The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Alex SciChannel]

55 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Thought the Berkeley Regal was gonna close immediately last year when it was announced that there's gonna be new housing built, but I guess this makes it official. Also the last cinema that's walkable from campus. Kinda sucks eventhough the Landmark cinema loss was a bigger hit.

I also hope the Regal near my University doesn't close as well. My Regal is Gallatin Valley and it is the only movie theater in town that's a mainstream multiplex and not an art house. The next closest theater is the Yellowstone IMAX and that's a 2 hour drive from campus

Edited January 19, 2023 by Alex SciChannel

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

 

Wow. Im not in the US, but I can appreciate this is not good news. Have to wonder if this a beginning of domino of other theatre chains (not just in US)starting to cut theatres. Very unfortunate indeed.

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

454

2587

17.55%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

363

3106

11.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1917	223	32557	5.89%	15	189

 

AMCs sold	1394
Cinemarks sold	262
Regals sold	122
Harkins sold	139

 

1.41x Avatar TWoW Day 2 (24.05M)

0.817x Black Panther WF Day 3 (22.87M)

0.552x Thor L&T Day 2 (16.02M)

0.350x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (12.59M)

0.814x Batman Day 2 (17.58M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

478

2587

18.48%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

383

3106

12.33%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2041	124	32557	6.27%	15	189

 

AMCs sold	1474
Cinemarks sold	284
Regals sold	132
Harkins sold	151

 

0.707x Black Panther WF T-28 (19.80M)

0.401x Doctor Strange MoM T-28 (14.42M)

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Megaplex

 

T-29 Thursday(118 showings): 1567(+281)/34617

1.09x Avatar TWOW Day 2 (18.50M)

0.512x Thor L&T Day 2 (14.86M)

0.289x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (10.42M)

0.438x Batman Day 2 (9.46M)

 

T-30 Friday(181 showings): 650(+142)/53832

0.530x Avatar TWOW Day 2 (19.18M)

0.444x Thor L&T Day 2 (18.00M)

0.262x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (14.36M)

0.640x Batman Day 2 (22.41M)

 

T-31 Saturday(182 showings): 539(+95)/54089

0.425x Avatar TWOW Day 2 (18.84M)

0.774x Thor L&T Day 2 (32.61M)

0.440x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (25.46M)

1.18x Batman Day 2 (51.02M)

 

T-32 Sunday(176 showings): 139(+26)/51784

0.310x Avatar TWOW Day 2 (11.35M)

0.728x Thor L&T Day 2 (23.65M)

0.565x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (21.97M)

1.93x Batman Day 2 (65.91M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Megaplex

 

T-28 Thursday(122 showings): 1708(+141)/35371

0.882x Black Panther WF T-28 (24.69M)

0.289x Doctor Strange MoM T-28 (12.28M)

 

T-29 Friday(185 showings): 775(+125)/54636

0.788x Black Panther WF T-29 (44.33M)

0.348x Doctor Strange MoM T-29 (19.07M)

 

T-30 Saturday(186 showings): 618(+79)/54893

1.13x Black Panther WF T-30 (63.42M)

0.621x Doctor Strange MoM T-30 (35.91M)

 

T-31 Sunday(180 showings): 165(+26)/52588

1.57x Black Panther WF T-31 (64.30M)

0.878x Doctor Strange MoM T-31 (34.13M)

 

[Tinalera]

Im curious to see how Antman does if using the whole idea of the "this is new MCU big bad" (yes I know about Loki ect). I am curious to see how this works if people "buy it" with this new antagonist. Im not saying its going to flop at all, but I am curious to see if this is where audience pays attention and is interested in the new Big Bad or not. Also of course keeping in mind our current financial situation right now and what effect that may have

[Inceptionzq]

21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse

 

T-29 Thursday(237 showings): 6637(+797)/34519 ATP: $15.95

0.752x Black Panther WF Day 3 (21.05M)

0.719x Thor L&T Day 2 (20.84M)

0.520x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (18.73M)

1.02x Batman Thurs only Day 2 (17.97M)

 

T-30 Friday(331 showings): 4411(+740)/48238 ATP: $15.74

0.536x Black Panther WF Day 3 (30.17M)

0.676x Thor L&T Day 2 (27.42M)

0.459x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (25.14M)

0.727x Batman Day 2 (25.46M)

 

T-31 Saturday(338 showings): 4318(+974)/49274 ATP: $15.01

0.651x Black Panther WF Day 3 (36.52M)

