The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

I think Morbius did ok considering the horrible reviews/reactions. Next 2 weekends look like doing better than tracking. Sonic 2 will be backloaded. Whatever I could see OD PS well ahead of Previews PS. Definitely thinking 60m+. Even FB3 looks like doing better than what I thought some time ago though there is still time and hopefully reviews are not so bad. 

 

The coming week Dr Strange 2 PS is starting. hopefully @ZackM will provide tracking data for Alpha. MTC2 have been pain to track for sure but I will try to get some data though wont be able to track final number as its taking too long as things stand. 

[ViewerAnon]

2 hours ago, Eric the Living Vampire said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	598	15949	3.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 69

 

Comp

0.566x of Shang-Chi T-11 (4.98M)

0.900x of No Time to Die T-11 (5.67M)
0.795x of Dune T-11 (4.05M)

0.351x of Eternals T-11 (3.33M)

1.137x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-11 (5.11M)

 

THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD made $9.1M in previews for a $62.1M weekend. If the high-end NO TIME TO DIE comparison bore out, the same ratio would give THE SECRETS OF DUMBLEDORE $38.6M. FBAWTFT's $8.8M/$74.4M would get TSOD to $47.9M.

 

But that was pre-Covid, who knows how pre-sale heavy it will be with the longer gap, all the usual asterisks.

[Porthos]

2pm previews probably puts a minor thumb on the scale as well with FB3.

 

Mind, I'm not seeing as many post 10pm showtimes as normal, so maybe it's a bit of a wash.  Still more potential showtimes on Thr should depress the internal multiplies for the OW.

 

[Legion Again]

Might want to check out easter IMs specifically too.

[Porthos]

On 4/2/2022 at 11:47 PM, Porthos said:

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	22503	23260	757	3.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

54

 

T-12 Comps

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	65.88		85	1149		0/101	15853/17002	6.76%		5847	12.95%		5.80m
NTTD	93.23		32	812		0/135	20447/21259	3.82%		7712	9.82%		5.78m
Dune	107.99		55	701		0/75	11130/11831	5.93%		2915	25.97%		5.51m
GB:A	188.78		37	401		0/108	16294/16695	2.40%		3034	24.95%		8.50m
Morbius	101.61		54	745		0/127	17997/18742	3.98%		3477	21.77%		5.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

PRE-SALE NOTE: No Time to Die tickets had been on sale for four days more than Secrets of Dumbledore has been at this at this point in tracking while Shang-Chi, Dune. Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and Morbius's tickets have all been on sale for one more day than FB3.

  

Regal:      120/5540  [2.17% sold]
Matinee:    42/3307  [1.27% | 5.55% of all tickets sold]

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	22435	23263*	828	3.56%

*NOTE: One theater adjusted its seat maps resulting in three more seats available region wide.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

71

 

T-11 Comps

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	67.81		72	1221		0/101	15781/17002	7.18%		5847	14.16%		5.97m
NTTD	94.52		64	876		0/134	20340/21216	4.13%		7712	10.74%		5.86m
Dune	110.84		46	747		0/75	11084/11831	6.31%		2915	28.40%		5.65m
GB:A	192.11		30	431		0/108	16261/16692	2.58%		3034	27.29%		8.65m
Morbius	104.55		47	792		0/127	17950/18742	4.23%		3477	23.81%		5.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: No Time to Die tickets had been on sale for four days more than Secrets of Dumbledore has been at this at this point in tracking while Shang-Chi, Dune. Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and Morbius's tickets have all been on sale for one more day than FB3.

  

Regal:      128/5540  [2.31% sold]
Matinee:    49/3307  [1.48% | 5.92% of all tickets sold]

Edited April 6, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 4/2/2022 at 11:48 PM, Porthos said:

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	92	11748	12937	1189	9.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

145

 

T-5 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	194.92		56	610		0/87	14514/15124	4.03%		2352	50.55%		7.99m
SC	55.43		183	2145		0/113	15466/17611	12.18%		5847	20.34%		4.88m
LTBC	59.21		183	2008		0/173	26190/28198	7.12%		7712	15.42%		6.87m
GB:A	129.24		122	920		0/117	16629/17549	5.24%		5847	20.34%		5.82m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

