The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[CJohn]

I am hoping Beast and Dragon Ball are able to pull decent 10M+ openings next weekend but this week is a nonstarter for anything new.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am hoping Beast and Dragon Ball are able to pull decent 10M+ openings next weekend but this week is a nonstarter for anything new.

Beast should easily do $10M+ since Universal's really pushing it and early word seems to be on the positive side (the premiere was on Monday). Sony's also giving The Invitation a pretty sizeable marketing push, could hit double digits as well provided the reviews aren't terrible.

[abracadabra1998]

Twin Cities Area:

 

Dragon Ball (T-7):

 

 

Beast (T-7):

 

 

Added growth rates to the spreadsheet, which will come in more handy on the final days of releases (as well as more pre-sales heavy releases, trying to experiment with these weaker August releases). Also thinking of just posting the totals here to declutter a bit, so y'all don't have to read through all the individual theater info.

[Krissykins]

8 hours ago, p a p i said:

September does look much better overall in terms of new releases. 

 

Hopefully 20th Century "Barbarian" becomes a breakout horror movie. It has screened and reactions were really good. 

I’m excited for Barbarian, although two horror critics I follow both didn’t like it, but weren’t allowed to say why yet. 
 

Also, Beast going very wide:

 

[el sid]

Mack & Rita had today 11 sold tickets for today (it lost 5 tickets!) and 9 sold tickets for Friday (now with showtimes in 4 of my 7 theaters).

Summering had today 5 sold tickets for tomorrow and 4 sold tickets for Friday (no change since yesterday), with showtimes in only 3 theaters.
 

E:T. had 519 sold tickets for tomorrow, August 11 (with IMAX shows in 4 of the 7 theaters).
Comp: Ghostbuster: Afterlife had on the same day, Thursday of its release week, 1.437 sold tickets.
 

And for Friday, August 12, E:T. had today 460 sold tickets (also in 4 of the 7 theaters).
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): JC had 817 sold tickets,

G: A had 1.124 sold tickets,

Minions 2 had 2.893 sold tickets,

Sonic 2 had 1.851 sold tickets

and TGM had 4.025 sold tickets.
Probably the release is too limited to surprise and reach something like 5M OW, no?

 

Beast had today 85 sold tickets for next Thursday and 44 sold tickets for next Friday (in 7 theaters).
Comps: Crawl (12.0M OW) had on Monday of its release week 105 sold tickets for Thursday and 87 sold tickets for Friday.
And 47 Meters Down: Uncaged (8.4M OW) had also on Monday of its release week 31 respectively 13 sold tickets in 4 theaters.

[Krissykins]

Fall and Emily The Criminal are both fresh on rotten tomatoes so it’s a shame they’re not going as wide as the Diane Keaton film.

[Eric S'ennui]

17 hours ago, Eric the Extra-Terrestrial said:

E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	21	240	5439	4.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 29

E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	21	260	5439	4.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 20

 

Well...there's a first for everything I suppose. I guess these constant ticket declines kind of make sense (only superfans of the movie will go to see a movie that most people already own at home), so if Avatar follows suit with constant declines, at least we have the precedence.

[M37]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I’m excited for Barbarian, although two horror critics I follow both didn’t like it, but weren’t allowed to say why yet. 
 

Also, Beast going very wide:

 

Universal has never been shy about going super wide on OW even for weaker releases, basically flooding the market. Marry Me, Evan Hansen and even Firestater went 3400+ despite not clearing $8M (though DEH they probably thought would), likely with understanding of more flexibility/limited shows in week 2. Wouldn’t read much into that TC figure 

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bodies Bodies	T-0	Jax	5	9	15	56	777	7.21%
		Phx	7	12	22	68	1,231	5.52%
		Ral	6	9	20	67	858	7.81%
	Total		18	30	57	191	2,866	6.66%
ET	T-0	Jax	2	4	-3	23	1,682	1.37%
		Phx	1	2	7	36	820	4.39%
		Ral	1	2	9	15	302	4.97%
	Total		4	8	13	74	2,804	2.64%
Fall	T-0	Jax	5	12	9	17	1,107	1.54%
		Phx	4	7	2	18	870	2.07%
		Ral	6	10	12	47	1,056	4.45%
	Total		15	29	23	82	3,033	2.70%
Mack & Rita	T-0	Jax	4	16	7	14	1,414	0.99%
		Phx	6	20	6	11	1,619	0.68%
		Ral	5	12	4	6	1,056	0.57%
	Total		15	48	17	31	4,089	0.76%

