The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

MoM just leaked, not a cam-rip, its the movie, perfectly watchable, resolution is a tiny bit low, but if you're only using a 1080p monitor then it shouldn't be much of a problem

any chance this stops it from getting to 200 million?

Nah very little impact

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

MoM just leaked, not a cam-rip, its the movie, perfectly watchable, resolution is a tiny bit low, but if you're only using a 1080p monitor then it shouldn't be much of a problem

any chance this stops it from getting to 200 million?

Zero impact.

[Ghost Mountain]

I wouldn’t be surprised if DS2 beats Civil War for the worst MCU legs. It’s about as confusing and GA-unfriendly as an mcu movie can get

[mitchellsilver]

Its not getting to $200M anyway 

[keysersoze123]

Only numbers I am able to pull.

 

Top Gun 2 Alpha 

Tuesday - 13542/52549 327323.71 228 shows

Wednesday - 5885/37106 80965.75 176 shows

Thursday previews - 29455/700905 530303.01 3594 shows

 

Thinking 2m+ tue/wed will happen. Wednesday is mostly regular digital shows and so it wont make as big an impact as what Batman had. Overall previews should cross double digits for sure. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

15 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

MoM just leaked, not a cam-rip, its the movie, perfectly watchable, resolution is a tiny bit low, but if you're only using a 1080p monitor then it shouldn't be much of a problem

any chance this stops it from getting to 200 million?

its just a good camrip , not a screener, happens to all movies

[interiorgatordecorator]

7 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

its just a good camrip , not a screener, happens to all movies

youre  right

but it's one of the best camrips ive ever seen

 

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Only numbers I am able to pull.

 

Top Gun 2 Alpha 

Tuesday - 13542/52549 327323.71 228 shows

Wednesday - 5885/37106 80965.75 176 shows

Thursday previews - 29455/700905 530303.01 3594 shows

 

Thinking 2m+ tue/wed will happen. Wednesday is mostly regular digital shows and so it wont make as big an impact as what Batman had. Overall previews should cross double digits for sure. 

Can you pull FRI?

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Can you pull FRI?

it will take too much time. @ZackM should be able to do it way faster. I hope he can look at it over the weekend. Anyway Dr Strange 2 is done. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-36 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	168	22471	23662	1191	5.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

47

 

Regal:     168/5924  [2.84% sold]
Matinee:    53/1537  [3.45% | 4.63% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-35 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	168	22423	23674	1251	5.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

60

 

Regal:     179/5920  [3.02% sold]
Matinee:    61/1535  [3.97% | 4.88% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	34292	36201	1909	5.27%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	1
Total Net Seats Added Today	82
Total Seats Sold Today	393

 

Day 2 Unadjusted Comps  SOME **REALLY** BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	405.31		78	471		0/92	13512/13983	3.37%		4407	41.16%		30.13m
NTTD	539.27		77	354		0/133	20265/20619	1.72%		3737	51.08%		33.43m
Batsy	59.01		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	16.24%		12.75m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Batman had two extra days of sales for early access showings that accounted for 475 tickets sold before the main batch of tickets were released to the public.

 

Day 2 - Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	138.16		224	1313		0/104	16873/18186	7.22%		9196	20.76%		19.10m
TG:M (adj)	---		380	1814		0/222	29206/31020	5.85%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:        487/2477  [19.66% sold] [+131 tickets]
Thursday Sales:    1422/33724 [4.22% sold]  [+262 tickets]
    
Regal:        217/10514  [2.06% sold]
Matinee:    189/4980  [3.80% | 9.90% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Very strong Day 2 locally, compared to the comps at least.  Shows that Day 1 was no real fluke here.  Guess Sacto is just nutso for fighter pilots.

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	33923	36222	2299	6.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

390

 

Day 3 Unadjusted Comps  SOME **REALLY** BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	418.76		78	549		0/92	13434/13983	3.93%		4407	49.63%		31.13m
NTTD	468.23		56	491		0/135	20500/20991	2.34%		3737	61.52%		29.03m
Batsy	67.78		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	19.55%		14.64m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Batman had two extra days of sales for early access showings that accounted for 475 tickets sold before the main batch of tickets were released to the public.

 

Day 3 - Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	145.99		185	1498		0/104	16688/18186	8.24%		9196	25.00%		20.18m
TG:M (adj)	---		373	2187		0/222	28827/31014	7.05%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:         583/2477 [23.54% sold] [+96 tickets]
Thursday Sales:    1716/33745 [5.09% sold] [+294 tickets]
    
Regal:       264/10512  [2.51% sold]
Matinee:    212/4978  [4.26% | 9.22% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yes that is the correct number of seats sold!  Was buoyed by a large amount of sales at the Early Access showing at the local TrueIMAX indie (44 seats ftr), but still... Even without that boost, there were a whole lotta sold tickets today.  Just remarkable locally, really.

