The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

18 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Violent Night Harkins

 

THU - 1487/23623 (91 showings) $16,247 + 414/2325 (15 showings) $5024 (Members Screening)
FRI - 894/75767 (276 showings) $9862

 

Previews looks like should be around $1.05-1.2M.

 

FRI had good increase yesterday. Final number probably around 7K. True FRI can be $3.8-4.2M range.

FRI - 6202/75993 (277 showings) $67,270

 

Looks like $3.6-3.7M FRI. A bit lower than what FRI pre-sales were suggesting, but still fine. Probably $12-14M weekend.

[Porthos]

On 12/1/2022 at 11:35 PM, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	18539	21338	2799	13.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

104

 

T-14 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	457.35		69	612		0/75	11219/11831	5.17%		2915	96.02%		23.33m
Bats	68.49		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		21117	13.25%		14.79m
TGM	69.03		259	4055		0/259	31878/35933	11.28%		11474	24.39%		13.29m
JWD	107.86		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	25.52%		19.42m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       625/7309  [8.55% sold]
Matinee:    370/2671  [13.85% | 13.22% of all tickets sold]
3D:        1903/15634  [12.17% | 67.99% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1513/7439  [20.34% | 58.06% of all tickets sold]

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	145	18537	21484	2947	13.72%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	146
Total Seats Sold Today	148

 

T-13 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	456.19		34	646		0/75	11185/11831	5.46%		2915	101.10%		23.27m
Bats	69.52		152	4239		0/285	31225/35464	11.95%		21117	13.96%		15.02m
TGM	68.28		261	4316		0/259	31617/35933	12.01%		11474	25.68%		13.15m
JWD	108.87		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		10966	26.87%		19.60m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        664/7309  [9.08% sold]
Matinee:     384/2671  [14.38% | 13.03% of all tickets sold]
3D:         2025/15634  [12.95% | 68.71% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1591/7439  [21.39% | 57.92% of all tickets sold]

[Joyous Legion]

The comp movement is still pointing to sub 20 imo, but Fri and Sat are pretty cracked. I wonder what the best IMs are for say, 6PM or earlier 15M+ previews, cause that record might be in play.   
 

Also, this is my 20,000th post 

 

Edit: Looked it up and it’s batb with 10.7x, so… no. The best with a 6 or earlier start and 18M+ is Incredibles 2 with 9.88x. Now that’s some real “kid movie” shit.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Legion By Night

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/2/2022 at 8:31 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-13	Jax	5	69	62	888	10,350	8.58%
		Phx	6	70	44	606	10,839	5.59%
		Ral	8	64	31	776	8,035	9.66%
	Total		19	203	137	2,270	29,224	7.77%
Puss in Boots	T-19	Jax	5	29	0	8	3,051	0.26%
		Phx	5	25	0	14	3,084	0.45%
		Ral	6	34	0	23	3,922	0.59%
	Total		16	88	0	45	10,057	0.45%

 

Avatar 2 T-13 comps

 - Eternals - missed

 - TG2 - .81x (15.62m)

 - JW3 - .838x (15.08m)

 - F9 - 3.55x (25.18m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - 5.54x (28.79m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.84x (23.05m)

 

Puss in Boots T-19 comps

 - Sonic 2 - missed

 - Minions 2 - .274x (2.95m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-12	Jax	5	69	62	950	10,350	9.18%
		Phx	6	70	21	627	10,839	5.78%
		Ral	8	64	65	841	8,035	10.47%
	Total		19	203	148	2,418	29,224	8.27%
Puss in Boots	T-18	Jax	5	29	12	20	3,051	0.66%
		Phx	5	25	-5	9	3,084	0.29%
		Ral	6	34	3	26	3,922	0.66%
	Total		16	88	10	55	10,057	0.55%

 

Avatar 2 T-12 comps

 - Eternals - missed

 - TG2 - .808x (15.59m)

 - JW3 - .862x (15.52m)

 - F9 - 3.44x (24.42m)

 - Ghostbusters - 5.83x (24.18m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.65x (21.92m)

 

Puss in Boots T-18 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .212x (1.05m)

 - Minions 2 - missed

[Eric the Minion]

On 12/2/2022 at 12:22 AM, Eric Claus said:

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	1852	26516	6.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 60

 

Comp

2.926x of Venom 2 T-14 (33.94M)

3.278x of No Time to Die T-14 (20.65M)

2.903x of Dune T-14 (14.8M)

4.209x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-14 (25.25M)

1.395x of Top Gun 2 T-14 (26.86M)

1.105x of Jurassic World 3 T-14 (19.89M)

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	1954	26516	7.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 102

 

Comp

2.489x of F9 T-13 (17.67M)

2.895x of Venom 2 T-13 (33.58M)

3.340x of No Time to Die T-13 (21.04M)

2.899x of Dune T-13 (14.78M)

3.947x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-13 (23.68M)

1.356x of Top Gun 2 T-13 (26.12M)

