The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it opens to $20M, Universal is pushing it like crazy. Hopefully the reviews are decent (or at least not terrible).

 

I am bullish on this one and think 25M is about where it lands.

[Eric S'ennui]

23 hours ago, Eric is Missing said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	1705	31384	5.43%

 

Comp - First Day of Sales

2.092x of Black Widow (27.61M)

3.343x of Shang-Chi (29.42M)

2.240x of Eternals (21.28M)

0.151x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (7.57M)

0.473x of The Batman (10.21M)

0.277x of Doctor Strange 2 (9.96M)

0.462x of Thor: Love and Thunder (13.4M)

0.488x of Black Panther 2 (13.66M)

1.901x of Avatar 2 (32.31M)

 

Comp - T-31

0.355x of Black Panther 2 (9.94M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-30 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	2566	31384	8.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 861

 

Comp - First Two Days of Sales

2.710x of Black Widow (35.77M)

3.634x of Shang-Chi (31.98M)

2.777x of Eternals (26.38M)

0.203x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (10.16M)

0.642x of The Batman (13.86M)

0.372x of Doctor Strange 2 (13.41M)

0.626x of Thor: Love and Thunder (18.16M)

0.654x of Black Panther 2 (18.3M)

2.307x of Avatar 2 (39.23M)

 

Comp - T-30

0.520x of Black Panther 2 (14.55M)

 

I'm generally a "MCU movies should only comp with MCU movies (and sometimes DC)" kind of guy, but I've seen enough compelling arguments from people that Way of Water should be in here that I decided to throw it in there and edited my initial post. But I'm not putting in TGM for obvious demographic reasons and because I already have enough comps as is.

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

I have... thoughts about this.  And as a non-MCU partisan I might be a bit more clearer eyed about this.

 

...

 

Was gonna wait on this until I started to get more data, but the initial signs out of Sacto for Day 2 are giving me enough of a reason to go ahead and say it, at least as a running theory.

 

 

This post in XXR's club doesn't actually say I don't have reasons, even if it heavily implies it... I just said "don't ask me for [them]". 

Something something "from a certain point of view" something something.  

 

In fact, I did have reasons... I just didn't feel like going into them at the time.

 

I've been thinking for a while now that the comparisons to Ant-Man and Ant-Man and the Wasp, while understandable, were missing some important pieces of context.  Namely from what I gather, this film is setting up the central conflict of the current Phase of MCU films.  In some ways this might be the most consequential film in the MCU since Endgame.  More arguably the most consequential since Multiverse of Madness.

 

And that matters to at least some types of MCU stans.

 

Now before I get too deep into this post, only so much one can go when starting from the base of Ant-Man films. So when I say "most consequential since X" that will only move the needle so much.  But... moving the needle is in fact, kinda my point.  For quite a while now I've been thinking this might be more similar to how Captain America: Civil War played compared to other Captain America films.  Newcomers might not know this, but Old Timers might recall that there was quite the fight over how to view CA:CW.  A Captain America film?  An Avengers-lite film?  Somewhere in-between.  Turned out, "somewhere in-between" was indeed the answer.

 

But CA:CW absolutely got a boost and I'm not going to be surprised at all if AM3 gets a similar style of boost, if at a smaller percentage.

 

As for why?  Well, it's not so much that "Kang is a big deal" @Verrows in as much as "Kang is supposed to be the Next Big Bad" of the MCU, and MCU fans are smart enough to have picked up on that.  So if Kang is in fact a very important part of this film (and marketing sure as hell is saying he is), more MCU fans are gonna want to check it out to see how the overall story advances than might ordinarily check out an Ant-Man film. 

 

To add to that, I also think it is fair to say that the Marvel fandom has been suffering from a collective case of blue balls ever since their disappointing time with MoM.*"

* Yes, I am twelve years old.

