The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse

 

T-3 Thursday(265 showings): 13710(+1105)/37236 ATP: $15.60

0.893x Ant-Man 3 T-3 (15.62M)

0.691x Black Panther WF T-3 (19.33M)

0.771x Thor L&T T-3 (22.37M)

0.591x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (21.29M)

0.982x Batman T-3 Thurs only (17.28M)

 

T-4 Friday(384 showings): 13401(+1628)/54733 ATP: $15.40

0.899x Ant-Man 3 T-4 (26.02M)

0.567x Black Panther WF T-4 (31.93M)

0.854x Thor L&T T-4 (34.65M)

0.605x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (33.13M)

0.879x Batman T-4 (30.76M)

 

T-5 Saturday(388 showings): 14941(+1648)/55685 ATP: $14.78

0.996x Ant-Man 3 T-5 (33.77M)

0.665x Black Panther WF T-5 (37.31M)

1.02x Thor L&T T-5 (43.11M)

0.635x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (36.69M)

0.920x Batman T-5 (39.82M)

 

T-6 Sunday(352 showings): 8781(+1254)/50062 ATP: $14.45

1.13x Ant-Man T-6 (29.14M)

0.664x Black Panther WF T-6 (27.18M)

0.993x Thor L&T T-6 (32.26M)

0.641x Doctor Strange MoM T-6 (24.94M)

1.05x Batman T-6 (35.99M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse

 

T-2 Thursday(340 showings): 15369(+1659)/43846 ATP: $15.55

0.948x Ant-Man 3 T-2 (16.59M)

0.715x Black Panther WF T-2 (20.01M)

0.808x Thor L&T T-2 (23.43M)

0.598x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (21.53M)

0.961x Batman T-2 Thurs only (16.91M)

 

T-3 Friday(547 showings): 15541(+2140)/69389 ATP: $15.36

0.945x Ant-Man 3 T-3 (27.33M)

0.566x Black Panther WF T-3 (31.88M)

0.899x Thor L&T T-3 (36.44M)

0.601x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (32.88M)

0.833x Batman T-3 (29.15M)

 

T-4 Saturday(579 showings): 17152(+2211)/72661 ATP: $14.77

1.06x Ant-Man 3 T-4 (35.78M)

0.692x Black Panther WF T-4 (38.84M)

1.05x Thor L&T T-4 (44.19M)

0.625x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (36.17M)

0.876x Batman T-4 (37.91M)

 

T-5 Sunday(509 showings): 10021(+1240)/64156 ATP: $14.43

1.18x Ant-Man T-5 (30.34M)

0.666x Black Panther WF T-5 (27.27M)

0.988x Thor L&T T-5 (32.10M)

0.631x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (24.54M)

0.975x Batman T-5 (33.30M)

[screambaby]

2 hours ago, thajdikt said:

140M is basically impossible at this moment in time, and I don´t really think sales can improve to the point that is viable.

110  wouldld be bad but whatever deadline estimates I  usually add atl least 10 million  too.

Edited May 2, 2023 by screambaby

[Shawn Robbins]

Also, I have to respectfully disagree that GOTG2 reception has much to do with the muted buzz here. I'm chalking it up far more to the fact that Infinity War and Endgame effectively served as Vol. 2.5 and wrapped up several key character arcs for the average casual viewer. Although to that point, so did GOTG2 (regarding Peter's parental throughlines).

 

Combined with a six-year gap between direct sequels and general regression of all-audience MCU hype without a clear direction post-Endgame, this is reminding me more of the fourth movie syndrome (think Pirates, Transformers, Shrek, etc.) than the huge trilogy-capper maybe some hoped for on a box office level.

 

And I say all of that as a huge Marvel fan, so I'm not hating on anything in the slightest. It just is what it is right now.

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Oh I don't mean on a pound-for-pound level, just in terms of daily hold ratios. Definitely scaled down from DSITMOM in terms of actual butts in seats.

That makes better sense. It has to increase more on final day as its starting way below that movie. 

[GOGODanca]

Marvel is just in their DCEU era, Wonder Woman despite glowing critics reviews, being the first woman superhero movie and a mid summer release only opened to 103m because BvS and SS had tarnished the brand,same type of thing here imo, if marvel hadn't put up 4 movies with average to bad reception in the previous year and change, GotG3 would open way bigger

Edited May 2, 2023 by GOGODanca

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/1/2023 at 12:18 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	1864	32751	5.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 12:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

76

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

ATP: $14.38

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	1924	32751	5.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

60

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

ATP: $14.38

[ChipDerby]

42 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

 

Much more importantly: since when do MCU trilogy cappers decrease on OW? Oh yeah… never before just now. 

 

This isn't really fair to GOTG3.

Iron Man 3 was the direct follow up to Avengers, Civil War added literally all the other Avengers, Ragnarok completely revamped the character, Far From Home added all the other Spider-Men + Doctor Strange, and Quantumania was the beginning of the next big villain.

 

GOTG3 is pretty much just the ending of a more or less self contained story.

[keysersoze123]

At MTC2 it has had huge increase in allocations which was expected considering how low it was. its still slightly below Ant 3. May be they will add few more in next 2 days. MTC1 have seen very tiny increase which was expected considering it already started at higher number than final Ant 3 number. But its well below wakanda and other biggies last year. 

 

 

Does @katnisscinnaplex post these days. It would be great to get 1 time show count across all chains this weekend. 

