The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[GOGODanca]

To outdo NWH Re-Release with less than half the screens/no holiday weekend would be impressive

[Ryan Reynolds]

11 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

A $10 million OW for a re-release of a movie from 2009 would be insane in today’s landscape. 

it would be good,  not insane 

[Eric Deetz]

59 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

https://deadline.com/2022/09/harry-styles-dont-worry-darling-weekend-box-office-1235122999/

 

Is the 7-10 million they predict for the avatar re-release in line with what tracking suggests? 

 

Feels a little too high, but on par with NWH’s re-release would still be quite good

[TwoMisfits]

25 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

it would be good,  not insane 

 

Agreed.  AMC and Regal subscribers have to use their tickets on something every week, so just a certain percent of their "will see anything in Imax" subscribers would push Avatar into the couple million BO zone.

Edited September 20, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Ryan Reynolds]

46 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

To outdo NWH Re-Release with less than half the screens/no holiday weekend would be impressive

Avatar will have a whole new generation that didn't experience the original in theaters , it should do better in theory

[Alexdube]

44 minutes ago, The Eric King said:

Feels a little too high, but on par with NWH’s re-release would still be quite good

 

Quote

The Re-Release of Avatar had today for Friday 956 sold tickets in 7 theaters.
Up ok (for a Tuesday jump) 15.5% since yesterday.
Comps (both counted on Tuesday for Friday): Jaws had 389 sold tickets

and NWH had 218 sold tickets (but with the 3$ Saturday).

And E.T. had on Wednesday = one day later 422 sold tickets.

Not bad at all.

 

Maybe I'm missing something, but how are these numbers suggesting anything "on par" with NWH? Avatar has far more tickets sold and without the "boost" from the 3$ Saturday tickets.

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

 

 

Maybe I'm missing something, but how are these numbers suggesting anything "on par" with NWH? Avatar has far more tickets sold and without the "boost" from the 3$ Saturday tickets.

 

Using comps for just one movie and from just one tracker is always a bit of danger.  Especially for lower grossing movies, and double especially for something that doesn't have much of a current track record.

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

-BOT BORKED AND DOUBLE POSTED-

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Porthos

[Alexdube]

Quote

Using comps for just one movie and from just one tracker is always a bit of danger.  Especially for lower grossing movies, and double especially for something that doesn't have much of a current track record.

 

Right but on the other I haven't seen any numbers here to suggest the deadline tracking "seems high" or something on par with NWH

[ThomasNicole]

NWH did 7M on 4000 theaters and with 15 minutes of new scenes 

 

Avatar is the exact same movie and will be in just 1800 theaters, if it manage to gross the same, it's a great result. If opens near 10M, is excellent imo and bodes very well for the sequel.

 

I don't think the "it should do better because a new generation can experience it in theaters" is a realistic pov, new generations don't really care about watching old movies on theaters when they can watch it on streaming. Of course Disney take it from D+ but people had 13 years to watch it, and everyone know it will be back on D+ before the sequel drops so they can watch it later. 

 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

-BOT BORKED AND DOUBLE POSTED-

 

That was my bad, technically. Running some system updates and spring (fall) cleaning on a few plugins. Other community-related updates pertaining to rules and admin subjects coming in the very near future, as well.

[Menor the Destroyer]

22 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

 

Right but on the other I haven't seen any numbers here to suggest the deadline tracking "seems high" or something on par with NWH

The issue is that it's in a lot fewer theaters.

[Alexdube]

41 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

NWH did 7M on 4000 theaters and with 15 minutes of new scenes 

 

Avatar is the exact same movie and will be in just 1800 theaters, if it manage to gross the same, it's a great result. If opens near 10M, is excellent imo and bodes very well for the sequel.

 

I don't think the "it should do better because a new generation can experience it in theaters" is a realistic pov, new generations don't really care about watching old movies on theaters when they can watch it on streaming. Of course Disney take it from D+ but people had 13 years to watch it, and everyone know it will be back on D+ before the sequel drops so they can watch it later. 

 

 

 

I don't want to derail the thread too far from straight tracking numbers but since you took it there let me just say this:

 

- It is still the highest grossing movie of all time after 13 years and well overdue for a proper re-release

- It won't be the exact same movie, they are proposing an enhanced experience and with at the very least a small added bonus as confirmed by James Cameron himself

- It did 57M in a China re-release (this time it was actually the same exact movie, and probably with much less marketing, AND without any Avatar 2 related marketing)

- It is a movie that is mostly known as a theater experience, something you can only get by paying for a movie ticket. I'm sure at least a few people have heard of that fact and want to know what all the fuss was about (without counting those who will just want to live it again).

 

And I also think for sure some parents who saw it and loved the experience will be taking their kids to it who were too young to have seen it the first time

Edited September 20, 2022 by Alexdube

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Twin Cities Thursday Previews:

 

Don't Worry Darling:

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 10 theaters	34	165	427	4619	9.24

 

Really great weekend jump (more than 1.5x since Friday). I don't know man, I get people feeling gloomy, but this isn't slowing down here so far lol. We'll see this week's jumps, those will be very telling.

 

Twin Cities Thursday Previews:

 

Don't Worry Darling:

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	57	99	526	7676	6.85

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	23.19
3-Day:	100.76

 

Very solid indeed, and theaters around me are adding a ton of new showings. This is looking like the latest MCU entry out here (blah blah I know it'll be frontloaded let me jest in peace). Seriously though, no signs of slowing down.

Edited September 21, 2022 by abracadabra1998

[Old Spice]

15 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Thursday Previews:

 

Don't Worry Darling:

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	57	99	526	7676	6.85

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	23.19
3-Day:	100.76

 

Very solid indeed, and theaters around me are adding a ton of new showings. This is looking like the latest MCU entry out here (blah blah I know it'll be frontloaded let me jest in peace). Seriously though, no signs of slowing down.

 

A BUNCH of new showtimes added in Salt Lake today as well. And the surge continued in the suburbs, even as SLC had it best day since day 1. LOL at WB predicting $17M in that Deadline article. They know exactly what's happening on the ground.

[charlie Jatinder]

$17M is fairly likely. I am thinking high teens to low twenty for now.

[charlie Jatinder]

It doesn't really matter if you are releasing in 1800 cinemas or 4000 cinemas when you are opening to $10M. Removing 2k+ cinemas from 4k will not make any impact as $10M is low enough to not have any excess demand which can be covered by even 1K cinemas quite easily and wide enough to not miss any market geographically.

Edited September 21, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It doesn't really matter if you are releasing in 1800 cinemas or 4000 cinemas when you are opening to $10M. Removing 2k+ cinemas from 4k will not make any impact as $10M is low enough to not have any excess demand which can be covered by even 1K cinemas quite easily and wide enough to not miss any market geographically.

It matters if you're comparing numbers from the same sample of theaters. 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

It matters if you're comparing numbers from the same sample of theaters. 

Oh sure. That will happen. I was talking about general performance as some of the comments above were like 1800 theaters will be limiting Avatar's performance.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Don't Worry Darling Marcus Theaters:

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 285

Seats Sold: 3611/41731

 

1.35x Where the Crawdads Sing (2.35m)

1.40x Elvis (3.85m)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 562

Seats Sold: 4242/79575

 

0.67x Elvis (6.2m)