The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Joyous Legion]

Some decent demographic reasons for a Philly underindex imo

[Ryan Reynolds]

Maverick weekend will be interesting to watch , a weekend between 90m-170m

[Alex SciChannel]

4 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Maverick weekend will be interesting to watch , a weekend between 90m-170m

Understandable that the studio would lowball at 90M-95M 4-day. Want to make it seem more like an overperformance. But why are the industry pundits only predicting 100M 4-day like Deadline? 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Sold another 10k tickets for today's screenings after only selling 14k up to this point.  Another strong day overall.  Really curious to see how tomorrow shakes out.

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: D0 Final
5/25/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	195	196	23,945	41,245	58.06%
ATP
$13.42

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	82	462	401	0	27
Seats Added	5,079	55,423	48,956	0	3,827
Seats Sold	20,115	14,162	11,163	7,137	6,524
5/25/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	4,870	137,242	847,443	16.19%
ATP
$16.59

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Comps
	Dr. Strange MoM		The Batman		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	$15.1	$16.7	$14.2	$14.4	$16.3
T-2	$14.0	$15.9	$13.6	$13.9	$15.5
T-3	$13.4	$15.2	$13.2	$13.4	$14.8
T-4	$12.9	$14.7	$12.9	$13.1	$14.1
T-5	$12.7	$14.4	$12.6	$12.8	$13.7
T-6	$12.1	$13.8	$12.1	$12.2	$13.1
T-7	$11.7	$13.4	$11.7	$11.8	$12.6
T-8	$11.4	$13.0	$11.3	$11.4	$12.2
T-9	$11.3	$12.8	$11.0	$11.1	$12.1
T-10	$11.0	$12.6	$10.8	$10.9	$11.9
T-11	$10.8	$12.3	$10.6	$10.6	$11.6
T-12	$10.5	$12.0	$10.3	$10.4	$11.3
T-13	$10.3	$11.7	$10.1	$10.2	$11.1

 

I am expecting 240K finish and 3.8m gross at alpha. That should translate to 14m thursday(minus early shows). So around 18.5-19m overall previews for Top Gun. 

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are you sure about tuesday. We tracked around 3.7 to 3.8m while missing numbers for another 100 shows. It seems low to me. 

Have to consider seniors and veterans discount as well.

AMC - $1.15M (263 shows. Around 20 missing but I guess they will take care of discount)
Regal - $850K (182 shows, may be minus $50k for discounts)
Cinemark - $580K (162 shows, may be $50k for discounts)

Mega, Harkins, Draft - $136k (29 shows, may be $5k discounts)

Rest - $1.08M (320 shows, Say $75k discounts)

 

Total - $3.796M (956 shows. $180k+ discounts)

21 shows out of total 995 shows were non-reserved. Take $30k in those. That gives $3.63M in tracked shows.

 

May be we missed 100 shows. Take $200k for them and few walkins we missed in tracked ones. 

$3.8-3.9M

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

6 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Understandable that the studio would lowball at 90M-95M 4-day. Want to make it seem more like an overperformance. But why are the industry pundits only predicting 100M 4-day like Deadline? 

Deadline and other trades work for studios , personally anything over Tom's MI films seem like an over performance , i thought the sequel was too late. It could still open at low end.

[motionpic05]

Top Gun Maverick

Thursday Previews

 

Cineplex

 

UltraAVX:

4:00pm: 26/210 seats sold

7:10pm: 71/ 210 seats sold

10:15pm: 13/210 seats sold

 

Regular:

3:30: 0/219 seats sold

4:30: 2/141 seats sold

6:40: 13/219 seats sold

7:25: 9/141 seats sold

9:45: 0/219 seats sold

10:30: 0/141 seats sold

 

Landmark Cinemas Canada

 

IMAX:

4:00: 15/251 seats sold

7:00: 75/251 seats sold

10:00: 11/251 seats sold

 

Regular:

3:00: 13/146 seats sold

3:30: 12/76 seats sold

4:15: 0/114 seats sold

6:30: 29/146 seats sold

6:45: 14/76 seats sold

7:15: 36/114 seats sold

9:30: 13/146 seats sold

9;45: 0/76 seats sold

10:15: 0/114 seats sold

 

Honestly, Top Gun Thursday Previews are looking very meh in this Ontarian City. PLFs are solid, while regular screenings are quite bad. I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall into $80-90 million 3 day weekend.

 

 

 

[motionpic05]

I'm thinking it will be about $80-90 million for the 3 Day. 