 

To put it another way, I do think there is some sense of... frustration with how much the overall story/meta-plot of the MCU there has been post NWH and any film which meaningfully (claims it is going to) advances the current plot in a way that MoM/films after that perhaps did not is gonna get a boost in interest, IMO.  I may not be an MCU fan, but I recognize the whole "What happens NEXT?  TELL ME WHAT HAPPENS NEXT!?!?!" discourse all. too. well.  *cough*

 

Additionally, it also helps that folks just like Paul Rudd as Ant-Man (as well as Abby Ryder Fortson as Cassie).  Character likability goes a long way when it comes to franchise growth and, again from what I've seen, both Ant-Man and Cassie have become more popular with time (Evangeline Lilly as Wasp, I don't have as great a hang on so I ain't commenting on her popularity).  Not that I want to over sell this factor, mind.  But just "liking the character" helps and I'll keep mentioning it in passing when I think it is appropriate.

 

Now we're still very very veeeeeeeerrrrrrry early in pre-sales.  But I do think:

 

1] Seeing the Next Big Bad on the Big Screen

and

2] (Finally) Getting the meta-plot moving

and

3] Just liking the characters involved 

 

All help sell tickets.

 

Also helps that Jonathan Majors as Kang seems to have instant screen presence and watchability. And, frankly, I don't think it matters at all that the character was (sorta) introduced in Loki over on D+, as Google Is Free and anyone who is curious enough can find out via the innumerable news articles that are gonna come out about the character/links to various wikis/whatever.  And that's presuming the character isn't properly introduced in the film itself (and I very much presume he will be).

 

So all of this added together might help explain this initial relative surge of interest. 

 

Basically it's Fandom Dynamics > Pre-Existing Data concerning film series.

So far at least.  We'll see if it actually continues.

 

Great post! You explained in detail exactly why I've called this movie the most "overlooked" MCU entry ever since Marvel Studios announced all their Multiverse Saga plans. For awhile there people just couldn't see past the Ant-Man name I guess.

 

Like you said, it's very early, and I recognize that this could still go a variety of different ways (I think of something like No Time to Die here and what happened during the final stretch of presales) but I do think the relative strength of early presales is a fairly reliable indicator that this could surpass most people's expectations. Ie - if this was going to be a ho hum Anr-Man-like sort of deal then the presales start likely would have bore that out already.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	231	30346	32365	2019	6.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

2019

 

Day 1 Comps

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	29.92		6749	6749		0/329	34167/40916	16.49%		21117	9.56%		10.77m
TG:M	133.18		1516	1516		0/256	34603/36119	4.20%		11474	17.60%		26.32m
L&T	48.52		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	11.90%		14.07m
BP2	62.05		3254	3254		0/279	31690/34980	9.30%		16800	12.02%		17.37m
A2	152.95		1320	1320		0/138	19300/20620	6.40%		8986	22.47%		26.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       382/12953  [2.95% sold]
Matinee:        41/1800  [2.28% | 2.03% of all tickets sold]
3D:              149/6479  [2.30% | 7.38% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Comps are all over the place, as might be expected for, basically, 1/2 - 2/3rds of a day sales compared to other films.  Ironically enough, TGM and A2 are nearly pointing to an identical (and likely unrealistic) number.  As more Phase 4/5 films roll in, really is becoming apparent how useless the MoM comp is compared to the films that came after it.  But still including it for reasons.

 

Prob too early for me to really give many thoughts owing to the disparity in pre-sale windows and day one sales.  But seems strong enough of a start.  20m+ strong?  Above my pay grade to figure out. Have more of a handle on it in a few days, perhaps.

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	231	29564	32365	2801	8.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

782

 

Day 2 Comps

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	37.84		654	7403		0/329	33513/40916	18.09%		21117	13.26%		13.62m
TG:M	146.73		393	1909		0/257	34292/36201	5.27%		11474	24.41%		28.99m
L&T	59.29		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	16.51%		17.19m
BP2	75.24		469	3723		0/292	32828/36551	10.19%		16800	16.67%		21.07m
A2	165.84		369	1689		0/142	19649/21338	7.92%		8986	31.17%		28.19m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       504/12953  [3.89% sold]
Matinee:       58/1800  [3.22% | 2.07% of all tickets sold]
3D:             258/6479  [3.98% | 9.21% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Managed to come in over everyone's expectations (except for Jat's 1k 'possible' number — but imma ignoring that). 👍

 

So... Yeah. Was more than some initial sales that hadn't yet been burned off.  Makes me wonder what Day 1 "would" have been with a more normal start time in the morning.

