Jump to content

Cap

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

By Cap, in Numbers and Data

Recommended Posts

Recommended

Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
Recommended by Shawn Robbins
  • Thanks
  • Like

14 reactions

Go to this post
Recommended

Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

Recommended by XXRDJisDoctorDoom

  • Disbelief
  • Haha
  • Thanks
  • Like

17 reactions

Go to this post


katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 4/8/2022 at 3:49 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sls Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-27 Doctor Strange 2 PLF 58 984 4,509 11,808 38.19% $16.01 $72,196.31
    Standard 100 1,061 2,780 12,822 21.68% $12.22 $33,961.13
  DS2 Total   158 2,045 7,289 24,630 29.59% $14.56 $106,157.44
T-6 FB3 PLF 25 84 522 6,066 8.61% $14.72 $7,683.08
    Standard 44 55 280 5,971 4.69% $11.58 $3,243.17
  FB3 Total   69 139 802 12,037 6.66% $13.62 $10,926.25

 

Matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sls Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-27 Doctor Strange 2 N 116 1,638 6,237 17,847 34.95% $15.04 $93,790.36
    Y 42 407 1,052 6,783 15.51% $11.76 $12,367.08
  DS2 Total   158 2,045 7,289 24,630 29.59% $14.56 $106,157.44
T-6 FB3 N 49 136 750 8,301 9.04% $13.84 $10,379.57
    Y 20 3 52 3,736 1.39% $10.51 $546.68
  FB3 Total   69 139 802 12,037 6.66% $13.62 $10,926.25

 

Only comp I have for today is No Way Home for DS2 through two days of sales

 

NWH - .53x (26.51m)

Santikos Tracking

 

Format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New* Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-24 Doctor Strange 2 PLF 58 232 4,741 11,808 40.15% $15.98 $75,739.43
    Standard 100 332 3,112 12,822 24.27% $12.19 $37,921.46
  DS 2 Total   158 564 7,853 24,630 31.88% $14.47 $113,660.89
T-3 FB3 PLF 25 165 687 6,066 11.33% $14.74 $10,129.45
    Standard 44 143 423 5,971 7.08% $11.65 $4,929.76
  FB3 Total   69 308 1,110 12,037 9.22% $13.57 $15,059.21

 

Matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New* Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-24 Doctor Strange 2 N 116 450 6,687 17,847 37.47% $14.95 $100,002.68
    Y 42 114 1,166 6,783 17.19% $11.71 $13,658.21
  DS 2 Total   158 564 7,853 24,630 31.88% $14.47 $113,660.89
T-3 FB3 N 49 263 1,013 8,301 12.20% $13.89 $14,067.61
    Y 20 45 97 3,736 2.60% $10.22 $991.60
  FB3 Total   69 308 1,110 12,037 9.22% $13.57 $15,059.21

 

*New sales are since Friday afternoon run

 

FB3 T-3 comps

 - Morbius - 1.178x (6.72m)

 - No Way Home - .065x (3.24m)

 - Batman (Thu only) - .24x (4.23m)

 - Batman + EA - .22x (4.74m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu only) - 1.486x (7.4m)

 - Sonic 2 + EA - .968x (6.05m)

 - Ambulance - 555x (388.5m)

 

DS2 Comps

 - Spider-Man (5 days) - .553x (27.66m)

 - Batman (Final count) - .991x (21.4m)

 - Morbius (Final count) - 3.986x (22.72m)

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites


TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted

For Fantasic Beasts 3, I went back to this Variety article about Crimes of Grindelwald, and this will not play like a family movie at all...here was the age demo breakdown vs normal Harry Potter movies...

 

"That proved true yet again with “Crimes of Grindelwald” as 69% of moviegoers were over the age of 25, and only 14% of audience members were under 18 years old. That’s even slightly older than the first “Fantastic Beasts” entry, where 65% of ticket buyers were older than 25 years old and 18% were under the age of 18.  For comparison, well over 50% of crowds for every “Harry Potter” movie were teens and younger."

