The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

Just wanted to throw out this little thing I whipped up the other day.  Ranges and midpoints are based on my analysis of sales data and comps, and certainly room to quibble on whether they should be shifted a bit, but IMO overall gives a big picture view of potential outcomes, as well as the likelihood and path needed to get there

 

GOTG3 OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$15.0	$15.5	$16.0	$16.5	$17.0	$17.5	$18.0	$18.5	$19.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.80	$87.0	$89.9	$92.8	$95.7	$98.6	$101.5	$104.4	$107.3	$110.2
	5.95	$89.3	$92.2	$95.2	$98.2	$101.2	$104.1	$107.1	$110.1	$113.1
	6.10	$91.5	$94.6	$97.6	$100.7	$103.7	$106.8	$109.8	$112.9	$115.9
	6.25	$93.8	$96.9	$100.0	$103.1	$106.3	$109.4	$112.5	$115.6	$118.8
	6.40	$96.0	$99.2	$102.4	$105.6	$108.8	$112.0	$115.2	$118.4	$121.6
	6.55	$98.3	$101.5	$104.8	$108.1	$111.4	$114.6	$117.9	$121.2	$124.5
	6.70	$100.5	$103.9	$107.2	$110.6	$113.9	$117.3	$120.6	$124.0	$127.3
	6.85	$102.8	$106.2	$109.6	$113.0	$116.5	$119.9	$123.3	$126.7	$130.2
	7.00	$105.0	$108.5	$112.0	$115.5	$119.0	$122.5	$126.0	$129.5	$133.0

 

Need to see one more day of this growth rate sustaining, vs the typical T-2 review bump comps, before that preview range gets bumped any higher

 

Any feedback on the format is appreciated

[SpiderByte]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Hardly anyone here is doing revisionism, Disney wouldn´t expect this a year before and honestly, overall we didn´t either

 

We´re all surprised in some degree, MCU relationship with audiences completely changed in less than 2 years, we´re seeing diminishing returns, problems with legs, rejection from audiences etc in real time every 3 months with movies and TV shows, it´s impossible to really know what´s happening in a situation like this where everything is changing so quick.

 

But just because someone said they expected this result, doesn´t mean everyone here agreed to justify so many posts pointing the same thing we´re all discussing for weeks, we know that, and pretty much everyone agreed.

Did you say anything about this with Shazam it Dungeons and Dragons when it opened to less than a Quarter what Guardians is looking at, because if not your conceit is looking kinda thin. Especially the supposed "mass rejection" of the shows, when the Disney+ stuff has been the best reviewed stuff in the franchises history.

Edited May 3, 2023 by SpiderByte

[DisposedData]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

Did you say anything about this with Shazam it Dungeons and Dragons when it opened to less than a Quarter what Guardians is looking at, because if not your conceit is looking kinda thin 

It's almost like big IPs have big expectations.. shocking right?

[SpiderByte]

1 minute ago, DisposedData said:

It's almost like big IPs have big expectations.. shocking right?

DC and Dungeons and Dragons are not small IPs

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

Did you say anything about this with Shazam it Dungeons and Dragons when it opened to less than a Quarter what Guardians is looking at, because if not your conceit is looking kinda thin 

There´s nothing to say about Shazam and D&D, they´re both certified huge bombs ... nothing about them to argue, discuss, make counterpoints or spin it positively

 

With MCU we have a lot of projects and data to sustain a discussion about possibilities which is what we´re doing with Guardians for weeks ... so i don´t know what type of ´´got you´´ moment you´re trying here but ok

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

DC and Dungeons and Dragons are not small IPs

you are comparing a marvel trilogy finale which is following up a 870m installment to a niche game adapation

[ThomasNicole]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just wanted to throw out this little thing I whipped up the other day.  Ranges and midpoints are based on my analysis of sales data and comps, and certainly room to quibble on whether they should be shifted a bit, but IMO overall gives a big picture view of potential outcomes, as well as the likelihood and path needed to get there

 

GOTG3 OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$15.0	$15.5	$16.0	$16.5	$17.0	$17.5	$18.0	$18.5	$19.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.80	$87.0	$89.9	$92.8	$95.7	$98.6	$101.5	$104.4	$107.3	$110.2
	5.95	$89.3	$92.2	$95.2	$98.2	$101.2	$104.1	$107.1	$110.1	$113.1
	6.10	$91.5	$94.6	$97.6	$100.7	$103.7	$106.8	$109.8	$112.9	$115.9
	6.25	$93.8	$96.9	$100.0	$103.1	$106.3	$109.4	$112.5	$115.6	$118.8
	6.40	$96.0	$99.2	$102.4	$105.6	$108.8	$112.0	$115.2	$118.4	$121.6
	6.55	$98.3	$101.5	$104.8	$108.1	$111.4	$114.6	$117.9	$121.2	$124.5
	6.70	$100.5	$103.9	$107.2	$110.6	$113.9	$117.3	$120.6	$124.0	$127.3
	6.85	$102.8	$106.2	$109.6	$113.0	$116.5	$119.9	$123.3	$126.7	$130.2
	7.00	$105.0	$108.5	$112.0	$115.5	$119.0	$122.5	$126.0	$129.5	$133.0

 

Need to see one more day of this growth rate sustaining, vs the typical T-2 review bump comps, before that preview range gets bumped any higher

 

Any feedback on the format is appreciated

Amazing, one of the best graphics i´ve seen recently

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

I did a quick run an hour ago just to see where things were at and Alpha had only added about 11k.  Obviously sales peak in the evening, but there aren't many hours left until my normal tracking time.

if the trend persists tomorrow. oh boy. I will have to revisit the low end for sure. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Hey real quick I wanna thank our trackers for keeping us updated continuously and clearly. Appreciate all the work you guys do. 

