The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

T-8 Thursday

154 Showings

5585

+325

23460

ATP:

15.92

0.484	Ant-Man 3 T-8	8.47M
0.413	Thor L&T T-8	11.98M

1.050

Eternals  T-8

9.97M

 

T-9 Friday

180 Showings

5208

+363

29390

ATP:

15.93

0.496	Ant-Man 3 T-9	14.36M
0.453	Thor L&T T-9	18.39M

1.077

Eternals  T-9

22.98M

 

T-10 Saturday

173 Showings

5013

+299

28500

0.469	Ant-Man 3 T-10	15.91M
0.461	Thor L&T T-10	19.43M

1.024

Eternals  T-10

24.71M

 

T-11 Sunday

156 Showings

3139

+257

25682

0.606	Ant-Man 3 T-11	15.62M
0.519	Thor L&T T-11	16.86M

1.096

Eternals T-11

17.90M

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

T-7 Thursday

158 Showings

6280

+695

23899

ATP:

15.93

0.441	Thor L&T T-7	12.79M
0.576	Batman Thurs only T-7	10.14M
1.144	Eternals  T-7	10.87M

 

T-8 Friday

182 Showings

5616

+408

29572

ATP:

15.91

0.471	Thor L&T T-8	19.08M
0.520	Batman T-8	18.23M
1.110	Eternals  T-8	23.69M

 

T-9 Saturday

173 Showings

5297

+284

28500

0.466	Thor L&T T-9	19.62M
0.491	Batman T-9	21.26M
1.042	Eternals  T-9	25.14M

 

T-10 Sunday

156 Showings

3330

+191

25682

0.523	Thor L&T T-10	16.98M
0.684	Batman T-10	23.35M
1.131	Eternals T-10	18.46M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

151

1890

7.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

82

1179

6.96%

 

Monday: 173(+5)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 6 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
509	18	19882	2.56%	13	106

 

0.488x Guardians 3 Day 2 (8.54M)

0.356x Ant-Man 3 Day 2 (6.23M)

2.24x Black Adam Day 2 (17.05M)

0.212x Thor L&T Day 2 (6.15M)

0.255x Batman Day 2 (5.52M)

0.878x Eternals Day 2 (8.34M)

0.864x Black Widow Day 2 (11.41M)

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

187

2188

8.55%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

94

1179

7.97%

 

Monday: 180(+7)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
584	75	20180	2.89%	13	106

 

0.374x Ant-Man 3 Day 3 (6.55M)

2.20x Black Adam Day 3 (16.69M)

0.208x Thor L&T T-21 (6.05M)

0.850x Eternals T-21 (8.07M)

0.628x Black Widow T-21 (8.29M)

 

Fully switching over to T-X comps starting tomorrow.

[21C]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

You would think the glowing reviews might help though.

They didn't help Dungeons and Dragons. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse [+6 hours of sales]

T-22 Thursday

117 Showings

1453

+62

19281

ATP:

15.93

0.260	Guardians Day 2	4.55M
0.219	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	3.83M
1.887	Black Adam Day 2	14.34M
0.169	Thor L&T Day 2	4.89M
0.224	The Batman Day 2	3.93M

 

T-23 Friday

155 Showings

838

+49

26123

ATP:

16.26

0.234	Guardians Day 2	7.17M
0.190	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	5.50M
1.483	Black Adam Day 2	28.31M
0.140	Thor L&T Day 2	5.70M
0.138	The Batman Day 2	4.85M

 

T-24 Saturday

149 Showings

728

+46

24666

ATP:

15.21

0.186	Guardians Day 2	7.23M
0.169	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	5.72M
1.217	Black Adam Day 2	28.86M
0.141	Thor L&T Day 2	5.93M
0.147	The Batman Day 2	6.36M

 

T-25 Sunday

134 Showings

289

+20

22715

ATP:

14.50

0.171	Guardians Day 2	5.37M
0.187	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	4.82M
1.671	Black Adam Day 2	27.74M
0.115	Thor L&T Day 2	3.75M
0.154	The Batman Day 2	5.27M

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-21 Thursday

117 Showings

1637

+184

19281

ATP:

15.86

0.233	Ant-Man 3 Day 3	4.07M
1.953	Black Adam Day 3	14.85M
0.175	Thor L&T T-21	5.07M

0.578

Eternals T-21

5.49M

 

T-22 Friday

155 Showings

942

+104

26123

ATP:

16.20

0.195 Ant-Man 3 Day 3 5.64M 1.534 Black Adam Day 3 29.29M 0.139 Thor L&T T-22 5.62M

0.434

Eternals T-22

9.27M

 

T-23 Saturday

149 Showings

816

+88

24666

ATP:

15.25

0.172	Ant-Man 3 Day 3	5.84M
1.200	Black Adam Day 3	28.45M
0.135	Thor L&T T-23	5.70M

0.377

Eternals T-23

9.09M

 

T-24 Sunday

133 Showings

339

+50

22541

ATP:

14.50

0.200	Ant-Man 3 Day 3	5.16M
1.704	Black Adam Day 3	28.28M
0.118	Thor L&T T-24	3.85M

0.302

Eternals T-24

4.93M

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

86

2338

3.68%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

117

1365

8.57%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
385	20	20932	1.84%	13	104

 

0.284x Avatar 2 Day 3 (4.83M)

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

96

2338

4.11%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

117

1365

8.57%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
407	22	20932	1.94%	13	104

[Shawn Robbins]

The updated range for Flash in tomorrow's long range on BOP is going to frustrate the lot of you and I apologize in advance. 🤪

 

I'm not saying tracking these June releases is going to break me, but it might break me. My eyes and brain hurt. I just want to go outside and enjoy the sunlight.