T-5 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	68.49		113	1606		0/89	11878/13484	11.91%		4407	24.96%		5.09m
Sonic (adj)	---		119	1100		0/80	9818/10918	10.08%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 0.94371x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [4.6m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday sales:    328/1700   [19.29% sold]   +31 tickets]
Thursday sales:      861/11237   [7.66% sold]   +114 tickets]
---    
Regal:      201/3088  [6.51% sold]
Matinee:    70/2387  [2.93% | 5.89% of all tickets sold]

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	92	11557	12918*	1361	10.54%

*NOTE: Corrected an error on one seat map, resulting in 19 fewer seats available region wide.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

172

 

T-4 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	181.23		141	751		0/87	14373/15124	4.97%		2352	57.87%		7.43m
SC	56.57		261	2406		0/113	15205/17611	13.66%		5847	23.28%		4.98m
LTBC	55.30		453	2461		0/183	26301/28762	8.56%		7712	17.65%		6.42m
GB:A	136.78		75	995		0/117	16554/17549	5.67%		5847	23.28%		6.16m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	75.36		200	1806		0/89	11678/13484	13.39%		4407	28.80%		5.22m
Sonic (adj)	---		169	1269		0/80	9630/10899	11.64%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 0.99278x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-4 [4.8m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday sales:    400/1701   [23.52% sold]   +72 tickets]
Thursday sales:       961/11217   [8.57% sold]   +100 tickets]
---    
Regal:      218/3088  [7.06% sold]
Matinee:    89/2387  [3.73% | 6.54% of all tickets sold]

Edited April 5, 2022 by Porthos

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

Hmn. Kinda sad for Ambulance.

 

Predictions to what is doing more next weekend between Ambulance and Morbius 2nd weekend? 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I want to see more presales for Ambulance, but even with a very possible near 70% drop..Morbius will be around 11.7m- 12.4m. Ambulance can sadly be like 8m with 12m looking like best bet? 

[Noctis]

Encouraging news for FB3.

 

My prediction all along for the movie has been 45/115. Anything over $50m would be a big win.

[MadGoose]

I think what a lot of people might not be considering is how positive the reactions are for The Secrets of Dumbledore.  There's no reason for it to change considering how many of them make a point of saying it's the best of the three (which is a tall order imo), and it's interesting to see quite a few saying it restored their faith into the series. So positive reviews could only help.

 

So it'll likely open lower than CoG, which makes total sense due to the pandemic, but its legs and WOM will likely be far far better than CoG. Seems like it's going to be a crowdpleaser. By the way, tracking isn't taking into account the early screenings (like IMAX) I'm guessing? I've been seeing that the IMAX ones have been selling out fast.

Edited April 4, 2022 by MadGoose

[YM!]

22 hours ago, YourMother said:

Sonic The Hedgehog 2 (4 days before previews, 5 before release)

4/3/22

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, Wi

 

3:00 - 13/301

4:15 - 4/146

6:30 - 10/301

7:15 - 9/146

Comparisons: 

38.7% of Toy Story 4 ($4.64M previews/$46.8M OW)

81.8% of Aladdin ($5.72M previews/$74.86M OW)

128.6% of Pokémon: Detective Pikachu ($7.32M previews/$69.9M (nice) OW)

171.4% on Onward ($3.42M previews/$66.86M OW)

 

All of these comparisons are pre-COVID but they suggest really good numbers around $65m-70m with an average of $5.275M as I especially like the Aladdin and Pikachu comparisons so long as it continues to hold. However, I’m going about my gut this time with it, while I think previews wise it makes sense and my gospel for a theater in Wisconsin shouldn’t be an apt comparison but I’ve been getting Lego Batman and Pikachu vibes from it for the past few weeks now. I think if $60m was likely or even $55m+, it’d be at 50 tickets sold here. Especially when Sonic will probably skew older and male-er than most of these comparisons, alongside the kind of numbers @Porthos has been seeing in one of the biggest movie markets. 36 is respectable but I do worry about the bump leading up to this Tuesday. I’m thinking $45m-$55m with around $4.5M-$5.0M in previews.