[Eric the Minion]

20 hours ago, I Am Eric said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	225	5287	40176	13.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 597

 

Comp - T-3

1.446x of Black Widow (19.09M)

2.297x of Shang-Chi (20.21M)

1.929x of Eternals (18.32M)

0.367x of Doctor Strange 2 (13.21M)

0.639x of Thor 4 (18.54M)

0.495x of Black Panther 2 (13.87M)

0.888x of Ant-Man 3 (15.55M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	225	5799	40176	14.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 512

 

Comp - T-2

1.353x of Black Widow (17.85M)

2.207x of Shang-Chi (19.43M)

1.849x of Eternals (17.57M)

0.373x of Doctor Strange 2 (13.43M)

0.628x of Thor 4 (18.22M)

0.500x of Black Panther 2 (14M)

0.896x of Ant-Man 3 (15.68M)

[Eric the Minion]

20 hours ago, I Am Eric said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	625	20135	3.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 28

 

Comp - T-17

0.995x of F9 (7.07M)

0.412x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.41M)

2.376x of Nope (15.21M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	652	20135	3.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 27

 

Comp - T-16

0.982x of F9 (6.97M)

0.415x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.48M)

2.388x of Nope (15.28M)

[ringedmortality]

So if Little Mermaid does have a 10m preview, what would that translate to OW?

[GOGODanca]

12 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So if Little Mermaid does have a 10m preview, what would that translate to OW?

Aladdin did 7m previews (early fan screenings and official previews started at 6pm) on its way to 116.8m (16.7x multiplier) 91m for 3 day (13x)

 

TLM has early fan screenings and previews starting at 3PM, should be a little more frontloaded but still 100m  for 3 day unless its just bad

Edited May 3, 2023 by GOGODanca

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So if Little Mermaid does have a 10m preview, what would that translate to OW?

Less than 100M would surprise me considering SUN will be inflated, nothing about it so far it´s screaming frontloaded 

 

I think it can do a bit better in previews tho, let´s see

[Eric the Minion]

20 hours ago, I Am Eric said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	757	28586	2.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp - T-24

4.351x of Sonic 2 (27.19M)

0.135x of Black Panther 2 (3.79M)

0.844x of Avatar 2 (14.35M)

0.767x of Mario (24.31M)

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	812	28586	2.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp - T-23

3.328x of Sonic 2 (20.8M)

0.598x of Jurassic World: Dominion (10.77M)

0.730x of Avatar 2 (12.41M)

0.772x of Mario (24.47M)

 

Porthos made me realize Dominion worked well as a comp, and I think this will come in handy as Sonic and Avatar are still in their weird growing pains as films that just started their first two days of presales while Mermaid's been around about a week longer. And yeah, I'm with Porthos that it's been having a very strong run so far. This will be a fun one to look at.

[ThomasNicole]

Also, fwiw, Little Mermaid premieres on May 8th and apparently reactions will be allowed right after, so keep that in mind if there´s a sudden jump in numbers

[Eric the Minion]

9 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So if Little Mermaid does have a 10m preview, what would that translate to OW?

Around 100M or so for the 3-day, give or take 10M higher depending on how much it plays towards families that will go later in the weekend. Either way, very very good and one of the biggest Memorial Day openers ever.

[YM!]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

DC and Dungeons and Dragons are not small IPs

No but they’re nowhere near as big as Marvel.
 

Like Warner Animation Group has IP but their quality and box office standards are lower. It’s why a bomb for WAG isn’t as big a deal for a bomb for Pixar because it’s commonplace.

[Flip]

17 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Also, fwiw, Little Mermaid premieres on May 8th and apparently reactions will be allowed right after, so keep that in mind if there´s a sudden jump in numbers

Have they done this with any other of the remakes or is this not standard?

[Flamengo81]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Just wanted to throw out this little thing I whipped up the other day.  Ranges and midpoints are based on my analysis of sales data and comps, and certainly room to quibble on whether they should be shifted a bit, but IMO overall gives a big picture view of potential outcomes, as well as the likelihood and path needed to get there

 

GOTG3 OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$15.0	$15.5	$16.0	$16.5	$17.0	$17.5	$18.0	$18.5	$19.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.80	$87.0	$89.9	$92.8	$95.7	$98.6	$101.5	$104.4	$107.3	$110.2
	5.95	$89.3	$92.2	$95.2	$98.2	$101.2	$104.1	$107.1	$110.1	$113.1
	6.10	$91.5	$94.6	$97.6	$100.7	$103.7	$106.8	$109.8	$112.9	$115.9
	6.25	$93.8	$96.9	$100.0	$103.1	$106.3	$109.4	$112.5	$115.6	$118.8
	6.40	$96.0	$99.2	$102.4	$105.6	$108.8	$112.0	$115.2	$118.4	$121.6
	6.55	$98.3	$101.5	$104.8	$108.1	$111.4	$114.6	$117.9	$121.2	$124.5
	6.70	$100.5	$103.9	$107.2	$110.6	$113.9	$117.3	$120.6	$124.0	$127.3
	6.85	$102.8	$106.2	$109.6	$113.0	$116.5	$119.9	$123.3	$126.7	$130.2
	7.00	$105.0	$108.5	$112.0	$115.5	$119.0	$122.5	$126.0	$129.5	$133.0

 

Need to see one more day of this growth rate sustaining, vs the typical T-2 review bump comps, before that preview range gets bumped any higher

 

Any feedback on the format is appreciated

I really liked it the format. I really appreaciate your analysis M37, it's very cool to see someone so knowledgeable and passionate at something.