 

Now we see how long it takes to stabilize.

 

(as a house keeping note, will shift over to T-x on Friday, probably — not that I'll have many comps to use)

[Factcheck]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

I have... thoughts about this.  And as a non-MCU partisan I might be a bit more clearer eyed about this.

 

...

 

Was gonna wait on this until I started to get more data, but the initial signs out of Sacto for Day 2 are giving me enough of a reason to go ahead and say it, at least as a running theory.

 

 

This post in XXR's club doesn't actually say I don't have reasons, even if it heavily implies it... I just said "don't ask me for [them]". 

Something something "from a certain point of view" something something.  

 

In fact, I did have reasons... I just didn't feel like going into them at the time.

 

I've been thinking for a while now that the comparisons to Ant-Man and Ant-Man and the Wasp, while understandable, were missing some important pieces of context.  Namely from what I gather, this film is setting up the central conflict of the current Phase of MCU films.  In some ways this might be the most consequential film in the MCU since Endgame.  More arguably the most consequential since Multiverse of Madness.

 

And that matters to at least some types of MCU stans.

 

Now before I get too deep into this post, only so much one can go when starting from the base of Ant-Man films. So when I say "most consequential since X" that will only move the needle so much.  But... moving the needle is in fact, kinda my point.  For quite a while now I've been thinking this might be more similar to how Captain America: Civil War played compared to other Captain America films.  Newcomers might not know this, but Old Timers might recall that there was quite the fight over how to view CA:CW.  A Captain America film?  An Avengers-lite film?  Somewhere in-between.  Turned out, "somewhere in-between" was indeed the answer.

 

But CA:CW absolutely got a boost and I'm not going to be surprised at all if AM3 gets a similar style of boost, if at a smaller percentage.

 

As for why?  Well, it's not so much that "Kang is a big deal" @Verrows in as much as "Kang is supposed to be the Next Big Bad" of the MCU, and MCU fans are smart enough to have picked up on that.  So if Kang is in fact a very important part of this film (and marketing sure as hell is saying he is), more MCU fans are gonna want to check it out to see how the overall story advances than might ordinarily check out an Ant-Man film. 

 

To add to that, I also think it is fair to say that the Marvel fandom has been suffering from a collective case of blue balls ever since their disappointing time with MoM.*"

* Yes, I am twelve years old.

 

To put it another way, I do think there is some sense of... frustration with how much the overall story/meta-plot of the MCU there has been post NWH and any film which meaningfully (claims it is going to) advances the current plot in a way that MoM/films after that perhaps did not is gonna get a boost in interest, IMO.  I may not be an MCU fan, but I recognize the whole "What happens NEXT?  TELL ME WHAT HAPPENS NEXT!?!?!" discourse all. too. well.  *cough*

 

Additionally, it also helps that folks just like Paul Rudd as Ant-Man (as well as Abby Ryder Fortson as Cassie).  Character likability goes a long way when it comes to franchise growth and, again from what I've seen, both Ant-Man and Cassie have become more popular with time (Evangeline Lilly as Wasp, I don't have as great a hang on so I ain't commenting on her popularity).  Not that I want to over sell this factor, mind.  But just "liking the character" helps and I'll keep mentioning it in passing when I think it is appropriate.

 

Now we're still very very veeeeeeeerrrrrrry early in pre-sales.  But I do think:

 

1] Seeing the Next Big Bad on the Big Screen

and

2] (Finally) Getting the meta-plot moving

and

3] Just liking the characters involved 

 

All help sell tickets.

