The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[XXR & Friends]

1 hour ago, Legion By Night said:

From 30 to 191, would look more like 30-59-58-44

I think this will get back towards the MCU Saturday trend of +15-20% over true Friday.

[Joyous Legion]

Just now, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

I think this will get back towards the MCU Saturday trend of +15-20% over true Friday.

Not when the true Friday is inflated 15-20% from being a holiday 😛 

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Not when the true Friday is inflated 15-20% from being a holiday 😛 

I keep forgetting Veterans Day is Friday. Im still hoping for a slight Saturday increase 🥹

[jedijake]

6 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

I keep forgetting Veterans Day is Friday. Im still hoping for a slight Saturday increase 🥹

There could be. A lot of schools are not closed this Friday (opting to close today for Elections instead).

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-3	Jax	6	140	834	3,277	19,242	17.03%
		Phx	7	140	771	2,843	19,608	14.50%
		Ral	8	137	900	4,248	16,020	26.52%
	Total		21	417	2,505	10,368	54,870	18.90%
BP2 DF	T-3	Jax	2	4	10	158	355	44.51%
	Total		2	4	10	158	355	44.51%
Glass Onion	T-16	Jax	4	16	5**	84	1,847	4.55%
		Phx	2	8	11	72	736	9.78%
		Ral	2	11	22	132	896	14.73%
	Total		8	35	38	288	3,479	8.28%

*All new sales since Thursday morning

**Including18 lost tickets in one show - could have been an error on Thursday

 

Black Panther T-3 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.895x (38.22m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.176x (34.1m)

 - DS2 - .68x (24.53m)

 - NWH - .43x (21.65m)

 - Batman - 1.945x (34.23m)

 

Glass Onion T-16 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD + EA - .72x (4.54m)

 - F9 - .571x (4.06m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - 1.24x (5.56m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .125x (2.41m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-2	Jax	6	138	255	3,532	18,688	18.90%
		Phx	7	155	474	3,317	20,458	16.21%
		Ral	8	139	338	4,586	16,177	28.35%
	Total		21	432	1,067	11,435	55,323	20.67%
BP2 DF	T-2	Jax	2	4	11	169	355	47.61%
	Total		2	4	11	169	355	47.61%
Glass Onion	T-15	Jax	4	16	11	95	1,847	5.14%
		Phx	2	8	4	76	736	10.33%
		Ral	2	11	9	141	896	15.74%
	Total		8	35	24	312	3,479	8.97%
She Said	T-9	Jax	5	11	2	5	1,042	0.48%
		Phx	3	6	0	2	352	0.57%
		Ral	5	10	0	4	598	0.67%
	Total		13	27	2	11	1,992	0.55%
The Menu	T-9	Jax	4	10	0	14	966	1.45%
		Phx	5	12	9	33	1,389	2.38%
		Ral	8	20	-1	36	1,495	2.41%
	Total		17	42	8	83	3,850	2.16%
The Menu (EA)	T-7	Jax	1	1	5	5	81	6.17%
		Phx	3	3	5	6	239	2.51%
	Total		4	4	10	11	320	3.44%

 

Black Panther T-2 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.799x (36.94m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.188x (34.44m)

 - DS2 - .674x (24.26m)*

 - NWH - .447x (22.33m)

 - Batman - 1.823x (32.08m)

*DS2 comp was reported as 23.53m yesterday instead of 24.53

 

Glass Onion T-15 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD + EA - .714x (4.5m)

 - F9 - .577x (4.09m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - 1.07x (4.82m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .129x (2.48m)

 

The Menu T-9 comps

 - Amsterdam - 1.6x (878k)

 - Crawdads - .415x (830k)

 

She Said T-9 comps

 - Elvis - .04x (124k)

 - House of Gucci - .297x (386k)

 - King Richard - .393x (762k)

[filmlover]

In addition to the poster and trailer just dropping, tickets are now on sale for The Whale on December 9. Looks like it is indeed opening limited that day because only LA/NYC are on sale.

[Menor the Destroyer]

49 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

I keep forgetting Veterans Day is Friday. Im still hoping for a slight Saturday increase 🥹

I think it's gonna be a drop unless WOM is absolutely stellar (and my guess is that WOM will be merely solid).

[YM!]

1 hour ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

I think this will get back towards the MCU Saturday trend of +15-20% over true Friday.

