The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

1 hour ago, p a p i said:

Genuine question. 

Is September 1st the start of the Fall season? Is August the end of our movie Summer season? 

There really aren’t clean breaks in the movie seasons anymore - there have been successful openings and runs throughout the calendar year. With that said, August is still considered summer, but more the transition period to fall, so usually (esp later in month) we get smaller/weaker releases that may have gotten buried under the tentpoles in May-July. But some of those can still surprise and do well (Free Guy, Meg, Crazy Rich Asians, etc) - it’s more of a hit or miss kind of month 

 

EDIT: to me, true summer is 1st weekend in May (or end of April if Avengers) through 1st weekend of August. After that, its summer leftovers/transition to fall as total gross usually decline fairly quickly 

Edited August 13, 2022 by M37

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Beast	T-6	Jax	6	23	2	6	2,933	0.20%
		Phx	6	18	0	28	2,565	1.09%
		Ral	8	21	2	15	2,417	0.62%
	Total		20	62	4	49	7,915	0.62%
Dragon Ball	T-6	Jax	6	26	32	256	5,795	4.42%
		Phx	6	21	21	413	4,409	9.37%
		Ral	7	24	25	283	3,108	9.11%
	Total		19	71	78	952	13,312	7.15%

 

Beast T-6 comps

 - Dune - missed

 - Snake Eyes - .515x (722k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .285x (769k)

 - Bullet Train - .154x (515k)

 

Dragon Ball T-6 comp

 - JJK:0 - missed (next tracked at T-4)

 -MHA (Fri) - (first tracked at T-5)

 

It's on track to pass JJK T-4 (1,089) and already ahead of MHA T-5 (892)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Beast	T-5	Jax	6	24	2	8	2,993	0.27%
		Phx	6	18	6	34	2,565	1.33%
		Ral	8	21	1	16	2,417	0.66%
	Total		20	63	9	58	7,975	0.73%
Dragon Ball	T-5	Jax	6	26	-1	255	5,795	4.40%
		Phx	6	21	18	431	4,409	9.78%
		Ral	7	24	13	296	3,108	9.52%
	Total		19	71	30	982	13,312	7.38%

 

Beast T-5 comps

 - Dune - missed

 - Snake Eyes - .537x (752k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .324x (875k)

 - Bullet Train - .173x (580k)

 

Hoping this can pull in the late buying crowd like Bullet Train did (or even more so) because presales are just not great.

 

Dragon Ball T-5 comp

 - JJK:0 - missed (next tracked at T-4 for 1,089)

 -MHA (Fri) - 1.1x (3.18m)

 

Okay, it may be close for catching JJK.  Still liking around 3m for previews.

[filmlover]

Labor Day weekend always marks the official end of summer movie season. In addition to schools starting back up, the industry itself starts shifting its attention to the fall/holiday box office sweepstakes and the commencement of awards season with the fall festivals.

[filmlover]

On 8/12/2022 at 10:47 AM, filmlover said:

Looks like Rogue One is coming back in two weeks (presumably to promote the release of Andor).

 

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story at an AMC Theatre near you. (amctheatres.com)

Yep, it's official.

 

 

‘ROGUE ONE’ will be re-released in select IMAX theatres on August 26 including an exclusive look at ‘ANDOR’.

(Source: https://t.co/LEpvaGs63z) pic.twitter.com/z8bDYeWoDu

— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) August 13, 2022

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Yep, it's official.

 

 

 

And to comment on @CJohn's snark, I presume that even if Disney wanted to try to move the release thanks to Andor being pushed back, it couldn't (easily do it) due to contracts being written in advance.

 

As it is, never a bad time to release one of the best SW films of all time, and one month is still soon enough to keep it fresh in folks minds.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yep, it's official.

 

 

 

Is that a good idea? People will be reminded how boring and unmemorable a character Andor is.

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

And to comment on @CJohn's snark, I presume that even if Disney wanted to try to move the release thanks to Andor being pushed back, it couldn't (easily do it) due to contracts being written in advance.

 

As it is, never a bad time to release one of the best SW films of all time, and one month is still soon enough to keep it fresh in folks minds.