 

Also helps that Jonathan Majors as Kang seems to have instant screen presence and watchability. And, frankly, I don't think it matters at all that the character was (sorta) introduced in Loki over on D+, as Google Is Free and anyone who is curious enough can find out via the innumerable news articles that are gonna come out about the character/links to various wikis/whatever.  And that's presuming the character isn't properly introduced in the film itself (and I very much presume he will be).

 

So all of this added together might help explain this initial relative surge of interest. 

 

Basically it's Fandom Dynamics > Pre-Existing Data concerning film series.

So far at least.  We'll see if it actually continues.

 

In short, people are excited for Avengers 5, and so this initial rush could be similar to MOM on a smaller scale, but if sales are like WF then we'll get confirmation in a few days.

[Legion Again]

Sacto geomean up to 24.4 and it’s still disadvantaged (~1.5 days vs 2). Overindexing there I think though the national start adjusted for start times suggests ~24.5M from eyeballing/napkinning  (detailed post in few hrs).

[Porthos]

54 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Sacto geomean up to 24.4 and it’s still disadvantaged (~1.5 days vs 2). Overindexing there I think though the national start adjusted for start times suggests ~24.5M from eyeballing/napkinning  (detailed post in few hrs).

 

So what you're suggesting is that Sacramento Dark Magic is still coming on strong? 

[Krissykins]

5 hours ago, Verrows said:

So is it safe to say that Kang is actually a big deal after all?

I don’t know anything about Kang and haven’t seen him in anything else (didn’t finish Loki), but I do know that one of the next Avengers films has his name in the title. 
 

That’s probably all most people need to know. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Total Seats Sold Today

782

what did I win?

[JustLurking]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

what did I win?

Last I checked 782 is closer to 700 than 1000 👀

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Last I checked 782 is closer to 700 than 1000 👀

 

8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Won't be surprised with 700+ ✅
 

may be even closer to 1K. “May be, as it happened not”

In worst case we can ignore words and interpret Jat post with two nums as 700-1000 range, 837 point est vs M37 725, with an O/U bar of…

 

779, resolves as win for Jat

Edited January 18, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[THUNDER BIRD]

2 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

 

In worst case we can ignore words and interpret Jat post with two nums as 700-1000 range, 837 point est vs M37 725, with an O/U bar of…

 

779 resolves as win for Jat

700-1000 is range, so mid point is 850.

 

Less than 850 Jat lose, more than 850 is Jat win.

 

So 782 means Jat lost. Game over, his reputation as trade analyst is in danger.

Edited January 18, 2023 by THUNDER BIRD

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

 

In worst case we can ignore words and interpret Jat post with two nums as 700-1000 range, 837 point est vs M37 725, with an O/U bar of…

 

779, resolves as win for Jat

I knew loving a math nerd will come handy

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-16	Jax	4	12	0	7	1,632	0.43%
		Phx	5	14	1	7	1,514	0.46%
		Ral	7	21	6	10	1,839	0.54%
	Total		16	47	7	24	4,985	0.48%
Ant-Man 3	T-30	Jax	6	91	191	488	15,860	3.08%
		Phx	6	85	201	479	15,027	3.19%
		Ral	7	86	219	426	11,228	3.79%
	Total		19	262	611	1,393	42,115	3.31%
Brady (1/28)	T-11	Jax	2	2	2	11	365	3.01%
	Total		2	2	2	11	365	3.01%
Brady (1/31)	T-14	Jax	3	3	5	8	446	1.79%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	139	0.00%
	Total		5	5	5	8	691	1.16%
Brady (2/1)	T-15	Jax	3	3	0	0	446	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	73	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	0	625	0.00%
Knock at Cabin	T-16	Jax	5	16	10	32	2,739	1.17%
		Phx	4	10	2	19	1,554	1.22%
		Ral	6	16	4	26	2,470	1.05%
	Total		15	42	16	77	6,763	1.14%
Left Behind	T-9	Jax	4	4	0	40	453	8.83%
		Phx	5	5	3	44	830	5.30%
		Ral	5	5	4	53	530	10.00%
	Total		14	14	7	137	1,813	7.56%
Missing	T-2	Jax	5	19	9	25	1,590	1.57%
		Phx	4	9	4	18	1,687	1.07%
		Ral	3	6	10	18	648	2.78%
	Total		12	34	23	61	3,925	1.55%
Slime	T-2	Jax	5	11	5	36	1,092	3.30%
		Phx	4	6	3	25	892	2.80%
		Ral	6	11	6	29	1,593	1.82%
	Total		15	28	14	90	3,577	2.52%

