The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

So I've been thinking about this comment for a little while, and I was going to respond, but realizing it could be read a couple of different ways. Are you just noting the higher variance in Day 1/2/3 sales - so as not to focus on pinpoint comps - or something else, with the pattern of lower initial comps/higher finish?

Generally talking about first day PS. The idea is just that if a movie is say 2x day 1 PS of another, the final ratio generally tends to be less than 2x.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Generally talking about first day PS. The idea is just that if a movie is say 2x day 1 PS of another, the final ratio generally tends to be less than 2x.

That just seems like a coincidence in that we had a sequence of mcu films less frontloaded than the previous ones though, if MoM came in after Thor and BP2 that would have been reversed for instance and there isn't really any guarantee that AM will converge upwards (I do think it will compared to current comps but I'm not really convinced it will converge to mid 20s like some are saying here).

[Legion Again]

I mean, tending to overperform the straight comp vs larger starts and underperform the straight comp vs lower starts is like presales 101 right. Final ratio moves toward 1x relative to D1 ratio.

 

It’s not coincidence at all @JustLurking — the coincidence is that the last 5 mcu has been getting smaller and smaller (NWH 18 start ->DS2 9 -> Thor 5.5 ->BP 4.3 -> QM 3.7) but if you permuted the order in time you’d have observed the exact same pattern when ordered by size still.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Quoted post ~14 hrs for MTC2 (post time) or did run finish earlier?

That was overnight on 16th. This was done over the day. Finished in the evening. Its around the ballpark data. It should not matter that much over long term. Soon daily pace will drop down to low levels until final push. 

[Legion Again]

42 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

NWH 18 start ->DS2 9 -> Thor 5.5 ->BP 4.3 -> QM 3.7

Btw, rip Gotg3 amirite 

[M37]

11 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Generally talking about first day PS. The idea is just that if a movie is say 2x day 1 PS of another, the final ratio generally tends to be less than 2x.

 

6 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

That just seems like a coincidence in that we had a sequence of mcu films less frontloaded than the previous ones though, if MoM came in after Thor and BP2 that would have been reversed for instance and there isn't really any guarantee that AM will converge upwards (I do think it will compared to current comps but I'm not really convinced it will converge to mid 20s like some are saying here).

 

6 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

I mean, tending to overperform the straight comp vs larger starts and underperform the straight comp vs lower starts is like presales 101 right.

 

It’s not coincidence at all @JustLurking — the coincidence is that the last 5 mcu has been getting smaller and smaller (NWH 18 start ->DS2 9 -> Thor 5.5 ->BP 4.3 -> QM 3.7) but if you flipped around the order in time you’d have observed the exact same pattern when ordered by size still.

 

The point @JustLurking made is what I was getting at: I thought the sequence was giving an impression of a pattern/truth that may not be have quite as simple as its being made out to be

But what @Favorite Fearless Legion said is correct, the value rather than order is relevant, so at least now I understand where those low to mid $20M projections are coming from

... except it mostly breaks down with Thor and BPWF, as they were more $$ apart on their opening day than they were by end of opening Thursday!

 

Just think there's a decent chance AMWQ may prove to be more of a smaller version of MoM than falling on a trendline that includes Thor and especially BPWF (the inherent uncertainty of extrapolating from so few, potentially skewed, data points)

[Porthos]

On 1/17/2023 at 11:39 PM, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	231	29564	32365	2801	8.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

782

 

Day 2 Comps

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	37.84		654	7403		0/329	33513/40916	18.09%		21117	13.26%		13.62m
TG:M	146.73		393	1909		0/257	34292/36201	5.27%		11474	24.41%		28.99m
L&T	59.29		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	16.51%		17.19m
BP2	75.24		469	3723		0/292	32828/36551	10.19%		16800	16.67%		21.07m
A2	165.84		369	1689		0/142	19649/21338	7.92%		8986	31.17%		28.19m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       504/12953  [3.89% sold]
Matinee:       58/1800  [3.22% | 2.07% of all tickets sold]
3D:             258/6479  [3.98% | 9.21% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Managed to come in over everyone's expectations (except for Jat's 1k 'possible' number — but imma ignoring that). 👍

 

So... Yeah. Was more than some initial sales that hadn't yet been burned off.  Makes me wonder what Day 1 "would" have been with a more normal start time in the morning.

 

Now we see how long it takes to stabilize.

 

(as a house keeping note, will shift over to T-x on Friday, probably — not that I'll have many comps to use)

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	231	29307	32365	3058	9.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

257

 

Day 3 Comps

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	39.09		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	14.48%		14.07m
TG:M	133.01		390	2299		0/257	33923/36222	6.35%		11474	26.65%		26.28m
L&T	60.43		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	18.03%		17.53m
BP2	76.13		294	4017		0/292	32534/36551	10.99%		16800	18.20%		21.32m
A2	164.32		172	1861		0/142	19477/21338	8.72%		8986	34.03%		27.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        561/12953  [4.33% sold]
Matinee:        72/1800  [4.00% | 2.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:              294/6479  [4.54% | 9.61% of all tickets sold]

[romeross]

13 hours ago, el sid said:

Missing, counted today for Friday:
Up 45% since Monday. That sounds better than it is. For two days and on a rather low level, that's not really good.
Comps (both counted on Wednesday for Friday): Crawdads (17.3M) had 212 sold tickets,
and The Invitation (6.8M) had 167 sold tickets.
Tomorrow I have more comps.

Not bad. Hope for 7 million or more

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 1/18/2023 at 8:46 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-15	Jax	5	15	0	7	1,926	0.36%
		Phx	5	14	1	8	1,514	0.53%
		Ral	7	21	3	13	1,839	0.71%
	Total		17	50	4	28	5,279	0.53%
Ant-Man 3	T-29	Jax	6	91	29	660	15,860	4.16%
		Phx	6	85	68	693	15,027	4.61%
		Ral	7	86	23	639	11,228	5.69%
	Total		19	262	120	1,992	42,115	4.73%
Brady (1/28)	T-10	Jax	2	2	5	16	365	4.38%
	Total		2	2	5	16	365	4.38%
Brady (1/31)	T-13	Jax	3	3	1	9	446	2.02%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	139	0.00%
	Total		5	5	1	9	691	1.30%
Brady (2/1)	T-14	Jax	3	3	0	0	446	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	73	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	0	625	0.00%
Infinity Pool	T-8	Jax	4	5	11	11	445	2.47%
		Phx	5	6	2	2	517	0.39%
		Ral	4	5	8	8	496	1.61%
	Total		13	16	21	21	1,458	1.44%
Knock at Cabin	T-15	Jax	5	16	2	34	2,739	1.24%
		Phx	4	10	1	20	1,554	1.29%
		Ral	6	16	0	26	2,470	1.05%
	Total		15	42	3	80	6,763	1.18%
Left Behind	T-8	Jax	4	4	7	47	453	10.38%
		Phx	5	5	7	51	830	6.14%
		Ral	5	5	0	53	530	10.00%
	Total		14	14	14	151	1,813	8.33%
Missing	T-1	Jax	5	21	10	35	1,878	1.86%
		Phx	5	13	3	21	2,067	1.02%
		Ral	3	8	5	23	809	2.84%
	Total		13	42	18	79	4,754	1.66%
Slime	T-1	Jax	5	12	19	55	1,142	4.82%
		Phx	6	10	5	30	1,222	2.45%
		Ral	6	11	3	32	1,593	2.01%
	Total		17	33	27	117	3,957	2.96%

 

Missing T-1 comps

 - Crawdads - .112x (223k)

 - Bullet Train - .107x (357k)

 - Lost City - .164x (409k)

 - Old - .391x (587k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.68x (671k)

 

Slime T-1 comps

 - JJK - .078x (224k)

 - DBZ - .081x (347k)

 - One Piece - .154x (261k)

 

Left Behind T-8 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - .411x (318k)

 

Infinity Pool T-8 comps

 - The Night House - 1.75x (455k)

 - Black Phone - .198x (515k)

 

80 for Brady T-15 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.33x (1.17m)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-15 comps

 - Nope - .264x (1.69m)

 - M3GAN - 2.759x (7.59m)

 - Black Phone - 1.143x (2.97m)

 - Halloween Ends - .482x (2.6m)

 

 

Ant-Man 3 T-29 comps

 - Dr Strange 2 - .404x (14.53m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-14	Jax	5	15	3	10	1,926	0.52%
		Phx	5	14	1	9	1,514	0.59%
		Ral	7	21	4	17	1,839	0.92%
	Total		17	50	8	36	5,279	0.68%
Ant-Man 3	T-28	Jax	6	91	75	735	15,860	4.63%
		Phx	6	85	96	789	15,027	5.25%
		Ral	8	101	72	711	13,556	5.24%
	Total		20	277	243	2,235	44,443	5.03%
Brady (1/28)	T-9	Jax	2	2	0	16	365	4.38%
	Total		2	2	0	16	365	4.38%
Brady (1/31)	T-12	Jax	3	3	0	9	446	2.02%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	139	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	9	691	1.30%
Brady (2/1)	T-13	Jax	3	3	0	0	446	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	73	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	0	625	0.00%
Infinity Pool	T-7	Jax	4	5	3	14	445	3.15%
		Phx	5	6	0	2	517	0.39%
		Ral	4	5	1	9	496	1.81%
	Total		13	16	4	25	1,458	1.71%
Knock at Cabin	T-14	Jax	5	16	0	34	2,739	1.24%
		Phx	4	10	0	20	1,554	1.29%
		Ral	6	16	0	26	2,470	1.05%
	Total		15	42	0	80	6,763	1.18%
Left Behind	T-7	Jax	4	4	9	56	453	12.36%
		Phx	5	5	5	56	830	6.75%
		Ral	5	5	4	57	530	10.75%
	Total		14	14	18	169	1,813	9.32%
Missing	T-0	Jax	5	22	18	53	1,915	2.77%
		Phx	6	16	14	35	2,241	1.56%
		Ral	5	14	11	34	2,142	1.59%
	Total		16	52	43	122	6,298	1.94%
Slime	T-0	Jax	5	12	6	61	1,142	5.34%
		Phx	6	10	3	33	1,222	2.70%
		Ral	6	11	10	42	1,593	2.64%
	Total		17	33	19	136	3,957	3.44%

 

Missing T-0 comps

 - Crawdads - .126x (253k)

 - Bullet Train - .117x (391k)

 - Lost City - .178x (445k)

 - Old - .372x (558k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.54x (616k)

 

Slime T-0 comps

 - JJK - .078x (224k)

 - DBZ - .074x (319k)

 - One Piece - .146x (248k)

 

Left Behind T-7 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - missed

 

Infinity Pool T-7 comps

 - The Night House - 2.083x (542k)

 - Black Phone - .212x (551k)

 

80 for Brady T-14 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.273x (1.64m)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-14 comps

 - Nope - .248x (1.59m)

 - M3GAN - 2.667x (7.33m)

 - Black Phone - 1.096x (2.85m)

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 

Ant-Man 3 T-27 comps

 - Dr Strange 2 - .372x (13.4m)

[Legion Again]

On 1/12/2023 at 1:18 AM, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Might as well cross post I guess:

Initial targets: Would like to see 16+ previews, so about evenly between BP and SC.    
 

Approx 24 hr th:final th for recent movies:

BW 1.1:13.2, 12x, 27 days (mtc varying curfews, PA, missing some Canada)

SC .82:9.1*, 11x, 17 days (*storm adjusted est, delta)

Et 1.33:9.5, 7.1x, 24 days (horrible reception)

BPWF 4.1:28, 6.8x, 40 days

A2 2:17, 8.5x, 24 days

Essentially no correlation with days to ratio. Reasonable relationship between start and ratio

  Reveal hidden contents

(especially excluding BW which was inflated by mtc capacity stuff and et deflated by reception):

 

 

 

Giving:

final=start+added=start+start*added/start~=s+s(9.43-1.815 log_2 (s))

which gives the following table:

Th final	Expected start	Ratio
12	1.21	9.917355372
13	1.35	9.62962963
14	1.49	9.395973154
15	1.64	9.146341463
16	1.8	8.888888889
17	1.96	8.673469388
18	2.13	8.450704225
19	2.3	8.260869565
20	2.485	8.048289738
21	2.67	7.865168539

 

 

So I will be looking for ~1.8M start — or ~90% A2, 44% BP2, 2.2x SC

 

You can use expected ratio vs actual ratio for any of those 5 comps to adjust the raw 24hr comp nums

Well, with the last update from keyser I think we have about as good data for est first 24 hr as we’re ever gonna get, and it came out to ~3.7. Plugging into the handy dandy pre-processed formula, we get — 25.9M. Thank you everyone, congrats Paul Rudd on a higher start than BP1, you can all relax and go home now 

 

…

 

…

 

…

 

Spoiler

I mean look, I did all this pre-processing, it’d be a shame to just let it go to waste, right?

Spoiler

Although, a so called “real analyst” might point out that with a start more than twice what I was aiming for, it might be more appropriate to rerun the whole thing with some more appropriate comps, so….

 

fiiiiiiiiiiine

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 hours ago, JustLurking said:

That just seems like a coincidence in that we had a sequence of mcu films less frontloaded than the previous ones though, if MoM came in after Thor and BP2 that would have been reversed for instance and there isn't really any guarantee that AM will converge upwards (I do think it will compared to current comps but I'm not really convinced it will converge to mid 20s like some are saying here).

Nothing to do with MCU specifically. This is something that holds true, for the most part, for any film.

[Legion Again]

Tl;dr at bottom

 

As a reminder, some movies from last time (a few starts are updated slightly to more refined ests):

Spoiler

 

Movie	Start	Final	Ratio
SC	0.82	9.1	11.09756098
BW	1.1	13.2	12
Et	1.33	9.5	7.142857143
A2	2	17	8.5
BP2	4.3	28	6.511627907

And the main movies which we might want to additionally rope in are Thor and DS2, but just for amusement/thoroughness let’s see how NWH looks out before throwing it away. Going to include what the old formula would suggest from these starts to get a quick sense of how much it breaks down for out of bounds values:

Spoiler

Movie	Start	Final	Old formula proj	Error
Thor	5.55	29	32.98051256	-12.07%
DS2	8.8	36	41.67179372	-13.61%
NWH	17.9	50.5	51.48351203	-1.91%

*insert not great not terrible here*
okay, but for curiosity — how tightly did it fit the original 5 anyway  🤔

Spoiler

 

Movie	Start	Final	Old formula proj	Error
SC	0.82	9.1	8.978706519	1.35%
BW	1.1	13.2	11.19847421	17.87%
Et	1.33	9.5	12.87873761	-26.24%
A2	2	17	17.23	-1.33%
BP2	4.3	28	28.42570454	-1.50%

 

 

Avg abs error of ~9.2 for the big 3 vs 9.65 for the small medium stuff, with nothing as bad as the 2 bad smalls. Now of course we have a clear explanation for BW, which is why I’m going to take it out eventually — there was capacity ceilings/lingering covid regulations when PS began, and they were lifted before actual previews (Canada wasn’t even fully lifted but it probably had the final/d1 even more inflated by the restriction easing timing than usa). As for Eternals, the horrible reception was a big part of the problem, especially as compared to expectations when PS started. It is interesting, though at such a small sample can’t really call it more than that, that the next two underperformers were the B+s, though not doing quite as poorly as the flat B. Notably DS2 and Thor missed the old formula by pretty similar margins despite the “story event fan base factor” and this does not surprise me too much. Which is not to say that such considerations aren’t real, or don’t have a real effect in the ratio. It is just to say that the effect is mediated in large part by the size of the D1 gross! DS2 D1 was bigger than if it wasn’t a story event, and so based on d1 size we predict a lower ratio than if it wasn’t, and we indeed get a lower ratio than if it wasn’t. And honestly fairly eyebrow raising how the 4 A or higher movies here fit a remarkably tight trend despite spanning from a .82 start to 17.9M — a 22x difference in size.  
 

So, one thing you could do would be look at the relationship for just the A(+)movies — this is essentially identical to the pre-processed one and will send 3.7 to ~25.5M or so. The you could say “in case of B+ish, 12% lower” (22.5) and if you think it’s about 50/50 to be A or B+ split the difference (24ish). However let’s try including Thor and DS2 anyway and figuring that it’ll capture some degree of variation across possible receptions for us (the strong reception case will probably be a smidge, some couple % points, above the primary result then).
 

Anyway here’s the trend for all 8:

Spoiler

8 excluding the 2 outliers vis a vis the relationship (BW and et):

Spoiler

 

Further excluding the two largest outliers in start size (sc and NWH):

Spoiler

And only A(+)s:

Spoiler

Boy look at that R! N=4 is only N=4 but still kind of spooky for ~independent natural phenomenon spanning movies in such different circumstances over ~15 months.

Anyway, personally I prefer the last of these, which would suggest from 3.7M,  25.8M.  
 

But for sake of conservatism/using more data points including Thor and DS2, could use the 2nd one which suggest 25.1M. That would be a ratio of 6.77, so more like geomean BP2 and Et than BP2 and A2.
Here’s how that performs retrospectively:

Spoiler

 

 

Movie	Start	Final	Proj new	Actual/proj
SC	0.82	9.1	8.978757309	101.35%
BW	1.1	13.2	11.14959256	118.39%
Et	1.33	9.5	12.78138194	74.33%
A2	2	17	16.96	100.24%
BP2	4.3	28	27.34659654	102.39%
Thor	5.55	29	31.37317031	92.44%
DS2	8.8	36	38.50874046	93.49%
NWH	17.9	50.5	43.12424413	117.10%

 

I think there’s very little value in the BW and Et comps, and my official forecasts off 24h data is:

If good reception: 80% chance 22-28.5 (point forecast 25)

If more DS2/Thor reception: 80% chance 19.5-25 (point forecast 22)

 

TL;dr The relationship actually seems about as valid for 3.7 as for 1.8 so I didn’t really change the number much 😛    
 

Still on the over for 25 unless reception is bad, in which case knock 10%ish

Edited January 19, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[TwoMisfits]

9 hours ago, JustLurking said:

That just seems like a coincidence in that we had a sequence of mcu films less frontloaded than the previous ones though, if MoM came in after Thor and BP2 that would have been reversed for instance and there isn't really any guarantee that AM will converge upwards (I do think it will compared to current comps but I'm not really convinced it will converge to mid 20s like some are saying here).

 

Neither am I - thus, why I mentioned why I saw $16M...if anything, I see more front-loading for less diverse skewing MCU movies, not less, so Thor and Dr Strange 2 (with appropriate ticket inflation b/c there's been some more) are my targets...

 

WF2 just has a more diverse demo for MCU, and that demo does buy later, so taking that trend for this movie - I don't think it works...

Edited January 19, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[M37]

19 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Well, with the last update from keyser I think we have about as good data for est first 24 hr as we’re ever gonna get, and it came out to ~3.7. Plugging into the handy dandy pre-processed formula, we get — 25.9M. Thank you everyone, congrats Paul Rudd on a higher start than BP1, you can all relax and go home now 

 

…

 

…

 

…

 

  Reveal hidden contents

I mean look, I did all this pre-processing, it’d be a shame to just let it go to waste, right?

  Reveal hidden contents

Although, a so called “real analyst” might point out that with a start more than twice what I was aiming for, it might be more appropriate to rerun the whole thing with some more appropriate comps, so….

 

fiiiiiiiiiiine

 

 

We’re running into the problem again of being caught in the middle, grey zone between the lows and the highs, with the added complication that the closest starting value - BPWF - is IMO probably an outlier among the broader trendline, in this case causing an upward weight in final result 

 

I’ll just add this: I didn’t totally pluck the 60% Thor/75% BPWF ratios out of thin air, values AMWQ maintained through day 3 update in Sacto 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Neither am I - thus, why I mentioned why I saw $16M...if anything, I see more front-loading for less diverse skewing MCU movies, not less, so Thor and Dr Strange 2 (with appropriate ticket inflation b/c there's been some more) are my targets...

 

WF2 just has a more diverse demo for MCU, and that demo does buy later, so taking that trend for this movie - I don't think it works...

Looking at NWH, MoM, Thor.. (using Deadline OD PostTrak numbers as source)

 

Thor was the whitest audience (39%), but had highest final/D1 ratio.

DS2 was the second-whitest (35%), and had second-highest final/D1 ratio.

NWH was the least white (33%) and had the lowest final/D1 ratio. 

 

The trend you've proposed doesn't really hold for the movies other than WF (and if it has an effect, definitely much less than size of start). 

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Looking at NWH, MoM, Thor.. (using Deadline OD PostTrak numbers as source)

 

Thor was the whitest audience (39%), but had highest final/D1 ratio.

DS2 was the second-whitest (35%), and had second-highest final/D1 ratio.

NWH was the least white (33%) and had the lowest final/D1 ratio. 

 

The trend you've proposed doesn't really hold for the movies other than WF (and if it has an effect, definitely much less than size of start). 

 

Okay, I won't press...but I remember these same arguments for Avatar's initial presale set (which got folks sky rocketing for OW predictions) and then the final $17M Thursday...

 

So, I'm not sure it's gonna "disappoint" vs "just reflect reality" when it doesn't come in at, what, $25M for opening Thursday?  That's the thought from these 1st 3 days?  Maybe you're right...

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Okay, I won't press...but I remember these same arguments for Avatar's initial presale set (which got folks sky rocketing for OW predictions) and then the final $17M Thursday...

 

So, I'm not sure it's gonna "disappoint" vs "just reflect reality" when it doesn't come in at, what, $25M for opening Thursday?  That's the thought from these 1st 3 days?  Maybe you're right...

 

I'm still at around 23 (Legion's correlation is convincing, but knocking a little due to gut). But I definitely wasn't arguing for anything huge off of A2's first day, maybe someone else was. If anything A2 makes the 16 you've suggested implausible, Ant-Man has already started off way higher and A2 itself did 17 with a bad final week. By that I don't mean to use A2 as a straight comp, but in order to do 16, Quantumania would have to actually do less raw tickets than A2 from here on out, which does not pass the smell test whatsoever for me. 

Edited January 19, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[M37]

Just want to say: I do think it speaks to the quality of the tracking and analysis in this thread that we’re haggling over at most a +/-20% discrepancy after just 2 days of sales and 4 weeks before release, considering professional forecasting (esp if you include Deadline’s reporting in that umbrella) often has a ~10% range the day before opening 

 

[Legion Again]

16 is impossible. I would bet like $5k for a $10 return. 

[Tinalera]

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 Fri Feb 17 (taken Jan 19)

Toronto Ontario 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	27	1279	5867	7146	0.1789
	Fri	4	36	729	8899	9268	0.0786