New Year Weekend Thread (31 Dec - 2 Jan)

[Joyous Legion]

Year to year comparisons are a little sketchy what with Jan-May being basically dead. Q4 vs Q4 is not so bad. 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

 

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Spidey Freak said:

Yeah, no way was 100M a bigger priority for Encanto than getting more hits and subscribes for Disney Plus for Christmas/NY. That's what's really going to matter for their Q4 stakeholder report.

I know others have already responded. But I can’t see Encanto being of interest to anyone who doesn’t already have Disney+. 

[Borobudur]

Sing 2 is constantly doing slightly more than half of Sing1, how long is its theater exclusive run?  I remember even F9 got only 35 days only. 

[Mau]

1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

how many families didn’t go and see it over Xmas because they knew they were getting it for free FOR XMAS. 

 

That’s my biggest issue with it. 

I don’t buy that anybody at this point who isn’t already a subscriber has subscribed for Encanto. They are throwing money away.  Number of viewers on a service people are already subbed to doesn’t mean anything. 

I have heard some people in latin america getting subscribed bc of this movie, but I dont expect it to make a huge impact in subs here.

Edited January 1, 2022 by Mau

[Tokugennumataka]

Wknd 3 - 52M (-39%) - 609M

Wkd 3 - 20M (-77%) - 629M

Wknd 4 - 30M (-42%) - 659M

Wkd 4 - 9.5M (-53%) - 669M

Wknd 5 - 19M (-37%) - 688M

Wkd 5 - 9M (-5%) - 697M

Wknd 6 - 10M (-48%) - 707M

Wkd 6 - 4M (-57%) - 711M

Wknd 7 - 7M (-30%) - 718M

Wknd 8 - 5M (-29%) - 726M

Wknd 9 - 3M (-40%) - 732M

Wknd 10 - 2.5M (-17%) - 734.5M

Final - 743M

Edited January 1, 2022 by Tokugennumataka

[narniadis]

When it comes to the Disney subs, the thing to watch will be what they choose to push and promote next fall. Many forget that they had a massive push for a 3 year membership that was gangbusters pricewise (my family did that). They will want to keep the "non-paying" subs next fall and things like Encanto are ways they will do it. 

 

While we saw it in theaters the week before Christmas, my kids have watched it another half-dozen times or so in the last week. There is definitely an audience for such that isn't going to reflect well in general within the movie-nerd continuum. 

[narniadis]

20 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Sing 2 is constantly doing slightly more than half of Sing1, how long is its theater exclusive run?  I remember even F9 got only 35 days only. 

If it plays out like the Summer films did (Quiet Place / F9) that ended up on the PVOD or Paramount+ it will be fine-ish. That was right around the 45 day mark for QP2 and even F9 didn't lose much in a noticeable way. 

Biggest issue $ wise will be if Universal dumps it for free on Peacock. 

[ThomasNicole]

3 hours ago, wildphantom said:

Still amazes me Disney threw away getting over $100 million for Encanto. 
 

Putting it on Disney+ today, rather than Xmas Eve, would have made way more sense in my eyes. All those sweet Xmas weekdays, wasted. 

The movie is explodind on streaming, the soundtrack is topping the charts, social media is huge about this.

 

I honestly don't think they care, and they shouldn't really, is way better to have a huge hit on streaming than getting 10-15M more on box office.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Matrix 4 is apparently dropping 72 percent this weekend.

[ThomasNicole]

LOL at this "Encanto isn't bringing aditional people to D+ so they're Dumb" argument.

 

Streaming platforms is not only about getting new subscribers, is also about keeping the people who are subscribed already, and make them happy.

 

D+ are even losing people in some countries because of lack of content. Now they have a movie that wasn't that big on theaters but is becoming massive on streaming, this helps them to keep the platform relevant and to keep the customers happy about getting content. And for a movie like Encanto, being so big on streaming helps them to sell the soundtrack and merchandising.

 

This is way more valuable than losing 10M on box office. Like most movies this year, this will lose money anyway, better for them to make it big in other ways.

Edited January 1, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[ThomasNicole]

Looks good for NWH, +700M is probably happening. 

 

This one i truly hope it keeps theatrical exclusive until February at least, because this one is actually making significative money.

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

LOL at this "Encanto isn't bringing aditional people to D+ so they're Dumb" argument.

 

Streaming platforms is not only about getting new subscribers, is also about keeping the people who are subscribed already, and make them happy.

 

D+ are even losing people in some countries because of lack of content. Now they have a movie that wasn't that big on theaters but is becoming massive on streaming, this helps them to keep the platform relevant and to keep the customers happy about getting content. And for a movie like Encanto, being so big on streaming helps them to sell the soundtrack and merchandising.

 

This is way more valuable than losing 10M on box office.

Yup, its the business side that while I disagree, I can also totally understand the why. And frankly, it also shows that Disney didn't expect the film to be as "big" as it had been. 

[Krissykins]

12 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

The movie is explodind on streaming, the soundtrack is topping the charts, social media is huge about this.