 

Missing T-2 comps

 - Crawdads - .107x (215k)

 - Bullet Train - .116x (389k)

 - Lost City - .175x (437k)

 - Old - .462x (693k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.79x (716k)

 

Slime T-2 comps

 - JJK - .067x (192k)

 - DBZ - .073x (314k)

 - One Piece - .129x (219k)

 

Left Behind T-9 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - .375x (290k)

 

80 for Brady T-16 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2x (1m)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-16 comps

 - Nope - .264x (1.688m)

 - M3GAN - 2.655x (7.3m)

 - Black Phone - 1.116x (2.9m)

 

Ant-Man 3 comps (against 24hr sales)

 

 - NWH - .089x (4.47m)

 - Black Widow - 2.594x (34.24m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .232x (8.35m)

 - Thor 4 - .413x (11.97m)

 - Eternals - 1.826x (17.34m)

 - BP2 - .459x (12.855m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.424x (24.21m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.402x (21.24m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.338x (25.83m)

 - JW3 - 1.401x (25.23m)

 

Here's a breakdown of the sales by format.

Movie	Type	Tickets	Sales	ATP
Ant-Man 3	BigD	104	$1,601.09	15.40
	D-Box	33	$836.03	25.33
	Dolby	348	$6,177.80	17.75
	IMAX	125	$2,308.04	18.46
	RealD 3D	142	$2,360.15	16.62
	RPX	5	$81.10	16.22
	Standard	499	$6,261.21	12.55
	XD	137	$2,297.81	16.77
Ant-Man 3 Total		1,393	$21,923.23	15.74

 

12 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-30	Jax	6	91	143	631	15,860	3.98%
		Phx	6	85	146	625	15,027	4.16%
		Ral	7	86	190	616	11,228	5.49%
	Total		19	262	479	1,872	42,115	4.44%

 

First 24 hours!  ATP starts at $15.68.

 

Comps

- NWH (33hrs) - .12x (6.01m)

 - Black Widow - 3.486x (46.02m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .312x (11.23m)

 - Thor 4 - .555x (16.085m)

 - Eternals - 2.453x (23.308m)

 - BP2 - .617x (17.28m)

 - Avatar 2 (22hrs) - 1.914x (32.54m)

 - Shang-Chi - 3.228x (28.4m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.798x (34.71m)

 - JW3 - 1.883x (33.9m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-15	Jax	5	15	0	7	1,926	0.36%
		Phx	5	14	1	8	1,514	0.53%
		Ral	7	21	3	13	1,839	0.71%
	Total		17	50	4	28	5,279	0.53%
Ant-Man 3	T-29	Jax	6	91	29	660	15,860	4.16%
		Phx	6	85	68	693	15,027	4.61%
		Ral	7	86	23	639	11,228	5.69%
	Total		19	262	120	1,992	42,115	4.73%
Brady (1/28)	T-10	Jax	2	2	5	16	365	4.38%
	Total		2	2	5	16	365	4.38%
Brady (1/31)	T-13	Jax	3	3	1	9	446	2.02%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	139	0.00%
	Total		5	5	1	9	691	1.30%
Brady (2/1)	T-14	Jax	3	3	0	0	446	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	73	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	0	625	0.00%
Infinity Pool	T-8	Jax	4	5	11	11	445	2.47%
		Phx	5	6	2	2	517	0.39%
		Ral	4	5	8	8	496	1.61%
	Total		13	16	21	21	1,458	1.44%
Knock at Cabin	T-15	Jax	5	16	2	34	2,739	1.24%
		Phx	4	10	1	20	1,554	1.29%
		Ral	6	16	0	26	2,470	1.05%
	Total		15	42	3	80	6,763	1.18%
Left Behind	T-8	Jax	4	4	7	47	453	10.38%
		Phx	5	5	7	51	830	6.14%
		Ral	5	5	0	53	530	10.00%
	Total		14	14	14	151	1,813	8.33%
Missing	T-1	Jax	5	21	10	35	1,878	1.86%
		Phx	5	13	3	21	2,067	1.02%
		Ral	3	8	5	23	809	2.84%
	Total		13	42	18	79	4,754	1.66%
Slime	T-1	Jax	5	12	19	55	1,142	4.82%
		Phx	6	10	5	30	1,222	2.45%
		Ral	6	11	3	32	1,593	2.01%
	Total		17	33	27	117	3,957	2.96%

