The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Joyous Legion]

12 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

I don't know where to ask this, but what made Black Adam accelerate pre-sales closer to release? Was it the Henry Cavill hype?

At the end of the day it’s easy to see the “what” but much harder to pin down the “why.” I don’t know that they really accelerated that much in the end relative to what might have been expected, it was just a property with no already known characters and very low initial sales which makes it much easier to make big proportional gains at the end. The Superman credit leaks might have helped a little bit too but I don’t personally think they were a major driver.

[JustLurking]

Rock films are just pretty GA-friendly usually, and probably got a decent chunk of people interest just on that. Which combined with the fact that the film had very low interest on the fanbase side of things makes it a bigger acceleration than it really should be.

[vafrow]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	230	23909	29312	5403	18.43%

 

Total Showings Added Today	88
Total Seats Added Today	6838
Total Seats Sold Today	944

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	137.38		496	3933		0/130	14226/18159	21.66%		6409	84.30%		14.75m
JWD	78.77		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	49.27%		14.18m
BA	210.32		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	120.23%		15.98m
A2	86.17		723	6270		0/296	27849/34119	18.38%		8986	60.13%		14.65m
Wick 4	168.90		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	99.17%		15.03m
GOTG3	75.16		883	7189		0/315	31900/39089	18.39%		8363	64.61%		13.15m
TLM	136.03		435	3972		0/221	24918/28890	13.75%		6561	82.35%		14.01m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       1195/8715  [13.71% sold]
Matinee:    419/2903  [14.43% | 7.75% of all tickets sold]
-----
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.2859x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-2 [17.75m]    
AtSV = 0.71186x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-2 [18.83m]    
AtSV = 1.44902x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-2 [14.16m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

====

 

Now this is more like what I was looking for.  A very nice day locally indeed.  After I posted last night, it occurred to me that Memorial Day locally might be playing a bit more like a Fourth of July Monday in that it in of itself depressed numbers more than I was accounting for.  That plus the Atom deal (we have a lot of qualifiying theaters locally) had to have helped.

 

Helped enough to get it to 16m-17m locally?  Man, I dunno.  It has a large hole to climb out of.  Good news for it, it not only added a shit ton of showings today (which I expected), a couple of the more trafficked theaters haven't expanded yet, which means it could rise in show count even more tomorrow.

 

Beyond that, just have to wait and see.

 

The uptick against GOTG3 is pretty impressive, especially considering that movie was surging at the end. And all of this is happening without the reviews bump and very little promotion. Guardians was on a full court press in the final stretch. Lots of clips were circulating.

 

I don't feel like they're going that hard on this film yet, and, it means that the word of mouth on it will take shape over the weekend. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Do we have a Tuesday numbers thread? I didn't see one and the weekend thread has been moved. Thanks!

[TwoMisfits]

2nd Cinemark set - 16 showings (4 screens) - I think that's a Mermaid match, although since I was on vacation, my memory is a little less sure here.  Still, it's not above Mermaid (yet).

 

So expansion went from 12/9 showings to 18/16 showings.  I expected more, especially with 7pm PLFs sold out Thurs/Fri already, but it's gotten tight since neither theater dropped Mario, GOTG3, Mermaid, or Fast...and they both booked Boogeyman, albeit on a single screen.

 

PS - Mermaid keeps 3 screens at each (12 showings), so that hurt Spidey's expansion...

[TwoMisfits]

Just going to add for TMobile deal effect - looking at my local with PLF (an Atom theater), you can't really get primetime 7pm PLF seats for Spidey in family sizes anymore.  But you can buy your tickets til Sunday and use them whenever, as long as Atom is selling the seats.  Right now, Atom is selling seats for Spidey up to 1 week out on PLF and 2 weeks out normal, so the effect can remain even after the weekend for the BIG movies.

 

TMobile never usually picks the BIG movies for this deal, so it doesn't usually matter...Wick 4 was the closest big movie that had the deal...and that's not quite a supers blockbuster, though it was close...