 

Anywho, gonna shift over to T-x starting on, oh let's say Saturday.

[ZackM]

Final previews numbers:

 

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 - Final
	Walkups	Last Day Presales	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	63	193	961	662
Seats Added	0	2,684	13,944	95,395	64,909
Seats Sold	91,998	55,979	38,340	38,455	27,969
5/6/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	430	9,368	649,132	1,401,453	46.32%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	26	317	1,087	2,321	2,763
ATP
$15.77

 

 

 

Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Comps
	Spider-Man: No Way Home		The Batman		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	$34.5	$38.5	$33.3	$31.0	$34.2	$35.9
T-0	$33.0	$36.9	$32.9	$30.4	$33.0	$34.7
T-1	$32.9	$36.7	$33.9	$30.9	$33.2	$34.7
T-2	$32.6	$36.5	$34.9	$31.6	$33.3	$34.9
T-3	$32.1	$35.9	$35.3	$31.8	$33.0	$34.6
T-4	$31.1	$34.9	$35.8	$32.0	$32.4	$34.0
T-5	$30.4	$34.2	$35.7	$31.8	$31.9	$33.5
T-6	$30.2	$34.0	$35.9	$31.9	$31.7	$33.3
T-7	$29.9	$33.5	$35.9	$31.9	$31.5	$33.0
T-8	$29.5	$33.0	$35.5	$31.5	$31.1	$32.6

 

[ZackM]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Tad under 940K tickets !!! Crazy number for sure. OD was around 1.2 million. 

@ZackM I dont know if you will get a chance to look at OD PS tonight. if possible post an update or at least run it 1st thing tomorrow before shows start over at east coast. 

Friday Presales

 

Theaters - 429

Showings - 10,135

Sold - 525,486

Total - 1,687,879

ATP - $16.10

[keysersoze123]

So about 10.25m if you assume all adult tickets. Assuming small discounts for senior/veteran/kids I would say close to 10m at alpha. We dont have full data for MTC2 but sample data(42% share) is 187322/411816 2445570.99 3059 shows. Thinking about 16m between the 2 big MTC and so about 35.5m previews thinking 45% market share for 2 MTC. 

[keysersoze123]

32 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Friday Presales

 

Theaters - 429

Showings - 10,135

Sold - 525,486

Total - 1,687,879

ATP - $16.10

NWH was above 815K at 130PM eastern(and finished around 1.2m). It would be great if you can do like for like comps. Can this hit 950-1m with better walkups as NWH had way more sellouts that limited walkups. 

[ZackM]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

NWH was above 815K at 130PM eastern(and finished around 1.2m). It would be great if you can do like for like comps. Can this hit 950-1m with better walkups as NWH had way more sellouts that limited walkups. 

I'll see if I can run it again at noon.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/29/2022 at 8:58 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
The Bad Guys	3,238	55,588	-17.99%	51,710	3,878	0	1,999
Sonic the Hedgehog 2	3,070	43,794	-13.88%	42,494	1,300	0	0
Fantastic Beasts 3	3,152	40,355	-27.41%	37,345	3,010	1,798	0
The Northman	2,795	34,127	-16.57%	32,570	1,557	0	0
Massive Talent	2,579	31,138	-21.05%	31,027	111	0	0
Memory	2,233	31,063		30,974	89	0	0
Everything Everywhere	1,920	21,833	7.22%	19,827	2,006	1,841	0
The Lost City	2,071	21,352	-12.41%	21,297	55	0	0
Father Stu	2,034	21,299	-17.56%	21,255	44	0	0
Morbius	1,390	11,920	-29.56%	11,897	23	0	0
Ambulance	1,169	8,169	-32.66%	8,144	25	3	0
The Batman	832	5,070	-45.98%	5,067	3	0	0
Spider-Man: NWH	470	3,170		3,149	21	0	21
Acharya	318	3,023		2,785	238	0	0
¿Y cómo es él?	255	2,597	-44.57%	2,592	5	0	0
Runway 34	288	2,449		2,449	0	0	0
Uncharted	307	2,243	-28.32%	2,241	2	2	0
Heropanti 2	216	1,971		1,971	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 4/29/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

 

Memory - 31,063 (2,233 TC)

 - Studio 666 - 30,292 (2,145)

 - Last Duel - 32,124 (2,731)

 - CopShop - 30,531 (2,468)

 

 

T-1 Week

Doctor Strange 2 - 173,506 (3,205 TC) (38,061 PLF shows)