I think that trend for the most part is gone mainly because the franchise is getting more frontloaded.

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

If possible Previews separate and rest of the weekend. day by day should not matter that much. But any data would be appreciated. 

 

Previews*

MTC1 - 8,952 (582)

MTC2 - 6,162 (309)

MTC3 - 6,699 (488)

Total - 36,138 (3,248)

 

*These include the ~200 double feature shows

 

Fri-Sun

MTC1 - 31,276 (581)

MTC2 - 27,360 (309)

MTC3 - 32,148 (489)

Total - 146,352 (3,203)

 

Previews breakdown

 

Time	Shows	%
3:00	2,494	6.90%
3:01-3:59	2,912	8.06%
4:00-4:59	4,351	12.04%
5:00-5:59	3,270	9.05%
6:00-6:59	4,489	12.42%
7:00-7:59	5,621	15.55%
8:00-8:59	4,003	11.08%
9:00-9:59	3,409	9.43%
10:00-10:59	3,216	8.90%
11:00-11:59	1,697	4.70%
12am+	676	1.87%

[Liiviig 1998]

32+60+58+44 for 194m. 

This looks good to atleast finish above DS2 . Anything above 175m works good enough  for me.

[Verrows]

4 hours ago, jedijake said:

A lot of uncertainty that depends on today's RT scores and walk-ups. The first BP surprised us all with the weekend hold. Veterans Day also makes things less certain.

 

Seems most comps point to around $28 million for previews. However, there are a few hold-outs (Megaplex, Denver, and Santikos) that could pull it lower. I think after DSMoM and ThLT having higher preview numbers, expectations may be a bit tempered. Despite preview numbers being lower than ThorLT, it will have a higher OW. However, while it is expected to be lower than DSMoM, I don't think it will be an even ratio based on the preview number.

 

However, things REALLY need to shoot up this week.

Hopefully things do pick up! It would be quite shocking if it didn't. The first teaser was sooo good and projected a sense of quality. That's what I felt and I know I wasn't alone because that was the chatter going around after the teaser dropped. After all that it would just be quite strange for sales not to reflect that.

[Verrows]

4 hours ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

As of right now I’m thinking 30-52-62-47 for 191.

Any shot at $200M? I wonder what your proposed $191M would be in admissions. Would that be a fairly big drop from the first one or no?

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Any shot at $200M? I wonder what your proposed $191M would be in admissions. Would that be a fairly big drop from the first one or no?

More than 20% drop in admissions 

[jedijake]

2 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think it's gonna be a drop unless WOM is absolutely stellar (and my guess is that WOM will be merely solid).

What is your definition of "merely solid"?

[GOGODanca]

Black Panther WF:

 

94 on RT after 48 reviews with avg rating of 7.8/10

 

82 score at average 7/10 rating from top critics (11)

 

 

For comparison to Black Panther:

 

96 RT score with avg rating of 8.3/10

 

100 score from top critics with avg rating of 8.6/10

 

[XXR & Friends]

54 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Any shot at $200M? I wonder what your proposed $191M would be in admissions. Would that be a fairly big drop from the first one or no?

Definitely has a shot at $200M and it wouldn’t surprise me if it did.

 

As far as admissions, yea it would be about a 17-20% drop for the same amount of money. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Black Panther 2	PLF	32	562	3,609	7,298	49.45%	$15.30	$55,222.16
		Standard	93	1,128	3,205	10,850	29.54%	$11.51	$36,886.29
	Total		125	1,690	6,814	18,148	37.55%	$13.52	$92,108.45
	Black Panther 2 DF	Standard	2	25	86	317	27.13%	$23.82	$2,048.52
	Total		2	25	86	317	27.13%	$23.82	$2,048.52
T-4	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	PLF	67	1,350	4,104	13,617	30.14%	$15.22	$62,451.78
		Standard	84	1,009	2,178	10,984	19.83%	$10.97	$23,901.55
	Total		151	2,359	6,282	24,601	25.54%	$13.75	$86,353.33

*New sales since Wednesday

 

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Black Panther 2	N	95	1,418	5,943	13,669	43.48%	$13.92	$82,749.12
		Y	30	272	871	4,479	19.45%	$10.75	$9,359.33
	Total		125	1,690	6,814	18,148	37.55%	$13.52	$92,108.45
T-4	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	N	74	1,641	4,669	12,448	37.51%	$14.68	$68,550.50
		Y	77	718	1,613	12,153	13.27%	$11.04	$17,802.83
	Total		151	2,359	6,282	24,601	25.54%	$13.75	$86,353.33

*New sales since Wednesday

 

BP2 Thu T-3 comps

 - NWH - .398x (19.9m)

 - DS2 - .54x (19.46m)

 - Thor 4 - .9x (26.1m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.347x (29.09m)

 

BP2 Fri T-4 comps

 - NWH - .441x (31.72m)

 - DS2 - .642x (35.11m)

 - Thor 4 - Missed

 - Batman - 1.352x (47.33m)

 

A bit disappointing in Santikos so far.  Hoping things pick up in the next couple of days!  Friday is at 92.2% of Thursday; at the same point, NWH Friday was at 83.2% and DS2 was at 77.6%. Batman was nearly the same at 91.9% of Thursday at this point in time.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Black Panther 2	PLF	34	159	3,768	7,432	50.70%	$15.27	$57,527.22
		Standard	126	449	3,654	13,462	27.14%	$11.51	$42,075.49
	Total		160	608	7,422	20,894	35.52%	$13.42	$99,602.71
	Black Panther 2 DF	Standard	2	6	92	317	29.02%	$23.82	$2,191.44
	Total		2	6	92	317	29.02%	$23.82	$2,191.44
T-3	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	PLF	67	396	4,500	13,617	33.05%	$15.12	$68,045.75
		Standard	90	368	2,546	11,608	21.93%	$10.92	$27,803.29
	Total		157	764	7,046	25,225	27.93%	$13.60	$95,849.04

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Black Panther 2	N	122	503	6,446	15,774	40.86%	$13.83	$89,166.45
		Y	38	105	976	5,120	19.06%	$10.69	$10,436.26
	Total		160	608	7,422	20,894	35.52%	$13.42	$99,602.71
T-3	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	N	77	420	5,089	12,760	39.88%	$14.60	$74,304.89
		Y	80	344	1,957	12,465	15.70%	$11.01	$21,544.15
	Total		157	764	7,046	25,225	27.93%	$13.60	$95,849.04

 

BP2 Thu T-2 comps

 - NWH - .415x (20.73m)

 - DS2 - .548x (19.71m)

 - Thor 4 - .898x (26.04m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.326x (28.65m)

 

BP2 Fri T-3 comps

 - NWH - .46x (33.13m)

 - DS2 - .646x (35.34m)

 - Thor 4 - Missed

 - Batman - 1.312x (45.93m)

 

Slowly we move forward...

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

More than 20% drop in admissions 

 

1 hour ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

Definitely has a shot at $200M and it wouldn’t surprise me if it did.

 

As far as admissions, yea it would be about a 17-20% drop for the same amount of money. 

Thanks guys! A little disappointing to see that big a drop in admission but also completely understandable. As good as this movie looks - and I'm sure it will deliver! - Chadwick Boseman was Black Panther (not just the character but the brand as a whole). Also there's the undeniable fact that movies in theatres are losing their audiences bit by bit, even Marvel movies. The losses are just masked by extreme inflation.

[Verrows]

4 hours ago, jedijake said:

There could be. A lot of schools are not closed this Friday (opting to close today for Elections instead).

Yeah this is my thought as well. I don't think a lot of schools are off and it's not a day off work for most so I don't see how much of a bump Friday will get. Definitely a bit of a bump but I'm hoping not so much that Saturday will DROP from true Friday. 

 

I miss Marvel Saturdays. Heck, I miss how Saturdays were at the box office in general. It's weird because you'd think after covid it would be the opposite, that there wouldn't be more front loading on opening day.

[M37]

41 minutes ago, Verrows said:

I miss how Saturdays were at the box office in general. It's weird because you'd think after covid it would be the opposite, that there wouldn't be more front loading on opening day.

I'm of the opinion that post-COVID, the GA for theatrical has shrunk, and so we're seeing more frontloadedness, as there is smaller pool of casual/occasional viewers on Sat/Sun as compared to the more frequent moviegoers on Thur/Fri. With that said, the titles that tend to break that trend typically had smaller share of the audience being in the while/male/18-35 demo buckets