Edited May 2, 2023 by keysersoze123

[MovieMan89]

37 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

This isn't really fair to GOTG3.

Iron Man 3 was the direct follow up to Avengers, Civil War added literally all the other Avengers, Ragnarok completely revamped the character, Far From Home added all the other Spider-Men + Doctor Strange, and Quantumania was the beginning of the next big villain.

 

GOTG3 is pretty much just the ending of a more or less self contained story.

Thor had no real added incentive on OW. WOM was the incentive there. And you’re leaving out the 6 years of inflation of it all. It’s a wild wild reach for anyone to claim Disney didn’t fully expect this to breeze past 2s OW with ease when it was put on the cal. 

Edited May 2, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Thor had no real added incentive on OW. WOM was the incentive there. And the 6 years of inflation of it all. It’s a wild wild reach for anyone to claim Disney didn’t fully expect this to breeze past 2s OW with ease when it was put on the cal. 

What does this have to do with tracking. Like dude, we get it. You said what you had to. The amount of posts in here that basically celebrate movies flopping or whatever is getting old.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

What does this have to do with tracking. Like dude, we get it. You said what you had to. The amount of posts in here that basically celebrate movies flopping or whatever is getting old.

Because the tracking is showing an opening that Disney would have probably said was “ impossible” for it just last year. That was my only point before some others started with the revisionist history that somehow this movie was never going to do very well. That’s a silly notion. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/1/2023 at 2:05 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Fast X

 

THURSDAY

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	1469	28103	5.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 2:00pm EST}

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Fast X

 

THURSDAY

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	1509	28103	5.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 7:00pm EST}

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

ATP - $13.60

 

Finally, a good jump. Thinking a few people saw the Open Road trailer today 

[Eric the Minion]

Quorum Updates

Fast X T-18: 56% Awareness, 6.15 Interest

Asteroid City T-53: 14.56%, 4.83

The Equalizer 3 T-123: 39.67%, 6.01

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 T-130: 25.87%, 5.09

Kraven the Hunter T-158: 16.09%, 4.62

Wish T-205: 22.39%, 5.07

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-4: 58.95% Awareness, 6.57 Interest

Final Awareness: 7% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 25% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

Love Again T-4: 22.66% Awareness, 5.07 Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 41% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 20% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

The Boogeyman T-32: 32.73% Awareness, 5.96 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M, 42% chance of 30M

T-30 Interest: 81% chance of 10M, 65% chance of 20M, 58% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 67% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 30M

 

Ruby Gillman T-60: 18.26% Awareness, 4.32 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 23% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 34% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 50% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 60% chance of 10M

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, I Am Eric said:

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-4: 58.95% Awareness, 6.57 Interest

Final Awareness: 7% chance of 100M

 

It's over

 

 

Quote

Final Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

We're back

 

Quote

DC/MCU Awareness: 25% chance of 100M

It never even began

 

Quote

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

We never left

[ThomasNicole]

34 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Because the tracking is showing an opening that Disney would have probably said was “ impossible” for it just last year. That was my only point before some others started with the revisionist history that somehow this movie was never going to do very well. That’s a silly notion. 

Hardly anyone here is doing revisionism, Disney wouldn´t expect this a year before and honestly, overall we didn´t either

 

We´re all surprised in some degree, MCU relationship with audiences completely changed in less than 2 years, we´re seeing diminishing returns, problems with legs, rejection from audiences etc in real time every 3 months with movies and TV shows, it´s impossible to really know what´s happening in a situation like this where everything is changing so quick.

 

But just because someone said they expected this result, doesn´t mean everyone here agreed to justify so many posts pointing the same thing we´re all discussing for weeks, we know that, and pretty much everyone agreed.

Edited May 2, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[vafrow]

It's not a surprise, but, Blackberry looks like it will be getting a very wide release in Canada.

 

With showtimes for the next week up, it looks like 75% of the Cineplex theatres near me have it showing at least. 

 

I'm excited to see this, and happy I don't have to travel far to watch it. But, I'm skeptical if this will get traction here with such a wide localized release like this. 

[keysersoze123]

I think biggest downer today will be lack of major presales boost. That is not a shocker per say as there is zero catalyst today unlike for most MCU movies when reviews are out today adding significant buzz. Here I did not even see new tv spots today. 

[ZackM]

36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think biggest downer today will be lack of major presales boost. That is not a shocker per say as there is zero catalyst today unlike for most MCU movies when reviews are out today adding significant buzz. Here I did not even see new tv spots today. 

I did a quick run an hour ago just to see where things were at and Alpha had only added about 11k.  Obviously sales peak in the evening, but there aren't many hours left until my normal tracking time.

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Thor had no real added incentive on OW. WOM was the incentive there. And you’re leaving out the 6 years of inflation of it all. It’s a wild wild reach for anyone to claim Disney didn’t fully expect this to breeze past 2s OW with ease when it was put on the cal. 

Thor 3 added Hulk and had showstopping trailers 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/1/2023 at 7:18 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
232	8089	34913	23.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 7:00pm EST}

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

459

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

Good jump today

Prediction right now: $19M THUR $125M OW 

 

ATP - $14.40

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
244	8673	41299	21.0%

^{*Numbers taken as of 9:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

584

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

1

ATP - $14.67

 

Good news, lots of new showings added.

Sticking with the $19M THUR $120M-125M OW (I'm optimistic)

@Menor Reborn Maybe a 10k finish, probably falls short of Mario's 12k