold for MI7 on Thurday previews. Our theater also has a Monday, July 10th preview night with absolutely no tickets sold, either. Uh, this movie might bomb.

Mi7 is not going to breakout like some hoped. $80M five day seems more likely than $100M+ five day. OS gross is probably going to be lower than Mi6 because of China

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

No, but when even the Orlando theater numbers are, as of now, worse than Ruby Gillman, and when Oppenheimer, at my same theater, already has four tickets sold and comes out 10 days later, you start to wonder.

Ruby gillman is outselling mi okay there is something funky about orlando theaters i think. we do this with every mi movie and they turn out fine. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Ruby gillman is outselling mi okay there is something funky about orlando theaters i think. we do this with every mi movie and they turn out fine. 

I meant RotB. My eyes saw the R and got trigger happy.

[excel1]

Story of summer will no doubt be runaway budgets. Flash, Indiana Jones, and MI budgets are just nuts. 

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Mi7 is not going to breakout like some hoped. $80M five day seems more likely than $100M+ five day. OS gross is probably going to be lower than Mi6 because of China

Really not trying to go down the doom and gloom route but what the hell is going on? Old men can only see one movie in a month and that movie is Oppenheimer i guess. I plan to see Indy, MI and Oppenheimer. It can be done. 

[emoviefan]

12 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

I meant RotB. My eyes saw the R and got trigger happy.

Im sorry if there is more excitement for a transformers movie than a Mission Movie something is wrong  with moviegoers right now. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Mission Impossible fatigue. I knew people were insane expecting a Top Gun bump but that was a nostalgia sequel with borderline groundbreaking aerial photography. It was broadly digestible and appealing without limiting an audience. This is the 7th Mission Impossible movie and already being hyped as a Part One with talks of it still continuing afterwards. And I don't think the marketing is moving the needle or promising anything new the way the last few films have (and the way something like John Wick 4 did)

 

The sales appear solid around me but nothing indicating a major breakout bump

[Bob Train]

13 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Story of summer will no doubt be runaway budgets. Flash, Indiana Jones, and MI budgets are just nuts. 

200m for a CBM is really nothing out of the ordinary. TLM and Fast X in particular has much more inflated budgets

[filmlover]

Mission: Impossible seems to be a franchise that has likely peaked in terms of ticket sales given how old the series is. The first movie came out during Clinton's first term! Plus it's been five years since the previous movie came out.

 

That said, there's no denying the franchise has had a pretty good run overall when you consider that it appeared to be done after the third movie was mostly greeted with a shrug upon release. Aside from Fast & Furious, hard to think of many franchises that rebounded from obituary-worthy numbers.

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Mission Impossible fatigue. I knew people were insane expecting a Top Gun bump but that was a nostalgia sequel with borderline groundbreaking aerial photography. It was broadly digestible and appealing without limiting an audience. This is the 7th Mission Impossible movie and already being hyped as a Part One with talks of it still continuing afterwards. And I don't think the marketing is moving the needle or promising anything new the way the last few films have (and the way something like John Wick 4 did)

 

The sales appear solid around me but nothing indicating a major breakout bump

Yeah I never expected a major Halo affect  from TG Maverick either but if Fast 10 if can open to almost 70 million this should easily beat that because that screams Fatigue way more than Mission. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

26 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah I never expected a major Halo affect  from TG Maverick either but if Fast 10 if can open to almost 70 million this should easily beat that because that screams Fatigue way more than Mission. 

Fast and Furious does have major fatigue and has been suffering from it. F8 opened to nearly 100m and the Fast X OW is less than what F9 did. This 60-70 range seems to be where the floor has fallen. (F9 did 70m. Hobbs and Shaw did 60m.)

 

Fallout's 61.2m is the highest OW for a Mission movie (3 day of course). And that was higher than the 55.5m of Rogue Nation. The previous high was M2's 57.8m. If M7 didn't have a 5day opening, the 3day OW would probably be around the same range too of 55-60m. (I would have predicted closer to 65m, though)

[DAJK]

Anecdotal, and perhaps the July 21 releases are just more pre-sale heavy, but I’ve been sampling theatres across Canada’s biggest cities for the past hour, and pretty consistently Oppenheimer AND Barbie have both sold far more tickets for Thursday than Indy has sold even 2 days out, and that MI7 has sold. 
 

A few possibilities. These movies are just social media beasts, and are going to be insanely presale heavy. OR we could be looking at 2 massive openings on the same weekend (like, 60M+ apiece… Oppenheimer is catnip for Boomers and GenX). OR we are in for 2 massive bombs/disappointments with Indy and MI7.

 

Another trend. Across the weekend (Thursday-Sunday) Barbie is ahead of Oppenheimer in terms of # tickets sold on the West Coast/Toronto, but everywhere else Oppenheimer is ahead. Wonder if this will translate to the US (LA/NYC heavily skewed Barbie, but flyover US will be more Oppenheimer).