 

Missing T-1 comps

 - Crawdads - .112x (223k)

 - Bullet Train - .107x (357k)

 - Lost City - .164x (409k)

 - Old - .391x (587k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.68x (671k)

 

Slime T-1 comps

 - JJK - .078x (224k)

 - DBZ - .081x (347k)

 - One Piece - .154x (261k)

 

Left Behind T-8 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - .411x (318k)

 

Infinity Pool T-8 comps

 - The Night House - 1.75x (455k)

 - Black Phone - .198x (515k)

 

80 for Brady T-15 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.33x (1.17m)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-15 comps

 - Nope - .264x (1.69m)

 - M3GAN - 2.759x (7.59m)

 - Black Phone - 1.143x (2.97m)

 - Halloween Ends - .482x (2.6m)

 

 

Ant-Man 3 T-29 comps

 - Dr Strange 2 - .404x (14.53m)

[M37]

4 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

 

In worst case we can ignore words and interpret Jat post with two nums as 700-1000 range, 837 point est vs M37 725, with an O/U bar of…

 

779, resolves as win for Jat

10 hours ago, M37 said:

Whatever number gets you to ~60% of Thor L&T and like ~ 75% of BPWF

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

L&T

59.29

BP2

75.24

[Legion Again]

11 hours ago, M37 said:

(quick mental math)

A tale of ancient tragedy 😛 

[charlie Jatinder]

52 minutes ago, M37 said:

so you missed one by like 0.7 and other 0.25. eh. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by charlie Jatinder
missed missed

[M37]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

I have... thoughts about this.  And as a non-MCU partisan I might be a bit more clearer eyed about this.

 

...

 

Was gonna wait on this until I started to get more data, but the initial signs out of Sacto for Day 2 are giving me enough of a reason to go ahead and say it, at least as a running theory.

 

 

This post in XXR's club doesn't actually say I don't have reasons, even if it heavily implies it... I just said "don't ask me for [them]". 

Something something "from a certain point of view" something something.  

 

In fact, I did have reasons... I just didn't feel like going into them at the time.

 

I've been thinking for a while now that the comparisons to Ant-Man and Ant-Man and the Wasp, while understandable, were missing some important pieces of context.  Namely from what I gather, this film is setting up the central conflict of the current Phase of MCU films.  In some ways this might be the most consequential film in the MCU since Endgame.  More arguably the most consequential since Multiverse of Madness.

 

And that matters to at least some types of MCU stans.

 

Now before I get too deep into this post, only so much one can go when starting from the base of Ant-Man films. So when I say "most consequential since X" that will only move the needle so much.  But... moving the needle is in fact, kinda my point.  For quite a while now I've been thinking this might be more similar to how Captain America: Civil War played compared to other Captain America films.  Newcomers might not know this, but Old Timers might recall that there was quite the fight over how to view CA:CW.  A Captain America film?  An Avengers-lite film?  Somewhere in-between.  Turned out, "somewhere in-between" was indeed the answer.

 

But CA:CW absolutely got a boost and I'm not going to be surprised at all if AM3 gets a similar style of boost, if at a smaller percentage.