Edited May 31, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[vafrow]

3 hours ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

At the end of the day it’s easy to see the “what” but much harder to pin down the “why.” I don’t know that they really accelerated that much in the end relative to what might have been expected, it was just a property with no already known characters and very low initial sales which makes it much easier to make big proportional gains at the end. The Superman credit leaks might have helped a little bit too but I don’t personally think they were a major driver.

 

I'd also add that Dwayne Johnson was at peak promotional form. Whatever issues he has with the behind the scenes politicking, when he's engaged on a film tour, he's all in. He was doing fan events, did all the media rounds, was showing up at sporting events. He was relentless on his social media platforms.

 

I also think that era was one of our biggest draughts of a blockbuster movie we've had. There was nothing on the market for big budget action since Bullet Train.

[keysersoze123]

On 5/29/2023 at 10:04 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the Spiderverse MTC1 Friday - 107042/925931 1886447.98 4606 shows

Spider-man across the Spiderverse MTC1 Friday - 140653/1156323 2445864.89 6329 shows +33611

 

Good growth for Friday as well. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Boogeyman	T-2	Jax	5	10	22	22	980	2.24%
		Phx	6	13	26	26	1,090	2.39%
		Ral	7	14	31	31	1,122	2.76%
	Total		18	37	79	79	3,192	2.47%
Spiderverse 2	T-2	Jax	6	67	1,403	1,403	11,294	12.42%
		Phx	6	70	1,482	1,482	11,837	12.52%
		Ral	8	69	1,147	1,147	9,179	12.50%
	Total		20	206	4,032	4,032	32,310	12.48%

 

Hey all!  I've been bogged down with work lately and haven't kept up with box office at all.  I did finally catch up on some things by working through the holiday yesterday so I had time to do a run this morning.

 

Spider-verse 2 T-2 comps

 - Sonic 2 Total - 2.777x (17.36m)

 - Lightyear Total - 3.84x (21.12m)

 - Shazam 2 - 5.64x (19.17m)

 - Ghostbusters Total - 3.58x (16.11m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .632x (11.05m)

 

Boogeyman T-2 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .775x (929k)

 - M3GAN - .361x (992k)

 - Prey for the Devil - 1.053x (695k)

 - The Invitation - 1.179x (914k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Boogeyman	T-1	Jax	5	11	1	23	1,116	2.06%
		Phx	6	16	12	38	1,459	2.60%
		Ral	7	14	20	51	1,122	4.55%
	Total		18	41	33	112	3,697	3.03%
Boogeyman (EA)	T-0	Jax	1	1	3	18	51	35.29%
		Phx	1	1	8	25	123	20.33%
	Total		2	2	11	43	174	24.71%
Spiderverse 2	T-1	Jax	6	84	338	1,741	12,468	13.96%
		Phx	6	88	326	1,808	13,858	13.05%
		Ral	8	70	330	1,477	9,280	15.92%
	Total		20	242	994	5,026	35,606	14.12%

 

Spider-verse 2 T-1 comps

 - Sonic 2 Total - 2.671x (16.69m)

 - Lightyear Total - 3.66x (20.1m)

 - Shazam 2 - 6.04x (20.54m)

 - Ghostbusters Total - 3.48x (15.65m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .722x (12.64m)

 

I'd probably go somewhere around 16.5m at the moment.

 

Boogeyman + EA T-1 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - 1.033x (1.24m)

 - M3GAN - .464x (1.28m)

 - Prey for the Devil - 1.582x (1.043m)

 - The Invitation - 1.476x (1.144m)

 

Maybe around 1.2m preview including EA.

[rehpyc]

A friend that works with one of the major chains has indicated their Thursday sales for Spider-Verse have been trailing Quantumania by more than 30%. Quantumania opened to a 17.5M Thursday.

 

Edit: Trailing Guardians 3 by 25%.

Edited May 31, 2023 by rehpyc

[M37]

Just want to note how HOT the pace is for SV. Now these numbers are somewhat inflated by post-holiday catch-up and T-Moble deal, but also no review bump. The increase in total sales for T-3 to T-2 was +17-22% across all tracking samples.

