The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

Just now, upriser7 said:

Do we know how much % of PLF shows is Avatar2 going to lose this weekend ?

It's losing pretty much everything as far as I can tell. No different from when the first movie lost all IMAX screens to Alice in Wonderland in its 12th weekend.

[Inceptionzq]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is an interesting take. I would have that having a later previous start would hurt it as it will have fewer shows. 🙂

 

Anyway thanks for tracking so many different chains. Any chance of getting the down under tracking working again?

Ant-Man doesn’t get those 3-6PM last minute buyers counted like Eternals did since I only count up to when showings start. But in the end, it shouldn’t move the line too much anyway.

[upriser7]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's losing pretty much everything as far as I can tell. No different from when the first movie lost all IMAX screens to Alice in Wonderland in its 12th weekend.

I am not referring to just IMAX...was talking about PLF shows in general. 60% of Avatar2's shows last week were PLF. Would be surprising if it loses all the PLF shows

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, upriser7 said:

I am not referring to just IMAX...was talking about PLF shows in general. 60% of Avatar2's shows last week were PLF. Would be surprising if it loses all the PLF shows

It's keeping some reall 3d shows along with titanic but the Dolby and imax are gone totally

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, upriser7 said:

I am not referring to just IMAX...was talking about PLF shows in general. 60% of Avatar2's shows last week were PLF. Would be surprising if it loses all the PLF shows

It's looking to lose all PLF screens too. Ant-Man taking over everything as the first tentpole in the two months since Avatar came out.

[filmlover]

In addition to Cocaine Bear's 3,500 estimate for next weekend:

 

 

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Now at 258541/1096961 4373793.01 as shows have started in east coast. Basically matched the presales of T-1 until just around the time shows have started. Let us see how the walkups go. 

At 280840/1097555 4700373.20 now. Paced just under 7K per hour over 3h20m. Now it has to amp up with prime time East Coast shows under way. I am thinking 320-330K finish. 

Edited February 16, 2023 by keysersoze123

[YM!]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

At 280840/1097555 4700373.20 now. Paced just under 7K per hour over 3h20m. Now it has to amp up with prime time East Coast shows under way. I am thinking 320-330K finish. 

How much would that translate previews wise?

[keysersoze123]

Just now, YM! said:

How much would that translate previews wise?

MTC1 should be the 2nd strongest(after drafthouse). Still I think it will over index over there. Wakanda comps will put it around 17.5 - 18m. I think all the trackers will hone in around that number :-)

[keysersoze123]

59 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

It's keeping some reall 3d shows along with titanic but the Dolby and imax are gone totally

I did see couple of RPX shows. Not a lot to move the needle. Its all Real 3D from now on. Let us see how hard it drops today and how soft the increase tomorrow will be. 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:35am - 12:25pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	308	27981	37373	9392	25.13%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	3
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	200
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	738

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET [12:00-12:30]	176.74		642	5314		0/136	13154/18468	28.77%		6409	146.54%		16.79m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	48.26		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	44.48%		17.37m
TGM [11:30-12:30]	90.63		707	10363		2/345	32649/43012	24.09%		11474	81.85%		17.91m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	98.97		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	85.65%		17.81m
L&T [11:30-12:25]	63.01		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	55.37%		18.27m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	63.69		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	55.90%		17.83m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2385/14211  [16.78% sold]
Matinee:    521/3941  [13.22% | 5.55% of all tickets sold]
3D:            1135/6211  [18.27% | 12.08% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

notgreatnotterrible DOT gif

 

Guesstimating around 18m at final bell, presuming Sacto isn't under-performing for Marvel for once.  If Sacto is under-perfoming, I do have a The Batman comp coming in at 19.36m for the mid-day.  But that film (and DC in general) doesn't do as well as Marvel does locally.

 

Just have to see how the rest of the day goes.

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:45pm - 4:30pm]

 * NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:45pm were sampled at the start of their showtimes.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	307	26899	37374	10475	28.03%

 

Total Net Showings Removed Since Mid-Day	1
Total Net Seats Added Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1083

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET [4:50-5:20]	163.44		1095	6409		0/147	12843/19252	33.29%		6409	163.44%		15.53m
Bats [3:00-4:20]	89.10		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	89.10%		19.24m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	49.60		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		21117	49.60%		17.86m
TGM [3:30-4:45]	91.29		1111	11474		2/345	31538/43012	26.68%		11474	91.29%		18.04m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	95.52		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	95.52%		17.19m
L&T [3:45-4:35]	61.76		2056	16962		0/320	23111/40073	42.33%		16962	61.76%		17.91m
BP2 [3:45-4:40]	62.35		2053	16800		2/376	26426/43216	38.87%		16800	62.35%		17.46m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2689/14211  [18.92% sold]
Matinee:    658/3941  [16.70% | 6.28% of all tickets sold]
3D:            1332/6111  [21.80% | 12.72% of all tickets sold]

 

======

 

 

Well... the bleeding stopped?  Yay?