 

As for why?  Well, it's not so much that "Kang is a big deal" @Verrows in as much as "Kang is supposed to be the Next Big Bad" of the MCU, and MCU fans are smart enough to have picked up on that.  So if Kang is in fact a very important part of this film (and marketing sure as hell is saying he is), more MCU fans are gonna want to check it out to see how the overall story advances than might ordinarily check out an Ant-Man film. 

 

To add to that, I also think it is fair to say that the Marvel fandom has been suffering from a collective case of blue balls ever since their disappointing time with MoM.*"

* Yes, I am twelve years old.

 

To put it another way, I do think there is some sense of... frustration with how much the overall story/meta-plot of the MCU there has been post NWH and any film which meaningfully (claims it is going to) advances the current plot in a way that MoM/films after that perhaps did not is gonna get a boost in interest, IMO.  I may not be an MCU fan, but I recognize the whole "What happens NEXT?  TELL ME WHAT HAPPENS NEXT!?!?!" discourse all. too. well.  *cough*

 

Additionally, it also helps that folks just like Paul Rudd as Ant-Man (as well as Abby Ryder Fortson as Cassie).  Character likability goes a long way when it comes to franchise growth and, again from what I've seen, both Ant-Man and Cassie have become more popular with time (Evangeline Lilly as Wasp, I don't have as great a hang on so I ain't commenting on her popularity).  Not that I want to over sell this factor, mind.  But just "liking the character" helps and I'll keep mentioning it in passing when I think it is appropriate.

 

Now we're still very very veeeeeeeerrrrrrry early in pre-sales.  But I do think:

 

1] Seeing the Next Big Bad on the Big Screen

and

2] (Finally) Getting the meta-plot moving

and

3] Just liking the characters involved 

 

All help sell tickets.

 

Also helps that Jonathan Majors as Kang seems to have instant screen presence and watchability. And, frankly, I don't think it matters at all that the character was (sorta) introduced in Loki over on D+, as Google Is Free and anyone who is curious enough can find out via the innumerable news articles that are gonna come out about the character/links to various wikis/whatever.  And that's presuming the character isn't properly introduced in the film itself (and I very much presume he will be).

 

So all of this added together might help explain this initial relative surge of interest. 

 

Basically it's Fandom Dynamics > Pre-Existing Data concerning film series.

So far at least.  We'll see if it actually continues.

 

Agree with this rationale for the hot start: most of this phase has been table setting (new characters) and appetizers (mostly standalone films that don't advance the broader story much), and fans are hungry for an entree. That factor may prove more relevant than it being served via an Ant-Man plate (film)

 

But I don't think the CACW analogy quite fits: that was Avengers 2.5 (they were all in it!), but rather the throwaway line I put here:

11 hours ago, M37 said:

If Quantamania is this character’s Ragnarok - vaulting it from T3 into T2

Even though Dark World released after Avengers, it didn't bump much from original Thor - the character was well liked, but mostly as a good looking, funny, but ultimately not that important part of the story. Both the tonal change in Ragnarok (Guardians the shit out of it!) and the relevance to what was coming next bumped Thor from a Tier 3 franchise into Tier 2 (albeit on the lower end, 2B and not 2A), where it remains, despite the lacking quality of Love & Thunder. Introducing Kang via Ant-Man, again with a tonal shift from the heist theme of the first two into something more serious/epic, may do the same.

 

Here's what I mean about Tiers btw, with both Thor and Ant-Man highlighted.  Honestly, Quantamania over Ragnarok or even L&T seems like an interesting proposition at this point

[Porthos]

I'm a simple man.

 

Midpoint of 700-750:    725

Midpoint of 700-1000:  850

Actual:                            782

 

782 - 725 =  57

850 - 782 =  68

 

So....

 

@M37 gets:

 

 

@charlie Jatinder gets:

 

@Menor Reborn?????

 

 

[Deep Wang]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm a simple man.

 

Midpoint of 700-750:    725

Midpoint of 700-1000:  850

Actual:                            782

 

782 - 725 =  57

850 - 782 =  68

 

So....

 

@M37 gets:

 

 

@charlie Jatinder gets:

 

@Menor Reborn?????