 

Fall T-0 comps

 - Bullet Train - .08x (263k)

 - Death on the Nile - .243x (267k)

 - Ambulance - .485x (340k)

 - Crawdads - .083x (170k)

 

Bodies Bodies T-0 comps

 - Antlers - 1.62x (599k)

 - Candyman - .369x (702k)

 - Men - 1.265x (535k)

 - X - .857x (377k)

 - EEAAO - .661x (350k)

 

Mack & Rita T-0 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .248x (124k) 

 - Vengeance - .34x

 - Mrs. Harris - .53x

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bodies Bodies	1-Hr	Jax	5	9	36	92	777	11.84%
		Phx	7	12	31	99	1,231	8.04%
		Ral	6	9	55	122	858	14.22%
	Total		18	30	122	313	2,866	10.92%
ET	1-Hr	Jax	2	4	5	28	1,682	1.66%
		Phx	1	2	0	36	820	4.39%
		Ral	1	2	2	17	302	5.63%
	Total		4	8	7	81	2,804	2.89%
Fall	1-Hr	Jax	5	12	9	26	1,107	2.35%
		Phx	4	7	-1	17	870	1.95%
		Ral	6	10	12	59	1,056	5.59%
	Total		15	29	20	102	3,033	3.36%
Mack & Rita	1-Hr	Jax	4	16	9	23	1,414	1.63%
		Phx	6	20	2	13	1,619	0.80%
		Ral	5	14	9	15	1,288	1.16%
	Total		15	50	20	51	4,321	1.18%

 

Fall T-1 hr comps

 - Bullet Train - .069x (230k)

 - Death on the Nile - missed

 - Ambulance - missed

 - Crawdads - .079x (158k)

All thriller movies - 256k

All PG-13 movies - 205k

All movies - 211k

 

Prediction: 240k previews

 

Bodies Bodies T-1 hr comps

 - Antlers - 1.65x (610k)

 - Candyman - .337x (639k)

 - Men - 1.338x (566k)

 - X - .913x (402k)

 - EEAAO - missed

All horror movies - 697k

All R movies - 661k

All 7pm preview movies - 632k

All A24 movies - 463k

All movies - 647k

 

I added A24 movies since they tend to be smaller releases.  I'm going to hope for 500k tonight.

 

Mack & Rita T-1 hr comps

 - Easter Sunday - .315x (157k) 

 - Vengeance - .38x

 - Mrs. Harris - .76x

All comedy movies - 123k

All PG-13 movies - 103k

All movies - 105k

 

I'll be shocked if this reports, but it looks like around 110k (plus a few EA shows)

 

ET T-1 hr comps

All movies - 167k

 

Probably wasn't worth tracking with only the ~350 IMAX theaters this weekend.

[Goldenhour36]

On 8/11/2022 at 5:10 AM, Goldenhour36 said:

 

 

 

 

Missed Tracking Day 5 

 

Fall (Tracking Day 6) 

 

AMC DINE-IN Disney Springs 24 

 

Thursday Showings: 

6:00 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 12 Tickets sold, 15.58% of seats (77) are sold (1 New Tickets, 9.09% Increase) 

9:00 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 10 Tickets sold, 12.99% of seats (77) are sold (1 New Tickets, 11.11% Increase) 

 

Friday Showings: 

11:15 AM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 2 Tickets sold, 2.60% of seats (77) are sold (No Changes) 

2:00 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 3 Tickets sold, 3.90% of seats (77) are sold (-2 New Tickets, -40.00% Decrease) 

4:45 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 8 Tickets sold, 10.39% of seats (77) are sold (1 New Tickets, 14.29% Increase) 

7:30 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 19 Tickets sold, 24.68% of seats (77) are sold (10 New Tickets, 90.00% Increase) 