0.739x Thor L&T Day 2 (31.14M)

0.464x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (26.84M)

0.872x Batman Day 2 (37.72M)

 

T-32 Sunday(306 showings): 1546(+458)/45387 ATP: $14.33

0.514x Black Panther WF Day 3 (21.02M)

0.558x Thor L&T Day 2 (18.13M)

0.432x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (16.79M)

0.826x Batman Day 2 (28.21M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse

 

T-28 Thursday(237 showings): 7040(+403)/34519 ATP: $15.96

0.711x Black Panther WF T-28 (19.92M)

0.579x Doctor Strange MoM T-28 (20.86M)

 

T-29 Friday(331 showings): 4828(+417)/48238 ATP: $15.76

0.489x Black Panther WF T-29 (27.54M)

0.545x Doctor Strange MoM T-29 (29.82M)

 

T-30 Saturday(338 showings): 4737(+419)/49274 ATP: $15.07

0.587x Black Panther WF T-30 (32.94M)

0.561x Doctor Strange MoM T-30 (32.43M)

 

T-31 Sunday(306 showings): 1694(+148)/45387 ATP: $14.38

0.424x Black Panther WF T-31 (17.36M)

0.550x Doctor Strange MoM T-31 (21.40M)

[Shawn Robbins]

18 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

A couple of responses:

 

I agree of course that WF shouldn't be used for weekend comps due to Veteran's day. But I don't think that the extra week means that it shouldn't be used as one of the chief comps for Thursday. While the Friday distribution was atypical, its Thursday presale run followed fairly normal trends for an MCU film, and importantly it is one of the closest starts to Quantumania in Thursday sales volume

 

Despite the similarity in PS sales length, I think DS2's initial sales are simply too high to make it an appropriate initlal comp for Quantumania. Generally the best comps are fairly close in volume, since PS ratio tends to exaggerate what the final Thursday ratio would be. For example, DS2's day 1 was a bit over half of NWH, but the actual Thursday was closer to 75%. Thor 4 was around 60% of DS2 but ended up more like 80%. It's a normal trend that we see for pretty much every PS run, especially when the comps being used are of similar genre (and here, it's the same franchise and fanbase). 

 

As far as 16, it seems like going that low would require a huge outlier run. As I mentioned before, that would require a preview below Avatar 2 (not just a decrease in the ratio, but actually losing tickets relative to A2, which didn't exactly have incredible walkups). For an MCU comp, we had BW do 13.2 previews in 2021 with a much lower presales start than Ant-Man 3, and while the situation has changed since then, a preview finish only 20% higher would be quite surprising to me, especially since BW's late burst wasn't anything amazing. My personal low end is around 19M at the moment. 

All fair points, many of which I agree with. I'm not suggesting WF shouldn't be used as one key comp, just that it shouldn't be weighted so heavily right now as to 100% rule out a fairly reasonable number like $16-17M. That would be a solid result in mid-February with a long weekend ahead, and there's math to support it as a possible outcome just as there's some math path to mid-20s at the moment. Let's see how things coalesce from here.

[Joyous Legion]

I mean, fwiw, if you exclude BP entirely as a comparison than my prediction would change from 25-26 to... 25-26.   

 

If you focus very heavily on Thor and DS2 (which is not really justified imo) then it looks more like 22-23. These teen stuff is just not really on the table with this start unless something goes pretty unusually wrong -- certainly I cannot see a way to describe even 17 as fairly reasonable, regardless of comp choice.

Edited January 20, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[Issac Newton]

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century)	$22.5 M	$600.7 M	-31%	6
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation)	$12.0 M	$126.8 M	-17%	5
3	M3GAN (Universal)	$11.4 M	$74.7 M	-38%	3
4	A Man Called Otto (Sony / Columbia)	$9.8 M	$36.0 M	-24%	4
5	Missing (Sony / Screen Gems)	$7.3 M	$7.3 M	NEW	1
6	Plane (Lionsgate)	$5.9 M	$20.0 M	-43%	2
7	House Party (Warner Bros. / New Line)	$2.0 M	$7.4 M	-50%	2
8	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney)	$1.4 M	$451.8 M	-43%	11

[DAJK]

34 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century)	$22.5 M	$600.7 M	-31%	6
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation)	$12.0 M	$126.8 M	-17%	5
3	M3GAN (Universal)	$11.4 M	$74.7 M	-38%	3
4	A Man Called Otto (Sony / Columbia)	$9.8 M	$36.0 M	-24%	4
5	Missing (Sony / Screen Gems)	$7.3 M	$7.3 M	NEW	1
6	Plane (Lionsgate)	$5.9 M	$20.0 M	-43%	2
7	House Party (Warner Bros. / New Line)	$2.0 M	$7.4 M	-50%	2
8	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney)	$1.4 M	$451.8 M	-43%	11

These would be incredible numbers.