 

Happy Memorial Day!

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-36 Thursday

112 Showings

2575

+294

18367

ATP:

15.79

1.23

Avatar 2 Day 3

20.87M

 

T-37 Friday

157 Showings

2035

+208

26292

ATP:

15.45

0.83

Avatar 2 Day 3

29.99M

 

T-38 Saturday

158 Showings

1781

+236

26681

ATP:

14.85

0.64

Avatar 2 Day 3

28.37M

 

T-39 Sunday

143 Showings

804

+134

24390

ATP:

14.46

0.62

Avatar 2 Day 3

22.58M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-35 Thursday

112 Showings

2755

+180

18367

ATP:

15.79

 

T-36 Friday

157 Showings

2218

+183

26292

ATP:

15.50

 

T-37 Saturday

158 Showings

1910

+129

26681

ATP:

14.82

 

T-38 Sunday

143 Showings

857

+53

24390

ATP:

14.48

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Shawn said:

The updated range for Flash in tomorrow's long range on BOP is going to frustrate the lot of you and I apologize in advance. 🤪

 

I'm not saying tracking these June releases is going to break me, but it might break me. My eyes and brain hurt. I just want to go outside and enjoy the sunlight.

 

Happy Memorial Day!

 

I will say that if we do end up with a scenario where all of June ends up underperforming (minus Spider-Man, which seems destined to be huge) then yeah, everyone can go ahead with the panic button pressing lol.

Edited May 25, 2023 by filmlover

[TheFlatLannister]

13 minutes ago, Shawn said:

The updated range for Flash in tomorrow's long range on BOP is going to frustrate the lot of you and I apologize in advance. 🤪

 

I'm not saying tracking these June releases is going to break me, but it might break me. My eyes and brain hurt. I just want to go outside and enjoy the sunlight.

 

Happy Memorial Day!

No one should be upset with the updated ranges. Data is data. Nothing can be done about that except to tweak projections accordingly. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

The updated range for Flash in tomorrow's long range on BOP is going to frustrate the lot of you and I apologize in advance. 🤪

 

I'm not saying tracking these June releases is going to break me, but it might break me. My eyes and brain hurt. I just want to go outside and enjoy the sunlight.

 

Happy Memorial Day!

As always, I Appreciate the work you do for us Shawn.

[ringedmortality]

24 minutes ago, Shawn said:

The updated range for Flash in tomorrow's long range on BOP is going to frustrate the lot of you and I apologize in advance. 🤪

 

I'm not saying tracking these June releases is going to break me, but it might break me. My eyes and brain hurt. I just want to go outside and enjoy the sunlight.

 

Happy Memorial Day!

150+ OW here we go

[keysersoze123]

18 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 106436/957084 1800864.76 5892 shows +17872

Mermaid MTC1 Previews update - 150683/958064 2535158.27 5913 shows

 

This is as of just now. its almost 7PM at east coast. Peak hours are next 3 hours and then it slows to a trickle. I am thinking ~11.5m previews for now including early shows. Let us see how it ends up. 

[cooldude97]

26 minutes ago, Shawn said:

The updated range for Flash in tomorrow's long range on BOP is going to frustrate the lot of you and I apologize in advance. 🤪

 

I'm not saying tracking these June releases is going to break me, but it might break me. My eyes and brain hurt. I just want to go outside and enjoy the sunlight.

 

Happy Memorial Day!

box office predictions are not as important as one's health, take care of yourself buddy

[Wesley]

That 70M early tracking for The Flash is a joke there is no way this will only open to $5M more than Black Adam when its tracking way over it in multiple trackings from people here. Plus reviews will definitely be better too for it that will take this over 100M for sure. The curiosity factor also will be high for it. 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:15pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	225	23553	29156	5603	19.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

629

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GBA [12:00-12:25]	224.75		413	2493		0/192	21771/24264	10.27%		3134	178.78%		10.11m
Sonic 2 [11:40-12:05]	172.56		364	3247		0/126	12668/15915	20.40%		3951	141.81%		10.78m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	59.04		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	51.09%		10.63m
BA [11:35-12:25]	154.78		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	124.68%		11.76m
Wick 4 [11:45-12:20]	128.95		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	102.85%		11.48m
GOTG3 [11:30-12:20]	60.91		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	52.12%		10.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        956/8203  [11.65% sold]
Matinee:    438/2559  [17.12% | 7.82% of all tickets sold]
3D:             637/4318  [14.75% | 11.37% of all tickets sold]
———

Wed:          540/1517  [35.60% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:       5063/27639  [18.32% sold] [+629 tickets]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.67357x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-1 [13.47m]    
TLM = 0.94432x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-1      [13.03m]    
TLM = 0.56369x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-1      [14.91m]    
TLM = 1.18919x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-1           [11.62m]     

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

===

 

Removed the Scream VI comp as it had long outlived its usefulness, added GBA and GOTG3 comps.  Might add Minions 2 at final bell.  Solid enough start, if a bit uneven in the region.  Have to see how the rest of the day goes, but looking like 10.5m - 11.25m is the range from Sacto comps, especially with early access and 3D factored in.