Moving Andor back a few weeks is probably the best thing that could've happened to it (or at least the right call) since late August through early September is already filled with really anticipated shows with plenty of buzz (She-Hulk, House of the Dragon, Lord of the Rings). More of a chance for them to build awareness and allow it to stand out.

Edited August 13, 2022 by filmlover

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/11/2022 at 11:46 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

Twin Cities Area:

 

Dragon Ball (T-7):

 

 

Beast (T-7):

 

 

Added growth rates to the spreadsheet, which will come in more handy on the final days of releases (as well as more pre-sales heavy releases, trying to experiment with these weaker August releases). Also thinking of just posting the totals here to declutter a bit, so y'all don't have to read through all the individual theater info.

 

 

Twin Cities Thursday Previews Report:

 

Dragon Ball (T-5):

Day: T-5	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
14 theaters	45	11	423	6387	6.62

 

Beast (T-5):

Day: T-5	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
12 theaters	27	20	43	3620	1.19

One of the AMCs for Dragon Ball inexplicably dropped two shows (thought I had made a mistake, but I triple checked and it definitely happened), which resulted in a drop of almost 60 tickets for that theater. Don't know what happened there, but it completely skewed the numbers, the "new seats" number should be way higher. Other than that, Beast almost doubled the seats sold in the last two days, but it's still such a small number we'll see if that trend continues.

Edited August 13, 2022 by abracadabra1998

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Beast	T-5	Jax	6	24	2	8	2,993	0.27%
		Phx	6	18	6	34	2,565	1.33%
		Ral	8	21	1	16	2,417	0.66%
	Total		20	63	9	58	7,975	0.73%
Dragon Ball	T-5	Jax	6	26	-1	255	5,795	4.40%
		Phx	6	21	18	431	4,409	9.78%
		Ral	7	24	13	296	3,108	9.52%
	Total		19	71	30	982	13,312	7.38%

 

Beast T-5 comps

 - Dune - missed

 - Snake Eyes - .537x (752k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .324x (875k)

 - Bullet Train - .173x (580k)

 

Hoping this can pull in the late buying crowd like Bullet Train did (or even more so) because presales are just not great.

 

Dragon Ball T-5 comp

 - JJK:0 - missed (next tracked at T-4 for 1,089)

 -MHA (Fri) - 1.1x (3.18m)

 

Okay, it may be close for catching JJK.  Still liking around 3m for previews.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Beast	T-4	Jax	6	24	1	9	2,993	0.30%
		Phx	6	18	0	34	2,565	1.33%
		Ral	8	21	5	21	2,417	0.87%
	Total		20	63	6	64	7,975	0.80%
Dragon Ball	T-4	Jax	6	26	27	282	5,795	4.87%
		Phx	6	21	22	453	4,409	10.27%
		Ral	7	24	17	313	3,108	10.07%
	Total		19	71	66	1,048	13,312	7.87%

 

Couldn't quite close the gap after a poor Friday, but got back on track yesterday with new sales in 24/71 shows.  Beast should start to pick up tomorrow

 

Beast T-4 comps

 - Dune - missed

 - Snake Eyes - .5x (700k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .314x (847k)

 - Bullet Train - .173x (581k)

 - Candyman - .5x (957k)

 - Old - .82x (1.23m)

 

 

Dragon Ball T-4 comp

 - JJK:0 - .96x (2.77m)

 -MHA (Fri) - 1.08x (3.12m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Beast	T-4	Jax	6	24	1	9	2,993	0.30%
		Phx	6	18	0	34	2,565	1.33%
		Ral	8	21	5	21	2,417	0.87%
	Total		20	63	6	64	7,975	0.80%
Dragon Ball	T-4	Jax	6	26	27	282	5,795	4.87%
		Phx	6	21	22	453	4,409	10.27%
		Ral	7	24	17	313	3,108	10.07%
	Total		19	71	66	1,048	13,312	7.87%

 

Couldn't quite close the gap after a poor Friday, but got back on track yesterday with new sales in 24/71 shows.  Beast should start to pick up tomorrow

