The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Boxofficerules]

I can’t tell if that’s good or bad for M3GAN

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I can’t tell if that’s good or bad for M3GAN

It's the kind of movie where we won't have any idea how it'll do until a few days before when the final marketing push + reviews make or break it.

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	67	5433	1.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.485x of The Conjuring 3 T-11 (4.76M)

0.178x of Halloween Kills T-11 (864K)

0.200x of Scream T-11 (702K)

0.099x of Halloween Ends T-11 (534K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	72	5433	1.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp

0.329x of The Conjuring 3 T-10 (3.22M)

0.161x of Halloween Kills T-10 (779K)

0.190x of Scream T-10 (665K)

0.101x of Halloween Ends T-9 (545K)

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

65 T-81: 16.82% Awareness, 5.64 Interest

Champions T-88: 12.61%, 4.7

The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-102: 51.42%, 5.96

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-123: 13.05%, 4.77

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-130: 53.48%, 6.43

Barbie T-207: 35.36%, 4.72

Wonka T-354: 38.7%, 6.13

 

M3GAN T-11: 44.28% Awareness, 5.84 Interest

Final Awareness: 90% chance of 10M, 60% chance of 20M, 40% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 80% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

 

Knock at the Cabin T-39: 23.29% Awareness, 5.58 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 58% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 78% chance of 10M, 72% chance of 100M

Horror Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M

 

Creed III T-67: 45.59% Awareness, 6.03 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 87.5% chance of 40M, 62.5% chance of 60M

T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 87.5% chance of 100M

[TwoMisfits]

Cross-posting:

 

Plane to get $5 per ticket (usually including PLF) deal from TMobile/Atom on Jan 10.  Not sure this is the movie that a deal moves the needle much for, but it will be the right deal to do it if it does...codes will be redeemable for the full week.

[TwoMisfits]

On 12/19/2022 at 6:25 PM, TwoMisfits said:

2nd local - the non PLF set for Dec 21 and 23 today...

 

Since the weekend drop for Avatar is being considered, I will say this local is dropping showings and 1 of the large theater size to the smallest size.  For now, here's their set...

 

Avatar - 3.5 screens/13 showings - 9 3d/4 2d (down from 20) - largest theater and 2.5 smallest size theaters (dropped the other largest for a smallest and the other was also reduced to smallest 60 seater) - so, probably about 40%ish-45%ish seat loss - don't make me do Math, but this has no PLF, so it's crappy 3d and probably didn't do well last weekend (its presales are pretty poor for Tuesday/Wednesday)...

 

For the rest:

Puss - 2 screens (12 showings - 11 2d / 1 3d) - it gets the other largest screen

Babylon - 2 screens (but 1 is smallest size)

Whitney - 1 screen

Violent Night - 1 screen

Wakanda - 1 screen

 

Still an open screen and a half...Devotion and Elf had those Wednesday and get dropped Friday, so we'll see if they hold for presales (and parcel them to the booked movies) or if they are booking a foreign film or two (they had none last weekend, which is unusual)...Spirited, Strange World, and Black Adam were dropped for the Wednesday set...

 

Edit to ADD: Oh, and I guess I should look at Saturday, and not just Friday, since Saturday has Xmas Eve show drop - Avatar will have 10 showings on Xmas Eve before going back to 13 on Xmas.  So, probably about 25% less sellable seats than Friday and Sunday, since it drops 1 of 4 large showings (and then 2 tiny ones)...

 

 

So, this local set for the weekend:

 

No big changes except no really early/late showings, so:

 

Avatar - 4 screens, but now 12 showings (9 3d, 3 2d)

Puss - 2.25 screens, but now 11 showings (10 3d, 1 3d)

Whitney - 1

Babylon - 1.25

Black Panther - .75

Violent Night - 1 

Foreign Films - 1.75

 

It must pain this theater to give Babylon an extra early morning showing...unless that's the only time anyone ever watches the movie...

[Joyous Legion]

23 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	72	5433	1.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp

0.329x of The Conjuring 3 T-10 (3.22M)

0.161x of Halloween Kills T-10 (779K)

0.190x of Scream T-10 (665K)

0.101x of Halloween Ends T-9 (545K)

Do you have Smile?

[Alex SciChannel]

4 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Do you have Smile?

Smile and The Black Phone I feel would be good comps but I'm no expert.

[Joyous Legion]

4 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Smile and The Black Phone I feel would be good comps but I'm no expert.

