The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[MightyDargon]

I don't see Indy as a "GA movie" so much as an 80s/90s kids movie. Sadly Crystal Skull burned the boat on making it an 00s kids movie.

[ringedmortality]

So Indy is going for sub 100 right? Probably good news for The Flash and Mission Impossible.

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

I mean… yeah 😛 

Didn't work for Guardians. Final week comps kept going down. JWD is a unique beast. I guess dinos make it a family flick. 

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So Indy is going for sub 100 right? Probably good news for The Flash and Mission Impossible.

Wait. Who said anything about that. We dont have any presales data yet except a random comps from Charlie. Wait till this evening. I am not saying the presales are bad or anything. 

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

TGM is a problematic comp for Sacramento, however.  Denver as well for probably similar reasons.

 

(the more I think about it, the more I think the historical military base tie in was the reason it had such a massive start both here and in Denver)

 

EDIT:::

 

I would also add that NTTD only had 21 days of pre-sales (starting at T-20), so any comps against a film that'll be nearly double that (38 days of pre-sales, if my math is right) is also gonna have... difficulty.  Was already toying with A2 as a comp though, as well as NTTD for first day sales.

Fair enough on those objections. but I would be hesitant to lean on JWD, because I expect it will overestimate the trajectory and corresponding comp value

 

Looking at the numbers a bit, GOTG3 might actually be a decent comp given how atypically backloaded it was for genre, or maybe even Dune for that earlier period, before roping in the Avatar 2/TGM/NTTD grouping a bit later (like T-14)

[raegr]

Very early and anecdotal but... 

 

 

The weekend will be a little more frontloaded due to the fan screenings probably being included with the thursday screenings, but they'd be smart to inflate the thursday numbers to pump up hype

[raegr]

Ok, so i've been messing around and looking at the fan screenings pre-sales for The Flash for June 12th. Most theatres are 50-75% filled. Some of them are nearly sold out. We need to wait for better data tomorrow because fan rush might be boosting the demand. I imagine that this film will have lots of fan hype and good walkups because of the gen x crowd but we will see. When does tracking from the trades come out?

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, raegr said:

Very early and anecdotal but... 

 

 

The weekend will be a little more frontloaded due to the fan screenings probably being included with the thursday screenings, but they'd be smart to inflate the thursday numbers to pump up hype

 

Those are extremely limited, as they are only in 21 markets, according to this:

 

 

Not nothing, but not a huge deal, either.

 

None, locally, for instance.  Is in Denver and Philly, however ("luckily" for @Inceptionzq and @Prince Eric)

Edited May 22, 2023 by Porthos

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Those are extremely limited, as they are only in 21 markets, according to this:

 

 

Not nothing, but not a huge deal, either.

 

None, locally, for instance.  Isin Denver and Philly, however ("luckily" for @Inceptionzq and @Prince Eric)

 

That's not a comprehensive list since I booked in Irvine which isn't included there.

[raegr]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Those are extremely limited, as they are only in 21 markets, according to this:

 

 

Not nothing, but not a huge deal, either.

 

None, locally, for instance.  Is in Denver and Philly, however ("luckily" for @Inceptionzq and @Prince Eric)

Gotcha gotcha! Yeah, we'll get a much bigger picture tomorrow. I think there will be a lot of fan interest out of the gate, it will slow down and then have a strong showing in the days leading up to it. Tbh, previews and initial pre-sales don't matter. JW Dominion and Guardians have shown us that. What is most important is WOM/cinemascore, critics and whether Gen X shows up to support Keaton. 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

That's not a comprehensive list since I booked in Irvine which isn't included there.

 

*double checks non-Fandango theaters I track*

*checks corp sites for that matter*

 

Irvine but not Sacramento?  Okay, that's just fucking weird. 

 

I got nothing. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[grim22]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

*double checks non-Fandango theaters I track*

*checks corp sites for that matter*

 

Irvine but not Sacramento?  Okay, that's just fucking weird. 

 

I got nothing. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Irvine Spectrum is a great IMAX screen tbf 

[M37]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

*double checks non-Fandango theaters I track*

*checks corp sites for that matter*

 

Irvine but not Sacramento?  Okay, that's just fucking weird. 

 

I got nothing. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Couple things:

 

Looks like they started with the top 30 markets (for which Irvine is part of Los Angeles DMA), then cut some out to get to 21, and even then only select (ie busy) theaters, not even a full run at every IMAX in said markets. No shows in Tampa/St Pete (#12 DMA), and only ONE each in Orlando and Miami

 

It also appears like the goal is have a nearly simultaneous viewing, with East Coast shows at 10pm, MW at 930p, Denver at 830p and CA at 730p (either because presumably to get whatever social media reactions come out and them trending in one big burst, or maybe these are IMAX Live locations and there's extra content?)

 

Interesting strategy, rather than just have the more typical EA shows at every IMAX/PLF screen. They must really think they have a winner of a film on their hands (much like Paramount with TGM last year, who were right)

[MightyDargon]

Not sure I'm willing to call Flash breakout yet based on VERY early sales figs for the highly promoted fan screenings.

I'm wondering if WB should just allow critic reviews and hope for a "reverse Indy" effect.

[grim22]

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

Couple things:

 

Looks like they started with the top 30 markets (for which Irvine is part of Los Angeles DMA), then cut some out to get to 21, and even then only select (ie busy) theaters, not even a full run at every IMAX in said markets. No shows in Tampa/St Pete (#12 DMA), and only ONE each in Orlando and Miami

 

It also appears like the goal is have a nearly simultaneous viewing, with East Coast shows at 10pm, MW at 930p, Denver at 830p and CA at 730p (either because presumably to get whatever social media reactions come out and them trending in one big burst, or maybe these are IMAX Live locations and there's extra content?)

 

Interesting strategy, rather than just have the more typical EA shows at every IMAX/PLF screen. They must really think they have a winner of a film on their hands (much like Paramount with TGM last year, who were right)

 

My guess - embargo will be lifted at midnight on the 12th. So mixing the fan screening reactions with the critical reviews to try and get that final ticket sales boost.

[SpiderByte]

Fan screenings are hard to use as a metric compared to say Thursday previews

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, Flopped said:

I know others have asked but any news on how Boogeyman is doing? 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Boogeyman

 

THURSDAY 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
26	83	2661	3.1%

^{*Numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

I don't have comps this far out, but Hypnotic sold 82 tickets as of T-1 so at least Boogeyman is far ahead of that 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/21/2023 at 4:28 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	1157	22296	5.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

32

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Not so bad actually. Thinking something like $6.5M previews $52M+ OW

 

COMPS

T-18

 

Fast X

(0.842x) ~$6.3M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	1171	22296	5.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-17

 

Fast X

(0.848x) ~$6.4M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/21/2023 at 4:29 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
121	3581	26292	13.6%

*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

133

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

 

COMPS

T-11

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.636x) ~$11.1M THUR

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
121	3744	26292	14.2%

*Numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

163

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

 

COMPS

T-10

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.615x) ~$10.8M THUR

[GOGODanca]

WB should open up the review embargo 2 weeks out like Top Gun did