 

Beast T-4 comps

 - Dune - missed

 - Snake Eyes - .5x (700k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .314x (847k)

 - Bullet Train - .173x (581k)

 - Candyman - .5x (957k)

 - Old - .82x (1.23m)

 

 

Dragon Ball T-4 comp

 - JJK:0 - .96x (2.77m)

 -MHA (Fri) - 1.08x (3.12m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Beast	T-3	Jax	6	24	2	11	2,993	0.37%
		Phx	6	18	5	39	2,565	1.52%
		Ral	8	21	8	29	2,417	1.20%
	Total		20	63	15	79	7,975	0.99%
Dragon Ball	T-3	Jax	6	26	36	318	5,795	5.49%
		Phx	6	21	18	471	4,409	10.68%
		Ral	7	24	24	337	3,108	10.84%
	Total		19	71	78	1,126	13,312	8.46%

 

Beast T-3 comps

 - Dune - .067x (342k)

 - Snake Eyes - .48x (670k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .331x (892k)

 - Bullet Train - .182x (610k)

 - Candyman - .5x (950k)

 - Old - .79x (1.19m)

 

Dragon Ball T-3 comp

 - JJK:0 - .93x (2.68m)

 -MHA (Fri) - 1.04x (3.01m)

 

Another pretty good day for Dragon Ball, but not as good as the comps.

[Issac Newton]

55 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Dragon Ball T-3 comp

 - JJK:0 - .93x (2.68m)

 -MHA (Fri) - 1.04x (3.01m)

 

Another pretty good day for Dragon Ball, but not as good as the comps

It's holding behind JJK. Possibly just $10M-$12M OW — I guess. Only wish is I just want it to debut No.1 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Beast	PLF	6	16	16	1,044	1.53%	$15.43	$246.88
		Standard	21	4	4	2,456	0.16%	$12.99	$51.96
	Total		27	20	20	3,500	0.57%	$14.94	$298.84
T-3	Dragon Ball	PLF	19	972	972	5,347	18.18%	$15.49	$15,059.69
		Standard	43	561	561	6,205	9.04%	$13.56	$7,608.33
	Total		62	1,533	1,533	11,552	13.27%	$14.79	$22,668.02
T-4	Beast (Fri)	PLF	15	8	8	2,960	0.27%	$14.69	$117.48
		Standard	30	8	8	3,520	0.23%	$9.91	$79.27
	Total		45	16	16	6,480	0.25%	$12.30	$196.75
T-4	Dragon Ball (Fri)	PLF	30	596	596	8,095	7.36%	$14.94	$8,901.90
		Standard	29	244	244	3,397	7.18%	$13.72	$3,347.32
	Total		59	840	840	11,492	7.31%	$14.58	$12,249.22

 

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-4	Beast (Fri)	N	18	10	10	2,592	0.39%	$13.48	$134.78
		Y	27	6	6	3,888	0.15%	$10.33	$61.97
	Total		45	16	16	6,480	0.25%	$12.30	$196.75
T-4	Dragon Ball (Fri)	N	56	811	811	10,808	7.50%	$14.67	$11,897.62
		Y	3	29	29	684	4.24%	$12.12	$351.60
	Total		59	840	840	11,492	7.31%	$14.58	$12,249.22

 

Same story here as regionals, but magnified.  Beast struggling to sell tickets, and Dragon Ball, like all anime, is extremely presales heavy.

 

Beast T-3 comps

 - Massive Talent - 1x (835k)

 

I don't have any anime comps yet, so this is just for future use.  CBM comps are between 4.4m and 5.8m, but I don't expect this to have nearly the same growth rate this week.  Friday sales look pretty good as well.  Comps would equate that to a +7% to +10% increase from previews. 

[XXR & Friends]

3 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

It's holding behind JJK. Possibly just $10M-$12M OW — I guess. Only wish is I just want it to debut No.1 

It will be #1 if it goes over $10M.

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/13/2022 at 1:40 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

 

Twin Cities Thursday Previews Report:

 

Dragon Ball (T-5):

Day: T-5	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
14 theaters	45	11	423	6387	6.62

 

Beast (T-5):

Day: T-5	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
12 theaters	27	20	43	3620	1.19

One of the AMCs for Dragon Ball inexplicably dropped two shows (thought I had made a mistake, but I triple checked and it definitely happened), which resulted in a drop of almost 60 tickets for that theater. Don't know what happened there, but it completely skewed the numbers, the "new seats" number should be way higher. Other than that, Beast almost doubled the seats sold in the last two days, but it's still such a small number we'll see if that trend continues.

 

Twin Cities Thursday Previews Report:

 

Dragon Ball (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	45	54	477	6387	7.47

 

Beast (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	27	8	51	3620	1.41

 

Also just started tracking Three Thousand Years of Longing, probably will flop but I owe this to George Miller after the Mad Max movies. T-10 days:

Day: T-10	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 3 theaters	7	36	36	1002	3.59

 

My only comp is Beast, not a good one at all, but they both have Idris Elba I guess: 2.4x Beast (with way less theaters and screens, worth mentioning)

[filmlover]

Three Thousand Years of Longing feels like an easy candidate for a sub-$15M total tbh.

[CJohn]

48 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Three Thousand Years of Longing feels like an easy candidate for a sub-$15M total tbh.

At this point it is more like a sub-10M total. Sub-5M wouldn't shock me.

 

Edited August 16, 2022 by CJohn

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

At this point it is more like a sub-10M total. Sub-5M wouldn't shock me.

 

Maybe but I decided to be nice, marketing is virtually nonexistent (nor are the tepid reviews likely to help). Luckily Miller will be returning to the Mad Max universe next.

 

Hope everyone's ready for the mostly lackluster opening numbers set for the next month. The Invitation will be #1 next weekend (and maybe the 4-day weekend too? Who knows) and even that's not locked to hit double digits. Barbarian also reeks of another 20th Century Studios dump courtesy of Disney.

[ringedmortality]

50 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Barbarian also reeks of another 20th Century Studios dump courtesy of Disney.

Barbarian is by a WKUK alumn though so… there’s something 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/15/2022 at 7:46 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Beast	T-3	Jax	6	24	2	11	2,993	0.37%
		Phx	6	18	5	39	2,565	1.52%
		Ral	8	21	8	29	2,417	1.20%
	Total		20	63	15	79	7,975	0.99%
Dragon Ball	T-3	Jax	6	26	36	318	5,795	5.49%
		Phx	6	21	18	471	4,409	10.68%
		Ral	7	24	24	337	3,108	10.84%
	Total		19	71	78	1,126	13,312	8.46%

 

Beast T-3 comps

 - Dune - .067x (342k)

 - Snake Eyes - .48x (670k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .331x (892k)

 - Bullet Train - .182x (610k)

 - Candyman - .5x (950k)

 - Old - .79x (1.19m)

 

Dragon Ball T-3 comp

 - JJK:0 - .93x (2.68m)

 -MHA (Fri) - 1.04x (3.01m)

 

Another pretty good day for Dragon Ball, but not as good as the comps.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Beast	T-2	Jax	6	24	6	17	2,993	0.57%
		Phx	6	18	11	50	2,565	1.95%
		Ral	8	21	17	46	2,417	1.90%
	Total		20	63	34	113	7,975	1.42%
Dragon Ball	T-2	Jax	6	26	56	374	5,795	6.45%
		Phx	6	21	46	517	4,409	11.73%
		Ral	7	28	4*	341	3,580	9.53%
	Total		19	75	106	1,232	13,784	8.94%

*DBS had a show lose an 8 seat group sale since yesterday in Raleigh

 

Beast T-2 comps

 - Dune - .075x (382k)

 - Snake Eyes - .49x (691k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .345x (930k)

 - Bullet Train - .215x (721k)

 - Candyman - .554x (1.05m)

 - Old - .86x (1.28m)

 

Dragon Ball T-2 comp

 - JJK:0 - .91x (2.62m)