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/fantastic-beasts-box-office-harry-potter-audience-1203031881/

 

And from Deadline on other demos...

 

"Demo range on the film was comprised of 54% Caucasian, 18% Hispanic, 19% Asian, & 9% African-American. Kids enjoyed it more than parents, 89% to 83%. Updated exits show that the crowd was 52% female, with 52% over 25."

 

https://deadline.com/2018/11/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-weekend-box-office-opening-widows-viola-davis-green-book-1202503142/

 

Not as heavy a female/male skew, but it does skew heavily Caucasian, so some of the more diverse big cities may lag behind in presales.

 

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites


katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 4/8/2022 at 12:52 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day Movie Area TC Shows Seats Sold New % Sold
T-13 The Bad Guys Jacksonville 6 26 3,134 7 7 0.22%
    Phoenix 5 14 1,973 0 0 0.00%
    Raleigh 7 14 1,367 12 12 0.88%
  The Bad Guys Total   18 54 6,474 19 19 0.29%
T-13 The Northman Jacksonville 6 13 1,827 21 21 1.15%
    Phoenix 4 8 1,037 19 19 1.83%
    Raleigh 6 6 675 16 16 2.37%
  The Northman Total   16 27 3,539 56 56 1.58%
T-27 Doctor Strange 2 Jacksonville 7 152 24,062 2,120 353 8.81%
    Phoenix 6 131 19,512 2,294 290 11.76%
    Raleigh 8 123 14,863 2,543 311 17.11%
  Doctor Strange 2 Total   21 406 58,437 6,957 954 11.91%
T-4 Father Stu Jacksonville 6 15 1,466 33 33 2.25%
    Phoenix 5 14 1,235 34 34 2.75%
    Raleigh 7 14 1,516 23 23 1.52%
  Father Stu Total   18 43 4,217 90 90 2.13%
T-6 Fantastic Beasts 3 Jacksonville 6 59 11,329 433 43 3.82%
    Phoenix 6 47 9,233 389 37 4.21%
    Raleigh 8 42 5,332 485 39 9.10%
  Fantastic Beasts 3 Total   20 148 25,894 1,307 119 5.05%

 

Father Stu T-4 comps

 - House of Gucci - .523x (680k)

 - Stillwater - 4.28x (1.2m)

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-6 comps

 - Shang Chi - 1x (8.85m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - missed

 - F9 - 1.25x (8.9m)

 

DS2 2-day sales comps

 - Spider Man - .45x (22.33m)

 - Batman + EA - missed

Day Movie Area TC Shows Seats Sold New % Sold
T-1 Father Stu (Tue) Jacksonville 6 15 1,466 52 19 3.55%
    Phoenix 5 14 1,235 50 16 4.05%
    Raleigh 7 14 1,516 35 12 2.31%
  Father Stu (Tue) Total   18 43 4,217 137 47 3.25%
T-10 The Bad Guys Jacksonville 6 26 3,134 6 -1 0.19%
    Phoenix 5 14 1,973 7 7 0.35%
    Raleigh 7 14 1,367 24 12 1.76%
  The Bad Guys Total   18 54 6,474 37 18 0.57%
T-10 The Northman Jacksonville 7 14 1,868 33 12 1.77%
    Phoenix 4 8 1,037 34 15 3.28%
    Raleigh 6 6 675 27 11 4.00%
  The Northman Total   17 28 3,580 94 38 2.63%
T-24 Doctor Strange 2 Jacksonville 7 152 24,062 2,339 219 9.72%
    Phoenix 6 131 19,512 2,578 284 13.21%
    Raleigh 8 124 14,960 2,832 289 18.93%
  Doctor Strange 2 Total   21 407 58,534 7,749 792 13.24%
T-3 Fantastic Beasts 3 Jacksonville 6 59 11,329 634 201 5.60%
    Phoenix 7 52 9,573 597 208 6.24%
    Raleigh 8 42 5,332 646 161 12.12%
  Fantastic Beasts 3 Total   21 153 26,234 1,877 570 7.15%

