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Eric Furiosa

2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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On 2/18/2023 at 12:04 AM, kayumanggi said:

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $91.9 M | M3GAN

02 | $31.4 M | PLANE

03 | $28.0 M | 80 FOR BRADY

04 | $27.8 M | MISSING

05 | $26.0 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

 

06 | $15.9 M | PATHAAN

07 | $11.9 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

08 | $09.7 M | TITANIC

09 | $09.0 M | HOUSE PARTY

10 | $08.1 M | BTS: YET TO COME IN CINEMAS

 

11 | $05.5 M | THE CHOSEN SEASON III FINALE

12 | $04.9 M | INFINITY POOL
13 | $04.6 M | THE WANDERING EARTH II

14 | $03.6 M | LEFT BEHIND: RISE OF THE ANTICHRIST

15 | $02.8 M | THE AMAZING MAURICE

 

---

 

DISNEY

LIONSGATE

PARAMOUNT

SONY

UNIVERSAL

WARNER BROS.

OTHERS

 

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $120.4 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

02 | $093.7 M | M3GAN

03 | $033.2 M | 80 FOR BRADY

04 | $031.9 M | PLANE

05 | $031.1 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

 

06 | $030.0 M | MISSING

07 | $018.8 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

08 | $016.9 M | PATHAAN

09 | $013.1 M | TITANIC

10 | $009.0 M | HOUSE PARTY

 

11 | $008.1 M | BTS: YET TO COME IN CINEMAS

12 | $005.5 M | THE CHOSEN SEASON III FINALE

13 | $005.1 M | INFINITY POOL
14 | $004.7 M | THE WANDERING EARTH II

15 | $003.6 M | LEFT BEHIND: RISE OF THE ANTICHRIST

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

2 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

6 - OTHERS

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On 1/30/2023 at 1:32 PM, stripe said:

 

Final January 2023 cumulative gross will be around 580M.

 

So happy to see that it will outgross my predictions! M3gan, Plane, A man called Otto & Missing overperformed. Avatar 2 and Puss in Boots also held better than expected. Solid start for 2023.
 

Let's guess about February (trying to be conservative)

Openers (around 400M)

The Chosen: 15M

Knock at the cabin: 50M
80 for Brady: 40M
Magic Mike Last Dance: 35M

Titanic: 25M

Marlowe: 5M

Ant Man Quantumania: 200M
Cocaine bear: 15M

Jesus Revolution: 10M
 

Holdovers (around 150M)
Avatar2: 50M

Puss in Boots: 40M

A man called Otto: 15M
M3gan: 10M
Rest: 30M

 

Around 550M for February 2023. Great news if it crosses 600M. Last year the gross was 365M.

 

Two days to close February and the cumulative gross is at around 480M, so 50M under my predictions. Some films slightly underperformed (AMQ, MMLD, Knock at the Cabin) and not many good surprises.
Still, over February 2022.

 

Let's predict March. I will try to be conservative.

 

Openers (around 395M)
Creed 3: 90M

Demos Slayer: 15M

Operation Fortune: 10M

Scream 6: 90M

65: 30M

Champions: 15M

Shazam!: 70M

John Wick 4: 55M

Dungeons & Dragons: 10M

Good Person: 5M

Other openers: 15M

 

Holdovers (around 160M)

AMQ: 50M

Cocaine Bear: 35M

Jesus Revolution: 40M

Avatar 2: 10M

Puss in Boots 2: 10M

Rest: 15M

 

Cumulative gross for March: 550M. A bit under 589M grossed in March 2022, when The Batman exploded.

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7 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

2023 has now crossed $1B with $1,066,939,876.

 

YTD comparission
+45.5% from 2022 gross to date: 734,256,215

-26.8% from 2020 gross to date: 1,458,642,634

 

Very happy with every small victory, but there is still a long road to walk.

 

 

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On 2/23/2023 at 4:43 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Feb 17 - 20 / $166,875,843

2022 / Feb 18 - 21 / $111,455,709

 

2023 / Feb 17 - 19 / $144,939,605

2022 / Feb 18 - 20 / $94,583,877

 

WINS

2023: 6 weekends

2022: 1 weekend

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Feb 24 - 26 / $93,701,450

2022 / Feb 25 - 27 / $60,906,460

 

WINS

2023: 7 weekends

2022: 1 weekend

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On 2/23/2023 at 4:52 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $120.4 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

02 | $093.7 M | M3GAN

03 | $033.2 M | 80 FOR BRADY

04 | $031.9 M | PLANE

05 | $031.1 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

 

06 | $030.0 M | MISSING

07 | $018.8 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

08 | $016.9 M | PATHAAN

09 | $013.1 M | TITANIC

10 | $009.0 M | HOUSE PARTY

 

11 | $008.1 M | BTS: YET TO COME IN CINEMAS

12 | $005.5 M | THE CHOSEN SEASON III FINALE

13 | $005.1 M | INFINITY POOL
14 | $004.7 M | THE WANDERING EARTH II

15 | $003.6 M | LEFT BEHIND: RISE OF THE ANTICHRIST

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

2 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

6 - OTHERS

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $168.8 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

02 | $094.6 M | M3GAN

03 | $036.7 M | 80 FOR BRADY

04 | $034.0 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

05 | $032.1 M | PLANE

 

06 | $031.5 M | MISSING

07 | $024.9 M | COCAINE BEAR

08 | $023.3 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

09 | $017.3 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

10 | $017.2 M | PATHAAN

 

11 | $014.5 M | TITANIC

12 | $009.0 M | HOUSE PARTY

13 | $008.1 M | BTS: YET TO COME IN CINEMAS

14 | $005.5 M | THE CHOSEN SEASON III FINALE

15 | $005.1 M | INFINITY POOL

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

2 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

3 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

4 - OTHERS

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7 hours ago, poweranimals said:

So nothing will even pass any of the top 7 of 2022? 😐

 

Yet the year will easily outgross 2022, so better news for the industry.

Anyways, I expect something surprising to 400M+ DOM territory.

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With Aquaman 2 postproduction problems and the lack of any news of new Ghostbusters, I feel there could still be place for a couple of major tentpoles in 2023 Christmas.

Maybe a 2024 first quarter movie?

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3 minutes ago, stripe said:

With Aquaman 2 postproduction problems and the lack of any news of new Ghostbusters, I feel there could still be place for a couple of major tentpoles in 2023 Christmas.

Maybe a 2024 first quarter movie?

I'd say move Dune to Christmas if Aquaman somehow misses that date (Part One would've opened in December 2020 if not for COVID) but WB isn't going to release two Chalamet-led aspiring blockbusters (Wonka being the other) so close to each other. The fourth quarter schedule is bound to see a shake up as soon as studios begin to realize how barren it is for the most part, especially now that The Marvels left the summer for the holidays.

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