FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE SECRETS OF DUMBLEDORE WEEKEND THREAD | Read the first post for the rules

[vafrow]

8 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Things are not going back to the way they were before Covid.  It accelrated a move by many people toward streaming that is permanent.

 

There's been far too much writing off the future of theatres, when there's still so many factors to play out. 

 

For all the issues stopping people from going to see a movie these days (covid, inflation, etc), people still like to go out and be around people and theatres are still one of the cheapest nights out. It's less susceptible to inflation compared to a restaurant for example. Far cheaper than any form of live entertainment. 

 

I don't think anyone knows what the new normal will look like, but, the industry will need to figure it out. 

[dudalb]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

There's been far too much writing off the future of theatres, when there's still so many factors to play out. 

 

For all the issues stopping people from going to see a movie these days (covid, inflation, etc), people still like to go out and be around people and theatres are still one of the cheapest nights out. It's less susceptible to inflation compared to a restaurant for example. Far cheaper than any form of live entertainment. 

 

I don't think anyone knows what the new normal will look like, but, the industry will need to figure it out. 

I am not saying that theaters are going to vanish, but that streaming is going to take a bite out of theatrical income.

This would have happened anyway, but Covid sped up the process.

I also think people are going to be more selective about the movies they see due to inflation.

[YM!]

30 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I dunno about Top Gun.

 

How many sequels or even reboots from the 80's have been successful?

If a nostalgia fest Ghostbusters can do 100m a few months ago, I have no reason why Top Gun Maverick won’t.

[ViewerAnon]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

The top 5 IP's that guarantee 100m OW...

 

MCU
Jurassic World
Avatar
Batman
Minions?

Top 5 IP's that need to recover..

 

Harry Potter
Star Wars/Pixar
DCEU
Fast & Furious
Transformers

 

I'm home alone and bored and none of this matters but I just can't help myself:

 

MCU: 5 of the last 10 MCU movies didn't hit $100M OW (and 3 of the 10 most recent pre-Covid movies missed the mark)
AVATAR: 0 Avatar movies have made $100M OW

(BATMAN: Technicality but the second to last Batman-fronted movie opened to $93M)

MINIONS: 3/4 Minions movies opened lower than $100M

 

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by ViewerAnon

[grey ghost]

7 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

I'm home alone and bored and none of this matters but I just can't help myself:

 

MCU: 5 of the last 10 MCU movies didn't hit $100M OW (and 3 of the 10 most recent pre-Covid movies missed the mark)
AVATAR: 0 Avatar movies have made $100M OW

(BATMAN: Technicality but the second to last Batman-fronted movie opened to $93M)

MINIONS: 3/4 Minions movies opened lower than $100M

 

 

 

 

Just looking at this year...

 

Strange 2, Thor 2, BP2 could all hit 100 m OW.

 

Minions 2 got a shot.

 

Avatar 2 is guaranteed at 100m OW. The first one was a sleeper hit.

 

[ZeeSoh]

11 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

I'm home alone and bored and none of this matters but I just can't help myself:

 

MCU: 5 of the last 10 MCU movies didn't hit $100M OW (and 3 of the 10 most recent pre-Covid movies missed the mark)
AVATAR: 0 Avatar movies have made $100M OW

(BATMAN: Technicality but the second to last Batman-fronted movie opened to $93M)

MINIONS: 3/4 Minions movies opened lower than $100M

 

 

Was gonna reply to the post myself, but you got there first. 
 

Btw a correction 4 not 5 of the last 10 McU movies have missed the mark (AM&TW, BW, SC and Eternals). And 2 out of 10 pre covid movies missed that mark, not 3 (AM&TW and DS1)

 

But I think what he meant to say was going forward those ip’s will not miss 100m which is why he included Avatar. If that is to be the criteria then I think there is a good chance that no MCU movie misses the 100m mark. 

[dudalb]

I guess the FB fans will begin the grieving process now, of which the first stage is usually denial.

[wildphantom]

30 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

 

Just looking at this year...

 

Strange 2, Thor 2, BP2 could all hit 100 m OW.

 

Minions 2 got a shot.

 

Avatar 2 is guaranteed at 100m OW. The first one was a sleeper hit.

 

Could? Strange 2 could hit $100 million in one day, never mind the weekend. 

[PDC1987]

I'm convinced this entire thread is satire.

 

What is wrong with Sonic's 2nd Friday drop? It's a sequel AND an adaptation! FB3 and Midbius would have both tanked pre-pandemic. They're garbage and FB3 is following a poorly received film. The "writing has been on the wall" regarding theaters? Where? A $15 million film about a dog just topped $60 million domestically.

[krla]

34 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Avatar 2 is guaranteed at 100m OW. The first one was a sleeper hit.