 - Batman - 125,394 (3,125) (14,002 PLF)

 - Spider-Man - 135,877 (3,146) (25,877 PLF)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Firestarter - 2,811 (1,150 TC)

 - Halloween Kills - 2,694 (1,368)

 - Jackass Forever - 2,779 (1,845)

 - JJK0 - 2,855 (1,454)

Family Camp - 1,549 (532 TC)

  - WSS - 1,507 (613)

 - Massive Talent - 1,490 (831)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Downton Abbey (5/18 EA) - 1,977 (1,959 TC)

Downton Abbey - 3,261 (2,125 TC)

 - Father Stu - 3,017 (1,359)

 

T-4 Week Previews

Top Gun: Maverick (5/24 EA) - 188 (172 TC)

Top Gun: Maverick - 8,786 (822 TC)

 - Venom - 12,067 (1,934)

 

T-6 Week Previews

Jurassic World: Dominion - 14,816 (1,827 TC) (4,408 PLF)

 

Other

The Harbingers of Things to Come (5/12 Fathom) - 854 (827 TC)

ABBA: The Movie - Fan Event (5/12 & 5/14) - 936 (474 TC)

Twenty One Pilots Cinema Experience (5/19 & 5/22) - 1,482 (659 TC)

Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko - Fan Event (6/2) - 590 (588 TC)

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Doctor Strange 2	3,660	229,917		187,374	42,543	4,351	28,430
The Bad Guys	3,059	39,570	-28.82%	39,227	343	0	179
Sonic the Hedgehog 2	2,753	32,468	-25.86%	32,347	121	0	0
Fantastic Beasts 3	2,434	24,936	-38.21%	24,851	85	0	0
Memory	2,033	13,702	-55.89%	13,680	22	0	0
The Northman	2,005	22,075	-35.32%	22,040	35	0	0
The Lost City	1,482	13,842	-35.17%	13,783	59	0	0
Everything Everywhere	1,315	13,959	-36.06%	13,948	11	0	0
Massive Talent	1,044	12,345	-60.35%	12,334	11	0	0
Father Stu	937	6,701	-68.54%	6,690	11	0	0
Morbius	503	3,466	-70.92%	3,460	6	0	0
The Duke	329	3,774		3,774	0	0	0
Ambulance	305	1,852	-77.33%	1,841	11	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 5/6/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

 

Doctor Strange 2 - 229,917 (3,660 TC) (42,543 PLF shows)

 - Batman - 171,959 (3,553) (13,680 PLF)

 - Spider-Man - 206,421 (3,340) (28,624 PLF)

 

Preview show count advantage over NWH dropped from 8.6% last week to 4%.  Combination of adding shows earlier and lower demand.  Full weekend show count still has a pretty nice advantage, especially in PLFs.

 

T-1 Week

Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830 TC)

 - Ambulance - 27,883 (2,198)

 - Dog - 26,312 (2,172)

 - JJK0 - 26,472 (2,001)

Family Camp - 8,851 (622 TC)

  - Spencer - 8,816 (703)

 - Show Me the Father - 9,066 (776)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Downton Abbey (5/18 EA) - 2,099 (2,080 TC)

Downton Abbey - 3,451 (2,258 TC)

 - Father Stu - 3,134 (1,400)

 - Marry Me - 3,771 (1,845)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Top Gun: Maverick (5/24 EA) - 897 (876 TC) (592 PLF)

Top Gun: Maverick (5/25 AMC EA) - 203 (202 TC)

Top Gun: Maverick (Thu Previews) - 20,170 (2,554 TC)

 - Batman - 21,077 (2,439)

 - Venom - 12,285 (1,978)

 

T-5 Week Previews

Jurassic World: Dominion - 18,526 (2,512 TC) (4,973 PLF)

 

Other

The Harbingers of Things to Come (5/12 Fathom) - 854 (827 TC)

ABBA: The Movie - Fan Event (5/12 & 5/14) - 982 (499 TC)

Twenty One Pilots Cinema Experience (5/19 & 5/22) - 1,535 (688 TC)

Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko - Fan Event (6/2) - 600 (598 TC)

[charlie Jatinder]

25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

NWH was above 815K at 130PM eastern(and finished around 1.2m). It would be great if you can do like for like comps. Can this hit 950-1m with better walkups as NWH had way more sellouts that limited walkups. 

NWH finished 1.05M I think.

Anyways the actual #s for NWH was $14.4M THU (Around 93% coverage) & $16M for FRI.

[MrPink]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

This movie will make more than MI2's final total in its OW is what you're telling me.

[BruiseCruise]

3 weeks ago I would have guess 100mil total DOM for TG2 and now it seems like that might be the OW floor or close to it