1.118x of Jurassic World 3 T-13 (20.12M)

[Eric the Minion]

On 12/2/2022 at 12:34 AM, Eric Claus said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	489	11535	4.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

Total Seats WITHOUT Early Access: 22

 

Comp w/ Early Access

0.332x of Sing 2 T-21 (3.23M)

1.332x of Sonic 2 T-21 (8.33M)

9.226x of Minions 2 T-21 (99.18M)

 

Comp w/out Early Access

0.333x of Sing 2 T-21 (2.71M)

0.060x of Sonic 2 T-21 (375K)

0.415x of Minions 2 T-21 (4.46M)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	489	11535	4.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

Total Seats WITHOUT Early Access: 22

 

Comp w/ Early Access

0.332x of Sing 2 T-21 (3.23M)

1.219x of Sonic 2 T-21 (7.62M)

7.087x of Minions 2 T-21 (76.18M)

 

Comp w/out Early Access

0.333x of Sing 2 T-21 (2.71M)

0.055x of Sonic 2 T-21 (343K)

0.319x of Minions 2 T-21 (3.43M)

[ZackM]

21 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	2	7	9	6	14
Seats Added	489	866	2,157	705	2,865
Seats Sold	3,282	2,838	2,294	2,378	3,195
12/1/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	4,442	74,607	743,420	10.04%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	12	36	97
ATP
$19.07

 

 

New comps for The Batman and Maverick.  For now I'm using Thursday-only numbers for these with estimated true Thursday preview dollars.  If anyone sees a good reason to take early access screenings into account I can adjust things.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	2	7	9	6
Seats Added	0	489	866	2,157	705
Seats Sold	3,225	3,282	2,838	2,294	2,378
12/2/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	4,442	77,832	743,420	10.47%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	12	42	107
ATP
$19.01

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

[M37]

On 12/2/2022 at 10:34 AM, M37 said:

But now that we've reached T-14, time to dust off the average chart! Some caveats first

• Does not include an potential ATP adjustments on my end, only what may already be incorporated by individual trackers
• The averages can be bouncy depending on which markets and comps are updated each day, but since the first week of sales have held relatively steady in $18-$19M range (more like $17M if you remove the clear Philly/TGM outlier, and we'll see if/how that changes once we get Alpha comps for TGM/Batman)
• LONG way to go; feel confident in saying a floor of mid-teens for Thursday is fairly well established, but with such a unique release, the ceiling is less well defined

Updating now that we have more Alpha comps

 

Sure looking (at least to me) like ~$18M is the target (for now). Fwiw, an 8.3x from that Thursday would be a $150M OW, or the lower end of the current PBO range. Certainly can make the case it goes higher, but also not unrealistic that it goes lower, given the pace needed to match for the last week ramp-up

Edited December 3, 2022 by M37

[Derpity]

Will be interesting to track vs TGM from here on out -- TGM got the mega review boost on Thursday, May 12th, two weeks before its Thursday start.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

Updating now that we have more Alpha comps

 

Sure looking (at least to me) like ~$18M is the target (for now). Fwiw, an 8.3x from that Thursday would be a $150M OW, or the lower end of the current PBO range. Certainly can make the case it goes higher, but also not unrealistic that it goes lower, given the pace needed to match for the last week ramp-up

I am sure its going to do > 20m previews. I dont think bats or any other SH movies are good comps. 

 

Avatar Ways of Water MTC2 previews(T -13) - 51674/484285 825835.85 3069 shows. 

[XXR & Friends]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Sure looking (at least to me) like ~$18M is the target (for now). Fwiw, an 8.3x from that Thursday would be a $150M OW, or the lower end of the current PBO range. Certainly can make the case it goes higher, but also not unrealistic that it goes lower, given the pace needed to match for the last week ramp-up

 

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am sure its going to do > 20m previews. I dont think bats or any other SH movies are good comps. 

 

Avatar Ways of Water MTC2 previews(T -13) - 51674/484285 825835.85 3069 shows. 

 

I view TGM and JWD as the best comps and Zack's weighted numbers are both pointing to $22M+. I'd be surprised if A2 came in below $20M. 

[charlie Jatinder]

30 minutes ago, M37 said:

Updating now that we have more Alpha comps

 

Sure looking (at least to me) like ~$18M is the target (for now). Fwiw, an 8.3x from that Thursday would be a $150M OW, or the lower end of the current PBO range. Certainly can make the case it goes higher, but also not unrealistic that it goes lower, given the pace needed to match for the last week ramp-up

One basic error here would be the comps you using are all admits. Gross wise A2 will be 10-15%, except Alpha.

Edited December 3, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[ZackM]

On 11/27/2022 at 2:49 PM, M37 said:

Hey @ZackM - with ATP being a potentially significant variable with Avatar, would you be able to reproduce these graphs, comparing sales to the non-MCU tentpoles (TGM, Batman & JWD)?

 

 

 

Here are the same graphs comparing JW:D, TG:M, and A:TWoW at T-13.