The first one wasn't a sleeper. Everyone wanted to see it in 3D, and only about 10% of screens were 3D at that time (most transitioning specifically for this film). 80% of Avatar's revenue came from those limited screens, which is why they had such long legs. Ticket prices were 2-3x the price for 3D compared to regular theaters (in China, tickets were selling for $50,  because there were even fewer 3D screens, and western movies only stick around a short time; demand was super high). 

 

If Avatar 2 doesn't have a 'gimmick' that draws people and raises ticket prices, I don't see how it does anywhere near as well as the first. The original Avatar has essentially no cultural relevance, most people couldn't tell you the name of a character, or quote any of the lines, nor do they really care. The movie is basically as impactful as a nature documentary done in 3D. I don't think I've seen anybody make a reference to that film since 2010. Even on social media, I barely see more than a dozen likes on Avatar 2 promotions, inside "exclusive" looks, etc. 

[Grebacio]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

The top 5 IP's that guarantee 100m OW...

 

MCU
Jurassic World
Avatar
Batman
Minions?

Top 5 IP's that need to recover..

 

Harry Potter
Star Wars/Pixar
DCEU
Fast & Furious
Transformers

Does Fast and Furious need to recover? It's still doing impressive numbers

[Joyous Legion]

People were talking about this 4 week corridor being oversaturated with big releases, but in reality they’ve only…. provided 4 of the year’s top 6 OW 🤔

[filmnerdjamie]

Uh no. Avatar was not a sleeper hit. What. So. Ever.

 

[grey ghost]

27 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Does Fast and Furious need to recover? It's still doing impressive numbers

 

It seems it may be on a downward trajectory after peaking.

[Joyous Legion]

Regarding 100M, we are very near (maybe already at) the point where the only MCU films to miss a modern day equivalent of 100M are ant-men and the 2021 clunkers. Avatar and Batman Begins easily get there, as well as JL and of course the 20th century bat flicks. Minions I don’t know the OWs and don’t feel like looking it up, but not sold that minions 2 will hit it so seems like a dubious include.    
 

100M doesn’t take that many tickets anymore — like 16M+ back when Spider-man did it, now or soon can get there with less than 8M. And you’ve practically got 4 days instead of 3. 

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Uh no. Avatar was not a sleeper hit. What. So. Ever.

 

 

Avatar was one of the backloaded movies in recent history.

 

I think a frontloaded movie is the opposite of a sleeper hit.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Avatar was one of the backloaded movies in recent history.

 

I think a frontloaded movie is the opposite of a sleeper hit.

 

Eh the term "sleeper hit" i believe is more used in the context of smaller movies (with small OW's) having really good legs. For example something like The Blair Witch Project.

 

Avatar though started really big (People forget that its OW back in 2009 was the biggest ever for an original film) and then had really good legs but its number were far too big from the start to be a "sleeper hit" if that makes sense.

[grey ghost]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Eh the term "sleeper hit" i believe is more used in the context of smaller movies (with small OW's) having really good legs. For example something like The Blair Witch Project.

 

Avatar though started really big (People forget that its OW back in 2009 was the biggest ever for an original film) and then had really good legs but its number were far too big from the start to be a "sleeper hit" if that makes sense.

 

 

I guess what I meant was Avatar didn't open like a 760 million dollar record breaking movie.

 

It opened like a 275 million dollar movie.

[filmnerdjamie]

16 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Avatar was one of the backloaded movies in recent history.

 

I think a frontloaded movie is the opposite of a sleeper hit.

 

It opened pretty big to $77M. The fact that it held like glue doesn't make it a sleeper hit.

 

A sleeper success applies to a film that opens small and builds up momentum/legs. That's not what happened with Avatar. 

[Flamengo81]

54 minutes ago, krla said:

The first one wasn't a sleeper. Everyone wanted to see it in 3D, and only about 10% of screens were 3D at that time (most transitioning specifically for this film). 80% of Avatar's revenue came from those limited screens, which is why they had such long legs. Ticket prices were 2-3x the price for 3D compared to regular theaters (in China, tickets were selling for $50,  because there were even fewer 3D screens, and western movies only stick around a short time; demand was super high). 

 

If Avatar 2 doesn't have a 'gimmick' that draws people and raises ticket prices, I don't see how it does anywhere near as well as the first. The original Avatar has essentially no cultural relevance, most people couldn't tell you the name of a character, or quote any of the lines, nor do they really care. The movie is basically as impactful as a nature documentary done in 3D. I don't think I've seen anybody make a reference to that film since 2010. Even on social media, I barely see more than a dozen likes on Avatar 2 promotions, inside "exclusive" looks, etc. 

" The original Avatar has essentially no cultural relevance" 
This argument is getting really old and will be prove to be absolute nonsense when this thing does billions at the box office. Avatar 2 just being the sequel to the highest grossing movie of all time that most people loved to see in Cinema will be enough. This "cultural relevance" argument is extremely overrated when talking about box office.