PLFs look solid in my area, but regular screenings are quite bad. 

Edited May 26, 2022 by motionpic05

[Ryan Reynolds]

6 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

I'm thinking it will be about $80-90 million for the 3 Day. 

PLFs look solid in my area, but regular screenings are quite bad. 

i see this too , but widest release ever, it should have good walk-up , Solo boxoffice is my low end prediction , but wom and Cruise should push a little higher

[ThomasNicole]

Why on earth this would be more frontloaded than The Batman? 

 

80M would be more frontloaded than both NWH and DS2 actually.

 

Unless it collapses out of nowhere, this should do at least 120M 3-day

Edited May 26, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[Porthos]

On 5/24/2022 at 11:50 PM, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	190	22988	25314	2326	9.19%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	171
Total Seats Sold Today	112

 

T-16 Unadjusted Comp

%

Sold T-16

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

F9

281.26

49

827

0/91

13323/14150

5.84%

4407

50.56%

20.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-16 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	98.02		84	2273		0/117	16861/19134	11.88%		9196	25.29%		13.55m
JWD (adj)	---		104	2228		0/168	20348/22576	9.87%		---	---		---

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.56484x JW2 at the same sources of tracking on Day 16 [21.55m adj]
JW3 = 0.96674x TLK at the same sources of tracking on Day 16 [20.01m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       358/6145  [5.83% sold]
Matinee:    141/1535  [9.19% | 6.06% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	191	22947	25372	2425	9.56%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	58
Total Seats Sold Today	99

 

T-15 Unadjusted Comp

%

Sold T-15

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

F9

270.04

71

898

0/91

13252/14150

6.35%

4407

52.44%

20.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-15 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	97.06		108	2381		0/117	16753/19134	12.44%		9196	26.37%		13.42m
JWD (adj)	---		83	2311		0/169	20323/22634	10.21%		---	---		---

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.79.93

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.5152x JW2 at the same sources of tracking on Day 15 [20.86m adj]
JW3 = 3.6625x KotM at the same sources of tracking on Day 15 [20.77m adj]
JW3 = 0.94668x TLK at the same sources of tracking on Day 15 [19.6m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:        377/6145  [6.14% sold]
Matinee:    145/1535  [9.45% | 5.98% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Going to rope in NTTD and Dune comps starting tomorrow, I think.  Disparity in pre-sale length will make them ropy comps, but they should be better than the BW one and it's time for some fresh blood in these comps, IMO.

Edited May 28, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 5/24/2022 at 11:51 PM, Porthos said:

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	2	344	34293	43004	8711	20.26%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	20
Total Seats Added Today	1565
Total Seats Sold Today	957

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	110.02		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	74.09%		23.76m
BW	150.19		706	5800		0/241	25079/30879	18.78%		9196	94.73%		20.76m
DSMoM	52.56		1182	16572		0/383	28323/44895	36.91%		21117	41.25%		18.92m
NWH	37.70		1659	23106		1/368	18946/42052	54.95%		28183	30.91%		18.85m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:       2230/2477 [90.03% sold] [+180 tickets] [FINAL]
Thursday Sales:    6481/40527 [15.99% sold] [+777 tickets]
    
Regal:     1090/10415  [10.47% sold]
Matinee:    491/4515  [10.87% | 5.64% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	2	345	33356	43012	9656	22.45%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	1
Total Net Seats Added Today	8
Total Seats Sold Today	945

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	101.23		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	82.13%		21.86m
BW	139.06		1144	6944		0/258	25357/32301	21.50%		9196	105.00%		19.22m
NTTD	346.59		556	2786		0/178	21932/24718	11.27%		3737	258.39%		21.49m
Dune	458.28		365	2107		0/109	12686/14793	14.24%		2915	331.25%		23.37m
NWH	38.52		1961	25067		0/373	16985/42052	59.61%		28183	34.26%		19.26m
DSMoM	52.86		1695	18267		0/404	28068/46335	39.42%		21117	45.73%		19.03m
FB3	318.47		637	3032		0/207	24756/27788	10.91%		4456	216.70%		19.11m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-1 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	311.14		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		4407	219.11%		23.13m
TG:M (adj)	---		782	9020		2/322	31668/40688	22.17%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:      2230/2477   [90.03% sold] [FINAL]
Thursday Sales:    7426/40535 [18.32% sold] [+945 tickets]
    
Regal:     1269/10415  [12.18% sold]
Matinee:    570/4515  [12.62% | 5.90% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Finally, finally, re-added a ton of action movie comps.  More for daily pace comparison than for actual comps, as those comps aren't gonna be very  accurate.  Also added FB3 by request, again for daily pace, but also perhaps for being an accurate comp.

 

FWIW, F9 exploded on its last day here (it also was sampled later in the day, FWIW due to its start time), so no way TG:M comes close to that comp.

 

Kinda feeling 19m as a comp coming out of Sacto, but it all depends on how good the final day really is.

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

JW3 = 0.94668x TLK at the same sources of tracking on Day 15 [19.6m adj]

 

So JW3 adjusted in same theaters as TLK is 92% of total (2237 vs 2425 overall). TLK had very big next 7 days adding 1342.

Let's see what JW3 adds, but I think it would be around ~800 so T-8 days may look like 81% of TLK.

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Kinda feeling 19m as a comp coming out of Sacto, but it all depends on how good the final day really is.

For all its crazy start, Sacramento will come around 19 after all. Pothos' dark magic remains undefeated.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

For all its crazy start, Sacramento will come around 19 after all. Pothos' dark magic remains undefeated.

Well let’s see what tomorrow brings before we start celebrating my dark arts perhaps triumphing once again.

 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Maverick weekend will be interesting to watch , a weekend between 90m-170m

 

A Deadline Hollywood Forecast that actually has reason to be that wide of a range for once!!! 

[Borf the Borf]

This data prob isnt of much use to yall without a histories and comps but gotta start somewhere.   I am seeing a heavy skew with the IMAX showings vs vs Regular screenings.  Dont really know the implications but I with the 120 theatrical run  I think they are expecting people to waiting around for IMAX screenings/repeat viewings.  Any ways 5 Tampa area IMAX screenings numbers as of 3am Thursday T -- 12 hours.

Collected by hand, I will learn  selenium this week to automate some collection.  And if there is intrest I will update 2pm and right before Mid showing.  Handicaps and companions account for variance i was using HTML to ID aby "Can Reserve" and "Not available" and those seats categorized differently.  

Theater 5 is actually Sarasota, included because of older skewing demo, median age 50 vs national average of 38 years old

 

			Sold	Available	Total	% sold
		Early	92	269	361	25.5%
Theater 1		Mid	271	93	364	74.5%
		Late	55	308	363	15.2%
			418	670	1088	38.4%
			Sold	Available	Total	% sold
		Early	67	191	258	26.0%
Theater 2		Mid	119	140	259	45.9%
		Late	29	230	259	11.2%
			215	561	776	27.7%
			Sold	Available	Total	% sold
Theater 3		Early	138	71	209	66.0%
		Mid	185	22	207	89.4%
			323	93	416	77.6%
			Sold	Available	Total	% sold
		Early	140	213	353	39.7%
Theater 4		Mid	251	104	355	70.7%
		Late	25	316	341	7.3%
			416	633	1049	39.7%
			Sold	Available	Total	% sold
		Early	115	143	258	44.6%
Theater 5		Mid	154	105	259	59.5%
		Late	94	165	259	36.3%
			363	413	776
			5 Tamp Area IMAX		1 Screen no late screening
				Avaial	Sold	Tot Seats
			Early	887	552	1439
			Mid	464	980	1444
			Late	1019	203	1222
			Total	4105	1735	5840

Edited May 26, 2022 by Borf the Borf
Explaining why totals my not be the same because unreserved handicap and companion not counted

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

This data prob isnt of much use to yall without a histories and comps but gotta start somewhere

No data is useless.

 

Welcome to tracking.

Edited May 26, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[stripe]

2 hours ago, motionpic05 said:

I'm thinking it will be about $80-90 million for the 3 Day. 

PLFs look solid in my area, but regular screenings are quite bad. 

 

Well, many data suggest that previews number will be 15M+

Given Sunday's boost and WOM spreading once GA sees the movie, I can't see Maverick going below 100M 3day. Also, adults are the main audience for this movie, and they do not usually rush to buy tickets in advance for OD.

[charlie Jatinder]

The Bob's Burgers Harkins T-1

 

Phoenix 4 - 327/1422

California - 199/1946

 

Total - 526

 

Comps

0.34x Sonic 2 - $1.7M

1.65x Downton Abbey - $1.7M

 

Very big difference between Phoenix and California individual comps. Sonic CA suggesting $1.1M while Phoenix suggesting $2.6M.