 

Some key values to help interpret the graphs...

 

As of T-13 the ATP for all tickets available:

JW:D - $15.60

TG:M - $14.84

A:TWoW - $16.52

 

And the ATP for all tickets sold:

JW:D - $17.93

TG:M - $17.65

A:TWoW - $19.01

 

 

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/1/2022 at 6:03 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

584

2354

24.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

368

1774

20.74%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2445	232	24555	9.96%	15	161

 

AMCs sold	1528
Cinemarks sold	342
Regals sold	329
Harkins sold	246

 

0.528x Thor L&T T-14 (15.32M)

0.863x Top Gun 2 T-14 (16.62M)

1.84x Eternals T-14 (17.48M)

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

603

2354

25.62%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

381

1774

21.48%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2678	233	24679	10.85%	15	163

 

AMCs sold	1634
Cinemarks sold	385
Regals sold	375
Harkins sold	284

 

0.542x Thor L&T T-12 (15.72M)

2.88x Dune T-12 (14.67M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/1/2022 at 6:08 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex [+2 days of sales]

 

T-14 Thursday(110 showings): 2426(+232)/26311

0.558x Thor L&T T-14 (16.18M)

0.762x Top Gun 2 T-14 (14.68M)

 

T-15 Friday(158 showings): 2462(+367)/38860

1.04x Thor L&T T-15 (42.11M)

0.817x Top Gun 2 T-15 (26.76M)

 

T-16 Saturday(154 showings): 2679(+318)/39553

2.32x Thor L&T T-16

1.40x Top Gun 2 T-16 (53.23M)

 

T-17 Sunday(175 showings): 1177(+165)/44851

2.74x Thor L&T T-17

2.66x Top Gun 2 T-17

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex [+2 days of sales]

 

T-12 Thursday(110 showings): 2649(+223)/26311

0.558x Thor L&T T-12 (16.18M)

 

T-13 Friday(158 showings): 2825(+363)/38860

1.06x Thor L&T T-13 (43.03M)

 

T-14 Saturday(154 showings): 3044(+365)/39553

2.24x Thor L&T T-14

 

T-15 Sunday(175 showings): 1358(+181)/44851

2.62x Thor L&T T-15

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/1/2022 at 6:12 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

 

T-14 Thursday(127 showings): 3866(+355/18613 ATP: $16.41

0.343x Thor L&T T-14 (9.95M)

1.24x Top Gun 2 Thurs only T-14 (18.93M)

 

T-15 Friday(193 showings): 4722(+579)/28426 ATP: $16.10

0.518x Thor L&T T-15 (21.02M)

1.32x Top Gun 2 T-15 (43.23M)

 

T-16 Saturday(199 showings): 5568(+588)/29268 ATP: $15.27

0.674x Thor L&T T-16 (28.39M)

1.88x Top Gun 2 T-16 (71.48M)

 

T-17 Sunday(194 showings): 3224(+470)/28335 ATP: $15.00

0.717x Thor L&T T-17 (23.31M)

2.30x Top Gun 2 T-17

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

 

T-12 Thursday(129 showings): 4280(+414)/18917 ATP: $16.35

0.353x Thor L&T T-12 (10.23M)

 

T-13 Friday(203 showings): 5445(+723)/29837 ATP: $16.10

0.551x Thor L&T T-13 (22.32M)

 

T-14 Saturday(214 showings): 6273(+705)/29268 ATP: $15.25

0.676x Thor L&T T-14 (28.49M)

 

T-15 Sunday(207 showings): 3664(+440)/30364 ATP: $15.02

0.724x Thor L&T T-15 (23.53M)

[M37]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am sure its going to do > 20m previews. I dont think bats or any other SH movies are good comps. 

 

2 hours ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

I view TGM and JWD as the best comps and Zack's weighted numbers are both pointing to $22M+. I'd be surprised if A2 came in below $20M.

 

There probably isn't a good comp at this grossing level*, but here's what we do know: huge demand for (limited capacity) PLF, Saturday out selling Thursday, and a skew in sales to especially early evening and also late afternoon shows

 

Avatwo is selling less like a tentpole movie and more like a concert or show, with a 3-week (holiday) engagement, in that ticket buyers aren't focused on seeing it right away but rather the right way - they're planning ahead. Just find it difficult to see that savvy/mature sales pattern suddenly flipping becoming a walk-up heavy, impulsive watch like JWD, especially with PLF and even 3D shows having a limited supply of seats

[Joyous Legion]

Looks more like a 5-10% atp advantage -- TGM comp will be below 20 soon and jwd will be hard to keep up with at the end. 18 very reasonable.

[XXR & Friends]

29 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Looks more like a 5-10% atp advantage -- TGM comp will be below 20 soon and jwd will be hard to keep up with at the end. 18 very reasonable.

 

Agreeing with M37 gets you 17 warning points. 

 

[Joyous Legion]

12 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

Agreeing with M37 gets you 17 warning points. 

 

Sounds like 20 too few