Hmmmm, Sonic had a pretty decent bump last night, currently at 47 tickets. I won’t do another update until like afternoon Tuesday but if Sonic 2 does like 52-57 tickets by the time of Tuesday as now my comparisons are Onward and Aladdin (as Pikachu was never recorded T-2 due to a site update/outage), I think I’ll feel confident in over $55m-$60m.

[Noiret Jak]

I think many will be surprised at Dumbledore's ability to be a more fun, family-friendly adventure movie than the latter, there's a way it casts a wide net.

I still see a smaller weekender than CoG but sturdier legs.

53m$/140m$.

Edited April 4, 2022 by Noiret Jak

[YM!]

Might also throw in some reports from Menomonee Falls Cinema. It’s one of the biggest in my state, according to our number god.
 

Also will say this, I think The Bad Guys might be slightly underestimated. I don’t see $30m+ but I don’t see $10m-$15m. $17m-$25m would be my guess, it’s doing really well at Menomonee Falls, and if I compared between theaters, it’d be one of the better selling family films.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-11	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	53	10,314	215	38	2.08%
		Phoenix	6	43	8,541	230	20	2.69%
		Raleigh	8	41	5,253	310	35	5.90%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		20	137	24,108	755	93	3.13%
T-3	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	115	10	12.21%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	92	2	44.23%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	39	11	14.94%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	246	23	17.43%
T-4	Ambulance	Jacksonville	6	14	2,457	7	2	0.28%
		Phoenix	6	12	2,309	26	6	1.13%
		Raleigh	8	10	1,163	19	3	1.63%
	Ambulance Total		20	36	5,929	52	11	0.88%
T-4	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	40	6,196	231	44	3.73%
		Phoenix	6	23	4,080	288	34	7.06%
		Raleigh	8	25	3,364	255	23	7.58%
	Sonic Total		20	88	13,640	774	101	5.67%

 

Sonic 2 T-4 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Ghostbusters - .96x (4m)

 - Uncharted - missed

 - F9 - .62x (4.43m)

 - Lost City - 3.23x (8.06m)

 

Here's how Sonic is performing against more similar movies:

 - Boss Baby - 10.6x (13.89m)

 - Peter Rabbit - 11.38x (10.244m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.79x (10.244m)

 - Encanto - 4.78x (7.167m)

 

I don't know where this will end up, but sales are looking really good so far.

 

Ambulance T-4 comps

 - Snake Eyes - .41x (569k)

 - Resident Evil - .51x (481k)

 - Green Knight - .81x (609k)

 

Sonic 2 EA T-3 comp

 - Sing 2 EA - .39x

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-11 comps

 - Shang Chi - .937x (8.24m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.732x (7.186m)

 - NTTD - 1.66x (8.63m)

 - F9 - 1.01x (7.195m)

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-10	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	53	10,314	254	39	2.46%
		Phoenix	6	43	8,541	245	15	2.87%
		Raleigh	8	41	5,253	341	31	6.49%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		20	137	24,108	840	85	3.48%
T-2	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	128	13	13.59%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	119	27	57.21%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	58	19	22.22%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	305	59	21.62%
T-3	Ambulance	Jacksonville	6	14	2,457	9	2	0.37%
		Phoenix	6	12	2,309	29	3	1.26%
		Raleigh	8	10	1,163	22	3	1.89%
	Ambulance Total		20	36	5,929	60	8	1.01%
T-3	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	40	6,196	269	38	4.34%
		Phoenix	6	23	4,080	342	54	8.38%
		Raleigh	8	25	3,364	274	19	8.15%
	Sonic Total		20	88	13,640	885	111	6.49%

 

Sonic 2 T-3 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Ghostbusters - .97x (4.01m)

 - Uncharted - 1.31x (4.84m)

 - F9 - .61x (4.34m)

 - Lost City - 3.24x (8.1m)

 

Here's how Sonic is performing against more similar movies:

 - Boss Baby - 8.85x (11.59m)

 - Peter Rabbit - 10.17x (9.155m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.7x (9.997m)

 - Encanto - 4.63x (6.95m)

 

I don't know where this will end up, but sales are looking really good so far.