 


Father Stu T-1 comps

 - House of Gucci - .377x (491k)

 - Stillwater - 2.91x (816k)

 - WSS - .74x (592x)

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-3 comps

 - Shang Chi - 1.03x (9.09m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.05x (8.51m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - F9 - 1.3x (9.2m)

 - Dune - 1.59x (8.12m)

 

Northman T-10 comps

 - Green Knight - 4.95x (3.71m)

 - Ghostbusters - .199x (825k)

 - Morbius - .153x (874k)

 

Bad Guys T-10 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .088x (438k)

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 1.44x (13.7m)

 - Shang-Chi - 1.89x (16.64m)

 - Black Widow - 1.05x (13.89m)

 - No Way Home - .223x (11.17m)

 

DS2 pace still looks really good.   Not sure why my FB3 comps are so much higher than others, but I'm not complaining.   I'm sure it will level out in the next few days.

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

re: FB3.

 

It's hard to say.  I wasn't in love with its Sun number locally, but at the same time it wasn't a catastrophic one compared to Ghostbusters: Afterlife (which admittedly does seem like something of an aberration). On the other hand, No Time to Die ain't exactly a good omen.  Did discover I didn't update the Morbius data which shifted the comp from 7.86m to 7.12m.  Which is still one of its better comps, mind.  

 

I mean, anything starting with a "7" on Thursday wouldn't completely shock me, but right now I'm still mentally in the low-to-mid 6s.  I think I'll have a better idea tonight as I start to see the pace of week-of data tonight, but even here the historical pattern of pre-sale buying for HP/FB movies can't be ignored which is why the GB:A comp ain't really as useful and the NTTD comp troubling (though, Morbius is a contra-example).

 

Ultimately I just think FB3 has a slightly wider range at this time than normal simply because it isn't fully acting like a HP/FB movie when it comes to its pre-sale pattern.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites




katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted

Day Movie Area TC Shows Seats Sold New % Sold
T-10 TUWoMT Jacksonville 7 12 1,550 2 2 0.13%
    Phoenix 1 2 228 0 0 0.00%
    Raleigh 7 9 1,004 4 4 0.40%
  TUWoMT Total   15 23 2,782 6 6 0.22%
T-2 TUWoMT (Wed EA) Jacksonville 2 2 196 38 38 19.39%
    Phoenix 1 2 230 56 56 24.35%
    Raleigh 1 1 118 17 17 14.41%
  TUWoMT (Wed EA) Total   4 5 544 111 111 20.40%
T-5 TUWoMT (Sat EA) Jacksonville 1 1 88 6 6 6.82%
    Raleigh 1 1 58 1 1 1.72%
  TUWoMT (Sat EA) Total   2 2 146 7 7 4.79%

 

This is a bit of a mess, but since there are shows starting this Wednesday I figured I would check the other days as well.  

 

T-2 EA comps
 - Lost City (EA) - 1.13x (849k) (9 shows)

 - Ghostbusters (EA) - 3.17x (1.11m) (2 shows)

 - Sonic 2 (EA) - .45x (573k) (8 shows)

 - NTTD (EA) - .44x (479k) (5 shows)

 

These are a little dicey with the multiple days of EA (Lost City had 3 days so this is comparing the T-2 for each) and differing number of shows for these areas.   I think it's on a good pace to earn 500k on Wednesday, but no idea on Saturday yet.   I just realized that I didn't include this in my showtime report, so here are the numbers

 

T-2 week previews
TUWoMT (Wed 4/13 EA) - 211 shows

TUWoMT (Sat 4/16 EA) - 119 shows

TUWoMT (Previews) - 1,488 (831 TC)

 - Ambulance - 1,183 (671)

 - X - 1,829 (1,297)

 - The 355 - 1,846 (1,191)

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites


filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, BruiseCruise said:

What are the odds Sonic 2 beats FB3 next weekend

FB3 is pretty much locked to win Friday at least due to previews. The rest of the weekend depends on what each movie makes. Keep in mind that Sonic will be seeing a nice decrease on Saturday due to Good Friday inflating the numbers across the board.