 

For comparison, JWD was only +12-16% for all but one market, and Fast X was a bit more spread at +14-21% in all but one market. GOTG3, (which isn't a good comp given the higher early prebuys) was +9.5-14%

 

53 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the Spiderverse MTC1 Friday - 140653/1156323 2445864.89 6329 shows +33611

 

Good growth for Friday as well. 

+33% in one day? Yeah, this is blowing up ... think that 250K mark you put out for Fri presales by Thursday night might just happen. Getting to TFri at 2x or more of Thursday puts the 7x+ IM in play. Unfortunately, those lowball trades forecasts and packed release schedule are liming screens and shows, and I think theaters are going to be caught off guard, not enough capacity, hopefully they can adjust

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Just going to add for TMobile deal effect - looking at my local with PLF (an Atom theater), you can't really get primetime 7pm PLF seats for Spidey in family sizes anymore.  But you can buy your tickets til Sunday and use them whenever, as long as Atom is selling the seats.  Right now, Atom is selling seats for Spidey up to 1 week out on PLF and 2 weeks out normal, so the effect can remain even after the weekend for the BIG movies.

 

TMobile never usually picks the BIG movies for this deal, so it doesn't usually matter...Wick 4 was the closest big movie that had the deal...and that's not quite a supers blockbuster, though it was close...

NWH did have it I thought

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

NWH did have it I thought

Also bats did. But it was specific day/show. I was able to see it for early tuesday imax shows with the coupon. 

[M37]

9 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

A friend that works with one of the major chains has indicated their Thursday sales for Spider-Verse have been trailing Quantumania by more than 30%. Quantumania opened to a 17.5M Thursday.

That actually matches the data we have here fairly closely. But it’s not about where it’s at, but where it’s going. The pace of sales is on a very different scale 

 

Tell your friend that they should expect SV to at least catch up to AMWQ and GOTG3 by the time the dust settles on Thursday (and report back on the result if you can!)

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

That actually matches the data we have here fairly closely. But it’s not about where it’s at, but where it’s going. The pace of sales is on a very different scale 

 

Tell your friend that they should expect SV to at least catch up to AMWQ and GOTG3 by the time the dust settles on Thursday (and report back on the result if you can!)

Makes sense its trailing. Ant 3 was at just below 212K T-2 and Guardians was at just above 189K. But it cannot be MTC1 as Guardians is not trailing by 25%. Of course its possible Spiderverse has lot more family tickets than MCU movie and so ATP could be lower. We may have to discount for that. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Incredible day even with Atom deal factored in. Am back to thinking 350-360k with 40k-150k final day.

[M37]

Its both amazing and frustrating to me that a group of volunteer internet strangers can consistently beat forecasts by “the trades” - ie the people who get paid to be accurate (excluding @Shawn & co, who are mostly on point). Transformers and Spidey are being forecasted in nearly the same range, when there could be as much as a 3x discrepancy!

 

I know there are complicating factors with studio relationships, film contracts and such, but the market inefficiency in allocating a fixed resource (screens) based on inaccurate forecasts (both too high and too low) is just … baffling. How much money is being left on the table by being reactive rather than proactive?

[JpTransformers]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

Its both amazing and frustrating to me that a group of volunteer internet strangers can consistently beat forecasts by “the trades” - ie the people who get paid to be accurate (excluding @Shawn & co, who are mostly on point). Transformers and Spidey are being forecasted in nearly the same range, when there could be as much as a 3x discrepancy!

 

I know there are complicating factors with studio relationships, film contracts and such, but the market inefficiency in allocating a fixed resource (screens) based on inaccurate forecasts (both too high and too low) is just … baffling. How much money is being left on the table by being reactive rather than proactive?

3x discrepancy?

[M37]

Just now, JpTransformers said:

3x discrepancy?

SV opening to like $127M and TF to like $42M (127/42 = 3x), despite their trades forecasts being something like $78 and $80-$90

 

How many theaters are saving screen space for TF next week at expense of loading up on SV based on those (incorrect) expectations? 

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, JpTransformers said:

3x discrepancy?

Something like 45/135