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:15pm]

NOTE:  All showtimes before 3:50pm were sampled at the start of their respective showing.

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	23202	29763	6561	22.04%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	10
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	607
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	958

 

T-0 Comps:

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GBA [3:50 - 4:30]	216.25		541	3034		0/192	21230/24264	12.50%		3134	209.35%		9.73m
Sonic 2 [3:55-4:15]	166.06		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	166.06%		10.38m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	59.83		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	59.83%		10.77m
Min 2 [3:50-4:20]	99.54		1571	6591		0/218	23799/30390	21.69%		6591	99.54%		10.70m
BA [3:45-4:35]	145.99		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	145.99%		11.10m
Wick 4 [3:50-4:15]	120.43		1103	5448		0/186	17238/22686	24.01%		5448	120.43%		10.72m
GOTG3 [3:45-4:30]	61.03		1551	10750		0/347	31169/41919	25.64%		10750	61.03%		10.68m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1197/8203  [14.59% sold]
Matinee:    568/2559  [22.20% | 8.66% of all tickets sold]
3D:            794/4492  [17.68% | 12.10% of all tickets sold]
Wed:           540/1517  [35.60% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:        6021/28246  [21.32% sold] [+958 tickets]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.54333x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [12.42m]    
TLM = 0.89755x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-0       [12.39m]    
TLM = 0.54833x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-0       [14.50m]    
TLM = 1.19036x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-0          [11.64m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

===

 

A nice solid amount of walkups, but not an amazo day of one.  Was showings added throughout the day, which is always a good sign, but there is still some very real regional variance at play where TLM was much stronger in some parts of the area than others.

 

All in all, with EA showtimes yesterday, 3D, and knowing Disney has been going for clean numbers lately, gonna call for an even 11m +/- .6m.  Think it's probably closer to 10.75m but I don't trust Disney to report it like that.

 

Could just be underperforming locally/me not picking the right comps.  Just have to see.  Should have a very strong weekend, regardless.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Porthos

[DAJK]

Yea TLM isn't really connecting here today the way I think a 100M+ opener should be. Oh well, it's going to be very weekend-heavy, and US-heavy. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

The updated range for Flash in tomorrow's long range on BOP is going to frustrate the lot of you and I apologize in advance. 🤪

 

 

80m - 140m DEADLINE-ESQUE  OW PREDICTION INCOMING!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 25, 2023 by Porthos

[vinny2487]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

The updated range for Flash in tomorrow's long range on BOP is going to frustrate the lot of you and I apologize in advance. 🤪

 

I'm not saying tracking these June releases is going to break me, but it might break me. My eyes and brain hurt. I just want to go outside and enjoy the sunlight.

 

Happy Memorial Day!

So I'm guessing the $115m-$140m just a tad bit high? 

[YSLDC]

1 hour ago, Wesley said:

That 70M early tracking for The Flash is a joke there is no way this will only open to $5M more than Black Adam when its tracking way over it in multiple trackings from people here. Plus reviews will definitely be better too for it that will take this over 100M for sure. The curiosity factor also will be high for it. 

 

Didn't Black Adam have really poor, Morbius level pre-sales? And then the final push & great walk ups help it?

[vafrow]

14 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Milton, Ontario

 

Sales continue to be slow at my theatre. For morning of, it's at 29 tickets sold, which is 38.2% of Fast X, for a preview number of $2.9M. It's clearly under indexing here compared to the other trackers.

 

Some other quick comparisons of films I have morning of stats

 

0.155x of GOTG3 for $2.7M

2.42x of Dungeons and Dragons for $13.6M

0.09x Super Mario for $2.87M

 

 

It leaves lots of room for walk ups, but I'm not expecting anything too different. I'm in a very young and kid skewing suburb, so, I'm surprised this is performing so poorly here. Spiderverse (which I'll try and create a separate post for) is doing extremely well for example.

 

Little Mermaid, Milton Ontario Final Sales.

Walk ups today have been okay. It went from 29 to 67 over the course of the day.

 

It's closed the gap a touch on its comparables, but, eyeballing it to $3-4M against most comps, rather than the $2-3M.

 

One thing that dawned on me, is that for both this week and next, films that are expecting to gross around $100M are only getting one screen at my theatre. The release calendar is finally such that theatres can't just give out half it's screens to any film that might do decent business.