 

Ambulance T-3 comps

 - Snake Eyes - .36x (509k)

 - Resident Evil - .536x (501k)

 - Green Knight - .69x (517k)

 

These three comps are converging around 500k; let's see if it can pick up any momentum this week.

 

Sonic 2 EA T-2 comp

 - Sing 2 EA - .41x

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-10 comps

 - Shang Chi - .978x (8.605m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.776x (7.37m)

 - NTTD - 1.78x (9.254m)

 - F9 - 1.04x (7.381m)

 

Increased against all four comps again

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/30/2022 at 9:42 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Took a look at the 10 IMAX shows for FB2 on 4/6.  Sales are looking pretty good - I'd expect most of these to sell out.

 

Movie	Theaters	Sold	Capacity	% Sold	Sales
Secrets of Dumbledore	10	2,621	3,634	72.12%	$58,899.97

 

Movie	Theaters	Sold	Capacity	% Sold	Sales
Secrets of Dumbledore	10	3,000	3,634	82.55%	$66,782.88

 

Half of the shows are nearly sold out (0-10 tickets available).  

[earthtne]

2 hours ago, Noiret Jak said:

I think many will be surprised at Dumbledore's ability to be a more fun, family-friendly adventure movie than the latter

Having seen it, I do not agree. At least on the “fun, family-friendly angle”. Not in comparison to any actual “family” movie. Too dark and convoluted still. This kind of perception is still a problem for this brand i think - hopes for cute kids entertainment are butting heads with the reality of the stories Rowling writes, and so people go in thinking “cute beasts movie” and then go “wait, what? Infanticide, WWII imagery, and child abuse?”
 

But, that’s kind of the Potter brand at this point. 

Edited April 4, 2022 by earthtne

[earthtne]

3 hours ago, earthtne said:

Having seen it, I do not agree. At least on the “fun, family-friendly angle”. Not in comparison to any actual “family” movie. Too dark and convoluted still. This kind of perception is still a problem for this brand i think - hopes for cute kids entertainment are butting heads with the reality of the stories Rowling writes, and so people go in thinking “cute beasts movie” and then go “wait, what? Infanticide, WWII imagery, and child abuse?”
 

But, that’s kind of the Potter brand at this point. 

I’m going to guess the person reacting to my post with a confused Winona Ryder emoji doesn’t know Crimes of Grindelwald has two infanticides, WWII imagery, and magical rape-and-revenge as a backstory? 
 

It’s outright comedic that the general consensus is still trying to sell this IP as “a family franchise! Very G rated! Fun for all the kids!”. Lol, like, when?

[Eric is Anxious]

Moderation

 

@earthtne This isn't the Fantastic Beasts thread. I get you're mad people are calling it a kid's movie (which is something we've seen one specific poster do ever since 2016. A little suspicious if you ask me), but it's getting super off-topic.

[earthtne]

8 minutes ago, Eric the Living Vampire said:

Moderation

 

@earthtne This isn't the Fantastic Beasts thread. I get you're mad people are calling it a kid's movie (which is something we've seen one specific poster do ever since 2016. A little suspicious if you ask me), but it's getting super off-topic.

Um…okay? That imputation aside, no, I’m not “mad”. I’m pointing out how the content of the series is not what I’d consider “pure, fun, light, family-friendly adventure material”, and I think it’s Cinemascore and audience reception will continue to suffer if that’s how it’s sold. Everyone from Grace Randolph to Forbes to the LA Times has discussed how this “kiddie” reputation conflicts with the adult nature of the stories Rowling is writing - which presents problems for this series’ mainstream potential. It’s just not necessarily “family fantasy IP” material, no matter how much some people want to selectively attend to the 5-minute Niffler appearance. 

Edited April 4, 2022 by earthtne

[Noctis]

4 hours ago, earthtne said:

Having seen it, I do not agree. At least on the “fun, family-friendly angle”. Not in comparison to any actual “family” movie. Too dark and convoluted still. This kind of perception is still a problem for this brand i think - hopes for cute kids entertainment are butting heads with the reality of the stories Rowling writes, and so people go in thinking “cute beasts movie” and then go “wait, what? Infanticide, WWII imagery, and child abuse?”
 

But, that’s kind of the Potter brand at this point. 

 

LMFAO