 

I mean, considering it was in semi-free fall, decent enough walkups today.  AND this has a slightly higher 3D percentage than recent Marvel films (MoM [11.32%] | L&T [7.43%] | BP2 [10.98%]).  Knowing how Disney reports, let's go with 18m +/- .5m.

 

And, FWIW, I think I'd say Sacramento is pointing to 18m anyway if I give a slight boost to the recent Marvel comps of 17.86/17.91/17.46 for higher 3D share and slight ticket price increase.  Might be tempted to think that Sacto is pointing to 17.75m, but I think the other comps (with the notable exception of Eternals [which was before ticket price hikes]) all kinda sorta point to 18m-ish anyway so I do feel comfortable with that.

 

So all in all, not nearly as good as initial pre-sales suggested but the bottom didn't fall out.  Plus, objectively speaking, it will easily be the highest Ant-Man preview even when taking ticket inflation into account.

 

Still... Think the gif sums up my thoughts.

Edited February 17, 2023 by Porthos

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

At 280840/1097555 4700373.20 now. Paced just under 7K per hour over 3h20m. Now it has to amp up with prime time East Coast shows under way. I am thinking 320-330K finish. 

Based on trends I was eyeing 315k as of this morning.  320-330k would mean really solid walkups.

[Eric is Quiet]

17 hours ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	240	7279	40895	17.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 809

 

Comp - T-1

1.415x of Black Widow (18.68M)

2.247x of Shang-Chi (19.78M)

1.993x of Eternals (18.93M)

0.278x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (13.89M)

0.738x of The Batman (15.95M)

0.420x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.13M)

0.683x of Thor 4 (19.82M)

0.556x of Black Panther 2 (15.57M)

1.600x of Avatar 2 (27.2M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	240	9261	40895	22.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,982

 

Comp

1.220x of Black Widow (16.1M)

1.949x of Shang-Chi (17.15M)

1.756x of Eternals (16.68M)

0.301x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (15.07M)

0.743x of The Batman (16.06M)

0.450x of Doctor Strange 2 (16.19M)

0.677x of Thor 4 (19.64M)

0.507x of Black Panther 2 (14.2M)

1.527x of Avatar 2 (25.95M)

 

So like...16-18M? Probably, yeah.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Based on trends I was eyeing 315k as of this morning.  320-330k would mean really solid walkups.

you are likely to be closer than me :-) I have no idea. I just assumed greater boost during evening. If it does just 315K, it will be 17m previews only !!!

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

you are likely to be closer than me 🙂 I have no idea. I just assumed greater boost during evening. If it does just 315K, it will be 17m previews only !!!

 

You know, 17m is just .1m higher than an impossible previews number in the 16s...just sayin'.

 

That said, I expect Disney to give a slight Thurs overestimate and to correct into the Friday number, so they can say it's still on path for at least $100m+...at least for 24 more hours...

[Menor the Destroyer]

35 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

you are likely to be closer than me 🙂 I have no idea. I just assumed greater boost during evening. If it does just 315K, it will be 17m previews only !!!

315k seems like it would be enough to get a rounded 18. Unless you're assuming a big overindex in MTC1.

[misterpepp]

Champions tix should be on sale Feb 22.

[charlie Jatinder]

58 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Based on trends I was eyeing 315k as of this morning.  320-330k would mean really solid walkups.

315K is what I had expected. That will be good for $19M I guess.

[Porthos]

*takes a look around town at Shazam 2's partial first day sales*

 

 

============

 

Was thinking of fully tracking it since the first had 9.2m combined previews and sneaks [5.9m previews + 3.3m sneaks].  And Black Adam just did 7.6m, so one would think it'd be at least around that, right?  Hell, even the 5.9m in pure previews from the first filmought to be enough after ticket inflation, right?

 

Right?

 

...

 

Eh.  28 days out may be fucking with things, and I only do have a partial day in so far so I'll still track it I GUESS.

 

But... could be bad, peeps. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*takes a look around town at Shazam 2's partial first day sales*

 

 

============

 

Was thinking of fully tracking it since the first had 9.2m combined previews and sneaks [5.9m previews + 3.3m sneaks].  And Black Adam just did 7.6m, so one would think it'd be at least around that, right?  Hell, even the 5.9m in pure previews from the first filmought to be enough after ticket inflation, right?

 

Right?

 

...

 

Eh.  28 days out may be fucking with things, and I only do have a partial day in so far so I'll still track it I GUESS.

 

But... could be bad, peeps. 

To be fair, it is dropping tickets on the same day that another CBM is opening. There's a lot of crossover between the MCU and DC audience and it probably got lost in the shuffle today.