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

I mean, fwiw, if you exclude BP entirely as a comparison than my prediction would change from 25-26 to... 25-26.   

 

If you focus very heavily on Thor and DS2 (which is not really justified imo) then it looks more like 22-23. These teen stuff is just not really on the table with this start unless something goes pretty unusually wrong -- certainly I cannot see a way to describe even 17 as fairly reasonable, regardless of comp choice.

 

This is how expectations get out of hand, to be honest. It's a reasonable number based on the data at hand, regardless of whether or not it corresponds to individual opinion. There's no evidence suggesting high teens can be ruled out yet.

 

Let's keep perspective even (and especially) amid bullish guesses. 

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, Tinalera said:

Wow. Im not in the US, but I can appreciate this is not good news. Have to wonder if this a beginning of domino of other theatre chains (not just in US)starting to cut theatres. Very unfortunate indeed.

I imagine AMC and Cinemark would look into buying some of the more active locations (if it were the latter it would definitely increase the theatrical footprint of Netflix through that deal they've had with Cinemark since late 2020 - You People is actually opening at a number of their theaters this weekend ahead of its streaming launch next week), but the smaller ones might not be so lucky. 

[Joyous Legion]

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

This is how expectations get out of hand, to be honest. 

No, making reasonable projections is not how expectations get out of hand, to be honest.

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

It's a reasonable number based on the data at hand.

But it’s not!

 

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

There's no evidence suggesting teens can be ruled out.

But there is!

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Let's keep perspective even amid bullish predictions.

I am keeping perspective 🤷‍♂️ 
 

Bullish predictions would be like 28. I have often emphasized the bearish side (22ish)
 

 

Edited January 20, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[Shawn Robbins]

10 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

I am keeping perspective 🤷‍♂️ 

 

No, you're not. Demonstrably, you are not.

 

I'm in a good mood, so you get one chance to walk back the argumentative attitude. 

[XXR & Friends]

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Regal is shutting down locations even in big markets like NY and CA. I fondly remember Regal Union Square selling out all midnight shows for Dark Knight. It was so much fun tracking just the sellouts in the pre reserved seating era. Since mojo forums dont exist, the thread at KJ was super fun back then. 

 

So Cinemark should exceed Regal after this? @charlie Jatinder what do you think?

Regal hold more than 50% lead over Cinemark. 12ish vs 19ish.

 

Will depend which Regal locs close.

[misterpepp]

A note about the Regal news:

 

That report about closing theaters is coming from Business Insider, who one of my sources is claiming might have swindled that scoop out from another source on the Regal Unlimited sub-Reddit, and is misreporting these potential closures as certainties.

 

Multiple locations that had leases rejected earlier in the same manner remain open. I even mentioned one either on this forum or on the group chat, Regal E-Walk, which was similarly listed as having its lease rejected before it was re-negotiated. Leases set to be rejected, and even ones that end up reaching rejection, can still be re-negotiated. The BI article even mentions: “The debtors are hopeful that these negotiations will lead to lease concessions and modifications that will obviate the need for rejection"

Edited January 20, 2023 by datpepper

[Joyous Legion]

Yeah this is the 2nd round of regal closure "news" and most locations from the earlier one remain open. It's not false per se but it's usually maybes where the maybe part gets lost in a game of media telephone.

Edited January 20, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

 

No, you're not. Demonstrably, you are not.

 

I'm in a good mood, so you get one chance to walk back the argumentative attitude. 

I am, actually. And I don't appreciate the tone of that 2nd paragraph when we are just disagreeing about numbericsl analysis without anything even resembling bad behavior.  

 

As my final word I would say -- to the extent there are parts of your model which suggest 16 is even remotely plausible, you could probably improve your accuracy for this movie by further downweighting those components. But I don't expect you to do so so we can just wait for the proof in the pudding

Edited January 20, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[filmlover]

Ant-Man, Schmant-Man. @datpepper any idea when we can expect tickets to go on sale for our REAL box office savior?