 -MHA (Fri) - 1.055x (3.04m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Beast	PLF	6	16	16	1,044	1.53%	$15.43	$246.88
		Standard	21	4	4	2,456	0.16%	$12.99	$51.96
	Total		27	20	20	3,500	0.57%	$14.94	$298.84
T-3	Dragon Ball	PLF	19	972	972	5,347	18.18%	$15.49	$15,059.69
		Standard	43	561	561	6,205	9.04%	$13.56	$7,608.33
	Total		62	1,533	1,533	11,552	13.27%	$14.79	$22,668.02
T-4	Beast (Fri)	PLF	15	8	8	2,960	0.27%	$14.69	$117.48
		Standard	30	8	8	3,520	0.23%	$9.91	$79.27
	Total		45	16	16	6,480	0.25%	$12.30	$196.75
T-4	Dragon Ball (Fri)	PLF	30	596	596	8,095	7.36%	$14.94	$8,901.90
		Standard	29	244	244	3,397	7.18%	$13.72	$3,347.32
	Total		59	840	840	11,492	7.31%	$14.58	$12,249.22

 

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-4	Beast (Fri)	N	18	10	10	2,592	0.39%	$13.48	$134.78
		Y	27	6	6	3,888	0.15%	$10.33	$61.97
	Total		45	16	16	6,480	0.25%	$12.30	$196.75
T-4	Dragon Ball (Fri)	N	56	811	811	10,808	7.50%	$14.67	$11,897.62
		Y	3	29	29	684	4.24%	$12.12	$351.60
	Total		59	840	840	11,492	7.31%	$14.58	$12,249.22

 

Same story here as regionals, but magnified.  Beast struggling to sell tickets, and Dragon Ball, like all anime, is extremely presales heavy.

 

Beast T-3 comps

 - Massive Talent - 1x (835k)

 

I don't have any anime comps yet, so this is just for future use.  CBM comps are between 4.4m and 5.8m, but I don't expect this to have nearly the same growth rate this week.  Friday sales look pretty good as well.  Comps would equate that to a +7% to +10% increase from previews. 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Beast	PLF	6	3	19	1,044	1.82%	$15.43	$293.17
		Standard	21	0	4	2,456	0.16%	$12.99	$51.96
	Total		27	3	23	3,500	0.66%	$15.01	$345.13
T-2	Dragon Ball	PLF	21	127	1,099	5,837	18.83%	$15.46	$16,993.20
		Standard	45	48	609	6,425	9.48%	$13.56	$8,257.77
	Total		66	175	1,708	12,262	13.93%	$14.78	$25,250.97
T-3	Beast (Fri)	PLF	15	2	10	2,960	0.34%	$14.56	$145.62
		Standard	30	3	11	3,520	0.31%	$9.94	$109.30
	Total		45	5	21	6,480	0.32%	$12.14	$254.92
T-3	Dragon Ball (Fri)	PLF	30	74	670	8,095	8.28%	$14.90	$9,980.98
		Standard	29	23	267	3,397	7.86%	$13.75	$3,670.51
	Total		59	97	937	11,492	8.15%	$14.57	$13,651.49

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Beast (Fri)	N	18	5	15	2,592	0.58%	$12.86	$192.95
		Y	27	0	6	3,888	0.15%	$10.33	$61.97
	Total		45	5	21	6,480	0.32%	$12.14	$254.92
T-3	Dragon Ball (Fri)	N	56	94	905	10,808	8.37%	$14.66	$13,266.59
		Y*	3	3	32	684	4.68%	$12.03	$384.90
	Total		59	97	937	11,492	8.15%	$14.57	$13,651.49

*Most of the early DBS shows are still using event pricing so I'm not marking them as matinee.

 

Beast T-2 comps

 - Massive Talent - .821x (686k)

 - Firestarter - 2.3x (863k)

*Take any comps with a grain of salt - sales are so low even a single ticket will change the comp a very large amount

 

I don't have any anime comps yet, so this is just for future use.  CBM comps are between 4.5m and 6m, but I don't expect this to have nearly the same growth rate this week.  Friday sales look pretty good, but those same comps point to only a small increase from previews.