10:15 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (77) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Total: 54 Tickets sold, 10.02% of seats (539) are sold  (11 New Tickets, 25.58% Increase) 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 6): 1640 Tickets sold, 32.81% of seats (4999) are sold (x0.333) 

Vengeance (Tracking Day 6): 123 Tickets sold, 18.39% of seats (669) are sold (x0.439) 

 

Island Cinemas (St.Simon) 

Movie is not playing at this theater 

 

Valdosta Cinemas 

 

Thursday Showings: 
6:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (-15 New Tickets, Glitch Error) 

8:45 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (-15 New Tickets, Glitch Error) 

 

Friday Showings: 

1:45 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (New Show) 

4:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (New Show) 

7:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (New Show) 

10:15 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (New Show) 

 

Total: 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (734) are sold  (-30 New Tickets, Glitch Error) 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 6): 25 Tickets sold, 0.82% of seats (3033) are sold (x0.000) 

Vengeance (Tracking Day 2- 2 more days until release): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (188) are sold (x1.000) 

 

SUM Total: 54 Tickets sold, 4.24% of seats (1273) are sold (-19 New Tickets, Glitch Error from Valdosta Cinemas) 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 6): 1671 Tickets sold, 18.39% of seats (9084) are sold (x0.032) ($625,238) 

Vengeance (Tracking Day 6): 123 Tickets sold, 14.35% of seats (857) are sold (x0.439) ($289,048)  

 

 

 

Fall (Final Tracking) (Previews start at 6:00 PM) 

 

AMC DINE-IN Disney Springs 24 

 

Thursday Showings: 

6:00 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 24 Tickets sold, 31.17% of seats (77) are sold (13 New Tickets, 118.18% Increase) 

9:00 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 12 Tickets sold, 15.58% of seats (77) are sold (3 New Tickets, 33.33% Increase) 

 

Friday Showings: 

11:15 AM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 2 Tickets sold, 2.60% of seats (77) are sold (No Changes) 

2:00 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 6 Tickets sold, 7.79% of seats (77) are sold (1 New Ticket, 20% Increase) 

4:45 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 8 Tickets sold, 10.39% of seats (77) are sold (1 New Tickets, 14.29% Increase) 

7:30 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 18 Tickets sold, 23.38% of seats (77) are sold (9 New Tickets, 100% Increase) 

10:15 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 2 Tickets sold, 2.60% of seats (77) are sold (2 New Tickets, 100% Increase) 

 

Total: 72 Tickets sold, 13.36% of seats (539) are sold (29 New Tickets, 67.44% Increase) 

Comps 

Nope (Final Tracking): 1746 Tickets sold, 34.93% of seats (4999) are sold (x0.041) 

Vengeance (Final Tracking): 152 Tickets sold, 22.72% of seats (669) are sold (x0.474) 

 

Island Cinemas (St.Simon) 

Theater is not playing this movie 

 

Valdosta Cinemas 

 

Thursday Showings: 

6:00 PM (Standard): 3 Tickets sold, 1.99% of seats (151) are sold (3 New Tickets, 100% Increase) 

8:45 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seat (151) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Friday Showings: 

1:45 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

4:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

7:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (No Changes) 

10:15 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Total: 3 Tickets sold, 0.41% of seats (734) are sold (3 New Tickets, 100% Increase) 

Comps 

Nope (Final Tracking): 47 Tickets sold, 1.55% of seats (3033) are sold (x0.064) 

Vengeance (Final Tracking): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (188) are sold (x3.000) 

 

SUM Total:  

75 Tickets sold, 5.89% of seats (1273) are sold (32 New Tickets, 74.42% Increase) 

Comps 

Nope (Final Tracking): 1799 Tickets sold, 19.80% of seats (9084) are sold (x0.042) ($820,624) 

Vengeance (Final Tracking): 152 Tickets sold, 17.74% of seats (857) are sold (x0.493) ($324,603) 

 

Average Final Comps: ($572,613) According to Comps, Fall will likely open around $1.3-1.7M.  