 

I honestly don't think they care, and they shouldn't really, is way better to have a huge hit on streaming than getting 10-15M more on box office.

… it is? 

 I honestly haven’t heard or seen a thing. I did see one bus ad when I was in London. So they’re definitely spending more marketing money on a new outdoor campaign for the streaming release.
 

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

LOL at this "Encanto isn't bringing aditional people to D+ so they're Dumb" argument.

 

Streaming platforms is not only about getting new subscribers, is also about keeping the people who are subscribed already, and make them happy.

 

D+ are even losing people in some countries because of lack of content. Now they have a movie that wasn't that big on theaters but is becoming massive on streaming, this helps them to keep the platform relevant and to keep the customers happy about getting content. And for a movie like Encanto, being so big on streaming helps them to sell the soundtrack and merchandising.

 

This is way more valuable than losing 10M on box office. Like most movies this year, this will lose money anyway, better for them to make it big in other ways.

 

Just because it’ll help retain subscribers, doesn’t mean we’re wrong in pointing out that the vast majority interested in Encanto are already subscribed. Therefore they ain’t new. 

[XXR & Friends]

15.5-21.5-16 for 53M sounds about right 

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, narniadis said:

Yup, its the business side that while I disagree, I can also totally understand the why. And frankly, it also shows that Disney didn't expect the film to be as "big" as it had been. 

Exactly, i'm also sad seeing many movies depending on VOD or streaming to find significative audience, i would prefer to see them being big on theaters, but it is what it is, at least now the movie is relevant, something that didn't happen last month on theaters.

[wildphantom]

23 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

LOL at this "Encanto isn't bringing aditional people to D+ so they're Dumb" argument.

 

Streaming platforms is not only about getting new subscribers, is also about keeping the people who are subscribed already, and make them happy.

 

D+ are even losing people in some countries because of lack of content. Now they have a movie that wasn't that big on theaters but is becoming massive on streaming, this helps them to keep the platform relevant and to keep the customers happy about getting content. And for a movie like Encanto, being so big on streaming helps them to sell the soundtrack and merchandising.

 

This is way more valuable than losing 10M on box office. Like most movies this year, this will lose money anyway, better for them to make it big in other ways.

 

I can only base what I say on facts. 
 

There’s no evidence that Encanto has increased subscribers. There’s evidence of its immediate impact on the box office. 
 

There’s evidence that putting it on a streaming service people are already paying for might lose you money you might have made with other pay windows. 
 

There’s evidence that international box office takes a hit because they also got it on Xmas eve for free. 
 

There’s evidence that having a soundtrack topping streaming charts doesn’t mean jack as, again, it’s people listening to songs on something they’ve already paid for. 
 

The jury is very much still out on these movies being put out for free to everybody being a good money maker.  Every point you make I just see as them throwing millions of dollars away for nothing. 

Edited January 1, 2022 by wildphantom

[Eric is Quiet]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

… it is? 

 I honestly haven’t heard or seen a thing. I did see one bus ad when I was in London. So they’re definitely spending more marketing money on a new outdoor campaign for the streaming release.

To be fair, it kind of depends on the demos you follow. I follow a lot of Animation Twitter folks, and I've seen a ton of fanart and people talking about the movie's story and characters and messages in the past couple days way more than I ever saw it during Thanksgiving. Obviously this stuff is really subjective and varies from people's timelines and feeds, but when you also look at Spotify charts and YouTube Music trends, it seems fairly legit to me folks are buzzing way more after its Disney+ release.

[wildphantom]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Exactly, i'm also sad seeing many movies depending on VOD or streaming to find significative audience, i would prefer to see them being big on theaters, but it is what it is, at least now the movie is relevant, something that didn't happen last month on theaters.

Again, I don’t see the evidence. People watching it for free makes the audience who won’t pay somehow significant? Surely you’re better off having your audience pay for your content for a period of time, before you gift wrap it for them for absolutely nothing?

 

That’s our point. There are revenue streams they’re blindsiding, and for what? They don’t need to do it. 
 

we all saw their subscription numbers last quarter….

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

… it is? 

 I honestly haven’t heard or seen a thing. I did see one bus ad when I was in London. So they’re definitely spending more marketing money on a new outdoor campaign for the streaming release.
 

 

Just because it’ll help retain subscribers, doesn’t mean we’re wrong in pointing out that the vast majority interested in Encanto are already subscribed. Therefore they ain’t new. 

Yes, it is. The soundtrack is currently #1 on Apple Music, the song We Don't Talk About Bruno is top 5 on Spotify, the movie is currently viral on TikTok and Twitter, and obviously, views on D+ are massive, all after the streaming release.

 

And i didn't said anyone is wrong for pointing that the movie isn't bringing aditional subscribers. I said this isn't the only thing that matters because they also need to keep their customers happy and they need more content to stream, and now they have a huge hit for it, so yeah, saying it's a "dumb decision" to put it on streaming just because it's not bringing aditional people doesn't make any sense, it's choosing just one point of the whole.