Yeah these are my top 2 with probably scream 3rd (it’s a Franchise sequel so more fanbase/frontloaded). Black Phone is summer though so probably not a good IM comp — I am expecting maybe 9.5-12 here depending on how high previews go

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	72	5433	1.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp

0.329x of The Conjuring 3 T-10 (3.22M)

0.161x of Halloween Kills T-10 (779K)

0.190x of Scream T-10 (665K)

0.101x of Halloween Ends T-9 (545K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	81	6237	1.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Comp

0.299x of The Conjuring 3 T-9 (2.93M)

0.159x of Halloween Kills T-9 (770K)

0.186x of Scream T-9 (650K)

0.111x of Halloween Ends T-9 (598K)

[Eric is Quiet]

14 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Do you have Smile?

 

9 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Smile and The Black Phone I feel would be good comps but I'm no expert.

No and no. Didn't realize they would be big deals until it was too late.

[Joyous Legion]

I think @katnisscinnaplex probably has both but they’re probably enjoying a holiday vacation atm

[Nero]

55 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Do you have Smile?

I have smile 

 

 

 

 

[misterpepp]

Missing on sale Dec 30

[Eric is Quiet]

12 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Missing on sale Dec 30

Do you know when House Party and Plane will be on sale? Feels like they've been stuck on placeholder times forever at the Regals I track.

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Missing on sale Dec 30

 

Have to admit, I did not recognize you at first without your Shape avi.    

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, Eric in Boots said:

Do you know when House Party and Plane will be on sale? Feels like they've been stuck on placeholder times forever at the Regals I track.

 

I'll ask around, will get back to you if I hear anything!

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Have to admit, I did not recognize you at first without your Shape avi.    

 

I'm usually not a fan of AI-generated art, but a friend of mine threw my username into one of those programs and it spat out that image of a pepper melting on a blazing hot can of... Daprepp? Anyway, thought it was fun and it gave me a laugh. I'll probably switch back to Nick Castle eventually, though.

Edited December 28, 2022 by datpepper

[el sid]

Well, my predictions were way off last week. I underestimated the weather impact but still...embarrassing.

M3gan, counted yesterday for Thursday, Jan 5:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 31 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 2 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 44 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 73 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 156.

Comps (both counted on Monday of the release week): The Invitation had 96 sold tickets

and Prey for the Devil had 140 sold tickets.

M3gan, counted today for Friday, Jan 6:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 47 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 3 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): no showtimes so far
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 28 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 45 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 126.

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week): The Invitation had 87 sold tickets,

Devil had 207

and Malignant had 100.

No signs for a breakout so far (which can change very fast when it comes to horror films) but very solid numbers.

Knock at the Cabin had yesterday 32 and 25 sold tickets for Thursday, Feb 2 respectively Friday, Feb 3 (on both days with showtimes in 5 theaters). Idk how long the tickets were on sale yesterday, 1-3 days?

Comps: The Black Phone had after ca. 24h 95 sold tickets for Thursday and 34 sold tickets for Friday.

Beast had 53 and 27 sold tickets (with way less days to go than Knock at the Cabin, namly 10 and 11 days).

Of course with many weeks left, it's impossible to predict how successful it will be but that's a good start.
PS: The trailer reactions were also in Germany positive.).ased o

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

A Man Called Otto T-16: 30.36% Awareness, 5.39 Interest

House Party T-16: 32.06%, 5.74

Alice, Darling T-23: 17.39%, 5.16

Golda T-72: 6.82%, 4.33

Inside T-72: 10.86%, 5.34

Scream 6 T-72: 48.05%, 6.24

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse T-156: 48.48%, 6.46

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts T-163: 40.58%, 6.19

The Blackening T-170: 13.7%, 5.43

 

Cocaine Bear T-58: 28.79% Awareness, 5.65 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 16% chance of 30M

T-60 Interest: 72% chance of 10M, 67% chance of 20M, 55% chance of 30M

Original - Low Awareness: 78% chance of 5M, 33% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 60% chance of 5M, 40% chance of 10M

[Eric is Quiet]

On 12/27/2022 at 11:30 PM, Eric in Boots said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	81	6237	1.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Comp

0.299x of The Conjuring 3 T-9 (2.93M)

0.159x of Halloween Kills T-9 (770K)

0.186x of Scream T-9 (650K)

0.111x of Halloween Ends T-9 (598K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	81	6237	1.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp

0.255x of The Conjuring 3 T-8 (2.5M)

0.145x of Halloween Kills T-8 (705K)

0.168x of Scream T-8 (588K)

0.103x of Halloween Ends T-8 (559K)