 

 

 

 

Edited August 13, 2022 by Goldenhour36

[Krissykins]

27 minutes ago, M37 said:

Universal has never been shy about going super wide on OW even for weaker releases, basically flooding the market. Marry Me, Evan Hansen and even Firestater went 3400+ despite not clearing $8M (though DEH they probably thought would), likely with understanding of more flexibility/limited shows in week 2. Wouldn’t read much into that TC figure 

I’m not reading much into it, just sharing that it’s going very wide. 
 

I’ve noticed most of your replies to me are of the “well, actually….” variety. I could do without it. I’ve been following box office for 20 years. 
 

Maybe it’s not intentional, but it’s a bad vibe. 

[Tinalera]

Maybe not the best source but its popping up a number of sites thought it was applicable here in the context of when we discuss box offices going into new year WB considering scrapping flash movie

 

 

https://www.gamesradar.com/flash-warner-bros-ezra-miller-scrapped/

 

Edited August 11, 2022 by Tinalera

[poweranimals]

Well I can't find E.T. playing anywhere near me.

[poweranimals]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Maybe not the best source but its popping up a number of sites thought it was applicable here in the context of when we discuss box offices going into new year WB considering scrapping flash movie

 

 

https://www.gamesradar.com/flash-warner-bros-ezra-miller-scrapped/

 

Yeah, there's no way they're scrapping it.

[charlie Jatinder]

Harkins 11th Aug 

 

Bodies Bodies Bodies - 831/10699 (50 showings) $9,865

Almost entirety of it come from walk-ups as sales yday were 131. $500-600K previews. 

 

Fall - 492/12130 (65 showings) $5622

$300-350K previews.

 

[John2015]

13 hours ago, M37 said:

Universal has never been shy about going super wide on OW even for weaker releases, basically flooding the market. Marry Me, Evan Hansen and even Firestater went 3400+ despite not clearing $8M (though DEH they probably thought would), likely with understanding of more flexibility/limited shows in week 2. Wouldn’t read much into that TC figure 

 

 

For a major studio, it is very cheap to do super wide release in digital era.  (35mm print was very expensive, but DCP print is much cheaper.)

Edited August 12, 2022 by John2015

[M37]

30 minutes ago, John2015 said:

 

 

For a major studio, it is very cheap to do super wide release in digital era.  (35mm print was very expensive, but DCP print is much cheaper.)

True, but my main point (poorly articulated) was more that Universal in particular has a longstanding habit of "shotgunning" their mid and lower tier releases into wide release. Most of the other studios show far more correlation between TC and OW gross, not bothering to scrape those minimal returns from the tail end of the distribution, but Universal doesn't really care

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/5/2022 at 1:04 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Bullet Train	3,499	94,719		79,936		14,783	5,140	0
Super-Pets	3,474	51,294	-33.66%	50,714	251.38	580	0	0
Easter Sunday	2,846	49,821		49,729		92	0	0
Minions 2	2,702	37,109	-12.79%	36,748	257.67	361	3	267
Nope	2,638	35,492	-38.06%	35,201	324.42	291	3	0
Thor 4	2,771	35,132	-14.02%	34,857	322.46	275	15	150
Crawdads Sing	2,623	29,787	-7.36%	29,689	235.40	98	0	0
Top Gun 2	2,394	28,278	-2.91%	27,952	288.67	326	13	0
Elvis	1,950	16,913	-13.97%	16,893	292.13	20	0	0
The Black Phone	1,080	9,222	-18.66%	9,213	220.49	9	0	0
Vengeance	935	8,969	-28.66%	8,969	123.88	0	0	0
Jurassic World 3	968	7,044	-29.46%	6,973	215.30	71	0	59
Mrs. Harris	575	4,203	-25.72%	4,197	166.30	6	0	0
Marcel the Shell	414	2,730	-58.16%	2,730	97.81	0	0	0
Sita Ramam	296	2,717		2,717		0	0	0
Paws of Fury	445	2,296	-82.20%	2,296	58.68	0	0	0
Everything Everywhere	282	1,295	-83.39%	1,295	86.11	0	0	0

 

US Showtime Sample for 8/5/22 Weekend

 

OW shows comps

Bullet Train 8/2 EA - 887 (807 TC)

Bullet Train - 94,719 (3,499 TC)

 - Uncharted - 85,247 (3,358)

 - Jungle Cruise - 94,654 (3,334)