Link to comment
Share on other sites




Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1268 3886 32.63%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 905 3590 25.21%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 2 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
5796 316 38261 15.15% 15 266

 

AMCs sold 3612
Cinemarks sold 917
Regals sold 752
Harkins sold 515

 

0.669x Batman Final (14.45M)

0.250x NWH Final (12.50M)

1.30x Eternals Final (12.35M)

1.43x Shang-Chi Final (12.58M)

0.911x Black Widow Final (12.03M)

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1288 3886 33.14%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 916 3590 25.52%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
5945 149 38261 15.54% 15 266

 

AMCs sold 3682
Cinemarks sold 950
Regals sold 775
Harkins sold 538

 

0.686x Batman Final (14.82M)

0.257x NWH Final (12.84M)

1.34x Eternals Final (12.69M)

1.47x Shang-Chi Final (12.97M)
0.934x Black Widow Final (12.33M)

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-25 Thursday(169 showings): 5881(+466)/42996

0.548x Batman Final (11.84M)

0.179x NWH Final (8.95M)

 

T-26 Friday(279 showings): 2751(+274)/71512

0.251x Batman Final (8.79M)

0.080x NWH Final (6.40M)

 

T-27 Saturday(288 showings): 1382(+158)/71920

0.126x Batman Final (5.45M)

0.040x NWH Final (3.34M)

 

T-28 Sunday(265 showings): 330(+84)/67700

 

Forgot to add in the Tuesday showings to the final Batman Thursday numbers last time.

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-24 Thursday(169 showings): 6087(+206)/42996

0.568x Batman Final (12.26M)

0.186x NWH Final (9.28M)

 

T-25 Friday(279 showings): 2896(+145)/71512

0.264x Batman Final (9.26M)

0.094x NWH Final (6.74M)

 

T-26 Saturday(288 showings): 1487(+105)/71920

0.136x Batman Final (5.86M)

0.049x NWH Final (3.59M)

 

T-27 Sunday(265 showings): 347(+17)/67700

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-25 Thursday(205 showings): 13399(+639)/30280 ATP: $15.24

0.628x Batman Final (13.56M)

0.345x NWH Final (17.25M)

 

T-26 Friday(280 showings): 10431(+831)/41170 ATP: $15.24

0.361x Batman Final (12.62M)

0.244x NWH Final (17.55M)

 

T-27 Saturday(286 showings): 10363(+1063)/42330 ATP: $14.70

0.298x Batman Final (12.90M)

0.206x NWH Final (15.22M)

 

T-28 Sunday(270 showings): 4235(+654)/40026 ATP: $14.30

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-24 Thursday(205 showings): 13690(+291)/30280 ATP: $15.24

0.641x Batman Final (13.85M)

0.353x NWH Final (17.64M)

 

T-25 Friday(280 showings): 10774(+343)/41170 ATP: $15.23

0.373x Batman Final (13.04M)

0.253x NWH Final (18.16M)

 

T-26 Saturday(286 showings): 10717(+354)/42330 ATP: $14.70

0.308x Batman Final (13.34M)

0.213x NWH Final (15.74M)

 

T-27 Sunday(270 showings): 4518(+283)/40026 ATP: $14.29

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites


CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

Posted
Posted

Low 6s for FB3 previews seems tragic tbh. I am guessing these previews start at like 2 PM and Friday is Good Friday and the Thursdays are always inflated. If an inflated Thursday can only muster low 6s I think the weekend might come in under 40M.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted
Just now, CJohn said:

Low 6s for FB3 previews seems tragic tbh. I am guessing these previews start at like 2 PM and Friday is Good Friday and the Thursdays are always inflated. If an inflated Thursday can only muster low 6s I think the weekend might come in under 40M.

 

Fantastic Beasts heading to gross 1 Morbillion this weekend (39M is 1 Morbillion aka 1 Morbius OW).

  • Like 3
  • Haha 9
  • Astonished 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept