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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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Borf the Borf Cult Classic

Borf the Borf

Posted
Posted

Is it 

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

yes 80-90m is still good but that is impossible once you see the preview numbers. It needs almost negligible walkups worse than any movie we have seen. That is not happening for sure. Low end with disappointing walkups would 125m over 4 days(plus previews over 3 days). 

Are you talking about preview as bein Tuesday - Thursday?  I think that is causing a lot of inflated comps.  They basically padded the previews with there screenings etc.,  use Thursday True take and ask if the early screening help via word of mouth etc. or actually take away from a normal run with Previews starting at 33pm on Thur.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

Is it 

Are you talking about preview as bein Tuesday - Thursday?  I think that is causing a lot of inflated comps.  They basically padded the previews with there screenings etc.,  use Thursday True take and ask if the early screening help via word of mouth etc. or actually take away from a normal run with Previews starting at 33pm on Thur.

Even the straight thursday numbers will tell the tale. Plus we have Alpha PS for friday as well. We have enough fine grained data to project a floor for this movie. We have been doing this for a while and its not a rocket science at this point. 

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted

Well this was unexpected...Final presales run for Maverick.  I'll be posting updates throughout the evening...Hopefully things pick up.

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 37 82 462 401 0
Seats Added 2,971 5,079 55,423 48,956 0
Seats Sold 18,916 20,115 14,162 11,163 7,137
           
5/26/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 429 4,907 156,158 850,414 18.36%
           
ATP          
$16.37          

 

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Comps
  Dr. Strange MoM The Batman
Net
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0 - - - - -
T-0 $14.8 $16.3 $13.5 $13.8 $15.9
T-1 $15.1 $16.7 $14.2 $14.4 $16.3
T-2 $14.0 $15.9 $13.6 $13.9 $15.5
T-3 $13.4 $15.2 $13.2 $13.4 $14.8
T-4 $12.9 $14.7 $12.9 $13.1 $14.1
T-5 $12.7 $14.4 $12.6 $12.8 $13.7
T-6 $12.1 $13.8 $12.1 $12.2 $13.1
T-7 $11.7 $13.4 $11.7 $11.8 $12.6
T-8 $11.4 $13.0 $11.3 $11.4 $12.2
T-9 $11.3 $12.8 $11.0 $11.1 $12.1
T-10 $11.0 $12.6 $10.8 $10.9 $11.9
T-11 $10.8 $12.3 $10.6 $10.6 $11.6
T-12 $10.5 $12.0 $10.3 $10.4 $11.3
T-13 $10.3 $11.7 $10.1 $10.2 $11.1

 

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Borf the Borf Cult Classic

Borf the Borf

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Borf the Borf said:

This data prob isnt of much use to yall without a histories and comps but gotta start somewhere.   I am seeing a heavy skew with the IMAX showings vs vs Regular screenings.  Dont really know the implications but I with the 120 theatrical run  I think they are expecting people to waiting around for IMAX screenings/repeat viewings.  Any ways 5 Tampa area IMAX screenings numbers as of 3am Thursday T -- 12 hours.

Collected by hand, I will learn  selenium this week to automate some collection.  And if there is intrest I will update 2pm and right before Mid showing.  Handicaps and companions account for variance i was using HTML to ID aby "Can Reserve" and "Not available" and those seats categorized differently.  

Theater 5 is actually Sarasota, included because of older skewing demo, median age 50 vs national average of 38 years old

 

      Sold Available Total % sold
    Early 92 269 361 25.5%
Theater 1   Mid 271 93 364 74.5%
    Late 55 308 363 15.2%
      418 670 1088 38.4%
             
      Sold Available Total % sold
    Early 67 191 258 26.0%
Theater 2   Mid 119 140 259 45.9%
    Late 29 230 259 11.2%
      215 561 776 27.7%
             
      Sold Available Total % sold
Theater 3   Early 138 71 209 66.0%
    Mid 185 22 207 89.4%
      323 93 416 77.6%
             
             
      Sold Available Total % sold
    Early 140 213 353 39.7%
Theater 4   Mid 251 104 355 70.7%
    Late 25 316 341 7.3%
      416 633 1049 39.7%
             
             
      Sold Available Total % sold
    Early 115 143 258 44.6%
Theater 5   Mid 154 105 259 59.5%
    Late 94 165 259 36.3%
      363 413 776  
             
      5 Tamp Area IMAX 1 Screen no late screening
             
        Avaial Sold Tot Seats
      Early 887 552 1439
      Mid 464 980 1444
      Late 1019 203 1222
      Total  4105 1735 5840

 

3pm IMAX runs from the Tampa Area + Sarasota T-0 update from prior t-12h 

vQGdRcK.png

Edited by Borf the Borf
Added start times some are T-30m or T-1h
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Maggie Box Office Gold

Maggie

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Well this was unexpected...Final presales run for Maverick.  I'll be posting updates throughout the evening...Hopefully things pick up.

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 37 82 462 401 0
Seats Added 2,971 5,079 55,423 48,956 0
Seats Sold 18,916 20,115 14,162 11,163 7,137
           
5/26/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 429 4,907 156,158 850,414 18.36%
           
ATP          
$16.37          

 

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Comps
  Dr. Strange MoM The Batman
Net
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0 - - - - -
T-0 $14.8 $16.3 $13.5 $13.8 $15.9
T-1 $15.1 $16.7 $14.2 $14.4 $16.3
T-2 $14.0 $15.9 $13.6 $13.9 $15.5
T-3 $13.4 $15.2 $13.2 $13.4 $14.8
T-4 $12.9 $14.7 $12.9 $13.1 $14.1
T-5 $12.7 $14.4 $12.6 $12.8 $13.7
T-6 $12.1 $13.8 $12.1 $12.2 $13.1
T-7 $11.7 $13.4 $11.7 $11.8 $12.6
T-8 $11.4 $13.0 $11.3 $11.4 $12.2
T-9 $11.3 $12.8 $11.0 $11.1 $12.1
T-10 $11.0 $12.6 $10.8 $10.9 $11.9
T-11 $10.8 $12.3 $10.6 $10.6 $11.6
T-12 $10.5 $12.0 $10.3 $10.4 $11.3
T-13 $10.3 $11.7 $10.1 $10.2 $11.1

 

It dropped? So, it's frontloaded

Edited by Maggie
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Maggie Box Office Gold

Maggie

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Same thing here with the early shows t-1 hr run.  Hoping the walkups are heavier for the later shows with the older demo.  

But why is this happening? Why the drop? The hardcore fans saw it already on Tuesday?

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
Just now, Maggie said:

But why is this happening? Why the drop? The hardcore fans saw it already on Tuesday?

The comp dropping?  Morning sales were higher for the CBM comps.  Nothing to worry about at this point.  Just give it until the late night updates come in to see the full picture.

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motionpic05 Cult Classic

motionpic05

Posted
Posted

Kind of random but sounds like Halloween Ends is already almost done. 

Jason Blum just saw the first cut. After the first cut of Kills, there wasn't much changed. 

 

I have a feeling it could do '18 numbers. Kills did $50 million on it's OW with being on Peacock, bad reviews and crazy competition. 

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted

Bob's Burgers, counted today at 10am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 58 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 38 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 48 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 17 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 39 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 81 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 196 (8 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 477.
 

Comp: Jackass Forever had 499 sold tickets in 6 theaters (the AMC Grand Rapids was closed due to the snow storm).


Bob's Burgers, counted today at 10am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 117 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 36 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 63 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 18 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 27 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 75 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 151 (10 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 487.

Up 28% since yesterday.
 

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Jackass Forever (23.2M OW) had 917 sold tickets,

Free Guy (28.4M OW; probably a way better film for walk-ups) had 624 sold tickets

and G: A (44M OW) had 1.124 sold tickets.
At least low double digits seem doable IMO.


TG: M, counted today at 11am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 512 (13 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 650 (23 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 276 (21 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 148 (9 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 147 (16 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.043 (27 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.249 (24 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 4.025.

Up only 13% since yesterday. 4.025 sold tickets - that's still a very good number for a film which probably attracts an older audience that F9, Spidey and so on but honestly I thought it would have a bigger jump due to the reviews and the Audience Score.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Uncharted (44.0M OW) had 1.180 sold tickets,
Angel has Fallen (21.4M OW) had 459 sold tickets

and Midway (17.9M OW) had 361 sold tickets.

F 9 (70M OW) had 3.585 sold tickets = x1.12 plus Canada (+8-10M?) and the better Sunday (+5M) which would be around 90M+.

As mentioned I think that this film will attract an older audience but what gives me indeed pause is the jump. But from the other comps it looks better so I just stay with 100M 3-day.

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