 - Halloween Kills- 92,661 (3,143)

Easter Sunday - 49,821 (2,846 TC)

 - Dog - 48,752 (3,099)

 - Marry Me - 53,179 (3,172)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 50,762 (2,985)

 

T-1 Week

Bodies Bodies Bodies - 13,255 (917 TC)

Fall - 12,629 (868 TC)

 - Malignant - 13,875 (1,363)

 - Nightmare Alley - 14,207 (1,231)

 - Studio 666 - 13,939 (1,254)

 - Cry Macho - 12,731 (1,305)

 

(Just gonna use the same comps here since the counts are so similar

 

Mack & Rita - 9,888 (689 TC)

 - The Outfit - 9,823 (821)

 - Vengeance - 9,512 (658)

 - Mr. Malcolm's List - 10,621 (813)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Dragon Ball Super - 7,254 (2,180 TC)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 

Beast - 2,330 (845 TC)

(Still no AMC listings yet)

 - Resident Evil - 2,532 (936)

 - Moonfall - 2,260 (1,111)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX
Bullet Train	3,432	56,805	-29.50%	50,126	317.04	6,679	1,232
Super-Pets	3,147	40,263	-21.51%	40,056	215.47	207	0
Top Gun 2	2,663	33,153	17.24%	30,515	247.76	2,638	470
Minions 2	2,652	32,774	-11.68%	32,542	191.58	232	0
Easter Sunday	2,842	32,359	-23.88%	32,302	109.33	57	0
Thor 4	2,661	31,564	-10.16%	31,423	219.34	141	0
Nope	2,483	28,896	-18.58%	28,846	239.51	50	0
Crawdads	2,453	27,073	-9.11%	27,022	190.52	51	0
Mack & Rita	1,686	24,728		24,681		47	0
Fall	1,398	21,684		20,501		1,183	0
Bodies Bodies	1,179	19,639		19,633		6	0
Elvis	1,817	14,948	-11.62%	14,923	232.99	25	0
The Black Phone	842	6,929	-24.86%	6,929	163.32	0	0
Emliy the Criminal	454	6,665		6,665		0	0
Laal Singh Chaddha	450	4,811		4,712		99	0
Jurassic World 3	644	4,657	-33.89%	4,637	169.39	20	0
Summering	258	3,861		3,861		0	0
Mrs. Harris	504	3,706	-11.82%	3,703	138.03	3	0
Vengeance	402	3,164	-64.72%	3,164	80.91	0	0
E.T.	360	2,554		0		2,554	2,554
Marcel the Shell	195	1,213	-55.57%	1,213	126.55	0	0

 

US Showtime Sample for 8/12/22 Weekend

 

OW shows comps

Bodies Bodies Bodies - 19,639 (1,179 TC) (calling this OW despite expansion)

Fall - 21,684 (1,398 TC)

Mack & Rita - 24,728 (1,686 TC)

 

All pretty similar range.  Here are some other openers within the range:

 - Journal for Jordan - 19,572 (2,055)

 - The Cursed - 20,717 (1,609)

 - Infinite Storm - 19,579 (1,481)

 - Nightmare Alley - 24,922 (1,911)

 - King's Daughter - 26,174 (1,987)

 

T-1 Week

Dragon Ball Super - 47,052 (2,460 TC) (8,941 PLF)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672) (11,420 PLF)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771) (7,798 IMAX)

 

Beast - 31,538 (2,106 TC) (3,420 PLF)

 - Halloween Kills - 32,962 (2,343)

 - Moonfall - 33,048 (2,259)

 - Black Phone - 30,912 (2,156)

 - Crawdads - 29,677 (2,121)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Three Thousand Years of Longing - 1,576 (692 TC)

 - Family Camp - 1,549 (532)

 - West Side Story - 1,507 (613)

The Invitation - 231 (101 TC)

[Legion Again]

Do you have eeaao expansion stats on hand (tracked shows/TCs)?

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Do you have eeaao expansion stats on hand (tracked shows/TCs)?

Yeah, it expanded to 15,424 shows in 1,060 theaters for 4/8 weekend (actual 1,250 TC).  Then to 22,124 shows in 1,941 theaters the next week (actual 2,220 TC).